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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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sidis

sidis 9832

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Queen Bitch said:

Can someone who understands the market far better than I explain how Apple announced one of their best quarters ever yesterday after-hours, and the stock is down today?

apple reports $111B in revenue and operating cash flow of $38.8 billion in one quarter in which the economy overall contracts by 3.5%.  with the CASH that they made in this one quarter, they could buy the book value of the balance sheet equity of GameStop 65 times over and the book value of all their assets 19 times over.  aapl drops 3% and gme is up a zillion %.  what a world.

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DonkeyCigars

DonkeyCigars 143

Posted
Posted (edited)

My understanding was "The Street" had already baked in those numbers/results into their price as their banner Q4 was generally not a surprise and/or expected. You could go double check, but I believe there was a run-up in share price the last few days/week before earnings that would more-or-less validate that, I guess.

But I don't trust Wall St. right now, so whatever.

Edited by DonkeyCigars
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15356

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, sidis said:

liquidity sure, but their margins stayed consistent at 38.2%.  up from 37.9 the previous quarter and in line with the last four years.

I was just throwing random commentary into the fray.  I didn't even look at the report to see what their quarterly margins were.  Moreso to be funny, since that would be a reasonable expectance for a stock to go down as opposed to the fuckery going on with other things right now. 

Edited by Trey3216
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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19053

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, fattyflattie said:

I’m looking for one that doesn’t crash, and more importantly, doesn’t change the rules in the middle of a bloodletting?

So far RH is off the list

TD is off the list from the shit they pulled yesterday 

Has Fidelity fucked around yet? 

 

36 minutes ago, Queen Bitch said:

Can someone who understands the market far better than I explain how Apple announced one of their best quarters ever yesterday after-hours, and the stock is down today?

 

16 minutes ago, DonkeyCigars said:

My understanding was "The Street" had already baked in those numbers/results into their price as their banner Q4 was generally not a surprise and/or expected. You could go double check, but I believe there was a run-up in share price the last few days/week before earnings that would more-or-less validate that, I guess.

But I don't trust Wall St. right now, so whatever.

I think this is correct. I believe Apple ran about 12-13% prior to earnings, likely because people were expecting very good earnings. 
 

Earnings have been extremely weird lately. Seems like every stock tanks after earnings regardless of result. AMD ran up a lot too before it’s very good earnings report and then proceeded to tank like 7-8% after. 

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11683

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

I am not sure.

I saw it in a thread on WSB's that they changed there position on allowing buying.

 

I went to an IRA account I have with them and bought 10 shares for the LULZ.   I will diamond hands those shares just for the laughs.  May well be the best $2500 I ever spend.

.....193 at the close.

Melvin Capital better send me a Christmas card.

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52-80

52-80 19249

Posted
Posted
On 1/27/2021 at 8:20 PM, sidis said:

you, of course, could be correct...but it is an interesting collection of companies that were seeing all this volume over the last ten days.  why would shorters of iron mountain or dillards think a gamestop mob was coming for them?

and given their positions in those companies and melvin's shorting strategy, i disagree that blackrock had NO incentive to take them down.  that said, it does seem like the benefits are small potatoes for the risk of bringing all the shit that could rain down on them for this.  but the activity in that specific basket of companies is just very odd.  seems like some force is leading the wsb mob by the nose and directing them to companies that have a very consistent pattern.

https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1354883155279237123/photo/1

what we talked about yesterday:  big boy funds with large short positions needed to cover the rest of their shorts.  they freed up cash from selling their profitable long positions, hence why solid companies with out-beat earnings dipped.  apple, amd, salesforce, yadda yadda yadda.  they were sold off to cover the losing (short) position.

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52-80

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Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, B00M said:

Real talk...you fuckers moving 401(k)s and shit to cash tomorrow AM? Or is your expectation that GME rockets a little then peters and everything is mostly fine?

real talk - buy volatility instruments (VXX, UVXY) as shares or call options.  if the market goes even more topsy turvy these things rise up and act as an insurance. 

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52-80

52-80 19249

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Party_Taco said:


You anticipating complete disaster or something?

we also saw the ripples earlier this when the tech royalty and bluechips tanked.  funds were profit-taking from them to cover their losses.  now it looks like its not just a few isolated hedge funds who are on the wrong side of this GME story, but quite a bunch more, and they're involved in shorting of the other stocks that will inevitably be shook up

 

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hayden_horn

hayden_horn 11365

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

All the Melvin, et al shorts are still climbing while the rest of the market is selling off. I think we're seeing a large liquidation occurring.

yeah, and we can (hopefully) take some of the gme gains and drop them into strong worthwhile long term gainers at a undervalued price. its a topsy turvy world, and i'm glad to be a (very very small) part of it

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52-80

52-80 19249

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

can you tell me a little more about vxx? i'm trying to google, but plain english is not there for me.

options market - where people trade contracts that grants contract-holder the right to buy or sell stock at certain prices sometime in the future - is a proxy for how much the market expected to swing.

