Markets still falling like whoa

[dcar00 14904]

1 minute ago, Wally Fairway said:

 

 

you do realize we are talking about investments in companies, not countries - right
because there are winners and losers, and within those groups there are big winners and little winners and big losers and little losers

(btw - history tells me that being the greatest at anything is not a permanent thing - a number of countries have been considered the greatest, but then something happens and they aren't)

dude, have a little fun every now and then..

Edited August 27, 2020 by dcar00

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

13 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

you do realize we are talking about investments in companies, not countries - right

Very true. But when those companies are "supported" by free money, the game is a bit rigged. Don't care, joined the game long ago and have reaped the benefits.

[B00M 6725]

 

This guy controls the BRRRRRT machine? This should end well.

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

He's gonna drink that sanitizer in front of him. He'll be fine.

[dcar00 14904]

17 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

He's gonna drink that sanitizer in front of him. He'll be fine.

with a bleach chaser.

[Continental Op 3934]

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

Stock Market Alert - Stock Market Alert!!!!

Figured I should give everyone a heads up that I've gone all in on playing the momentum ride of the market - I'm out of my puts, and have started to play with calls to goose the returns. 
There is no more a certain indicator that the market has peaked then me deciding to speculate into the market rising. Full disclosure, I started to buy some calls in early June, because I was so pissed that my puts were turning into dogs. 
Long-term I still believe there is a correction coming, but I can't guess when or what will be the trigger - so until it is on the horizon I'm gonna ride the wave, and then hopefully switch back when the tides change, but I'll likely get sucked into the maelstrom once that wave crashes.

 

So that's what happened to SPY. 

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

1 minute ago, Continental Op said:

So that's what happened to SPY. 

I'm tellin ya. The Reverse Wally Fairway ETF would KILL!

[Superhero 8990]

I'm looking to diversify my brokerage portfolio. My portfolio is HEAVY in tech - AAPL, AMZN, GOOG and a bit of BRK.B (which is 50% in AAPL). I also have SBUX, VOO (again heavy in the above mentioned stocks) and a balanced mutual fund. The past 6 months have been awesome!

FWIW, in my overall portfolio, I also have a target date mutual fund, precious metals, and an annuity account making probably 0%.

My parents' brokerage account is almost the as mine sans the precious metals annuity account.

I'm looking to diversify and go for some dividend paying stocks. Maybe FDX, IBM, MMM. These are sound companies that retail investors will probably hold on to. What say you unwashed masses? Any other suggestions?

 

Edited August 27, 2020 by Superhero

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

Look at some of the energy stocks that pay nice dividends (ED/DUKE/DO) or consumables (3M) or Tele (VZ/T)

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

But when I think "diversify" I rarely think of individual stocks. I've moved about 15% of my tech portfolio into FSPSX (international) and about 35% into Total Stock Market (FSKAX), 15% in bonds, 10% cash, the rest in FLGEX and individual stocks (FAANG)

[TwiceHorn 31987]

3 minutes ago, Superhero said:

I'm looking to diversify my brokerage portfolio. My portfolio is HEAVY in tech - AAPL, AMZN, GOOG and a bit of BRK.B (which is 50% in AAPL). I also have SBUX, VOO (again heavy in the above mentioned stocks) and a balanced mutual fund. The past 6 months have been awesome!

FWIW, in my overall portfolio, I also have a target date mutual fund, precious metals, and an annuity account making probably 0%.

My parents' brokerage account is almost the as mine sans the precious metals annuity account.

I'm looking to diversify and go for some dividend paying stocks. Maybe FDX, IBM, MMM. These are sound companies that retail investors will probably hold on to. What say you unwashed masses? Any other suggestions?

 

While those are certainly "tech" stocks, it's unclear to me whether the usual or past "tech" caveats apply.  At some point, those are just considered large blue chips. I don't know that there's a "sector event" like the dotcom crash that will tank those stocks.

