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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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drt

drt 640

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

SEC should do it like how some countries scale speeding tickets to income.  Your penalty for , i dont know, dumping chemicals in the ocean or accounting malfeasance should be scaled to your market cap.  If you're a gigantic bank engaging in major fraud, you should be spanked upside the ass

Ya I laughed at the Citibank article I read the other day.  Headline was something to the effect of "huuuuuge 3B fine".  Looked it up, approximately 2 day's revenue.  Same thing for JPM and their fine a few weeks/months? ago.  They're actively incentivized to do what they're doing.  I feel like we're whistling all the way to the graveyard, but TINA.

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Colonel Sanders said:

I haven't been following BBBY.  How are they at a 52 week high?  Seems strange.

I don't want to garner a reputation here of being the short squeeze guy, but the short interest is 57% of float and institutional investors are 106%. Low share supply with a pretty high demand. Looking at the 5 minute chart, most of the pops this morning are when volume is low. It might be as simple as a supply/demand issue with shares. Any small amount of news that moves the needle creates issues for short sellers. Looking at the news feed, BBBY actually beat its earnings estimates on October 1, followed by a series of price target upgrades, performance rating upgrades, a partnership with Shipt for same-day delivery, and now a selling of non-core assets giving it more runway to right the ship before bankruptcy. That's a lot of upward pressure on a heavily shorted stock. I'm kind of bummed that I missed all that.

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closetohumping

closetohumping 17476

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, drt said:

Ya I laughed at the Citibank article I read the other day.  Headline was something to the effect of "huuuuuge 3B fine".  Looked it up, approximately 2 day's revenue.  Same thing for JPM and their fine a few weeks/months? ago.  They're actively incentivized to do what they're doing.  I feel like we're whistling all the way to the graveyard, but TINA.

I'm gonna start a company called JT Marlin

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49372

Posted
Posted
On 10/13/2020 at 7:50 AM, ChiTownDoc said:

Better to be lucky then good.  Pulled out at s/p 2600 and got in at 2800.  But instead on index funds jumped into individual names and very tech heavy.  And likely would have pulled some gains but didn’t want to pay ordinary income.  Anyways all the gains are on paper, and you can bet right after I’ve held a year and am ready to take some chips off the table, shit will crash.  A tale as old as time...

beauty-and-the-beast-pictures.jpg

Which is the Bull and Bear??

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5589

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Which is the Bull and Bear??

Great question - My blood pressure goes up just seeing Disney shit, I lost $$$ on puts a few times on them; and I'm still convinced that their business model is broken with parks, cruises, retail merchandising, movies, hotel/restaurants, etc all being a fraction of historic traffic and revenues and only Disney+ doing well. And yet it is still trading at $125, down nominally from their all-time high (hit in Nov ;19) of just over $150. 
How does it not fall.....brrrrrr isn't really helping (unless JPow is buying DIS bonds or stock) - but I've lost enough, and learned that even if I'm right the market can be wrong longer than I can pay to bet against it.

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HookEm

HookEm 2468

Posted
Posted

Who knows.  I would assume that Disney's costs are also down significantly. And if Disney+ is doing well, that is probably at a high margin.  There is probably some expectation that the demand will eventually return to all the other stuff AND that there will be some stickiness to the Disney+ subs.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49372

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Great question - My blood pressure goes up just seeing Disney shit, I lost $$$ on puts a few times on them; and I'm still convinced that their business model is broken with parks, cruises, retail merchandising, movies, hotel/restaurants, etc all being a fraction of historic traffic and revenues and only Disney+ doing well. And yet it is still trading at $125, down nominally from their all-time high (hit in Nov ;19) of just over $150. 
How does it not fall.....brrrrrr isn't really helping (unless JPow is buying DIS bonds or stock) - but I've lost enough, and learned that even if I'm right the market can be wrong longer than I can pay to bet against it.

