Markets still falling like whoa

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

Hey look. I can see my ass again.

[B00M 6,423]

2 hours ago, DonkeyCigars said:

Dang I didn’t see that. Saw it touch $78 and rubbed my sons face in the fact I’ve profited $2k in one day and he and his dumb friends haven’t made hardly any money on their “studio” and “games” they created and their YouTube channel promoting it, in months.

Good, good. Crush their dreams and creativity. Make them devote their energy to stonks

[DonkeyCigars 143]

46 minutes ago, B00M said:

Good, good. Crush their dreams and creativity. Make them devote their energy to stonks

My son learned what a hostile takeover was today.

We are going to shop for suspenders, hair gel, and a pin stripe suit when he gets out of school and after his Finance for Children class.

[Slacks 6,823]

On 3/5/2021 at 4:04 PM, XYZ said:

What kind of assets?

The kind that increase in value.

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

3 minutes ago, Snacks said:

The kind that increase in value.

Stocks only go up. 

[Slacks 6,823]

8 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Stocks only go up. 

To the moon it is, then.

[GRHorn 105]

I’ve posted about this before but US weed stocks will be big and they’re at a nice spot now with catalysts on horizon. 

 

[Burt Macklin 19,038]

19 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I’ve posted about this before but US weed stocks will be big and they’re at a nice spot now with catalysts on horizon. 

 

Do you have any favorites in particular besides the weed ETFs?

[GRHorn 105]

3 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Do you have any favorites in particular besides the weed ETFs?

I own Curlf Crlbf Gtbif. Tcnnf is another big one.  Access to those may be limited because they’re otc. MSOS is the full access etf play, has options etc. 

[Burt Macklin 19,038]

6 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I own Curlf Crlbf Gtbif. Tcnnf is another big one.  Access to those may be limited because they’re otc. MSOS is the full access etf play, has options etc. 

Nice. I have some MSOS. I’ll look into the others you listed AZFL is another OTC weed stock. They have facilities in Florida and massive connections in Mexico, which just legalized weed nationwide. They’re in the process of updating filings and becoming pink current so still a bit of a gamble.  The stock has run the last few days so might have to be patient on an entry point, but it has a lot of potential. 

Edited March 16, 2021 by Burt Macklin

[GRHorn 105]

2 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

yeah. I have some MSOS. I’ll look into the others you listed AZFL is another OTC weed stock. They have facilities in Florida and massive connections in Mexico, which just legalized weed nationwide. They’re in the process of updating filings and becoming pink current so still a bit of a gamble.  The stock has run the last few days so might have to be patient on an entry point, but it has a lot of potential. 

Burt, you may already follow this guy, but he’s pretty much the top “serious” weed stock guy on Twitter. 

plenty of news, some charts, legislative gossip etc. 

[Hmmm 155]

3 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

Nice. I have some MSOS. I’ll look into the others you listed AZFL is another OTC weed stock. They have facilities in Florida and massive connections in Mexico, which just legalized weed nationwide. They’re in the process of updating filings and becoming pink current so still a bit of a gamble.  The stock has run the last few days so might have to be patient on an entry point, but it has a lot of potential. 

Curlf and CRLBF should be good long term. 
 
I’m really interest in warrants. CRLWF is a warrant for CRLBF.  Problem is, I can’t seem to find the ducking strike price for CRLWF. It’s Canadian, CL.WT, equivalent has a has a really good looking strike. https://thecse.com/en/listings/life-sciences/cresco-labs-inc-warrants-subordinate-voting-share

This guy has me convinced:

 

Edited March 16, 2021 by Hmmm

[bluto 4,933]

Anything wrong with yolo etf for weed play?

[52-80 19,195]

Some murmurs stocks will go down after this week

[Hank_Hill 18,891]

Makes sense after the stimmy wave wears off yea?

[Trey3216 15,349]

1 hour ago, Hank_Hill said:

Makes sense after the stimmy wave wears off yea?

Stingy wave is so baked in at this point it almost doesn’t matter 

[Parliament 14,265]

I did my taxes last weekend and the capital losses on my S&P 500 puts are...nice(?) as a tax deduction. So yay me?

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Some murmurs stocks will go down after this week

You were misinformed. Stocks only go up.

[Bone3421 716]

Anything wrong with yolo etf for weed play?

I dont think there is going to be a wrong play...they should all enjoy a nice "green" rush when USA legalizes it

I got some YOLO and MJ as my 2 ETFs

[BLKNSTY 289]

Anything wrong with yolo etf for weed play?

MSOS, MSOS, MSOS. The future of US weed is Cresco, Trulieve, Green Thumb, and Curaleaf. They will be the Walmart, Target, Costco, and Kroger of weed in the US. And those are MSOS’s top 4 holdings.
I could see diversifying but I honestly wouldn’t touch those Canadian Producers.

