Markets still falling like whoa

[Dnaguy 12,629]

I know that we’ve discussed this multiple times here, but the market is completely divorced from reality.

i don’t want to lose money, but Im now kind of actively rooting for another crash here.

Why?

People need to be taught a lesson. This market fundamentally punishes actual investing and incentivizes recklessness. There is no fear. If we all come out of this without any real ‘punishment’ then I’m afraid of the future.

The Chinese and US are escalating tensions. Crickets. Increasing cases. Crickets. 

and yes, I know. It’s already priced in and stocks only go up.

Edited July 13, 2020 by Dnaguy

[Hefeweizen 5,444]

7 trillion in brrrrrr seems like a lot.  Is it a lot?  Does it matter?

[Anastasis 23,718]

3 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Does it matter?

[HouTex 1,942]

I know that we’ve discussed this multiple times here, but the market is completely divorced from reality.
i don’t want to lose money, but Im now kind of actively rooting for another crash here.
Why?
People need to be taught a lesson. This market fundamentally punishes actual investing and incentivizes recklessness. There is no fear. If we all come out of this without any real ‘punishment’ then I’m afraid of the future.
The Chinese and US are escalating tensions. Crickets. Increasing cases. Crickets. 
and yes, I know. It’s already priced in and stocks only go up.

A lot of people were taught a lesson when the Dow hit bottom in the 1Q this year and thought they had to sell and didn’t get back in or got back in recently and missed some upside. Many here are trying to time every spike and pull back. Good luck with that over the long haul. Unless you are within five years or so from retirement just invest in several good mutual funds and leave them alone except for the occasional rebalancing.

[bernorange 8,385]

1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

....  and yes, I know. It’s already priced in and stocks only go up.

This is the issue with the Fed guaranteeing backstops.  Moral hazard.  The worse shit gets in the real world, the happier investors are because the Fed will be forced to brrt and bailout.

Quote

...
“COVID-19 is now inversely related to the markets. The worse that COVID-19 gets, the better the markets do because the Fed will bring in stimulus. That is what has been driving markets,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance.
...

More:  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-federalreserve-mar/federal-reserves-3-trillion-virus-rescue-inflates-market-bubbles-idUSKCN24E13G

[Sbbruin 22,143]

49 minutes ago, HouTex said:

A lot of people were taught a lesson when the Dow hit bottom in the 1Q this year and thought they had to sell and didn’t get back in or got back in recently and missed some upside. Many here are trying to time every spike and pull back. Good luck with that over the long haul. Unless you are within five years or so from retirement just invest in several good mutual funds and leave them alone except for the occasional rebalancing.

That's me.  I took massive hits in Q1/2, but just sitting tight has led me back to a better place than when this started.  Don't ask me how the economy works.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

1 hour ago, HouTex said:

Unless you are within five years or so from retirement just invest in several good mutual funds and leave them alone except for the occasional rebalancing.

i fell asleep halfway through this sentence

[Tailgate 3,075]

30 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

That's me.  I took massive hits in Q1/2, but just sitting tight has led me back to a better place than when this started.  Don't ask me how the economy works.

Same. My vanguard funds have ‘over delivered’ during this pandemic. My foreign stock fund has gone nuts this year. My play account is up. I’ve been ready for the next hit but damn. TSLA.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,455]

NASDAQ is getting smoked since about noon.

Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

The Fed started tapering a few weeks ago.  We'll have to wait and see if the printer gets booted up in time to prevent another crash.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,455]

The day the Fed started tapering, $SPY closed at 323.41 then pulled back a bit.  Today it got up to 322.71 then went kersplat.

Anyone crazy enough to short here and put a stop at about $330?

[0xdeadbeef 1,699]

36 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

NASDAQ is getting smoked since about noon.

Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

What happened around 12:50pm this afternoon?  I don't see anything on the web that might have triggered the drop.  

[Fudge Nuggets 19,455]

JP Morgan's trading bot bitchslapped Goldman's trading bot.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,455]

8 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

What happened around 12:50pm this afternoon?  I don't see anything on the web that might have triggered the drop.  

Seems there is news that California is shutting down again.  Oops.

[Eastwood 4,394]

7 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

What happened around 12:50pm this afternoon?  I don't see anything on the web that might have triggered the drop.  

Around that time, I got a WSJ alert reporting that the US is about to reject various Chinese maritime claims in the South China Sea.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,455]

https://abc7.com/governor-newsom-update-today-gavin-press-conference-california-covid-19-coronavirus/6315327/

Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered several sectors to once again shut down Monday amid an increasingly concerning coronavirus surge.

RELATED: Here's everything allowed to open in CA (and what we're still waiting on)

 

Bars, both indoor and outdoor, will be forced to close down statewide. Restaurants are being told to cease indoor operations. Outdoor dining and takeout are still allowed.

All counties also have to close all indoor operations at wineries, tasting rooms, movie theaters, family entertainment centers, zoos, museums and cardrooms.

In counties on the state's watch list -- including Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties -- even more businesses are being required to close their doors. That includes gyms, hair salons, barbershops, other personal care services, indoor malls, offices in non-critical sectors, and places of worship.

