Markets still falling like whoa

[Eastwood 4394]

Sell!!!!

No. Still holding. January 15 calls, which were heavily bought, expire tomorrow. I exercised mine this morning. They were $10 strike bought back in the summer.

[DonkeyCigars 143]

Thought this was interesting:

Affirm raised $500 million in a private Series G funding round in September. That was about four months ago. The venture capitalists that bought in that round—including Founders Fund, Lightspeed Venture Partners and Spark Capital, all of which have seats on Affirm’s board of directors—paid $19.93 per share.[5] Affirm first filed papers for its IPO in November; presumably it was pretty far along in planning the IPO when it raised that round in September. The Series G investors were not making a long-term investment in a speculative illiquid private company; they were tiding it over for a few months until the IPO. When the IPO launched with a $33-to-$38 range, those Series G investors had a 66%-to-91% paper profit. When it priced at $49, they had a 146% profit. When the stock closed at $97.24 yesterday, they had a 388% profit. In four months.

[Anastasis 23483]

Go LGND. 

[UTexasFight 9528]

On 1/14/2021 at 2:44 PM, DonkeyCigars said:

Thought this was interesting:

Affirm raised $500 million in a private Series G funding round in September. That was about four months ago. The venture capitalists that bought in that round—including Founders Fund, Lightspeed Venture Partners and Spark Capital, all of which have seats on Affirm’s board of directors—paid $19.93 per share.[5] Affirm first filed papers for its IPO in November; presumably it was pretty far along in planning the IPO when it raised that round in September. The Series G investors were not making a long-term investment in a speculative illiquid private company; they were tiding it over for a few months until the IPO. When the IPO launched with a $33-to-$38 range, those Series G investors had a 66%-to-91% paper profit. When it priced at $49, they had a 146% profit. When the stock closed at $97.24 yesterday, they had a 388% profit. In four months.

 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13119]

On 1/13/2021 at 4:43 AM, TexasEd said:

still kicking myself for not going to cash last January when the first reports were coming in from China and Senators were lying to us.

Every instinct was telling me to pull out, but pulling out is always easier said than done, am I right?

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

On 1/18/2021 at 3:59 AM, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Every instinct was telling me to pull out, but pulling out is always easier said than done, am I right?

"And that's why your mother and I got married, son"

[Hank_Hill 18894]

Made 150% gains on GME calls today now putting some of that in to GME puts for tomorrow. Stocks are weird. 

[Wally Fairway 5586]

Note to self:
When the shit hits the fan (and it will), and the market is down and things look gloomy - remember that there are days like today when investing looks like its is easy peasy.

(jinxer no jinxing, jinxer no jinxing, JINXER NO JINXING)

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

3 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Note to self:
When the shit hits the fan (and it will), and the market is down and things look gloomy - remember that there are days like today when investing looks like its is easy peasy.

(jinxer no jinxing, jinxer no jinxing, JINXER NO JINXING)

It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat. But the man worthwhile, Is the man who can smile, when his shorts are too tight in the seat.

[XYZ 2154]

Isn't it mind-boggling to y'all that the stock market keeps making new highs when a big chunk of the economy has essentially been destroyed?

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

Just now, XYZ said:

Isn't it mind-boggling to y'all that the stock market keeps making new highs when a big chunk of the economy has essentially been destroyed?

Nope:

[hornbri 1407]

1 hour ago, XYZ said:

Isn't it mind-boggling to y'all that the stock market keeps making new highs when a big chunk of the economy has essentially been destroyed?

I just don't think it has been "destroyed" as much as you think. The GDP looks like it will be close to flat in 2020, the stock market is up, unemployment is down but shows signs of recovering quickly as the pandemic ends and on top of all that there is another 1.9T stimulus in the works. 

The short term future does not look bad. 

[EuroHorn 3268]

On 1/18/2021 at 4:59 AM, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Every instinct was telling me to pull out, but pulling out is always easier said than done, am I right?

Pulling out is easy.  Getting back in is the hard part 

[Blotto 23578]

23 minutes ago, hornbri said:

I just don't think it has been "destroyed" as much as you think. The GDP looks like it will be close to flat in 2020, the stock market is up, unemployment is down but shows signs of recovering quickly as the pandemic ends and on top of all that there is another 1.9T stimulus in the works. 

The short term future does not look bad. 

Estimates I have seen project the GDP will be down somewhere between 2-4% for the year.

Using data from 1961-2019 there were only 8 years with negative GDP, so we're looking at either the worst year in the last 60 years or the 2nd worst year

Year	GDP	Change
2009	-2.54%	-2.40%
1982	-1.80%	-4.34%
1974	-0.54%	-6.19%
1980	-0.26%	-3.42%
1970	-0.25%	-3.35%
1975	-0.21%	0.34%
2008	-0.14%	-2.01%
1991	-0.11%	-1.99%

The rich got richer (thanks stock market) but the 50% of the US population that had no money in the stock market didnt make out nearly so well. A large portion are on shakier financial footing than they were entering the year. The rich can only spend so much on cars, food, travel etc... you need all of your population doing well financially for the overall GDP to recover. I don't see that type of recovery for a couple of years at least. 

