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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,162

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Posted (edited)

Oh yes.  All that oil I was sitting on collecting fat dividends and waiting?  Hahaha 

Im a R but the markets want calm and stimulus right now.  Joe B is a good thing.  And Senate will stay R or be split.  Perfect set up for a massive run gents.  
 

So watch everything go to shit in the near future.  

Edited by ChiTownDoc
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,587

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Oh yes.  All that oil I was sitting on collecting fat dividends and waiting?  Hahaha 

Im a R but the markets want calm and stimulus right now.  Joe B is a good thing.  And Senate will stay R or be split.  Perfect set up for a massive run gents.  
 

So watch everything go to shit in the near future.  

Good thing my SPY puts didn't clear on Friday, but my COST call are taking a beating today (slightly offset my BRKB calls and a small position with F calls)

I was looking at SPY straddles, but that shit has gotten really expensive

Edited by Wally Fairway
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Blotto

Blotto 23,579

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Good thing my SPY puts didn't clear on Friday, but my COST call are taking a beating today (slightly offset my BRKB calls and a small position with F calls)

I was looking at SPY straddles, but that shit has gotten really expensive

On the contrary, they are surprisingly cheap. After the jump up today, I kicked myself for not checking the price of the SPY350 straddle at close friday. Could have made a nice return. Even buying straddles today at 360 for a Wednesday expiration would cost you $5.50 per straddle and gives you 2 days of turmoil to come out ahead. Not terribly expensive for two days of trading. Doubt I will jump on that grenade, but $5 movements in todays tense climate doesnt seem that extreme all things considered. 

EDIT - at market close that 360 straddle that was ~5.50 a couple of hours ago you could sell at close for around $7.25 at close, or you could hold on for two more days in what should be a daily carnival due to the political mess brewin.  

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ZB'Tejas

ZB'Tejas 593

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On 11/3/2020 at 11:17 AM, ZB'Tejas said:

I think $BA has a long road ahead but long term lots of upside. Just thinking uncertainty of the next week will give me an opportunity to buy back in lower and I'm trying to keep a good amount on the sideline to buy into stocks that take a dip.

Well so far this turned out to be real shitty 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,587

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Posted

Ackman is trying it again (he bet against the market in February and says he turned $27 million into $2.6 billion in March)

https://www.ft.com/content/9697c211-c631-49b6-a91e-ae290fb02c3a

Quote

Ackman places new bet against corporate credit Billionaire says markets are once again complacent about the impact of pandemic
Pershing Square founder Bill Ackman made $2.6bn in March from a wager that markets were underestimating coronavirus risks © REUTERS

Bill Ackman has put on another bet that companies will struggle to pay their debts, just eight months after he cashed in a $2.6bn profit from a similar trade at the start of the pandemic. The founder of Pershing Square told attendees at the Financial Times’ Dealmakers conference on Tuesday that markets had once again become too complacent about the coronavirus. 
At the start of this week he put on a new trade hedging his equity exposure with insurance against corporate defaults, he said.
“I hope we lose money on this next hedge,” Mr Ackman said. “We’re in a treacherous time generally and what’s fascinating is the same bet we put on eight months ago is available on the same terms as if there had never been a fire and on the probability that the world is going to be fine.”
He said the new hedge is close to 30 per cent the size of the bet he placed in late February, when he bought a set of huge insurance policies linked to $71bn of corporate debt.

The billionaire investor anticipated governments would be forced to shut large swaths of their economies in order to curb the spread of coronavirus, leaving many indebted companies exposed. When that swiftly proved accurate, the value of the insurance ballooned and Pershing Square exited the trade in mid-March, pocketing $2.6bn in profits after having only paid $27m in premiums.
Mr Ackman chose to plough the winnings back into equities, adding to several of Pershing Square’s existing stakes and acquiring new positions that set the company up to profit from a stock market rally. 
Pershing is up 44 per cent, year to date, having been down 7 per cent before the successful bet. Mr Ackman said he remained optimistic about the economy over the long term, saying that it was likely to see a “robust recovery”, but he predicted the next few months would be “a challenging time”.
Pershing Square placed its new bet against corporate credit on the day that Pfizer and BioNTech released positive trial data on their Covid-19 vaccine, causing markets to take a sudden bullish turn. The news was “actually bearish for the next few months,” however, Mr Ackman said, because it was likely to make people more complacent about wearing masks and less likely to view the virus as a threat.

 

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XYZ

XYZ 2,154

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Posted

Yo, I have a stupid question. Years ago, when I used to give a shit about the stock market, options would expire on the third Friday of the month. Now I’m seeing options expiring almost every day. What’s up with that? Is the “third Friday” a thing of the past?

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669

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i feel like we're going to see another good buying opportunity over the next month as people freak out over this next COVID bump.  maybe a miniature version of march's fall with the rebound soon after again.  enough people are optimistic about the vaccine that it would be a littler version on both the down and the up imo

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Johnny Chimpo

Johnny Chimpo 479

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Posted
1 hour ago, XYZ said:

Yo, I have a stupid question. Years ago, when I used to give a shit about the stock market, options would expire on the third Friday of the month. Now I’m seeing options expiring almost every day. What’s up with that? Is the “third Friday” a thing of the past?