Talkin Heads plug DIS stock all the time because it's in their portfolios (and maybe other $$'s under the table??).   Also wonder how much Chinese $$'s are currently propping it up.

Longterm, not sure we won't see a big fall unless it gets broken up... but that may be a long time from now.

It just seems like another old stock that goes away kinda like Sears...

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5589

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Talkin Heads plug DIS stock all the time because it's in their portfolios (and maybe other $$'s under the table??).   Also wonder how much Chinese $$'s are currently propping it up.

Longterm, not sure we won't see a big fall unless it gets broken up... but that may be a long time from now.

It just seems like another old stock that goes away kinda like Sears...

I don't see it going the way of Sears, nobody is taking parks, cruises, restaurants,  etc away to e-commerce. But they do have a big physical asset base

25 minutes ago, LarryTT said:

$2M Disney 130 calls came in expiring in Dec.  Bought at ask.  Someone betting big.

Bigger balls and portfolio than I have, I'm dabbling in longer term calls on things doing well (or pure speculation) - COST, F, ALT, and a few others

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Blotto

Blotto 23584

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Great question - My blood pressure goes up just seeing Disney shit, I lost $$$ on puts a few times on them; and I'm still convinced that their business model is broken with parks, cruises, retail merchandising, movies, hotel/restaurants, etc all being a fraction of historic traffic and revenues and only Disney+ doing well. And yet it is still trading at $125, down nominally from their all-time high (hit in Nov ;19) of just over $150. 
How does it not fall.....brrrrrr isn't really helping (unless JPow is buying DIS bonds or stock) - but I've lost enough, and learned that even if I'm right the market can be wrong longer than I can pay to bet against it.

 I took it in the ass as well on DIS puts. the humorous  thing is that they are now going all in on the streaming model, which everyone jacks off about due to Netflix's "success"....but here's the deal: 

Netflix Debt Chart Embed

Netflix borrows a fuckton of money to make all that content. WIthout all that content, they lose subscribers. Interestingly enough, the ever widening negative free cash gulf is always supposed to get better NEXT year. Welcome to the ponzi scheme party DIS. 

image.thumb.png.d2868ac44b19ace96090cb949024a018.png

Edited by Blotto
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Blotto

Blotto 23584

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Yeah, but since Disney already owns most of their content, doesn't that give them a huge advantage vs. Netflix?

Maybe for 5 year olds that want to watch Frozen 16 times a week, but in order to keep subscribers longer than a few months, there always needs to be fresh content. Mandalorian costs 120 million per season. Netflix has how many things in production? DIS will need to keep up. 

I will also add that the Netflic graphic I posted above I mistook for current data, when it is actually a couple of years old and does not accurately reflect the current NFLX numbers, which shows slight cash flow positive in 2020, but it wouldnt surprise me if that is really a result of dramatically lower spending on production due to Covid shutdowns (as revenue didn't really grow that much) I suspect there will be a spike in production costs once we gain some normalcy with respect to Covid. 
 

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hornbri

hornbri 1417

Posted
Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Maybe for 5 year olds that want to watch Frozen 16 times a week, but in order to keep subscribers longer than a few months, there always needs to be fresh content. Mandalorian costs 120 million per season. Netflix has how many things in production? DIS will need to keep up. 

I think you under estimate how many parents will keep paying for it just for the library of content. 

Edited by hornbri
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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12104

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Eastwood said:

It wouldn't surprise me if we go green today. I guess it should stop surprising us if days like this do go green.

All those compromised Robinhood accounts give no fucks about unemployment.

Edited by Dnaguy
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89821

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, hornbri said:

I think you under estimate how many parents will keep paying for it just for the library of content. 

This.  Disney has a lock on a lot of parents.  Disney+ is the go-to "safe" streaming service with the most content - most of the kid-oriented streaming services are crap.