 

if apple stock is $120 today, and there are thousands of contracts that provide exercise rights in 1 month time to sell apple at 95 or buy apple at 145, then this trading activity tells you people expect apple to move within that range , 120 +/- 25 in 30 days.  this is the implied volatility.

 

VIX index is the implied volatility of the S&P500 index.  VXX is an instrument that mimics it.  UVXY is an instrument that mimics at 3x leverage.

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2225

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

options market - where people trade contracts that grants contract-holder the right to buy or sell stock at certain prices sometime in the future - is a proxy for how much the market expected to swing.

 

if apple stock is $120 today, and there are thousands of contracts that provide exercise rights in 1 month time to sell apple at 95 or buy apple at 145, then this trading activity tells you people expect apple to move within that range , 120 +/- 25 in 30 days.  this is the implied volatility.

 

VIX index is the implied volatility of the S&P500 index.  VXX is an instrument that mimics it.  UVXY is an instrument that mimics at 3x leverage.

You had me until the last paragraph. 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted

The pros who get paid to lose my money just asked if I want to move a significant portion of my portfolio to cash.  These are people who didn't recommend taking a penny out as covid got rolling. 

 

You know I said fuck no and yelled "diamond hands".  They think i have issues.  Of course if shit goes really bad I'll fire them no matter who's at fault.  

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52-80

52-80 19249

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

You had me until the last paragraph. 

If your spiders starts tingling and you think the US stock market is gonna go wonky, instead of selling all your shit and sit on cash, consider buying a little bit of VXX.  If market shits, VXX goes up and helps offset some of your loss... and you wont have needed to liquidate your shares.

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ZB'Tejas

ZB'Tejas 593

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

The pros who get paid to lose my money just asked if I want to move a significant portion of my portfolio to cash.  These are people who didn't recommend taking a penny out as covid got rolling. 

 

You know I said fuck no and yelled "diamond hands".  They think i have issues.  Of course if shit goes really bad I'll fire them no matter who's at fault.  

I've still got around 35-40% in cash looking for place to put it over the next few months. My Merrill guy was already looking for a 5-10% pullback so I'm going to see if that happens. 

Depending on if the pullback happens I looking at buying more $SUMO, $PLTR, $ASAN, $DIS and $AMWL. Anything you or anyone else likes for the 2-3 year horizon?

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19224

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

If your spiders starts tingling and you think the US stock market is gonna go wonky, instead of selling all your shit and sit on cash, consider buying a little bit of VXX.  If market shits, VXX goes up and helps offset some of your loss... and you wont have needed to liquidate your shares.

VXX is the absolute worst trading instrument ever devised since tulips.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I've still got around 35-40% in cash looking for place to put it over the next few months. My Merrill guy was already looking for a 5-10% pullback so I'm going to see if that happens. 

Depending on if the pullback happens I looking at buying more $SUMO, $PLTR, $ASAN, $DIS and $AMWL. Anything you or anyone else likes for the 2-3 year horizon?

I really think once the retail investor gets jaded and goes back to putting $300 on 8 team parlays you'll see a more 'normal' market and the best move is to go with index funds for the long term.  But I don't know shit and neither does anyone telling me shit.  Fuck

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19224

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I've still got around 35-40% in cash looking for place to put it over the next few months. My Merrill guy was already looking for a 5-10% pullback so I'm going to see if that happens. 

Depending on if the pullback happens I looking at buying more $SUMO, $PLTR, $ASAN, $DIS and $AMWL. Anything you or anyone else likes for the 2-3 year horizon?

$SPY, $IWM, $QQQ, $DIA

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52-80

52-80 19249

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

VXX is the absolute worst trading instrument ever devised since tulips.

its def not a long term instrument and has certain edge behaviors, so should just be used as quick insurance. ive closed 11 trades since last year using vxx or uvxy all profitable.  whats the symbol for tulip?

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52-80

52-80 19249

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I've still got around 35-40% in cash looking for place to put it over the next few months. My Merrill guy was already looking for a 5-10% pullback so I'm going to see if that happens. 

Depending on if the pullback happens I looking at buying more $SUMO, $PLTR, $ASAN, $DIS and $AMWL. Anything you or anyone else likes for the 2-3 year horizon?

CRM

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19224

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

CRM

 

38 minutes ago, DonkeyCigars said:

I'm long on CRM, AAPL and GE. I'm medium on INTC. Everything else is just FAAFO

I put about 25% of my existing cash stockpile into $SPY, $AAPL, $MSFT and $CRM.  I have no visions of getting rich quick with these purchases but I believe a year from now I'll be better off than just letting the cash sit idle.

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Hmmm

Hmmm 155

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 1/29/2021 at 1:00 PM, 52-80 said:

If your spiders starts tingling and you think the US stock market is gonna go wonky, instead of selling all your shit and sit on cash, consider buying a little bit of VXX.  If market shits, VXX goes up and helps offset some of your loss... and you wont have needed to liquidate your shares.

This guy speaks my languages. Thanks

oh and my friend wants to know, VXX thrives on volatility, yes? If markets going to and fro then that’s where you go. 

Edited by Hmmm
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