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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15095

Posted
Posted

So many thread questions about the reason for the pullback. Let me just enlighten the small investor crowd.

You see, the party stopped for the rich and Wall Street in March. They took massive losses, losses that would endanger their ability to get their kids GI joe with the Kung Fu grip for Christmas.

So, they needed the little guy to bail them out. They hatched scheme after scheme to artificially prop up the stock market long enough for them to get back their losses and book gains for the year, so that their fund statistics will look great on Morningstar for 2020, and their rich investors can brag about being up 10% in a very volatile dangerous year for investing.

They had their buddies at the Fed start buying bonds. They dropped interest rates even more. They turned on the brrrrr machine, they splashed money into the market with free giveaways to everyone. Free rent! Free loans! Freeeeeee!

Most of these moves could only provide brief temporary relief from market forces, but that’s all they needed to move their rich clients to the sidelines. What we are seeing now is the methodical but quick movement of “in the know” money to less riskier positions, leaving the little guy to ride the decline again over the next 45-60 days.

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Superhero

Superhero 8845

Posted
Posted
On 9/1/2020 at 7:24 AM, BevoSwag said:

Fair Warning To Surly Viewers:  I've started dabbling in small buys in the market today.  Beware of the impending crash.

 

14 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

perhaps you should dabble more often

Or maybe not.

Hope you didn't take it in the shorts this morning.

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, pearlandhorn said:

That's a huge leap of faith given where we're going to be at in November/December and given with the "new" way Microsoft and Sony are selling their games (online store).  Given the new architecture of the consoles, Microsoft and Sony will most likely be selling these at a loss like they did the xbox 1 and ps4 at launch.  If you read on how they will be supplementing these losses, it's all through online sale of games/game pass.  Stores like Gamestop will be one of the first in line to close up in my opinion.  Will it happen in 2021?  Depends on sales this holiday season, in my opinion.  However, given where we're at in society with people doing most of their shopping through Amazon/online and not by brick and mortar, it's going to be an uphill battle for them and BoA may end up owning Gamestop through bankruptcy when it's all said and done.

Yeah, as far as for what I'm preaching, I don't care about 2021. I'm going to cash out when what I think is going to happen happens, then reset my long position after it dips back down to sub $6. There is some near term upside to be had, long term uncertainty, but looking at their cash, current investors, and the new members of the board, I think something is in store for the future. If they make it through 2021, 2022 is going to be a fun year for the stock.

Speaking of their investors, BlackRock owns 16.13% of all outstanding shares last month. Ryan Cohen, who is touted as the guy who beat Amazon at their own game in the pet supply space, now owns 9% of all outstanding shares. His Chewy co-founder was added to the board in March, as well as Reggie Fils-Aime, who is largely responsible for Nintendo's huge turnaround in North America. Michael Burry bought 5% back in December. Any time he gets mentioned, it gets an eye roll but all in all, GameStop is loaded for bear for what might be their last year to make it work. They've added influential people who have had great success before. Maybe GameStop is beyond saving, but the odds are insanely better than they were in 2019. I wouldn't be surprised if you saw a sale of all existing real estate that they have left and a total rebrand, including a name change. We'll get some news of future plans next Wednesday, a little more in the Q3, and some time in 2021 we'll have the full reveal.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19227

Posted
Posted
On 9/2/2020 at 11:32 AM, Cheeseweasel said:

Very far. Most of the "Energy" stocks are moving out of oil and into alternatives. Exxon doesn't seem to be getting it. They'll get pulled out of a few "dividend based" mutual funds if they cut dividends too much.

BP cut theirs in half and the stock was at the same price about two weeks later.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

Posted
Posted (edited)

Some of use utes need to be praying for a fiscal response from Congress. No one out there to buy those Teslas and 5G phones in the U.S. 

The spice ain't flowing. 

Fed can't do it all. 

Know your limits. Good luck.

https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/largest-increase-in-productivity-since-1971-at-what-cost

Quote

In contrast to overall productivity up 10.1% manufacturing productivity dropped 14.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2020, as output fell 47.0 percent and hours worked dropped 38.0 percent. 