And when I say "safe", I mean you don't have to worry about the kid straying into mommy and daddy's Netflix or Amazon profile, and you don't have to worry about them being hypnotized by Blippi or Ryan.  

If you can lock them into Disney+, you can get shit done for an hour or two, or take a nap, or whatever, and won't wake up to them saying "ALL MUST OBEY BLIPPI", or asking what those women were doing in that show about the colors orange and black.

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CDAK

CDAK 216

Posted
Posted
On 10/14/2020 at 6:48 AM, drt said:

Ya I laughed at the Citibank article I read the other day.  Headline was something to the effect of "huuuuuge 3B fine".  Looked it up, approximately 2 day's revenue.  Same thing for JPM and their fine a few weeks/months? ago.  They're actively incentivized to do what they're doing.  I feel like we're whistling all the way to the graveyard, but TINA.

I don't think this is right. Do you have a cite? 

Looking at their 2019 annual report, they had about 74 billion in total net revenue. Your numbers would put their total net revenue at 547.5 billion, approximately7x-8x more than their actual revenues. 

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52-80

52-80 19262

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, CDAK said:

I don't think this is right. Do you have a cite? 

Looking at their 2019 annual report, they had about 74 billion in total net revenue. Your numbers would put their total net revenue at 547.5 billion, approximately7x-8x more than their actual revenues. 

Maybe they're underreporting 470B of revenue to skirt taxes.  Those dirt bags. 

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12104

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

This.  Disney has a lock on a lot of parents.  Disney+ is the go-to "safe" streaming service with the most content - most of the kid-oriented streaming services are crap.

And when I say "safe", I mean you don't have to worry about the kid straying into mommy and daddy's Netflix or Amazon profile, and you don't have to worry about them being hypnotized by Blippi or Ryan.  

If you can lock them into Disney+, you can get shit done for an hour or two, or take a nap, or whatever, and won't wake up to them saying "ALL MUST OBEY BLIPPI", or asking what those women were doing in that show about the colors orange and black.

Me: What’s a Blippi?

Me: [googles]
Me: 

Blink 182 Reaction GIF
 

That being said, Fancy Nancy on Disney+ Makes me want to want to hang out in a compressor building all day so that the tinnitus drowns out her shit French she’s always spouting.
 

Edited by Dnaguy
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89821

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Me: What’s a Blippi?

Me: [googles]
Me: 

Blink 182 Reaction GIF
 

That being said, Fancy Nancy on Disney+ Makes me want to want to hang out in a compressor building all day so that the tinnitus drowns out her shit French she’s always spouting.

Blippi is a fucking millionaire several times over, makes millions a year playing with fucking toys and acting all innocent and parents love him, while having a past that includes him shitting on a friend's chest or something.

And Ryan makes millions opening up fucking toys on YouTube.

Love the internet economy, right?

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted

I'm not even mad at blippy. Straight up jelly hater mode. How many actual hours does that guy work a year at this point? 500? Thats 1500 extra hours to bang his smoking hot gf and roll around on piles of money. Won't let my toddler watch because he's too annoying but for basically cheat coding life I gotta hand it to him. Set for life with minimal effort. The American Dream.

giphy.gif?cid=349c9dd7zxr5yovgwiq6ojhwadibhibvryxo6go277810n72&rid=giphy.gif

 

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89821

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I'm not even mad at blippy. Straight up jelly hater mode. How many actual hours does that guy work a year at this point? 500? Thats 1500 extra hours to bang his smoking hot gf and roll around on piles of money. Won't let my toddler watch because he's too annoying but for basically cheat coding life I gotta hand it to him. Set for life with minimal effort. The American Dream.

giphy.gif?cid=349c9dd7zxr5yovgwiq6ojhwadibhibvryxo6go277810n72&rid=giphy.gif

If my wife would let me, I'd start buying my kid a bunch of toys they care nothing about, have them open them up on video while pretending to be excited, and start uploading to YouTube.