[Llano Estacado 1257]

Yeah was going to say to diversify may look at a large cap ETF. I own some ishares HDV which may be what you’re looking for large cap with dividend, but it has been dogging a lot lately lcompared to some other Dividend ETFs mutual funds offered.

 

Just check ratios and find which one has the most JNJ or MMM or whatever your looking for.

 

ETA: lulz, Proshares S&P 500 offering is “Aristocrats” (DVY)

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

While those are certainly "tech" stocks, it's unclear to me whether the usual or past "tech" caveats apply.  At some point, those are just considered large blue chips. I don't know that there's a "sector event" like the dotcom crash that will tank those stocks.

Yeah, I get sick of people comparing this to the Tech Bubble. Most of those companies had zero revenue and very little more than a ".com" behind their business plan. Yeah, there is some "irrational exuberance" going on, but these are solid companies that won't go away anytime soon.

[Wally Fairway 5664]

13 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I'm tellin ya. The Reverse Wally Fairway ETF would KILL!

Only costs $9.95/month and I will email you my moves at least 1 hour before the trades are made!

[Incredulity 11861]

2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Yeah, I get sick of people comparing this to the Tech Bubble. Most of those companies had zero revenue and very little more than a ".com" behind their business plan. Yeah, there is some "irrational exuberance" going on, but these are solid companies that won't go away anytime soon.

Memories.

 I vividly recall Thankgiving of 99.  One of my parents good friends spent the evening telling me that he wasn't doing HVAC work anymore from his long time small HVAC contracting company, but that everyone was online day trading .com companies.  He was back doing HVAC installs by '01

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

1 minute ago, Wally Fairway said:

Only costs $9.95/month and I will email you my moves at least 1 hour before the trades are made!

How are those White Collar Prisons these days?

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

32 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Memories.

 I vividly recall Thankgiving of 99.  One of my parents good friends spent the evening telling me that he wasn't doing HVAC work anymore from his long time small HVAC contracting company, but that everyone was online day trading .com companies.  He was back doing HVAC installs by '01

Their kids are back. Robinhood is full of Apple Millionaires. 

[Wally Fairway 5664]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I'm tellin ya. The Reverse Wally Fairway ETF would KILL!

This market is so strong, even the Fairway Curse was overcome in a matter of hours.

Edited August 27, 2020 by Wally Fairway

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

1 minute ago, Wally Fairway said:

This market is so strong, even the Fairway Curse was overcome in a matter of hours.

We have two very strong opposing forces working against each other. This is going to re-write history.

[Superhero 8990]

2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Memories.

 I vividly recall Thankgiving of 99.  One of my parents good friends spent the evening telling me that he wasn't doing HVAC work anymore from his long time small HVAC contracting company, but that everyone was online day trading .com companies.  He was back doing HVAC installs by '01

Yeah my ex-fiance's dad lost a ton of money in the dot com crash. He was a complete ass to me, so... yay.

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

1 hour ago, Superhero said:

Yeah my ex-fiance's dad lost a ton of money in the dot com crash. He was a complete ass to me, so... yay.

[Celery Man 21076]

It can be hard to diversify away from AAPL if you continue to hold AAPL.

[B00M 6725]

4 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

But when I think "diversify" I rarely think of individual stocks. I've moved about 15% of my tech portfolio into FSPSX (international) and about 35% into Total Stock Market (FSKAX), 15% in bonds, 10% cash, the rest in FLGEX and individual stocks (FAANG)

I'm trying to find the catch with 0 exp ratio funds like FZROX... 

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

14 hours ago, B00M said:

I'm trying to find the catch with 0 exp ratio funds like FZROX... 

It's a good plan.

[52-80 19379]

15 hours ago, Celery Man said:

It can be hard to diversify away from AAPL if you continue to hold AAPL.

sell covered calls , brutha. 