Edited July 13, 2020 by Fudge Nuggets

[dcar00 14,963]

...

Edited July 13, 2020 by dcar00

[closetohumping 17,817]

Wtf market just dropped

[Sbbruin 22,143]

15 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

https://abc7.com/governor-newsom-update-today-gavin-press-conference-california-covid-19-coronavirus/6315327/

Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered several sectors to once again shut down Monday amid an increasingly concerning coronavirus surge.

RELATED: Here's everything allowed to open in CA (and what we're still waiting on)

 

Bars, both indoor and outdoor, will be forced to close down statewide. Restaurants are being told to cease indoor operations. Outdoor dining and takeout are still allowed.

All counties also have to close all indoor operations at wineries, tasting rooms, movie theaters, family entertainment centers, zoos, museums and cardrooms.

In counties on the state's watch list -- including Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties -- even more businesses are being required to close their doors. That includes gyms, hair salons, barbershops, other personal care services, indoor malls, offices in non-critical sectors, and places of worship.

Hair salons and barbershops.  Oof.  Son and I were gonna do this ove rthe weekend, but time slipped away.  Gonna have to go hippie again.

[Sbbruin 22,143]

Not to get all paycheck stubby, but damn if I didn't make, then lose, a lot of money today.  I try not to look so frequently, but I can't help myself.

[Dnaguy 12,629]

2 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

NASDAQ is getting smoked since about noon.

Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

 

[Harrison Stafford 3,392]

On 7/10/2020 at 3:14 PM, Harrison Stafford said:

ALT ended the day +2.08 at $22.30.  A 10% move.  I believe I can fly.

 

ALT ended the day +2.65 at $25.  An 11% move.  Shine on you crazy diamond.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,455]

1 hour ago, Sbbruin said:

Not to get all paycheck stubby, but damn if I didn't make, then lose, a lot of money today.  I try not to look so frequently, but I can't help myself.

I have a stock that has a sell order at $106.  Prior to the drop it got to $105.94.

It closed at $101 and change.  That’s an expensive six fucking cents.

[Harrison Stafford 3,392]

49 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I have a stock that has a sell order at $106.  Prior to the drop it got to $105.94.

It closed at $101 and change.  That’s an expensive six fucking cents.

Missed it by this much.

[Captainant 28,538]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/business/jpmorgan-earnings-jamie-dimon/index.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-citigroup-results/citigroup-quarterly-profit-tumbles-73-as-loan-loss-provisions-surge-idUSKCN24F1G4?il=0

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/wells-fargo-wfc-earnings-q2-2020.html

Big banks across the board starting to take it in the shorts. Wonder when the pain will start to trickle down

[52-80 19,377]

Got out of WFC on the last rise before earnings.  Opening some shorts on the other banks, starting with BAC

[Eastwood 4,394]

Do your DD first, folks, but just a reminder that Citigroup was 2nd to last, with WFC the only bank behind them, as far as outstanding vulnerable credit. Citi is the bank behind a lot of retail CCs. As soon as unemployment and PPP funds dry up, they might get hit real hard.

[Dnaguy 12,629]

24 minutes ago, Captainant said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/14/business/jpmorgan-earnings-jamie-dimon/index.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-citigroup-results/citigroup-quarterly-profit-tumbles-73-as-loan-loss-provisions-surge-idUSKCN24F1G4?il=0

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/14/wells-fargo-wfc-earnings-q2-2020.html

Big banks across the board starting to take it in the shorts. Wonder when the pain will start to trickle down

But it wasn't as bad as it could have been so now the market is up!

 

We're all rich!

[Trey3216 15,452]

6 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

Do your DD first, folks, but just a reminder that Citigroup was 2nd to last, with WFC the only bank behind them, as far as outstanding vulnerable credit. Citi is the bank behind a lot of retail CCs. As soon as unemployment and PPP funds dry up, they might get hit real hard.

Yep, which in turn will turn up the heat on the market as a whole.   
 

I am going to start buying VXX calls every week.  10% out of the money to start.  

[Fudge Nuggets 19,455]

VXX is the dumbest trading instrument ever conceived. I can’t imagine playing options on that piece of shit. 

[Anastasis 23,718]

14 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

VXX is the dumbest trading instrument ever conceived. I can’t imagine playing options on that piece of shit. 

Last time Trey mentioned VXX options, I took a flier on a small call position. That was Feb 20 or so.  You know the rest of that story. 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

52 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

 As soon as unemployment and PPP funds dry up, they might get hit real hard.

Yep, from that first link Capt posted:

Quote

 

JPMorgan executives said this recession is abnormal because of the high level of stimulus support from the government, which has helped raise Americans' personal income.

"May and June are really the easy months in terms of what this recovery will look like," Piepszak said on a call with reporters. The real damage, she said, would become evident in the coming months.

 

 

[52-80 19,377]

24 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

VXX is the dumbest trading instrument ever conceived. I can’t imagine playing options on that piece of shit. 

