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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15347

Posted
Posted
On 11/15/2020 at 11:41 AM, SaucyJack said:

I've had exposure to various plans.  If I understand your Q correctly, the answer would be yes, but only after the sale transaction had taken place.

 

For the last 30 years, I've had an extremely aggressive equity portfolio (95% +).  Cost averaging, riding indexes and individual stocks up, down, up (portfolio was down 32% at one point this year). 

With that said,  I'd been waiting to raise cash, and finally pulled the trigger day after election continuing through end of Friday. My equity allocation is down

to 71%.   My plan is to get to 55-65% fairly soon, then either way buy back in.  

We'll see, but I feel like things are going to slow down again, even without govt intervention.  People will self-quarantine. Relief packages will mitigate some.

I foresee a an absolute slog going forward in some market segments.  With COVID showing us how irrelevant massive office space is becoming for employers, there is going to be a reckoning in the commercial real estate market, and naturally, the financial sector.  REITs, Banking, and other collateralized assets are going to be decimated.  Right now, they're all rearranging the chairs on the Titanic and seeing who can be the last one to jump into the life raft.  Not to mention the ongoing slog in the O&G sector which is also tightening the credit/leverage/asset ratios in the financial sector.  Not to mention the massive amount of student loan debt that is just rotting like a raw egg in the August Texas sun.  This will be worse than the '08 bomb, by quite a magnitude.  

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B00M

B00M 6420

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I foresee a an absolute slog going forward in some market segments.  With COVID showing us how irrelevant massive office space is becoming for employers, there is going to be a reckoning in the commercial real estate market, and naturally, the financial sector.  REITs, Banking, and other collateralized assets are going to be decimated.  Right now, they're all rearranging the chairs on the Titanic and seeing who can be the last one to jump into the life raft.  Not to mention the ongoing slog in the O&G sector which is also tightening the credit/leverage/asset ratios in the financial sector.  Not to mention the massive amount of student loan debt that is just rotting like a raw egg in the August Texas sun.  This will be worse than the '08 bomb, by quite a magnitude.  

ok_ok-DMID1-5ktmpblam-415x250.gif

So where's your 401(k)? 

 

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SuperSport

SuperSport 1333

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

I foresee a an absolute slog going forward in some market segments.  With COVID showing us how irrelevant massive office space is becoming for employers, there is going to be a reckoning in the commercial real estate market, and naturally, the financial sector.  REITs, Banking, and other collateralized assets are going to be decimated.  Right now, they're all rearranging the chairs on the Titanic and seeing who can be the last one to jump into the life raft.  Not to mention the ongoing slog in the O&G sector which is also tightening the credit/leverage/asset ratios in the financial sector.  Not to mention the massive amount of student loan debt that is just rotting like a raw egg in the August Texas sun.  This will be worse than the '08 bomb, by quite a magnitude.  

Counterpoint:

Money Printer Go Brr The Fed GIF - MoneyPrinterGoBrr TheFed FederalReserveSystem - Discover & Share GIFs

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Sam Lin

Sam Lin 3559

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Not trying to paint crosshairs on a price target because it implies trust in some underlying methodology to derive proper value.  And it's seen with tech that if you do that, the price will continue to run away from you.  So rather it's a comparative trade based on the hunch that INTC will continue to suffer, and AMD as a brand reaching critical point for mainstream appeal (not just enthusiast appeal), and also having more attractive per-share pricing than NVDA for retail investors. 

I went in "late" on amazon and tesla and happy with the outcome of those. 

What sectors do you see the potential for doubling?  Im doing that in energy using long-dated call options on some beaten-down companies with low volatility hence cheap premium -- good leverage for more upside exposure while using not too much cash.  Did that with HAL and SLB and got a nice little kick.  Actually did the same with TSM this morning (to loop back to semiconductor chat)

Completely agreed on "proper value" price targets, they're outdated and useless in irrational modern markets.

Understood as a comparative trade, though INTC and NVDA are both in better shape in terms of pipeline and product than they were 2yr ago when AMD started its skyrocket. INTC on CPU finally has a few processor use cases where they have an edge, and NVDA on GPU with the 30xx series has solidly retaken the performance lead while also greatly cutting in to the value argument on msrp. AMD will pick up a ton of mobile market share in the next gen of laptops, and they do have a bunch of market share they can take across data center and desktop as well. I'm not completely exiting, but I've exited maybe half of my holdings.

Looking at the next 2yr window:

Oilfield CEQP is an easy one to expect 100% or more while also pocketing a great dividend at current pricing. Internet/data/cybersecurity is another - NET will have 100%, but it has wide attention. Speculative, but smaller cybersecurity firms have potential for much more if they have a breakthrough. Somewhat related, data hardware providers such as UI, as we shift to more telework and work-from-home as a permanent shift in work habits due to Covid. The move to wfh along with the increase in cybersecurity needs leaves a gaping hole, there are very few well-developed solutions that are high security but home-deployable and supportable. Related, but in the category of getting in late, MSFT will play a key role in answering this question while the big dogs like Cisco really only stand to lose market.

Travel is a sector that already has a ton of hype but has some opportunity with proper analysis - though the broad sector has already been well bought on expectations of vaccine Covid recovery, I think there will be variation within sector as people's behavior will have shifted after this Covid situation. Find the niches within travel where people are going to flock, avoid the ones where people will be slow to return (cruises are the latter, IMO). Also, everyone is focusing on the travel providers right now (cruise, resort, airline) but comparatively little attention to the travel equipment suppliers - for example, Samsonite stock has hardly recovered, and when people resume travel, they'll be buying luggage.

