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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Celery Man

Celery Man 21095

Posted
Posted

I was going to ask a dumbass question about interpreting performance literature for the blackrock S&P thing in my new work 401k. But it's just still not updated from Oct 30th, which was a bad time for 1month/3month S&P returns.

Personally I bought on the 12th and sold on the 18th. I'm all in on GE now - I just have a feeling 2021 is their year.

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52-80

52-80 19377

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Posted
50 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

2020: $14 Trillion in additional aggregate money supply created to prop up the financial system.

Worldwide, there is now $94.8 Trillion in aggregate money supply. 

https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/one-number-mattered-to-global-markets-in-2020

 

Where can we get some of that sweet aggregate cheese ?

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52-80

52-80 19377

Posted
Posted
On 12/29/2020 at 1:33 AM, Wally Fairway said:

Certainly, Surly 1%'ers will not qualify - but I'm going to use my stimulus money to put deposits on a couple of TSLA Cybertrucks and a couple of GM Hummers; probably just waste the rest.

A fractional share of TSLA will go a long way (2 da moon)

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5444

Posted
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9 hours ago, GRHorn said:

I’m sure it’s going to be fine.
 

Is going to have a ton of CR type implications but most are blind to it. 

Since we can’t stop it, I guess we just take advantage of it, while protecting ourselves. 

I agree 100 percent.  In history when this has happened inflation followed.  This seems different but I have no clue what is to come.  I suspect tangible assets like real estate are “safer” but who knows?  I feel no like the stock market in general is very overpriced but I’ve made a killing in stonk playing.  Are we still in TINA mode?  And for how much longer?

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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30 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I agree 100 percent.  In history when this has happened inflation followed.  This seems different but I have no clue what is to come.  I suspect tangible assets like real estate are “safer” but who knows?  I feel no like the stock market in general is very overpriced but I’ve made a killing in stonk playing.  Are we still in TINA mode?  And for how much longer?

I’m still taking advantage of it via being long tech while protecting myself via bitcoin. Probably will buy some land this year as well. Either river or beach type property. 

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Parliament

Parliament 14594

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Didn't think this deserves its own thread: watch grain commodities. They're up for on account of Brazilian drought. A 2012 pattern is creaping into the US. That year was a historic drought here. Commodities generally do well during inflation and all the Brrrrr we have going you gotta wonder of inflation will light up some.

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52-80

52-80 19377

Posted
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1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Didn't think this deserves its own thread: watch grain commodities. They're up for on account of Brazilian drought. A 2012 pattern is creaping into the US. That year was a historic drought here. Commodities generally do well during inflation and all the Brrrrr we have going you gotta wonder of inflation will light up some.

if it's not frozen orange juice concentrates, we're not interested

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5444

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Just now, Incredulity

sorry guys, I bought a few stocks last week so of course this would be the case.

After the gains of last year I figured there would be some liquidation of positions in the first trading day of the new year to avoid taxes on 2020 gains. At least I hope that’s all it is.

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11876

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2 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

After the gains of last year I figured there would be some liquidation of positions in the first trading day of the new year to avoid taxes on 2020 gains. At least I hope that’s all it is.

I don’t think anyone believes that 2021 has any chance of lower tax rates than 2020.  Which would mean any tax motivated selling would have occurred prior to new year.

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5444

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Just now, Incredulity
2 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

After the gains of last year I figured there would be some liquidation of positions in the first trading day of the new year to avoid taxes on 2020 gains. At least I hope that’s all it is.

I don’t think anyone believes that 2021 has any chance of lower tax rates than 2020.  Which would mean any tax motivated selling would have occurred prior to new year.

I was thinking more along the lines of losses offsetting gains. If you had none in 2020, then it is advantageous to sell now to book gains against losses this year.

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B00M

B00M 6734

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Posted

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nasdaq-futures-tumble-investors-brace-073128258.html

A so-called "blue wave" would give more scope for President-elect Joe Biden to act on his reform plans including new COVID-19 stimulus, but it could also mean higher corporate taxes and more regulations for technology behemoths, which had led Wall Street's recovery from a coronavirus-driven crash last year.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9973

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

The nice thing about digital currency is that you don't have to use a wheelbarrow to buy a loaf of bread.

Phillips Curve is dead. Fed should have told you up front.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2020-08-28/with-new-monetary-policy-approach-fed-lays-phillips-curve-to-rest

Quote

The relationship between inflation and employment was documented by A.W. Phillips, an economist from New Zealand who published a paper on the topic using British data on unemployment and wages from 1861 to 1957.

The concept became a key aspect of the Fed's decisions on interest rates, motivating officials to start raising borrowing costs when they feared that inflation could soon take off.

But policymakers and economists have noticed that the relationship between inflation and employment has weakened over the past several years.

For example, between 1960 and 1985, a one-percentage-point drop in the gap between the unemployment rate and what economists viewed to be the long-run level of unemployment, would lead inflation to grow by 0.18 percentage point as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures, according to a 2018 analysis by the Washington-based Brookings Institution.

From 1986 to 2007, that effect was reduced to less than half of its previous impact and it "essentially disappeared" after 2008, the analysts wrote https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/08/21/the-hutchins-center-explains-the-phillips-curve.

That shift, known as the flattening of the Phillips curve, made the tool less useful for predicting inflation and making monetary policy decisions, said Karim Basta, chief economist for III Capital Management. "The main thing is that the Fed is not going to be preemptive in raising interest rates," Basta said. "It's going to be more reactive to actual inflation."

That shift gives the Fed more flexibility to make sure that all kinds of workers are benefiting from the economy before it begins to raise rates, Brusuelas said, nodding to the change in the Fed's statement saying that maximum employment should be "broad-based and inclusive."

"It's a good thing for the economy," he said. "It means we're going to have more people employed once we emerge from the current crisis."

 

 

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hornbri

hornbri 1508

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15 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

I think Joe B wants to change the LTCG from 0/15/20 to 0/15/39.x

which i support tbh

I can see why people would support increasing LTCG (kinda) but why would you support LTCG be greater than ordinary income (top bracket 37%)? 

I don't think he would have the votes to do that. 

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