Options have gotten a lot more popular and now they have weekly expirations and others. I don’t know all that much about it, but they definitely have many more expiries on highly liquid securities. 

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52-80

52-80 19,256

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, XYZ said:

Yo, I have a stupid question. Years ago, when I used to give a shit about the stock market, options would expire on the third Friday of the month. Now I’m seeing options expiring almost every day. What’s up with that? Is the “third Friday” a thing of the past?

More ways to gamble what's not to love

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SaucyJack

SaucyJack 3,504

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Posted
On 11/11/2020 at 8:25 AM, Anastasis said:

Question for the c-sweet big ballas. When a CEO for example enters into a planned stock sale agreement, say 20k shared on dates x, y, and z if share are priced above a certain amount, do they have visibility into the exact dates that the sales will be processed?

I've had exposure to various plans.  If I understand your Q correctly, the answer would be yes, but only after the sale transaction had taken place.

 

On 11/13/2020 at 3:50 PM, bluto said:

I cashed out today, took the L on some exxon but got the bump today/this wk. catch y’all when covid kicks the market in the nuts again this winter

For the last 30 years, I've had an extremely aggressive equity portfolio (95% +).  Cost averaging, riding indexes and individual stocks up, down, up (portfolio was down 32% at one point this year). 

With that said,  I'd been waiting to raise cash, and finally pulled the trigger day after election continuing through end of Friday. My equity allocation is down

to 71%.   My plan is to get to 55-65% fairly soon, then either way buy back in.  

We'll see, but I feel like things are going to slow down again, even without govt intervention.  People will self-quarantine. Relief packages will mitigate some.

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4,394

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Posted

Your resident GME bull checking in. Looks like there might be a hostile takeover by Ryan Cohen in the making.

https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/RC Ventures Letter to GameStop.pdf

Cohen was the Chewy founder who cashed out, then cashed in on GME, which caused the initial price spike into the console season.

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B00M

B00M 6,465

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10 hours ago, 52-80 said:

i expect fake news vaccine announcement every week for a manufactured market bounce, then dip, then bounce

Aren't these preliminary phase 3 results coming out in press releases from CEOs? What's fake about them?

Unless I'm mistaken, we have ~4 more of these sort of releases coming. The bump will probably diminish but hopefully it gets us thru the shit storm that's coming in the next ~2 months

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23,484

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2 minutes ago, B00M said:

Aren't these preliminary phase 3 results coming out in press releases from CEOs? What's fake about them?

Unless I'm mistaken, we have ~4 more of these sort of releases coming. The bump will probably diminish but hopefully it gets us thru the shit storm that's coming in the next ~2 months

Figure a press release for PFE when they file their EUA request, and one when they get it.  Same for MRNA.  AZN at some point also gonna read out. I dumped my MRNA today.  Need to exit the PFE position. I went heavy with AZN early.  Ended up betting the wrong horse. 

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52-80

52-80 19,256

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18 minutes ago, B00M said:

Aren't these preliminary phase 3 results coming out in press releases from CEOs? What's fake about them?

Unless I'm mistaken, we have ~4 more of these sort of releases coming. The bump will probably diminish but hopefully it gets us thru the shit storm that's coming in the next ~2 months

In the sense that there is a large market overreaction to the “news”, in no small part to the optimistic misinterpretation of such news, which the Pharma representatives wittingly and happily go on MSNBC to pump. 

 

This has happened now a couple of times this year and if retail had bought after each such announcement it would not have been great. Meanwhile, of course, the Pharma CEO have been serious net sellers of their positions.  MRNA CEO has been steadily unloading his shares $1M+ at a time....

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52-80

52-80 19,256

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1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

PFE CEO serendipitously offloaded a big chunk coincidentally on the morning of their announcement. 

the only sale of his tenure, and 1 week after the a gigantic corporate buyback (10x average size of previous buybacks)...... just nice happy coincidences

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Sam Lin

Sam Lin 3,561

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4 hours ago, 52-80 said:

I flipped out of my Tesla position for AMD last Friday.

What do you see in AMD going forward (% wise?)

Just curious as to your thought process. I've been in AMD a while, made a ton of money on its rise on this gen product, but I've been rotating out of it gradually as I don't see it doubling again from current values in a year or two, whereas I do see that potential in some other sectors.

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52-80

52-80 19,256

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9 minutes ago, Sam Lin said:

What do you see in AMD going forward (% wise?)

Just curious as to your thought process. I've been in AMD a while, made a ton of money on its rise on this gen product, but I've been rotating out of it gradually as I don't see it doubling again from current values in a year or two, whereas I do see that potential in some other sectors.

Not trying to paint crosshairs on a price target because it implies trust in some underlying methodology to derive proper value.  And it's seen with tech that if you do that, the price will continue to run away from you.  So rather it's a comparative trade based on the hunch that INTC will continue to suffer, and AMD as a brand reaching critical point for mainstream appeal (not just enthusiast appeal), and also having more attractive per-share pricing than NVDA for retail investors. 

I went in "late" on amazon and tesla and happy with the outcome of those. 

What sectors do you see the potential for doubling?  Im doing that in energy using long-dated call options on some beaten-down companies with low volatility hence cheap premium -- good leverage for more upside exposure while using not too much cash.  Did that with HAL and SLB and got a nice little kick.  Actually did the same with TSM this morning (to loop back to semiconductor chat)

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