Health/fitness - people have gotten fat at home. UA has had a soft recovery compared to others like LULU. Gym companies like PLNT will see a surge once vaccine makes going out available again.

I don't do margin or option trading, leaves a ton of potential on the table but I simply don't understand it enough.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

Posted
Posted
On 11/18/2020 at 11:27 AM, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

started reading about hydrogen in sept.  bought a bunch of FCEL in october in batches from 2.12 to 2.54.  three weeks later its 5.41.  i'm new to this game so it is still exciting to me.

eyewaggle.gif

now $8.  quadrupled in the month i've own it.  

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

That's a shit take. There is money sitting out there that Congress is not appropriating and the law was written to end on Dec 31st. 

You don't mothball a new carrier in the middle of a War. It's a bullshit political move.

Keep those windows open at the Fed until this stabilizes. Re-purpose as necessary. One of the lessons from 2008 was we ended it too soon. Stupid to repeat that mistake.

fredgraph.png?g=y4CN

 

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52-80

52-80 19175

Posted
Posted

fucking Russell/small cap market is having itself a fucking year.  Spy and Nasdaq been buoyed by the big tech--rest of that composition fucking lags--and i thought Russell would be the most susceptible to business slowdown...but the fucking thing is steaming along

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Saw this morning where Biden plans to tap Yellen for Treasury.  Not sure what that means for Fed/Treasury brrrt.

The Fed and Treasury will keep the markets propped up with brrrt (MMT), until they can't. Yellen understands stimulus shut down too quickly after 2008, but she is not a proponent of MMT for social spending/stimulus. Another exogenous shock to the system will be difficult to control (especially as the USD battles to remain the gold standard [stet] for fiat currencies), so keeping the financial markets afloat and intact are economic stabilizers in a trickle down sense of the notion.  

Yellen is officially anti-MMT for fiscal spending. For monetary purposes, she favors MMT to prop up the markets.

She will probably make the same neoliberal economic mistake of "means testing" the fiscal response, which will make relief measures unpopular by those not receiving any help and easier to criticize (the divide strategy to minimize fiscal response). There will be pressure to end brrrt sooner than later once Biden is in office as R's start becoming deficit hawks and anti-commie warriors again. Neoliberals in both parties love austerity for the people and socialization of losses in the market.

It's like a Mandelbrot set - the same fractal repeating over and over again. 

TLDR  - Brrrt unchanged by Yellen in the near future. Once this wave of covid passes and a vaccine is available, she will reassess the need for fiscal or monetary relief, as will Powell.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

You don't get to write laws if you are a Cabinet Official.

The Treasury Sec't had the power under the law to easily extend the Fed Windows.  In fact, he extended the life of some of the windows. It was a petty political move and bullshit in the current economic environment. He has been roundly criticized by the Fed and the Chamber of Commerce (those bastions of communism).

You don't want to die on this hill. 

Quote

The biggest loser seems to be midsize businesses that appear to have just begun taking up loans in the Fed’s Main Street Lending Facility. Terms for the facility had recently been amended to allow for smaller loans of as little as $100,000. It will likely close to new lending in a couple weeks and can only be restated with agreement between the Fed and the Treasury.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce criticized Mnuchin for that very reason, saying: “A surprise termination of the Federal Reserve’s emergency liquidity programs, including the Main Street Lending Program, prematurely and unnecessarily ties the hands of the incoming administration, and closes the door on important liquidity options for businesses at a time when they need them most.”

Mnuchin did extend for 90 days three programs that did not use CARES Act Funds, including facilities that backstopped commercial paper and money markets.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/mnuchin-decision-cuts-fed-lending-power-but-sources-say-emergency-programs-can-be-revived.html

 

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52-80

52-80 19175

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, pearlandhorn said:

SLB and LUV are killing it for me.  Bought SLB for $17/share and LUV for $34. 

got some SLB calls in at $17.   exercised half of it days before it jumped up.  was too late to buy HAL as well.  gonna get back in SLB if it goes below 20

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted

Holy shit I love checking my accounts every 5 min on days like this.  All those oil names I bought low and was holding just for the dividends are taking off and vast majority of covid plays also still going up.  And to top it off my stupid ass picks like NKLA are fucking flying too.  I can't believe how this year is shaping up overall.  I'm sure I just jinxed it but zero fucks...right now I feel great. 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

airlines have been on a absolute run for me.  Even my dog AAL running now. 

I chose to go into the oil names because of the dividends but it was the same play.  I actually think we see a big run from now through spring 2021 then when things actually improve the market struggles because all that news is priced in.  Such a stupid market but I'm a stupid person so it works out well - sometimes - temporarily.  

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23475

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

I’ve done nicely on LUV bought in under $30. 

Fuck yeah.  I bought in the 30s and have done pretty fucking good with a ~3m return. 

Bought a basket of LUV, DAL, AAL as a vaccine play and it has turned out better than my direct vaccine play of MRNA, PFE, AZN. 

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bluto

bluto 4932

Posted
Posted
anyone playing PLTR?
and why is Nordstroms flying through the fucking moon

Nordstrom q3 was strong. I think high end retailers are going to crush holiday sales projections as those customers have increased their wealth and buy haven’t been able to spend this year.
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52-80

52-80 19175

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, bluto said:


Nordstrom q3 was strong. I think high end retailers are going to crush holiday sales projections as those customers have increased their wealth and buy haven’t been able to spend this year.

well, why you gotta go and put it like that tho

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