 

if it doesnt go anywhere, you collect premium. 

if it goes up (but not quickly enough), you collect premiums, and the gains. 

if it goes down --- which might have trigger you to sell off the stock -- you collect the premium, and sell off the stock like you would have anyway

[BevoSwag 272]

@Wally Fairway I am a novice in option markets.  Back in May I bought 3 Nov 15 puts (Leaps).  My thinking was the credit industry was going to hell with the financial crisis.  I wasn't aware the Fed was going to bomb the nation from shore to shore to shore with dollars.  My loss today stands at 92%.  Your strategy on Index Leaps is probably better than select stocks.

Edited August 28, 2020 by BevoSwag

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

15 minutes ago, BevoSwag said:

My loss today stands at 92%

[hornmpa96 2652]

7 hours ago, 52-80 said:

sell covered calls , brutha. 

 

if it doesnt go anywhere, you collect premium. 

if it goes up (but not quickly enough), you collect premiums, and the gains. 

if it goes down --- which might have trigger you to sell off the stock -- you collect the premium, and sell off the stock like you would have anyway

There's a fourth alternative which always seems to happen to me - It quickly jumps up after a month or 2 of selling covered calls and you lose the appreciation.

[52-80 19379]

22 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

There's a fourth alternative which always seems to happen to me - It quickly jumps up after a month or 2 of selling covered calls and you lose the appreciation.

happned to me with microsoft.  have an open call at 225.  im sure it'll back down.  but i can always close the position for less money than the loss on appreciation..so still a net gain

[bluto 4980]

Regarding the dividend chat above, can somebody tell me why i shouldn't put $ into DIV? 

And what's the scoop on CEF's? I just learned of their existence recently. 

[B00M 6725]

On 8/29/2020 at 8:48 PM, bluto said:

Regarding the dividend chat above, can somebody tell me why i shouldn't put $ into DIV? 

And what's the scoop on CEF's? I just learned of their existence recently. 

South Austin's mom puts money into FSDIX

 

Edited August 31, 2020 by B00M
Fixed for accuracy

[Eastwood 4394]

Poking my head in again to remind everyone that GME currently has OVER %100 short interest outstanding and is showing a decent 12% spike this morning. To put that into perspective, there are more shares borrowed to short than there are actual shares in existence. A lot of that short interest was accumulated when the stock was around $5 a share, so a bunch of people are underwater with their shorts. It is currently sitting at $6.8, right now, with earnings coming on 9/9 and a new round of consoles coming this holiday season, which will push numbers up further the following quarter. If pre-orders for the new consoles begin before the earnings call, those preliminary numbers would certainly be reported during the earnings call, which could also send the price higher. If a bunch of people get margin called over it, it could be a short squeeze of VW/Porsche proportions. There is absolutely zero, literally zero, share liquidity to cover a cascade of shorts being margin called.

[BLKNSTY 289]

Poking my head in again to remind everyone that GME currently has OVER %100 short interest outstanding and is showing a decent 12% spike this morning. To put that into perspective, there are more shares borrowed to short than there are actual shares in existence. A lot of that short interest was accumulated when the stock was around $5 a share, so a bunch of people are underwater with their shorts. It is currently sitting at $6.8, right now, with earnings coming on 9/9 and a new round of consoles coming this holiday season, which will push numbers up further the following quarter. If pre-orders for the new consoles begin before the earnings call, those preliminary numbers would certainly be reported during the earnings call, which could also send the price higher. If a bunch of people get margin called over it, it could be a short squeeze of VW/Porsche proportions. There is absolutely zero, literally zero, share liquidity to cover a cascade of shorts being margin called.

I read somewhere the CEO of Chewy just got a seat on the board of GME too. Internet sales is his specialty.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Eastwood 4394]

3 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

I read somewhere the CEO of Chewy just got a seat on the board of GME too. Internet sales is his specialty.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Today's spike is because the co-founder of Chewy, Ryan Cohen, revealed that he owns 5.8 million shares, which equals about 9% ownership of GameStop, in his 13D filing.

