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Markets still falling like whoa


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  On 7/14/2020 at 9:22 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

It can paper over your SOXS bloodbath.

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No joke.  My avg. is $22.81 and SOXS closed today at $4.68.  At this point, I don't dare sell because the market's more likely to make a move down than up ......I think.  Of course, I've thought that since the Dow was at 22,000.  ALT has bailed my ass out and then some.

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Looks like the other indices are starting to play catch up to the NASDAQ.  So far every day this week the NASDAQ has been the laggard between it, the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Russell.

Don't know if this means we're about to finally correct or this is just some consolidation ahead of the next NASDAQ parabolic move.  I'm thinking the latter because brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrttttt.

 

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  On 7/15/2020 at 12:11 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

Looks like the other indices are starting to play catch up to the NASDAQ.  So far every day this week the NASDAQ has been the laggard between it, the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Russell.

Don't know if this means we're about to finally correct or this is just some consolidation ahead of the next NASDAQ parabolic move.  I'm thinking the latter because brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrttttt.

 

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Value has lagged Growth in a dramatic fashion during this market rebound and I have to wonder if there will be a catch-up phase coming right now with a rotation amid profit taking.

The divergence of value stalwarts like VEIPX and VYM from growth funds like FBGRX is striking.

Long term I don't really care as things will balance out but in the short term it can be difficult to watch value assets under-perform while the market hums.  

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  On 7/15/2020 at 12:11 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

Looks like the other indices are starting to play catch up to the NASDAQ.  So far every day this week the NASDAQ has been the laggard between it, the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Russell.

Don't know if this means we're about to finally correct or this is just some consolidation ahead of the next NASDAQ parabolic move.  I'm thinking the latter because brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrttttt.

 

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pairs trade like brrr?

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I'm about to have to take the loss like a pussy. If this market is going to run based on just a piece of MRNA phase I results, they will be able to trickle out that sort of stuff for the next 3 months and keep goosing it.  The influx of cash into everything, GS printing money. Fuck it, reality based thinking put me on the wrong side of this train. 

So...expect a major correction after I dial down the shorting.  

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  On 7/15/2020 at 1:08 PM, Anastasis said:

I'm about to have to take the loss like a pussy. If this market is going to run based on just a piece of MRNA phase I results, they will be able to trickle out that sort of stuff for the next 3 months and keep goosing it.  The influx of cash into everything, GS printing money. Fuck it, reality based thinking put me on the wrong side of this train. 

So...expect a major correction after I dial down the shorting.  

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Over? Did you say over?
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?  Hell, no...
Nothing is over until we decide it is!
It isn't over now? Because when the going gets tough, the tough get going
What the fuck happened to the Surly I used to know? Where is the spirit, where are the guts?
This could be one of the greatest markets in your life, but you're gonna let it be the worst 
"Ooh, we're afraid to stick with it Wally, we might lose some money."
Well kiss my ass from now on!
 NOT ME! I'm not going to take it 
Powell is a dead man, Mnuchin dead, Cramer dead

Campcle 90s GIF - Campcle 90s Whiskey - Discover & Share GIFs

 

I meant I've got today and tomorrow for my 7/17 DIS $110 puts to come through

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  On 7/15/2020 at 1:08 PM, Anastasis said:

I'm about to have to take the loss like a pussy. If this market is going to run based on just a piece of MRNA phase I results, they will be able to trickle out that sort of stuff for the next 3 months and keep goosing it.  The influx of cash into everything, GS printing money. Fuck it, reality based thinking put me on the wrong side of this train. 

So...expect a major correction after I dial down the shorting.  

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Good point. There's like 80 groups worldwide working on vaccines. Every time one reports that their candidate is less toxic than cyanide in a study of n=4 mice, we're going to get a +2% pop in the market.

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  On 7/14/2020 at 8:11 PM, Trey3216 said:

Just bought 50 VXX $35 strike weeklies for .78.   Also bought 10 for next Friday at 1.60.   

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Probably doesn't matter much if you're playing weeklies, but have you looked at the term structure lately?

http://vixcentral.com/

Looks like the market is betting on things going to shit in October (Q3 earnings for the banks perhaps?)

