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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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Eastwood

Eastwood 4,394

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, BevoSwag said:

Yeah.  I can't get my head around the price of BA.  I mean all the carriers are going broke and no amount of government stimulus can save these suckers so how can BA continue to sell aircraft for the next few years.  I've traded BA a few times, usually at a loss because markets ignore facts.

As these airlines continue to lose money and shutter some operations, they need less planes. These fleets are old and only 3rd world airlines are going to buy them. This COVID thing will eventually be gone and the airlines that shed planes will need new planes.

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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BevoSwag

BevoSwag 272

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

As these airlines continue to lose money and shutter some operations, they need less planes. These fleets are old and only 3rd world airlines are going to buy them. This COVID thing will eventually be gone and the airlines that shed planes will need new planes.

Yeah but since i'm over 80 I don't think I have enough time to wait that out :)

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Blotto

Blotto 23,497

Posted
Posted

We will start getting q3 earnings reports, so company guidance will be interesting. Noticed the following this morning related to SAP:

Quote

SAP SE shares dropped as much as 21%, the biggest intraday fall since 1999, after the software company cut its revenue forecast for the full year and said it expects a fresh wave of lockdowns to hurt demand through the first half of 2021.

In a test for Christian Klein, who became sole chief executive officer in April, the pandemic will delay SAP’s goals for cloud revenue, overall sales and operating profit by one or two years, especially in hard-hit industries such as business travel, the Walldorf, Germany-based company said in a statement on Sunday. The drop in shares on Monday wiped 28 billion euros ($33.1 billion) off SAP’s market value.

The drop-off in SAP’s cloud revenue is a sign that companies are putting off making major decisions about updating their software, as the pandemic continues to limit any global economic recovery.

I think similarly positioned companies here in the US will start to echo these general sentiments. 1 year ago QQQ was at roughly 200. Pandemic still raging and the QQQ closed Friday around 285. Yeah there will be some pandemic outliers (ZM, PTON, etc), but I gotta believe its going to be harder and harder to present rosy forecasts for a large number of companies. 

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11,665

Posted
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4 hours ago, Blotto said:

We will start getting q3 earnings reports, so company guidance will be interesting. Noticed the following this morning related to SAP:

I think similarly positioned companies here in the US will start to echo these general sentiments. 1 year ago QQQ was at roughly 200. Pandemic still raging and the QQQ closed Friday around 285. Yeah there will be some pandemic outliers (ZM, PTON, etc), but I gotta believe its going to be harder and harder to present rosy forecasts for a large number of companies. 

Counterpoint:  SAP sucks shit through a straw.  Or maybe more precise SAP has a massive reputation for fuckshow implementations.  

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52-80

52-80 19,150

Posted
Posted (edited)

Had a leveraged short position against BBBY when it was trading around 14$. 

The motherfucker shot up to 20$ overnight from earnings...and then instead of deflating back down, it gapped up again to $23, and then continued climbing north of $25 over the course of 3 weeks. 

Took my lumps and exited my position yesterday around $24.  This morning it is -13% down. 

Just totally fuck my shit up fam

 

Edited by 52-80
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,543

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

circuit breakers be like:   "yo, miss me yet?"

we aren't even close to circuit breakers - S&P down about 95, first circuit breaker today would be down 237, second would be down 441, final circuit breaker is down 678 - unless those are hit after 3:25 and then it is a free for all

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52-80

52-80 19,150

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

we aren't even close to circuit breakers - S&P down about 95, first circuit breaker today would be down 237, second would be down 441, final circuit breaker is down 678 - unless those are hit after 3:25 and then it is a free for all

dont tempt fate man

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,543

Posted
Posted
On 10/14/2020 at 4:15 PM, Wally Fairway said:

Bigger balls and portfolio than I have, I'm dabbling in longer term calls on things doing well (or pure speculation) - COST, F, ALT, and a few others

 

On 10/14/2020 at 5:37 PM, 52-80 said:

why do you hate yourself?

Today is going to be a good day to unload 25% of my F calls (I already unloaded my ALT calls at a small loss, I reload those once it gets around $10)

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9,939

Posted
Posted

From a market person on close of October.

"October is over and stocks went out with a whimper. . . Markets were more volatile, largely from exogenous factors like the national elections and the coronavirus. And of course, that the story stocks are priced for fantasy. 

The US national election will be next Tuesday. 

Have a pleasant evening." 

 

https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com

 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9,939

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

the fed brrrrrrrr machine has been eerily silent of late

didn't they open the window wider for business easy loans this week?

Stimulus will come - after the election. The economy is heaving and it's time to inject the astroglide to get this old baby up and running. 

A lot of pain out there to be monetized - by Fed Policy (we saved your asses from the President™).

And it is time to rebuild.

 

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ZB'Tejas

ZB'Tejas 593

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Who fucking knows?!?!? 

I think $BA has a long road ahead but long term lots of upside. Just thinking uncertainty of the next week will give me an opportunity to buy back in lower and I'm trying to keep a good amount on the sideline to buy into stocks that take a dip.

Right now I'm probably over invested in o&g since it seems so cheap over the summer. But now that $80 a barrel is no where in sight.

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closetohumping

closetohumping 17,438

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I think $BA has a long road ahead but long term lots of upside. Just thinking uncertainty of the next week will give me an opportunity to buy back in lower and I'm trying to keep a good amount on the sideline to buy into stocks that take a dip.

Right now I'm probably over invested in o&g since it seems so cheap over the summer. But now that $80 a barrel is no where in sight.

Like always, it is so fuckign hard to sell when the shit is steaming

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52-80

52-80 19,150

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, 52-80 said:

whats the insider scoop on alijackma?

per bloomberg

 

Quote

two weeks ago, Ma somehow found the time to opine on China’s banking system at a high-profile financial forum in Shanghai, once again throwing himself into the eye of the storm.

In that speech, apart from labeling the global banking Basel Accords as an “old people’s club,” Ma said “systemic risk” is not the issue in China. Rather, China’s biggest risk is that it “lacks a financial ecosystem.” Chinese banks are like “pawn shops”, where collateral and guarantees are the hard currencies. As a result, some decided to go so big they are not allowed to fail

 

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CDAK

CDAK 216

Posted
Posted

I think the market's reacting to the GOP holding serve in Congress, particularly if the GOP is able to maintain an edge in the Senate. The prospects of significantly increased taxes and regulations are down when compared to pre-election prognostications. Bulls like divided government. So, the market is up considerably over the past couple of days.

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26,438

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Posted
1 minute ago, CDAK said:

I think the market's reacting to the GOP holding serve in Congress, particularly if the GOP is able to maintain an edge in the Senate. The prospects of significantly increased taxes and regulations are down when compared to pre-election prognostications. Bulls like divided government. So, the market is up considerably over the past couple of days.

No question. Gridlock in Washington means stability for business. No shocking changes. Wall Street loves that.

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