[bluto 4980]

None of this shit matters when everybody’s trading platforms are fucked

[52-80 19379]

schwab website doesnt work today

[Blotto 23974]

47 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

Poking my head in again to remind everyone that GME currently has OVER %100 short interest outstanding and is showing a decent 12% spike this morning. To put that into perspective, there are more shares borrowed to short than there are actual shares in existence. A lot of that short interest was accumulated when the stock was around $5 a share, so a bunch of people are underwater with their shorts. It is currently sitting at $6.8, right now, with earnings coming on 9/9 and a new round of consoles coming this holiday season, which will push numbers up further the following quarter. If pre-orders for the new consoles begin before the earnings call, those preliminary numbers would certainly be reported during the earnings call, which could also send the price higher. If a bunch of people get margin called over it, it could be a short squeeze of VW/Porsche proportions. There is absolutely zero, literally zero, share liquidity to cover a cascade of shorts being margin called.

There does appear to be some catalysts for a short squeeze that are interesting, but  for the life of me  I can't figure out why GME needs to be around at all now that gaming is migrating to pretty much a download/streaming environment. Console sales are available through every ecommerce platform (Amazon, BestBuy, etc....) and probably direct from microsoft and sony. GME seems analogous to blockbuster to me. What can they offer that is unique to their customer base? I'm asking because I really don't know. I look at their 5 year revenue and profit trends and they are pretty ugly. That being said, I could see throwing some money at OTM Jan calls and hoping to flip those back into some puts when the short squeeze is over. But that would be more of a Stonk thread gamble.

  

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

6 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

schwab website doesnt work today

Outstanding. SHORT EVVVVERYYYTHING

[Eastwood 4394]

11 minutes ago, Blotto said:

There does appear to be some catalysts for a short squeeze that are interesting, but  for the life of me  I can't figure out why GME needs to be around at all now that gaming is migrating to pretty much a download/streaming environment. Console sales are available through every ecommerce platform (Amazon, BestBuy, etc....) and probably direct from microsoft and sony. GME seems analogous to blockbuster to me. What can they offer that is unique to their customer base? I'm asking because I really don't know. I look at their 5 year revenue and profit trends and they are pretty ugly. That being said, I could see throwing some money at OTM Jan calls and hoping to flip those back into some puts when the short squeeze is over. But that would be more of a Stonk thread gamble.

  

The bull argument for the holiday season is that there are not enough retailers to meet the demand for the new consoles and launch titles coming out, so GameStop still serves a purpose there. In the meantime, they have been shuttering stores to reduce overhead and expanding their business to niche collectibles, such as retro gaming clothing, figurines, etc. The writing was on the wall for their used game business model when digital downloads started becoming prominent, but instead of doubling down they are actually slowly shedding that side of the business and putting less emphasis on used games and using those resources to slowly build a better online presence. It also gives them more wiggle room to offer more competitive deals. For example, they were churning out better online deals than Amazon in April.

What they do after the holiday season will be their make or break, in my opinion. The Chewy co-founder having a significant share of the company, and supposedly having a significant voice, has apparently given investors some confidence this morning. They have the inventory, especially since they are shuttering stores. All they really need is an overhaul of their online presence and Cohen has proven he has the know-how to make that happen.

Also, full disclosure, I have some long shares and I bought OTM calls this morning. I'm up 10% on the shares and time will tell on the calls.

Edited August 31, 2020 by Eastwood

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

5 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

What they do after the holiday season will be their make or break, in my opinion.

They are dead, regardless. The crappy merchandise they sell (Pop's, T-shirts. etc.) can be bought online cheaper. Most games are digital now vs. disk. Their world changed and they didn't have the ability or flexibility to change. Fuck 'em.

[TwiceHorn 31987]

On 8/27/2020 at 12:11 PM, Cheeseweasel said:

Yeah, I get sick of people comparing this to the Tech Bubble. Most of those companies had zero revenue and very little more than a ".com" behind their business plan. Yeah, there is some "irrational exuberance" going on, but these are solid companies that won't go away anytime soon.

