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Llano Estacado

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26438

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My only concern with Apple is that it's become a utility (not a bad thing). They are very sticky and unless there is a major technology shift, people will upgrade iphones/ipads/macs every 3 years or so. It's a fantastic business model, not sure it warrants the valuation at this point. They need to do something will all that free cash that is a game-changer.

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

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Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11682

Posted
Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

P/E, actually loss per share,  and other facts (such as production delays and relying on tax credits) kept me from buying TSLA 10 years ago - so I'm not going to comment on a P/E of >1,000 as being ridiculous 

 

 

Substitute P/E for Revenue, but you get the point.

Edited by Incredulity
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Baconboy

Baconboy 135

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Gourmand said:

 

i was wondering what was driving DOCU up today on no news. 

Not sure if you already know or even want to know but the real answer is ZM, which crushed earnings expectations and now boasts a mind-bottling market cap of $127B. 

Edited by Baconboy
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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

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Posted
10 hours ago, Party_Taco said:


You and I are of the same mind. Long term, their B&M will see a 70% reduction if not outright elimination, but they have a chance this holiday season to stem the tide.

our internal guys were surprised this year by the sharp decline even before COVID. They saw this coming by and large, but not like this... I can’t recall if you are in the industry, or adjacent, but I’m wondering if you felt the same heading into 2019.

I’m in development for a mid next-gen product, and our current estimates on split are 80/20 Digital/physical, but I would be shocked if it wasn’t closer to 90/10.

I worked for GameStop for a couple of years starting with just before the PS3 launch and into the beginnings of digital download. They were asleep at the wheel during that entire time when it came to digital presence and further damaged their brand by continuing to reduce the trade-in value of games. The margin on the used inventory was better than on the new inventory and instead of keeping it where it was, they continued to squeeze as much blood from that turnip as they could while, simultaneously, more and more games were being offered digitally. Players were getting less and less for their physical copies while physical copies were less and less playable right out of the box due to day 1 updates and installs. So, the reasonable and understandable position of the consumer became "why would I buy a physical copy of a game if I have to download half of it anyway and only get $15 for it even though a used copy is still $54.99 on their shelf?"

While the consumer became disgruntled, GameStop continued to base manager pay heavily on hitting 3 metrics: trade-ins, preorders, and Game Informer subscriptions, which is now known as a Power Up membership or something like that. So when the consumer came into the store, they couldn't leave without being hard sold with the same old script. They'd come in empty handed, pick out some merchandise, and go to checkout. I little chit chat about the item they picked quickly followed up with "do you have any trade-ins for today? (they came in obviously empty handed but unless we ask literally everyone, someone up the food chain is going to give us a ton of shit)  *rattle off the latest special about trade-ins* Anything you want to preorder? *talk about the cool new games coming out* Would you like to subscribe to Game Informer? You'll get 10% off of your used purchase today and for one year blah blah blah blah..." GameStop quickly lost all of its charm as a haven for gamers and became so obviously revenue driven that it is now viewed the way it is today, disdainfully corporate.

It's only real value, now, is hardware and collectibles. That can change, however. Cut back B&M a ton because every strip mall does not need a store. There are GameStops literally across the freeway from each other in every major American city and they own very little of their own real estate. All those leases weigh heavy on the books. Stop all the hard selling. The Power Up program is useless because there is no brand loyalty left to speak of and its only real value is for trade-ins, which is dying. Game Informer doesn't give anything that the internet doesn't and people don't want to get magazines in the mail, anymore. Their best bet is to focus on obtaining some partnerships for exclusive hardware, merch, and collectibles. GameStop sat around while little upstarts like Optic Gaming, 100 Thieves, and NRG came in and locked down streamers and create their own merch. They let Amazon beat them to the punch when Amazon bought Justin.tv and made Twitch. Gaming is such a huge space that there is plenty of room for GameStop, but they need to find a way to make room for themselves. That starts with completely abandoning their business model. GameStop is essentially a blacksmith that needs to learn how to become a mechanic as soon as possible.

