Jump to content

Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 15.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

Posted Images

Trey3216

Trey3216 15451

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Hmmm said:

Feel free not to read.  Mods may want to delete.  I like how civilized this thread has been and very hesitant to post this.  Had no idea there was a conception of Blue vs Red stock.  It's from CNN so may require auto-ban.  I don't believe most of it but find it helpful to know what others think.  

  Reveal hidden contents

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/investing/joe-biden-stock-market-donald-trump/index.html

The stock market thinks Joe Biden is going to beat Donald Trump

New York (CNN Business) - The presidential election is only two months away and the stock market is soaring.

In theory, that should bode well for President Trump since a bull market has historically benefited the incumbent. But Trump is trailing Democratic challenger Joe Biden in many head-to-head national polls.
Although the market's sharp rebound since March could be viewed as a sign that investors expect the coronavirus-induced recession to be brief, you need to dig deeper and look at how the recovery is unfolding.
It turns out a basket of stocks that could fare well in a Biden presidency have been outperforming the overall market — as well as a portfolio of stocks that might benefit from a second Trump term.

Blue stocks vs red
According to data from Strategas that was shared with CNN Business, a group of infrastructure, renewable energy, pro-globalization, health care and cannabis stocks are up more than 10% since early June.

This so-called Biden or blue list includes companies like Granite Construction (GVA), Tesla (TSLA), First Solar (FSLR), chip giant Broadcom (AVGO) and the iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG), which owns several top German stocks.
The bet is that these companies might thrive if Biden wins and pushes for the United States to rebuild highways and bridges, wean America off oil and restore fractured trade relations with China, Japan, Europe and other global economic leaders.

Investors also seem to think that affordable health care and more relaxed laws regarding marijuana use could be in the cards if Biden is the next president. Along those lines, insurer Centene (CNC), hospital owner HCA (HCA) and Canadian cannabis firm Canopy Growth (CGC) are in the "blue" portfolio.
Meanwhile, a group of oil and fossil fuel producers, big defense contractors and bank stocks tracked by Strategas that might do better under a second Trump term is down 9% in the past three months.
Driller Transocean (RIG), coal miner Peabody (BTU), military suppliers Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC), and Wall Street powerhouses Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are part of this "red" basket.

The Fed may matter more than the president
This is no guarantee of a Biden win. The market (and many political pundits) notoriously underestimated and misjudged Trump's chances against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
And it's only September — a lot can happen in the two months before the election. Trump could make a comeback in the polls after the debates. Positive news about possible Covid-19 vaccines could also benefit the incumbent.
But other experts also think Wall Street is signaling that it expects Biden to win, and that this could be a good thing for the continued economic recovery.

For one, there's historical precedent for Biden to stick with current Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, who has been praised for tackling the Covid-19 economic crisis by slashing interest rates to zero and launching several new lending programs.
Biden's former boss, Barack Obama, stuck with George W. Bush's appointed Fed chair Ben Bernanke so that Bernanke could continue to manage the Fed's response to the 2008 global financial crisis. In other words, Obama chose continuity over partisanship.
Trump could very well keep Powell for a second term. But the president has often lashed out at Powell on Twitter and in news conferences for not acting quickly enough to cut rates. He even bashed Powell for not slashing rates below zero, a risky move taken by Europe and Japan.

That makes a reappointment of Powell under Trump less of a slam dunk.
"There may be more risk of Powell being replaced under Trump than Biden. Trump was criticizing Powell even when the economy and market were both doing well," said Nela Richardson, an investment strategist with Edward Jones in an interview with CNN Business.
"That's just one reason why the outcome of this election is not as cut and dry. Biden represents the precedent of Obama keeping Bernanke," Richardson added.
Another market expert noted that the usual knee-jerk market reaction to White House politics (i.e. a Democrat is bad because they would raise taxes while a Republican will cut them) may not hold water in 2020.
"We lean against the conventional thinking that Biden = tax hikes = bad for the market," said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer of Northern Trust Wealth Management, in a recent report.


"There is more at play, and the calculus behind the totality of proposals is complicated, with the impact of tax increases potentially offset by a repairing of trade relationships around the world," Nixon added.

 

The concept is there, the execution on that particular article is pretty laughable.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5669

Posted
Posted

Pre-market is down, US Trade deficit widens by 19% in July, new jobless claims at 880,000.....looks like it'll be another up day once the market opens

Also, someone talk me out of closing most of my option positions into the long weekend, not sure I want to close them, not sure I want to hold them {coin toss}

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5669

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Tesla getting hit hard.  Time to dip buy?

I guess that is what happens when you announce a $5billion stock offering, apparently the dilution didn't sit well with some.
Can't blame them for cashing in on the stock price, hell that cash could allow them to pay some debt coming due in the next few years

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
Posted

Last night after the bell, GME filed an 8K showing that BoA just lent them another 9 figures. Shares popped 12%, dropped to only 2% this morning, and looking like it is going to climb higher.