The one caveat to this might be an antitrust investigation or suit.  Probably would affect those more entangled with online services than the hardware/software plays, i.e. Alphabet and Amazon more than Apple and Microsoft. 

[B00M 6725]

1 hour ago, Blotto said:

GME seems analogous to blockbuster to me. What can they offer that is unique to their customer base? I'm asking because I really don't know. 

Face to face incredibly shitty customer service! Oh and used games too, I guess. But Game Over (currently only in Texas and Washington) is better at that than gamestop in my experience, so a blockbuster fate sounds about right.

[B00M 6725]

1 hour ago, Eastwood said:

... GameStop still serves a purpose there. In the meantime, they have been shuttering stores to reduce overhead ...

With only ~12 stores in Austin I can't believe they think they can close any!

[Party_Taco 3882]

The bull argument for the holiday season is that there are not enough retailers to meet the demand for the new consoles and launch titles coming out, so GameStop still serves a purpose there. In the meantime, they have been shuttering stores to reduce overhead and expanding their business to niche collectibles, such as retro gaming clothing, figurines, etc. The writing was on the wall for their used game business model when digital downloads started becoming prominent, but instead of doubling down they are actually slowly shedding that side of the business and putting less emphasis on used games and using those resources to slowly build a better online presence. It also gives them more wiggle room to offer more competitive deals. For example, they were churning out better online deals than Amazon in April.
What they do after the holiday season will be their make or break, in my opinion. The Chewy co-founder having a significant share of the company, and supposedly having a significant voice, has apparently given investors some confidence this morning. They have the inventory, especially since they are shuttering stores. All they really need is an overhaul of their online presence and Cohen has proven he has the know-how to make that happen.
Also, full disclosure, I have some long shares and I bought OTM calls this morning. I'm up 10% on the shares and time will tell on the calls.

You and I are of the same mind. Long term, their B&M will see a 70% reduction if not outright elimination, but they have a chance this holiday season to stem the tide.

our internal guys were surprised this year by the sharp decline even before COVID. They saw this coming by and large, but not like this... I can’t recall if you are in the industry, or adjacent, but I’m wondering if you felt the same heading into 2019.

I’m in development for a mid next-gen product, and our current estimates on split are 80/20 Digital/physical, but I would be shocked if it wasn’t closer to 90/10.

[closetohumping 17778]

Tough day for Tesla and Apple.  Oh wait got damn it

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

1 hour ago, closetohumping said:

Tough day for Tesla and Apple.  Oh wait got damn it

The Tesla/Apple crash is going to be epic. It might not be anytime soon, but it will happen.

[closetohumping 17778]

17 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

The Tesla/Apple crash is going to be epic. It might not be anytime soon, but it will happen.

Hopefully it'll be my kids problem not mine.

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

12 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Hopefully it'll be my kids problem not mine.

[tokamak 6685]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

The Tesla/Apple crash is going to be epic. It might not be anytime soon, but it will happen.

Apple prints money though. That emperor actually has some clothes. Hardware sales will probably slow down, and they can't innovate for shit in handsets anymore (to be fair, no one is on the Android side, either), but they still sell a fuckton of stuff and have lots of room to grow in services. They have a nice opportunity to build an entire ecosystem that's not based on horsefucking the consumer's privacy (looking at you, Google and Facebook). Witness Facebook getting its panties in a wad about iOS 14.

Tesla though I really don't understand. Gotta be a bubble. If it's a self-driving play, they're way behind Google and have continually overpromised and underdelivered. No way it's a car making play, that's just preposterous. Battery tech play might make a little sense, but in the long run seems like it will be tough to hold off the Chinese. Pure Elon play?

[Henry Hill 3156]

Tesla’s P/E is only at 1,250. I’m buying.