 

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  On 7/15/2020 at 3:30 PM, Rusty Shackelford said:

Probably doesn't matter much if you're playing weeklies, but have you looked at the term structure lately?

http://vixcentral.com/

Looks like the market is betting on things going to shit in October (Q3 earnings for the banks perhaps?)

 

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Election run up volatility 

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  On 7/15/2020 at 1:01 PM, Reagan1k said:

Value has lagged Growth in a dramatic fashion during this market rebound and I have to wonder if there will be a catch-up phase coming right now with a rotation amid profit taking.

The divergence of value stalwarts like VEIPX and VYM from growth funds like FBGRX is striking.

Long term I don't really care as things will balance out but in the short term it can be difficult to watch value assets under-perform while the market hums.  

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I've been thinking about this lately as well. Grew frustrated and shifted some positions from value back to growth a little over a month ago, but am trying to decide when to shift back. Are you going to make your move now? 

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  Quote

 

The economy is tanking across the country, with layoffs and bankruptcies as far as the eye can see. But the richest sliver of the country continues to do quite well, thank you.

The latest evidence came Wednesday morning, as Goldman Sachs, the bluest of blue chip banks, said it's raking in money on Wall Street.

While other banks are warning about rising loan losses during the recession, Goldman, which tends to serve a higher-end clientele, is sounding a pretty optimistic note.

In fact, Goldman says it actually did better than expected, bringing in revenue of $13.3 billion, up 41% from a year ago — and its second-highest quarterly revenues ever.

It benefited from a record surge in trading of stocks and bonds, as well as profits from investment banking fees.

 

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animation GIF by Cheezburger

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/15/891318651/its-nice-to-be-rich-big-banks-are-raking-in-profits-in-the-stock-market

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At may age, I don't have the luxury of trying to time things and have never done it successfully anyway.  Took years, but I think I have finally had that instinct bludgeoned out of me.

I guess I'm content to stand pat and take the returns my allocation and the market gives me.  The most important financial move I've made in the last 5-10 years was to do nothing early this spring, not even look at my accounts, and trust my allocation to work over the long run.  My best thinking would have been to get out and try to catch a bottom which my experience shows me I would have certainly missed and then would have compounded mistake after mistake trying to get back to even.

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  On 7/20/2020 at 10:17 PM, Aqua Buddha said:

Saw something where that with AMZN’s big run up this year, Mackenzie Bezos is now the 12th richest person in the world.

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Whatever strange Jeff was getting, I can't imagine it was worth billions. I would have funneled the money to Elon Musk to develop a sex robot that didn't require alimony. 

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  On 7/21/2020 at 1:52 PM, Cheeseweasel said:

Whatever strange Jeff was getting, I can't imagine it was worth billions. I would have funneled the money to Elon Musk to develop a sex robot that didn't require alimony. 

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Dude made $18 billion dollars the other DAY. Probably got himself a "no ragrets" tattoo to celebrate. 

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Marketwatch has an article, using a tweet from Will Hershey, pointing out BRK.A/BRK.B have lost $90 billion in market cap this year (only big banks have lost more).
Which, as they point out in the article, is amazing since the biggest stock holding that Buffett has is AAPL, so the rest of his investments and controlled entities have lost even more.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-has-lost-more-market-value-in-2020-than-all-but-4-publicly-traded-us-companies-2020-07-20?mod=home-page

MW-IK805_chart__20200720131202_NS.jpg?uuid=2117850c-caac-11ea-983a-9c8e992d421e

Is this the death knells of the investing/marketing wizard of Omaha, or is this just the sleeping bear waiting for the market correction to put all his capital back to work?

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  On 7/21/2020 at 3:48 PM, Wally Fairway said:

Marketwatch has an article, using a tweet from Will Hershey, pointing out BRK.A/BRK.B have lost $90 billion in market cap this year (only big banks have lost more).
Which, as they point out in the article, is amazing since the biggest stock holding that Buffett has is AAPL, so the rest of his investments and controlled entities have lost even more.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-has-lost-more-market-value-in-2020-than-all-but-4-publicly-traded-us-companies-2020-07-20?mod=home-page

MW-IK805_chart__20200720131202_NS.jpg?uuid=2117850c-caac-11ea-983a-9c8e992d421e

Is this the death knells of the investing/marketing wizard of Omaha, or is this just the sleeping bear waiting for the market correction to put all his capital back to work?