The S&P growing 16% and the Nasdaq growing almost 50% are ridiculous in the scheme of things. But with no alternate place to put money, the ponzi scheme continues as long as the government props it up. Bubbles come to an end, and this one will as well. 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

27 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Pulling out is easy.  Getting back in is the hard part 

FOMO pulls and pushes.

[EuroHorn 3268]

Most estimates I’ve seen is GDP about +4.2% for 2021 

Edited January 20, 2021 by EuroHorn

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

8 minutes ago, Blotto said:

But with no alternate place to put money, the ponzi scheme continues as long as the government props it up. Bubbles come to an end, and this one will as well. 

You must be fun at parties.

[hornbri 1407]

26 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Estimates I have seen project the GDP will be down somewhere between 2-4% for the year.

Using data from 1961-2019 there were only 8 years with negative GDP, so we're looking at either the worst year in the last 60 years or the 2nd worst year

Year	GDP	Change
2009	-2.54%	-2.40%
1982	-1.80%	-4.34%
1974	-0.54%	-6.19%
1980	-0.26%	-3.42%
1970	-0.25%	-3.35%
1975	-0.21%	0.34%
2008	-0.14%	-2.01%
1991	-0.11%	-1.99%

Right - the GDP will be close to flat, down 2-4% that is a far cry from "big chunk of the economy has essentially been destroyed". 

Quote

the 50% of the US population that had no money in the stock market didnt make out nearly so well. A large portion are on shakier financial footing than they were entering the year.

Exactly, that is where the 1.9T stimulus starts to come in. If that passes it is going to go a long way to shrink that time to recovery for those groups. 

Combined those are 2 of the reasons the market is still going up. 

Quote

Bubbles come to an end, and this one will as well. 

They all do, but I am not foolish enough to think I can time when that is going to happen. I will continue to ride the market up and down and then back up again to new highs. 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

46 minutes ago, Blotto said:

but the 50% of the US population that had no money in the stock market

50% of the US population doesn't pay income tax either, but that doesn't slow down Government spending.

[hornbri 1407]

I worry about inflation, with the way the US is printing dollars it is bound to happen. When it does cash is the last place you want to be, I suppose Gold would be the best. 

The stock market will likely keep up with inflation, so while you might not make as much money in stocks my hope is it at least does not decrease in value like cash would. 

[EuroHorn 3268]

8 minutes ago, hornbri said:

I worry about inflation, with the way the US is printing dollars it is bound to happen. When it does cash is the last place you want to be, I suppose Gold would be the best. 

The stock market will likely keep up with inflation, so while you might not make as much money in stocks my hope is it at least does not decrease in value like cash would. 

We would have seen inflation by now.  Banks are holding more cash in reserves and so a lot of the money through the Feds actions has not been circulated to the general public in terms of loans. 

While  gold might be a good place to keep money during inflation, so would non dividend paying stocks.  Value stocks where companies can pass on rising product costs during inflation to the consumer should hold up ok. 

Edited January 20, 2021 by EuroHorn

[elfenix 34332]

2 hours ago, EuroHorn said:

Pulling out is easy.  Getting back in is the hard part 

and the reverse is true for south austin's mom

[Wally Fairway 5586]

3 hours ago, Blotto said:

Estimates I have seen project the GDP will be down somewhere between 2-4% for the year.

Using data from 1961-2019 there were only 8 years with negative GDP, so we're looking at either the worst year in the last 60 years or the 2nd worst year

Year	GDP	Change
2009	-2.54%	-2.40%
1982	-1.80%	-4.34%
1974	-0.54%	-6.19%
1980	-0.26%	-3.42%
1970	-0.25%	-3.35%
1975	-0.21%	0.34%
2008	-0.14%	-2.01%
1991	-0.11%	-1.99%

The rich got richer (thanks stock market) but the 50% of the US population that had no money in the stock market didnt make out nearly so well. A large portion are on shakier financial footing than they were entering the year. The rich can only spend so much on cars, food, travel etc... you need all of your population doing well financially for the overall GDP to recover. I don't see that type of recovery for a couple of years at least. 

The S&P growing 16% and the Nasdaq growing almost 50% are ridiculous in the scheme of things. But with no alternate place to put money, the ponzi scheme continues as long as the government props it up. Bubbles come to an end, and this one will as well. 

[Continental Op 3934]

I keep thinking that eventually Netflix will get chewed up by the fact every studio will have their own streaming service at some point and I keep getting proven wrong. 