I know for the bulk of you guys in here that it is too much of a leap of faith to go long on GME, but there is profit to be made on it in the last quarter, being console launch and holiday season. Especially if it hits $10 and the Robinhood millionaires show up. Even more so if another round of direct stimulus is announced.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BLKNSTY

BLKNSTY 289

Posted
Posted
Hoping this is the beginning of rotation to value stocks.

Small cap, tech, next generation fuels, weed have all had some pretty solid months, where do you think these value stocks are? Oil? REITs? Banks? High paying dividend stocks? Looks like travel has been enjoying a solid week, but man, I think travel getting back to pre corona levels isn’t anything that’ll happen soon?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blotto

Blotto 23988

Posted
Posted (edited)

Looks like Jpow and the gang must have had a rager last night to celebrate the S&P clearing 3500, and hit the snooze button a bit too many times. Appears they may have finally dragged thier ass back to the printers. 

Also, thoughts and prayers to all Longs who entered the market since .....Tuesday. 

Edited by Blotto
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5669

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

This had to be coming.  The run up has been stupid.  

oh I agree - but it's going to take more than one day (okay - 1/2 a day so far), to convince me this is the start to the correction.
I figured there would be a trigger event, not just that the collective would one day recognize how pricey stocks had become.

TINA is still going to be a big influence, until there is someplace else to put your investment $$$'s

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Incredulity

Incredulity 11862

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

oh I agree - but it's going to take more than one day (okay - 1/2 a day so far), to convince me this is the start to the correction.
I figured there would be a trigger event, not just that the collective would one day recognize how pricey stocks had become.

TINA is still going to be a big influence, until there is someplace else to put your investment $$$'s

Look international for super big opportunity.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26439

Posted
Posted
Just now, Sbbruin said:

I’m not gonna paycheck stub my losses today, but they are very significant.  But I do feel like I’m playing with house money a bit.  My gains have been comical lately.

Truth. I'm not torn up about losing 3% on a 40% run up. I feel bad for those who've been sitting on the sidelines who see this as a buying opportunity.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
pearlandhorn

pearlandhorn 3343

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Eastwood said:

Last night after the bell, GME filed an 8K showing that BoA just lent them another 9 figures. Shares popped 12%, dropped to only 2% this morning, and looking like it is going to climb higher.

I know for the bulk of you guys in here that it is too much of a leap of faith to go long on GME, but there is profit to be made on it in the last quarter, being console launch and holiday season. Especially if it hits $10 and the Robinhood millionaires show up. Even more so if another round of direct stimulus is announced.

That's a huge leap of faith given where we're going to be at in November/December and given with the "new" way Microsoft and Sony are selling their games (online store).  Given the new architecture of the consoles, Microsoft and Sony will most likely be selling these at a loss like they did the xbox 1 and ps4 at launch.  If you read on how they will be supplementing these losses, it's all through online sale of games/game pass.  Stores like Gamestop will be one of the first in line to close up in my opinion.  Will it happen in 2021?  Depends on sales this holiday season, in my opinion.  However, given where we're at in society with people doing most of their shopping through Amazon/online and not by brick and mortar, it's going to be an uphill battle for them and BoA may end up owning Gamestop through bankruptcy when it's all said and done.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9790

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

oh I agree - but it's going to take more than one day (okay - 1/2 a day so far), to convince me this is the start to the correction.
I figured there would be a trigger event, not just that the collective would one day recognize how pricey stocks had become.

TINA is still going to be a big influence, until there is someplace else to put your investment $$$'s

Agreed. But with ~25% of trades now being done by stonkers (individual investors)—the highest level in a decade— when it turns, it’s going to get real bad, real fast.

I don’t have a lot of confidence in Joe Schmo listening while JPow and the big guns are doing this:

 

73273000-8C3E-4128-93E6-C288E81D5E19.gif

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Incredulity

Incredulity 11862

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, pearlandhorn said:

That's a huge leap of faith given where we're going to be at in November/December and given with the "new" way Microsoft and Sony are selling their games (online store).  Given the new architecture of the consoles, Microsoft and Sony will most likely be selling these at a loss like they did the xbox 1 and ps4 at launch.  If you read on how they will be supplementing these losses, it's all through online sale of games/game pass.  Stores like Gamestop will be one of the first in line to close up in my opinion.  Will it happen in 2021?  Depends on sales this holiday season, in my opinion.  However, given where we're at in society with people doing most of their shopping through Amazon/online and not by brick and mortar, it's going to be an uphill battle for them and BoA may end up owning Gamestop through bankruptcy when it's all said and done.

All of which may be true, but has little to really do with what he was saying.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...