I have a lot more on the industry, as a whole, but I don't want to derail the thread further. GME is up another 12%, shorted shares are 99% of float, it's only a matter of time that people start getting margin called and it's off to the races. Yesterday was the last day to get cheap OTM calls, probably.

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Viking

Viking 301

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1 hour ago, Eastwood said:

I little chit chat about the item they picked quickly followed up with "do you have any trade-ins for today? (they came in obviously empty handed but unless we ask literally everyone, someone up the food chain is going to give us a ton of shit)  *rattle off the latest special about trade-ins* Anything you want to preorder? *talk about the cool new games coming out* Would you like to subscribe to Game Informer? You'll get 10% off of your used purchase today and for one year blah blah blah blah..." GameStop quickly lost all of its charm as a haven for gamers and became so obviously revenue driven that it is now viewed the way it is today, disdainfully corporate.

This reminded me of the last time I went to gamestop when the first WoW expansion came out. "Did you preorder?" "Nope!" "We only have copies for those who preordered."

I went to bestbuy down the road and they had a pallet of expansions 15 feet past the entrance. How does a company that sells washing machines do a better job of serving gamers than a game store?

 

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B00M

B00M 6455

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Eastwood said:

I worked for GameStop for a couple of years starting with just before the PS3 launch and into the beginnings of digital download. They were asleep at the wheel during that entire time when it came to digital presence and further damaged their brand by continuing to reduce the trade-in value of games. The margin on the used inventory was better than on the new inventory and instead of keeping it where it was, they continued to squeeze as much blood from that turnip as they could while, simultaneously, more and more games were being offered digitally. Players were getting less and less for their physical copies while physical copies were less and less playable right out of the box due to day 1 updates and installs. So, the reasonable and understandable position of the consumer became "why would I buy a physical copy of a game if I have to download half of it anyway and only get $15 for it even though a used copy is still $54.99 on their shelf?"

While the consumer became disgruntled, GameStop continued to base manager pay heavily on hitting 3 metrics: trade-ins, preorders, and Game Informer subscriptions, which is now known as a Power Up membership or something like that. So when the consumer came into the store, they couldn't leave without being hard sold with the same old script. They'd come in empty handed, pick out some merchandise, and go to checkout. I little chit chat about the item they picked quickly followed up with "do you have any trade-ins for today? (they came in obviously empty handed but unless we ask literally everyone, someone up the food chain is going to give us a ton of shit)  *rattle off the latest special about trade-ins* Anything you want to preorder? *talk about the cool new games coming out* Would you like to subscribe to Game Informer? You'll get 10% off of your used purchase today and for one year blah blah blah blah..." GameStop quickly lost all of its charm as a haven for gamers and became so obviously revenue driven that it is now viewed the way it is today, disdainfully corporate.

It's only real value, now, is hardware and collectibles. That can change, however. Cut back B&M a ton because every strip mall does not need a store. There are GameStops literally across the freeway from each other in every major American city and they own very little of their own real estate. All those leases weigh heavy on the books. Stop all the hard selling. The Power Up program is useless because there is no brand loyalty left to speak of and its only real value is for trade-ins, which is dying. Game Informer doesn't give anything that the internet doesn't and people don't want to get magazines in the mail, anymore. Their best bet is to focus on obtaining some partnerships for exclusive hardware, merch, and collectibles. GameStop sat around while little upstarts like Optic Gaming, 100 Thieves, and NRG came in and locked down streamers and create their own merch. They let Amazon beat them to the punch when Amazon bought Justin.tv and made Twitch. Gaming is such a huge space that there is plenty of room for GameStop, but they need to find a way to make room for themselves. That starts with completely abandoning their business model. GameStop is essentially a blacksmith that needs to learn how to become a mechanic as soon as possible.

I have a lot more on the industry, as a whole, but I don't want to derail the thread further. GME is up another 12%, shorted shares are 99% of float, it's only a matter of time that people start getting margin called and it's off to the races. Yesterday was the last day to get cheap OTM calls, probably.

That was oddly highly satisfying to read. Thanks

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52-80

52-80 19226

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I'd been doing well, steadily beating SPY over last few months selling options. 