[Wally Fairway 5586]

I am weighing taking 10-20% off the table, taking some of my gains and playing the waiting game.
It is a horrible strategy, but puts have become too expensive, I have some SPY LEAP calls that have tone quite well and I'm thinking about selling 1/2 of those (which is just about my investment in them), and I've realized that I'm overweight in one stonk (ALPP) so hopefully it runs up to the NASDAQ listing to take some of that original investment off the table. 

But I hate being in cash - so it all gets back to TINA, and to a lessor extent FOMO.....talk me out of it, or into it. What say ye?

[bluto 4942]

I am weighing taking 10-20% off the table, taking some of my gains and playing the waiting game.
It is a horrible strategy, but puts have become too expensive, I have some SPY LEAP calls that have tone quite well and I'm thinking about selling 1/2 of those (which is just about my investment in them), and I've realized that I'm overweight in one stonk (ALPP) so hopefully it runs up to the NASDAQ listing to take some of that original investment off the table. 
But I hate being in cash - so it all gets back to TINA, and to a lessor extent FOMO.....talk me out of it, or into it. What say ye?

Love when a stonk bleeds over into the big kid thread, and I was way heavy on alpp previously, dumped a lot on this wks run.

I’m staying around 50% cash and taking cuts here and there. If we can get through the first few wks of new admin without issue, it sure seems like the run will be on given Yellen’s brrrrt and new admin pushing vax rollout bigly (we’ll see about that tho)

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

FOMO alert. FOMO alert.

[Eastwood 4394]

Made 150% gains on GME calls today now putting some of that in to GME puts for tomorrow. Stocks are weird. 

I wouldn't want to be anywhere near GME with anything other than house money, right now. It's going to rip one way or another and the losing side is going to lose big. My cost basis is $7.50 a share, so I'm fine if it retreats heavily. But if you want to play this stock now, only do it with fun money, nothing that you will need in the future.

[Eastwood 4394]

GME in a nutshell: Hedge funds got greedy and started shorting synthetic shares. Now they can't cover. Those who hold actual shares now set the price.

Holy shit, I was right.

[workswithseed 2111]

6 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

GME in a nutshell: Hedge funds got greedy and started shorting synthetic shares. Now they can't cover. Those who hold actual shares now set the price.

Holy shit, I was right.

Holy fuck I missed on that ride.

[Anastasis 23483]

GME at an all time high lol. 

[Blotto 23578]

1 hour ago, Eastwood said:

GME in a nutshell: Hedge funds got greedy and started shorting synthetic shares. Now they can't cover. Those who hold actual shares now set the price.

Holy shit, I was right.

I think you had this pegged months ago. Great call.

[52-80 19248]

tremendous day today.  not just GME, but PLTR and a bunch other.  and INTC took the kicking they deserved.  very good friday

[DonkeyCigars 143]

5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

tremendous day today.  not just GME, but PLTR and a bunch other.  and INTC took the kicking they deserved.  very good friday

I redirected 10% of my bankroll to INTC. I'm bullish on their growth (their earnings weren't bad, per se) and if they can split into two, I'll at least double.

[Parliament 14303]

I am weighing taking 10-20% off the table, taking some of my gains and playing the waiting game.


But I hate being in cash - so it all gets back to TINA, and to a lessor extent FOMO.....talk me out of it, or into it. What say ye?

You, Sir, need to own puts.

[52-80 19248]

8 hours ago, DonkeyCigars said:

I redirected 10% of my bankroll to INTC. I'm bullish on their growth (their earnings weren't bad, per se) and if they can split into two, I'll at least double.

They did have a good earnings. But AMD will have theirs in a few days and if they post a bigger beat it might slam dunk INTC (from people trading on pairs / comps)

[Wally Fairway 5586]

14 hours ago, Parliament said:

You, Sir, need to own puts.

Thanks - but it is too early, IMO - this market is likely going to continue to run until the Fed changes policy and more stimulus in on the horizon. I'll take a look after those first 100 days. I think this is like a company running up before earnings release, buy the hype/sell the news. 
IMO the market correction happens when the realization hits that widespread vaccine distribution will not bring the economy back to where it was 1 year ago.
I'd rather put risk money into #stonks than puts

[GRHorn 105]

Hey look at Nance dipping her toes in some $tsla calls. 

Looks like Tsla is a buy at this level. Congress members are notoriously successful individual investors. 

Edited January 24, 2021 by GRHorn

[bluto 4942]

Starting to get skittish wanting to protect my gains but not exactly wanting to go cash, let’s talk value stocks/equities. Putting a list together (I’m hamstrung by big 4 independence issues)....