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Blotto

Blotto 23584

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

Me: What’s a Blippi?

Me: [googles]
Me: 

Blink 182 Reaction GIF
 

 

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Blippi is a fucking millionaire several times over, makes millions a year playing with fucking toys and acting all innocent and parents love him, while having a past that includes him shitting on a friend's chest or something.

Double WTF....

Quote

Steezy Grossman
Stevin John started making gross out videos in 2013 under the persona of Steezy Grossman, a boy born as poop. Under his Steezy Grossman alias, John developed videos such as "Turdboy" and "Underwear Man". In a 2013 video John performed the Harlem shake on a toilet and defecated on a naked friend. When the video was unearthed by Buzzfeed in 2019, John said, "at the time, I thought this sort of thing was funny, but really it was stupid and tasteless, and I regret having ever done it." John used DMCA takedown notices to remove the video from social media and internet search engines.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89821

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Double WTF....

 

Everybody sweating the stock market, and he's making more dressing up like a fucking clown and making videos for toddlers.

If he were an actual stock, I'm guessing when the videos of him shitting on his friend came out last year, that his stock would have dropped a bit.

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NotActuallyALonghorn

NotActuallyALonghorn 4977

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

I'm not even mad at blippy. Straight up jelly hater mode. How many actual hours does that guy work a year at this point? 500? Thats 1500 extra hours to bang his smoking hot gf and roll around on piles of money. Won't let my toddler watch because he's too annoying but for basically cheat coding life I gotta hand it to him. Set for life with minimal effort. The American Dream.

giphy.gif?cid=349c9dd7zxr5yovgwiq6ojhwadibhibvryxo6go277810n72&rid=giphy.gif

 

 

I'm of the opinion that he would be a pretty cool dude to hang out with if the money hasn't gotten to his head. He has a skid steer song and thanks to him my four year old girl knows more about construction equipment than my wife. He's obviously doing something right, as annoying as his videos can be sometimes.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89821

Posted
Posted (edited)

Real answer @closetohumping:  Maybe a rough month or two, but ultimately the Electoral College votes on December 14, and are certified by Congress on January 6.  And that last part has been contested, but failed (see 2000 election).  

The problem is that this uncertainty, while fairly brief, would still come during the biggest retail season of the year, a retail season which is sure to be hobbled by the pandemic and economy.   Bake in that we won't have a vaccine by then, and that we will probably be seeing a lot of cases (but thankfully less deaths percentage-wise than earlier this year).  So we have:

  • Market uncertainty over the loser trying to delay (although I think the pressure from the corporate lobbyists on the politicians would be immense to get shit settled quickly)
  • Personal economic issues (job losses, trying to make the rent/mortgage payments, etc.)
  • Corporate economic issues (the big movie chains are probably finished by December, and the airlines will take another huge hit if the pandemic ramps back up in strength)
  • Retail issues due to the pandemic (in-person shopping) or economic/job losses
  • Pandemic issues (whether our healthcare systems take a huge hit, no vaccine, etc.),
  • Stimulus is probably not going to happen (I think Mnuchin is desperate to get a stimulus deal before the election, just to help the economy if there is electoral uncertainty).

It's a shorter version of the aggy rollercoaster for some.  

So buy AMZN and DIS?

Edited by atomheartbevo
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89821

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, BradInATX said:
2 hours ago, closetohumping said:
Hypothetical:  close election, loser uses every available channel to delay the coronation of the winner, we could have a lot of uncertainty on who will be our president.  What happens to the market then?

Do you even priced in already, bro?

Have we priced in Amazon buying up the empty theaters for their warehouses?

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BevoSwag

BevoSwag 272

Posted
Posted

Yeah.  I can't get my head around the price of BA.  I mean all the carriers are going broke and no amount of government stimulus can save these suckers so how can BA continue to sell aircraft for the next few years.  I've traded BA a few times, usually at a loss because markets ignore facts.

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