These were the largest quarterly declines in each of these series, which begin with data for 1987.

 

Edited by washparkhorn
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closetohumping

closetohumping 17476

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Some of use utes need to be praying for a fiscal response from Congress. No one out there to buy those Teslas and 5G phones in the U.S. 

The spice ain't flowing. 

Fed can't do it all. 

Know your limits. Good luck.

https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/largest-increase-in-productivity-since-1971-at-what-cost

 

Pumpkin spice season.  Gonna pick up a few Sbux

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7774

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I don't see how there could possibly be a correction. As soon as there's any sort of dip, money will flood into the market as a "buying opportunity". TINA. Betcha we're right back in the green tomorrow.

I'm curious to see how the market reacts to DOCU earnings with exceptional forward guidance. Will profit-taking shave the short term price or will we see more investors flood into it with $300+ on the brain?

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3342

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Blotto said:

Yeah that jumped out at me as well and wondered how frequently that happens. 

The market and the vix both going up together happens in a little less than 1 1/2% of trading days.  It’s nature’s way of telling you something’s wrong. 

Edited by Harrison Stafford
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BevoSwag

BevoSwag 272

Posted
Posted

I don't follow Buffett as closely as I use to but the wise old owl may have an idea the dollar is going to be very weak.  Note his sales of JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sacs among other financials and bought gold.  His purchase a couple of days ago of nearly $6B in Japanese stocks tells me he has little faith in the US Dollar.

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B00M

B00M 6471

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, BevoSwag said:

I don't follow Buffett as closely as I use to but the wise old owl may have an idea the dollar is going to be very weak.  Note his sales of JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sacs among other financials and bought gold.  His purchase a couple of days ago of nearly $6B in Japanese stocks tells me he has little faith in the US Dollar.

If I recall correctly, that Japanese trading house purchase was only like 10% of his portfolio? You might have been misled by the headline

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21175

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

So many thread questions about the reason for the pullback. Let me just enlighten the small investor crowd.

You see, the party stopped for the rich and Wall Street in March. They took massive losses, losses that would endanger their ability to get their kids GI joe with the Kung Fu grip for Christmas.

So, they needed the little guy to bail them out. They hatched scheme after scheme to artificially prop up the stock market long enough for them to get back their losses and book gains for the year, so that their fund statistics will look great on Morningstar for 2020, and their rich investors can brag about being up 10% in a very volatile dangerous year for investing.

They had their buddies at the Fed start buying bonds. They dropped interest rates even more. They turned on the brrrrr machine, they splashed money into the market with free giveaways to everyone. Free rent! Free loans! Freeeeeee!

Most of these moves could only provide brief temporary relief from market forces, but that’s all they needed to move their rich clients to the sidelines. What we are seeing now is the methodical but quick movement of “in the know” money to less riskier positions, leaving the little guy to ride the decline again over the next 45-60 days.

I wish this were true.  Those fucks have no idea either.  But I’m all about a big crash because I’m gonna throw all that bond money into STONKS.  I’m 41 and I’ve gotten great at not looking at my account every 10 seconds.  
Oh and we need another 20% drop before I’d consider it being a ‘real’ drop.  

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11683

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I wish this were true.  Those fucks have no idea either.  But I’m all about a big crash because I’m gonna throw all that bond money into STONKS.  I’m 41 and I’ve gotten great at not looking at my account every 10 seconds.  
Oh and we need another 20% drop before I’d consider it being a ‘real’ drop.  

Not that I agree with him, but even though you may be 1% you aren’t the part of The Pentavirate who meets bi-annually at The Meadows .000001% he is talking about.

but, if you are wtf are you doing here?

Edited by Incredulity
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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19227

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Not that I agree with him, but even though you may be 1% you aren’t the part of The Pentavirate who meets bi-annually at The Meadows .000001% he is talking about.

but, if you are wtf are you doing here?

Man, I told you to keep that shit on the down low,

We don’t need these chucklefucks catching on to us.

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