Jnj
Pg
Duk
Ed
Bmy
Mmm (except for the potential of govt fines)

[52-80 19248]

22 minutes ago, bluto said:

Starting to get skittish wanting to protect my gains but not exactly wanting to go cash, let’s talk value stocks/equities. Putting a list together (I’m hamstrung by big 4 independence issues)....

Jnj
Pg
Duk
Ed
Bmy
Mmm (except for the potential of govt fines)

if you want value why not just buy BRKB and be done?

[Celery Man 20997]

On 1/20/2021 at 9:44 PM, Continental Op said:

I keep thinking that eventually Netflix will get chewed up by the fact every studio will have their own streaming service at some point and I keep getting proven wrong. 

my tech portfolio is a shit ton of AAPL, some Goog or whatever it is now and AMZN. I've had the feeling that I should pick up some Netflix lately. If you look at it as just "they were the first to do this thing that everyone's doing" it makes sense that it isn't sustainable. But I think that actually, they are a really competent outfit. Both with programming and the underlying technology stuff. I haven't bet on them yet and I'm not a stonk trader but I feel like they're a good bet.

[Continental Op 3934]

34 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

my tech portfolio is a shit ton of AAPL, some Goog or whatever it is now and AMZN. I've had the feeling that I should pick up some Netflix lately. If you look at it as just "they were the first to do this thing that everyone's doing" it makes sense that it isn't sustainable. But I think that actually, they are a really competent outfit. Both with programming and the underlying technology stuff. I haven't bet on them yet and I'm not a stonk trader but I feel like they're a good bet.

Yeah... I think I just haven't caught up with the fact that, even though they're not Disney/20th Century or Warner Brothers or whatever, Netflix is churning out stuff that people want to watch and content supply from other sources drying up isn't a really big deal for them. 

[DonkeyCigars 143]

7 hours ago, Continental Op said:

Yeah... I think I just haven't caught up with the fact that, even though they're not Disney/20th Century or Warner Brothers or whatever, Netflix is churning out stuff that people want to watch and content supply from other sources drying up isn't a really big deal for them. 

 

8 hours ago, Celery Man said:

my tech portfolio is a shit ton of AAPL, some Goog or whatever it is now and AMZN. I've had the feeling that I should pick up some Netflix lately. If you look at it as just "they were the first to do this thing that everyone's doing" it makes sense that it isn't sustainable. But I think that actually, they are a really competent outfit. Both with programming and the underlying technology stuff. I haven't bet on them yet and I'm not a stonk trader but I feel like they're a good bet.

The value in Netflix, from what I read last week, is that while they throw a ton of money at original content and only some of it sticks, what does stick is so  profitable (Bridgerton? Tiger Guy, Cobra, Ugly Chess Girl and Stranger Things to name a few) that their ultimately going to win by being the last man standing. 

That is why the big news from their earnings was they now had free cash flow (the big case for them being low growth or a bear stock was their working capital was always horrible) they are in the catbird seat compared to their rivals. 

And the pandemic obviously helped Netflix greatly as their marketing costs and customer acquisition cost plummeted to the floor, helping with profit and cash flow as new users swarmed to streaming in 2020.

Netflix’s rising margins are evidence that the service is increasingly dominated by Netflix’s own content, not licensed shows; that Netflix chooses not to pay for everything isn’t a sign of weakness, but rather strategic capital allocation towards content it controls. The company will be able to license anything it wants in a few years when most of its competitors throw in the towel.

Edited January 25, 2021 by DonkeyCigars

[Celery Man 20997]

Almost like they are smart, organizationally competent, good at strategy, and effective at implementing it. I should buy some Netflix.

[Hank_Hill 18894]

Hey!.....you’d fuck chess girl and you know it.

[52-80 19248]

3 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

Hey!.....you’d fuck chess girl and you know it.

 

alexandra botez

[Bone3421 716]

Gme up to 83$ in Europe market....shit going to explode at open

[Bone3421 716]

Gme up to 83$ in Europe market....shit going to explode at open

113$

[52-80 19248]

On 1/21/2021 at 4:27 PM, Eastwood said:

On 1/19/2021 at 9:49 PM, Hank_Hill said:

Made 150% gains on GME calls today now putting some of that in to GME puts for tomorrow. Stocks are weird. 

I wouldn't want to be anywhere near GME with anything other than house money, right now. It's going to rip one way or another and the losing side is going to lose big. My cost basis is $7.50 a share, so I'm fine if it retreats heavily. But if you want to play this stock now, only do it with fun money, nothing that you will need in the future.

 

You beautiful bastard.

Last week I got in the shares at $38, then dipped at $34 by the stop-loss limit order.

BUT along the way ripped some profits from selling puts on it , and also have exposure with some calls

By the way every single strike of last week's calls ALL expired ITM which is insane

[52-80 19248]

Market makers opened up strikes now above 60C, half or maybe all of which will OPEN straight ITM which is even more lunacy