Then I did a careless move selling naked calls on NVDA which basically wiped out half of my gains or more.  And I can admit it was really careless clicking of the mouse without really thinking through the trade.  Motherfucker went up 40% in a week and exposed my position.

 

So now in my equities account im FOMO'ing into tech because, why not get cut twice by the same knife, right?

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5575

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Sharing is caring, so here is my latest get rich slow scheme

Since deciding to ride the momentum of the market, and closing out my put positions, I have started to buy 10 SPY call options that have 30-35 day expiration dates and I buy whatever the strike price is closest to $1.50-$2.00. So the cost is between $1,500 - $2,000, and the strike price has been about 5-7% (more or less $20) above the current price for SPY. I don't hold them more than 3 weeks, becuase theta starts to erode the incremental value as you get that close.
And as SPY continues to rise (irrationally), those calls just print money. I did get greeedy and tried shorter term, but daily swings and approaching expiration date make it more volatile, and I haven't been as successful. 
I'm sure that these options will one day become worthless (and hopefully I will sell some on the way down to not take complete losses). It is well worth the ride; but keep your eyes open and ready to close out when the inevitable correction occurs. 
I will be putting my hedge puts back on, but not until the markets slows, or changes directions.

Stonks Only Go Up Gifts & Merchandise | Redbubble

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Goofyboy

Goofyboy 3294

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Very far. Most of the "Energy" stocks are moving out of oil and into alternatives. Exxon doesn't seem to be getting it. They'll get pulled out of a few "dividend based" mutual funds if they cut dividends too much.

Isn’t Exxon building a big LNG plant in Baytown? Seems like they are moving away from oil. We still need chemical plants.
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Baconboy

Baconboy 135

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Posted
23 hours ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I sold my $ZM shares today on this crazy rise. $WORK having a little bump, hope they continue to rally into earnings this Friday as I'd like to get out of that one.

Nice move on the ZM sale (for now anyway). What's the thought on $WORK? Since COVID broke out I (and most of the people in my organization) have gotten ZM and DOCU subscriptions, but I don't hear many people talk about Slack. I, however, am not tech savvy so perhaps COVID had led to a spike in Slack subscriptions and I'm just not hearing about it? 

What's your expectation for Friday's earnings? 

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ZB'Tejas

ZB'Tejas 593

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33 minutes ago, Baconboy said:

Nice move on the ZM sale (for now anyway). What's the thought on $WORK? Since COVID broke out I (and most of the people in my organization) have gotten ZM and DOCU subscriptions, but I don't hear many people talk about Slack. I, however, am not tech savvy so perhaps COVID had led to a spike in Slack subscriptions and I'm just not hearing about it? 

What's your expectation for Friday's earnings? 

I don't think they will know it out of the park like $ZM but I would think it's at the top or just exceed expectations. While $ZM has taken  off across all businesses $WORK is widely used but still more viewed as an Engineering niche product not the defacto standard. (other than Amazon).  Still concerns they can be pressed out of the enterprise from Office 365 which is limiting this from really flying over the summer like the other stocks you mentioned.

I think they can figure it out long term and be viable but I'm only hoping for 30-40% upside this year.

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Blotto

Blotto 23568

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Posted

Fun market tidbit I just realized today....

INTC TTM  Revenue - $79 billion, Net Income - $23.6 billion

AMD TTM Revenue - $7.6 billion, Net income - $609 million

INTC Market Cap - $216 billion

AMD Market Cap - $108 billion

Intel's Net profit is 3 times higher than AMD's revenue, lulz. One of these companies has to be grossly misvalued, and I don't think its INTC. 

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26438

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You are looking at "current state" vs 'future state'. Intel continues to lose market share to AMD in desktops and laptops. Intel controls the server market and this is where AMD has set their sights. Plus Intel's 7-nanometer chip rollout is delayed to at least late 2022. AMD already has one in the market. Intel is having some serious manufacturing issues.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5575

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4 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Fun market tidbit I just realized today....

INTC TTM  Revenue - $79 billion, Net Income - $23.6 billion

AMD TTM Revenue - $7.6 billion, Net income - $609 million

INTC Market Cap - $216 billion

AMD Market Cap - $108 billion

Intel's Net profit is 3 times higher than AMD's revenue, lulz. One of these companies has to be grossly misvalued, and I don't think its INTC. 