What's wrong with trading derivatives of a double-derivative?

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Last time Trey mentioned VXX options, I took a flier on a small call position. That was Feb 20 or so.  You know the rest of that story. 

 

52 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep, which in turn will turn up the heat on the market as a whole.   
 

I am going to start buying VXX calls every week.  10% out of the money to start.  

I'm no expert, but I've played around with call backspreads on VXX before.  You only lose if VXX trades flat, which is extremely rare.

https://www.theoptionsguide.com/call-backspread.aspx

[Wally Fairway 5,674]

30 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

VXX is the dumbest trading instrument ever conceived. I can’t imagine playing options on that piece of shit. 

good point
Immediately, I go and check out VXX and the options strings. Because #stonklife and what could go wrong. 

The "correct" way to play VXX options is a straddle, right? So you don't care if it goes up or down, just that it goes???

[Captainant 28,538]

I'm getting a big chunk of RSU's vesting tomorrow... I may change to sell for cash and take the balance as a hedge against the black clouds. 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

5 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

good point
Immediately, I go and check out VXX and the options strings. Because #stonklife and what could go wrong. 

The "correct" way to play VXX options is a straddle, right? So you don't care if it goes up or down, just that it goes???

I believe a straddle would be more expensive, but you would have access to gains on the down side.

[Sbbruin 22,143]

1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

But it wasn't as bad as it could have been so now the market is up!

 

We're all rich!

At what point (if ever) do I count my blessings and move everything to cash equivalents in anticipation of the next great collapse?  Honestly, it HAS to be coming, right?

Edited July 14, 2020 by Sbbruin

[Fudge Nuggets 19,455]

25 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Last time Trey mentioned VXX options, I took a flier on a small call position. That was Feb 20 or so.  You know the rest of that story. 

Or fill out the form for futures trading and buy /VX itself and cut out all the bullshit associated with VXX.

I’m not saying betting on increased volatility is a bad idea, but the instrument of choice matters.

Edited July 14, 2020 by Fudge Nuggets

[Dnaguy 12,629]

 

Yield curve control.

It's going to happen.

When unemployment remains > 10% and stocks continue to blow up, we are going to very much look like France circa 1789.

 

[Trey3216 15,452]

4 hours ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

 

I'm no expert, but I've played around with call backspreads on VXX before.  You only lose if VXX trades flat, which is extremely rare.

https://www.theoptionsguide.com/call-backspread.aspx

Just bought 50 VXX $35 strike weeklies for .78.   Also bought 10 for next Friday at 1.60.   

[Anastasis 23,718]

This market is stupid and poopy. 

[0xdeadbeef 1,699]

DJIA up 2% today.  I just don't understand. 

I have to assume that when the market correction comes, and I think it has to at some point, it's going to be a bloodbath. 

[tokamak 6,687]

4 hours ago, Sbbruin said:

At what point (if ever) do I count my blessings and move everything to cash equivalents in anticipation of the next great collapse?  Honestly, it HAS to be coming, right?

I moved about 25% of our total retirement to cash at S&P 2950. Don't be like me, I'm stupid.

[Trey3216 15,452]

8 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

DJIA up 2% today.  I just don't understand. 

I have to assume that when the market correction comes, and I think it has to at some point, it's going to be a bloodbath. 

It will be violent

[Harrison Stafford 3,392]

21 hours ago, Harrison Stafford said:

ALT ended the day +2.65 at $25.  An 11% move.  Shine on you crazy diamond.

ALT ended the day +4.03 at $29.03.  A 16% move.  If I come out the other side of the plague above ground, drinks are on me.

[HouTex 1,942]

My advisor talked me out of going to 1/2 cash when the Dow was around 21,000 and techs were just coming back. I was so happy they came up from the lows i thought it was time to lower my risk. Glad i stayed fully invested. I’m not saying we won’t see a correction, but if you sell you can’t possibly know when to get back in. Or you could sell and miss out on some near term upside. And some funds require you to wait 30 days to get back in. Other funds are closed to new money.

[Captainant 28,538]

3 minutes ago, HouTex said:

Other funds are closed to new money.

not to get too tea leaves-y, but I would think that funds turning down new investors (suckers) is a pretty good leading indicator of a contraction

[Blotto 24,019]

3 minutes ago, HouTex said:

My advisor talked me out of going to 1/2 cash when the Dow was around 21,000 and techs were just coming back. I was so happy they came up from the lows i thought it was time to lower my risk. Glad i stayed fully invested. I’m not saying we won’t see a correction, but if you sell you can’t possibly know when to get back in. Or you could sell and miss out on some near term upside. And some funds require you to wait 30 days to get back in. Other funds are closed to new money.

Yeah, you can hedge with puts on the indexes and not have to sell any stock. Thats what I did in Feb and started doing again this week. May also prune some stocks I'm just done with. 

[Anastasis 23,718]

Just now, Blotto said:

Yeah, you can hedge with puts on the indexes and not have to sell any stock. Thats what I did in Feb and started doing again this week. May also prune some stocks I'm just done with. 

Not enough dopamine involved.