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At his age he is not going to radically rethink his investing approach, which is based on value. In a market obscenely overvalued with the major indexes driven by a handful of stocks that are way, way, way overvalued, he is going to struggle to keep up. There is just no way he will invest in companies like TSLA, NFLX, etc... But he is still making money and growing that cash pile

If there is a reckoning, I suspect he will fair better than the indexes. If you are looking to make money, it helps to 1.) have money, and 2.) have connections. Few people have access to more of either than Buffet. We are in the early innings of this thing but if shit goes haywire, he can name his terms. And if I recall correctly he did just fine exiting the 98 on 08 crashes. Or he may kick the bucket before the next correction.. Either way, I'd rather invest in BRK long term than TSLA. 

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  On 7/21/2020 at 9:48 PM, GRHorn said:

The biggest exit scam ever. 

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I challenge you to justify the current market climates without using the word "stonks", because shit is violating basic principals of free markets right now. This is one hell of a bubble that is happening during the worst unemployment in modern history

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Hear me out for a minute.  The housing market is currently doing much of the same.  What if the decoupling of the segments of the economy is close to complete?  In other words, the working class is essentially just there watching through the window?  Because everyone I know is making money, no one has lost their job (except my wife who lost her temp gig with AISD), and cars, housing, groceries, and stocks are all going up in price.  
 

At some point the bill comes due but who pays? If the brrrrrr machine doesn’t stop I guess our kids  and grandkids?  Maybe a little CR but seriously wondering if things just have changed permanently in the stonk market. 

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  On 7/21/2020 at 10:50 PM, Hefeweizen said:

Hear me out for a minute.  The housing market is currently doing much of the same.  What if the decoupling of the segments of the economy is close to complete?  In other words, the working class is essentially just there watching through the window?  Because everyone I know is making money, no one has lost their job (except my wife who lost her temp gig with AISD), and cars, housing, groceries, and stocks are all going up in price.  
 

At some point the bill comes due but who pays? If the brrrrrr machine doesn’t stop I guess our kids  and grandkids?  Maybe a little CR but seriously wondering if things just have changed permanently in the stonk market. 

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We bomb our way out of it. 

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  On 7/21/2020 at 10:50 PM, Hefeweizen said:

Hear me out for a minute.  The housing market is currently doing much of the same.  What if the decoupling of the segments of the economy is close to complete?  In other words, the working class is essentially just there watching through the window?  Because everyone I know is making money, no one has lost their job (except my wife who lost her temp gig with AISD), and cars, housing, groceries, and stocks are all going up in price.  
 

At some point the bill comes due but who pays? If the brrrrrr machine doesn’t stop I guess our kids  and grandkids?  Maybe a little CR but seriously wondering if things just have changed permanently in the stonk market. 

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TINA and MMT imo

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  On 7/22/2020 at 12:05 PM, closetohumping said:

Brrtttt may be coming to a stop.  Yikes

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According to who?

Jpow and the crews are talking no interest for the next 2 years and yield curve. 
That’s like perma-brrtttt for the foreseeable future.

The only thing that’s going to stop this party is China / China trade tensions. 
And the market also knows that Trump will ultimately do whatever is in his power to dilute, water-down, and rescind any action that might cause the market to dip as a result of China action. 

So here we are. 
Moral Hazard has become the law of the land.

Housing prices going up, tech stocks are now stonks, and we print ourselves out of this and every subsequent crisis will be met by printing cash.

It can’t fail. Literally, it can’t fail because if it did, we’d be living in that Kevin Costner film where Tom Petty is a tribal leader.... The Postman.

 

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  On 7/22/2020 at 12:41 PM, Cheeseweasel said:

This. If history tells us anything, the way out of depressions/recessions is to crank up the War Machine. 

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But our war machine has been cranked up for 80 years. I suspect anastasis was talking about defending our currency, a truly irresponsible reason to kill, but undoubtedly not the worst justification we've used. 

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