Now do this for Tesla vs Toyota, GM & Ford

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52-80

52-80 19226

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Rumors have swirled around Intel's engineering issues a fewto years and they finally came to roost when they publicly admitted they were really behind.  Not sure either are valuated properly, but there is a strong reason for their divergence in stock performance

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ZB'Tejas

ZB'Tejas 593

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1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Very far. Most of the "Energy" stocks are moving out of oil and into alternatives. Exxon doesn't seem to be getting it. They'll get pulled out of a few "dividend based" mutual funds if they cut dividends too much.

Although I'm not that worried about holding $XOM long term I'll probably scale it back a bit and keep that cash ready to drop it back in if they do cut the dividend and we see a drop in price.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31529

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24 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

You are looking at "current state" vs 'future state'. Intel continues to lose market share to AMD in desktops and laptops. Intel controls the server market and this is where AMD has set their sights. Plus Intel's 7-nanometer chip rollout is delayed to at least late 2022. AMD already has one in the market. Intel is having some serious manufacturing issues.

Yep, AMDs valuation is based on the come (not the cum). It's a capital-intensive business from a mfg and R/D perspective and AMDs investments are expected to pay off, while Intel's are currently not paying off and not expected to.

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Blotto

Blotto 23568

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Posted
50 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

You are looking at "current state" vs 'future state'. Intel continues to lose market share to AMD in desktops and laptops. Intel controls the server market and this is where AMD has set their sights. Plus Intel's 7-nanometer chip rollout is delayed to at least late 2022. AMD already has one in the market. Intel is having some serious manufacturing issues.

I get all of that. Was merely a comment on the market insanity. AMD is in the same realm as TSLA. ....both companies could have market caps of $10 trillion dollars and it would make as much sense as thier current valuations. The irrationality is exactly why those are two stocks I won't bet against either of them. 

Signed,

guy who bought DIS Sept puts back in June, so he clearly knows whats up. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5575

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24 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I get all of that. Was merely a comment on the market insanity. AMD is in the same realm as TSLA. ....both companies could have market caps of $10 trillion dollars and it would make as much sense as thier current valuations. The irrationality is exactly why those are two stocks I won't bet against either of them. 

Signed,

guy who bought DIS Sept puts back in June, so he clearly knows whats up. 

I had DIS puts, bought them in mid April, held them too long - thinking (wrongly) that earnings would show how bad it was. 
Sold then and recooped maybe 15% of the cost, licked my wounds, brooded about it - and decided to play the + momentum ..... today has been a good day for + holdings (jinxer, no jinxing)

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Hmmm

Hmmm 155

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Posted (edited)

Feel free not to read.  Mods may want to delete.  I like how civilized this thread has been and very hesitant to post this.  Had no idea there was a conception of Blue vs Red stock.  It's from CNN so may require auto-ban.  I don't believe most of it but find it helpful to know what others think.  

Spoiler

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/investing/joe-biden-stock-market-donald-trump/index.html

The stock market thinks Joe Biden is going to beat Donald Trump

New York (CNN Business) - The presidential election is only two months away and the stock market is soaring.

In theory, that should bode well for President Trump since a bull market has historically benefited the incumbent. But Trump is trailing Democratic challenger Joe Biden in many head-to-head national polls.
Although the market's sharp rebound since March could be viewed as a sign that investors expect the coronavirus-induced recession to be brief, you need to dig deeper and look at how the recovery is unfolding.
It turns out a basket of stocks that could fare well in a Biden presidency have been outperforming the overall market — as well as a portfolio of stocks that might benefit from a second Trump term.

Blue stocks vs red
According to data from Strategas that was shared with CNN Business, a group of infrastructure, renewable energy, pro-globalization, health care and cannabis stocks are up more than 10% since early June.

This so-called Biden or blue list includes companies like Granite Construction (GVA), Tesla (TSLA), First Solar (FSLR), chip giant Broadcom (AVGO) and the iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG), which owns several top German stocks.
The bet is that these companies might thrive if Biden wins and pushes for the United States to rebuild highways and bridges, wean America off oil and restore fractured trade relations with China, Japan, Europe and other global economic leaders.

Investors also seem to think that affordable health care and more relaxed laws regarding marijuana use could be in the cards if Biden is the next president. Along those lines, insurer Centene (CNC), hospital owner HCA (HCA) and Canadian cannabis firm Canopy Growth (CGC) are in the "blue" portfolio.
Meanwhile, a group of oil and fossil fuel producers, big defense contractors and bank stocks tracked by Strategas that might do better under a second Trump term is down 9% in the past three months.
Driller Transocean (RIG), coal miner Peabody (BTU), military suppliers Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC), and Wall Street powerhouses Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are part of this "red" basket.

The Fed may matter more than the president
This is no guarantee of a Biden win. The market (and many political pundits) notoriously underestimated and misjudged Trump's chances against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
And it's only September — a lot can happen in the two months before the election. Trump could make a comeback in the polls after the debates. Positive news about possible Covid-19 vaccines could also benefit the incumbent.
But other experts also think Wall Street is signaling that it expects Biden to win, and that this could be a good thing for the continued economic recovery.

For one, there's historical precedent for Biden to stick with current Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, who has been praised for tackling the Covid-19 economic crisis by slashing interest rates to zero and launching several new lending programs.
Biden's former boss, Barack Obama, stuck with George W. Bush's appointed Fed chair Ben Bernanke so that Bernanke could continue to manage the Fed's response to the 2008 global financial crisis. In other words, Obama chose continuity over partisanship.
Trump could very well keep Powell for a second term. But the president has often lashed out at Powell on Twitter and in news conferences for not acting quickly enough to cut rates. He even bashed Powell for not slashing rates below zero, a risky move taken by Europe and Japan.

That makes a reappointment of Powell under Trump less of a slam dunk.
"There may be more risk of Powell being replaced under Trump than Biden. Trump was criticizing Powell even when the economy and market were both doing well," said Nela Richardson, an investment strategist with Edward Jones in an interview with CNN Business.
"That's just one reason why the outcome of this election is not as cut and dry. Biden represents the precedent of Obama keeping Bernanke," Richardson added.
Another market expert noted that the usual knee-jerk market reaction to White House politics (i.e. a Democrat is bad because they would raise taxes while a Republican will cut them) may not hold water in 2020.
"We lean against the conventional thinking that Biden = tax hikes = bad for the market," said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer of Northern Trust Wealth Management, in a recent report.


"There is more at play, and the calculus behind the totality of proposals is complicated, with the impact of tax increases potentially offset by a repairing of trade relationships around the world," Nixon added.

 

Edited by Hmmm
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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9523

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“U.S. stocks had a strong day Wednesday, sending the S&P 500 to its 22nd record close of the year. The rally came on the heels of data from payroll processor ADP showing the addition of about 428,000 new jobs during the month of August. That was actually far less than the 1.17 million job additions expected, but investors have been in a generous mode lately—latching onto any sign of back-to-normalcy.”

 

 

92E94261-B7CE-4393-9D8E-3488AEE347AF.gif

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HouTex

HouTex 1889

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Posted

Just posting it again.  My broker (n/k/a private wealth manager) talked me off the ledge twice--when the market was around the bottom and after it rebounded about 20% from the bottom, and I'm glad he did.  There is a huge risk being out of the market.  I'm mainly talking about retirement funds that you will not touch in 5+ years.

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Tailgate

Tailgate 3022

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Posted
Just posting it again.  My broker (n/k/a private wealth manager) talked me off the ledge twice--when the market was around the bottom and after it rebounded about 20% from the bottom, and I'm glad he did.  There is a huge risk being out of the market.  I'm mainly talking about retirement funds that you will not touch in 5+ years.


Ditto. Not a broker just follow Bogle.

Left my last and final broker 10 years ago when he told me I need to sell some of my AAPL I bought as a “kid” in my first 401k.

Survived the .com and 9/11 and now this.

Can’t fight the brrrrrrrr. It’s nuts to look at gains during this...ready for a downturn if/when it happens.
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