[Bone3421 716]

BlackBerry was granted patent today for its autonomous vehicle system...this was talked about on reddit back in December/January before gamestop took over

Better jump on before take off...

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,122]

It night be a rough one today. Yields are up, Futures down, and a Fed decision due.

[52-80 19,195]

one narrative is that large futures options have put dealers/market makers in a big gamma position, which necessitates their hedging activity to move opposite of market.  if current prices go down, they buy futures.  if current prices go up, they sell futures.  i.e. the dealer/mm are stabilizing market prices in the short term.  hence SPX has been quite stuck around 3950 these last few days.

friday, a lot of these options position will expire, and it erodes this dealer/mm hedging pressure.  then the market is more free to shoot up or down, catalyzed by the fed announcements, change in yields, people reacting to biden tax plans, etc etc etc. 

 

tldr ^^ hold on to yer butts

[Wally Fairway 5,569]

TIme to buy more SPY calls on todays opening drop

[The Royal We 3,072]

47 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

TIme to buy more SPY calls on todays opening drop

Which calls did you buy?

[Blotto 23,560]

14 hours ago, Bone3421 said:

BlackBerry was granted patent today for its autonomous vehicle system...this was talked about on reddit back in December/January before gamestop took over

Better jump on before take off...

I skimmed through the patent doc and my takeaway was "who cares". Its basically a methodology for autonomous vehicles to refuel. I highly doubt there is a single technical pathway to this end goal. Best case they get embroiled in years and years of patent lawsuits sometime in the future, meanwhile their revenue continues to languish

https://pdfpiw.uspto.gov/.piw?PageNum=0&docid=10948920

Counterpoint. If the mobs on Reddit pick up the cause again can it gain some short term momentum. Yes it can. 

[Bone3421 716]

I skimmed through the patent doc and my takeaway was "who cares". Its basically a methodology for autonomous vehicles to refuel. I highly doubt there is a single technical pathway to this end goal. Best case they get embroiled in years and years of patent lawsuits sometime in the future, meanwhile their revenue continues to languish
https://pdfpiw.uspto.gov/.piw?PageNum=0&docid=10948920
Counterpoint. If the mobs on Reddit pick up the cause again can it gain some short term momentum. Yes it can. 

I look it as just another round of good news.

If you look into to BlackBerry you will see that they are going to be a player in the autonomous vehicles coming down the road. Already in good terms with many many major automakers, BlackBerry ivy, deal with Amazon and baidu....do as ya wish but I'm thinking longterm and grabbing some while its 10$ not 30$ or whatever down the line

[washparkhorn 9,939]

Fed unchanged. Dollar down. Markets up. 

[Wally Fairway 5,569]

4 hours ago, The Royal We said:

Which calls did you buy?

I bought the following:
20 03/22/21 400 cost $0.61 - currently $1.14, hoping these see $2.50 tomorrow and I'll see 10-15 at that point
10 4/16/21 400 cost $3.97 - currently $5.22, hoping these get to $7 or more by next week

I also hold some LEAPs 
5 1/21/22 410 & 5 6/14/22 420's - bought both of those about 10 days ago and they are up about 30%

I had played the put game in 2020, making a decent bit of money as I had some puts in place starting in late 2019 that were effective hedges into the crash, but I was blind to the rebound and lost even more in the recovery. And I only started to get back into the options game after quiting in in late Sept and finally realizing that I should try to fight the market momentum and tragectory, and have done alright on that since.
Disclosure - these are all relatively small positions as I am long-term into ETF's and SPY is my largest holding

[52-80 19,195]

1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

Dollar down. Markets up. 

thats the way i like to f*ck

[Wally Fairway 5,569]

On 3/17/2021 at 3:15 PM, Wally Fairway said:

I bought the following:
20 03/22/21 400 cost $0.61 - currently $1.14, hoping these see $2.50 tomorrow and I'll see 10-15 at that point
10 4/16/21 400 cost $3.97 - currently $5.22, hoping these get to $7 or more by next week

I also hold some LEAPs 
5 1/21/22 410 & 5 6/14/22 420's - bought both of those about 10 days ago and they are up about 30%

I had played the put game in 2020, making a decent bit of money as I had some puts in place starting in late 2019 that were effective hedges into the crash, but I was blind to the rebound and lost even more in the recovery. And I only started to get back into the options game after quiting in in late Sept and finally realizing that I should try to fight the market momentum and tragectory, and have done alright on that since.
Disclosure - these are all relatively small positions as I am long-term into ETF's and SPY is my largest holding

Looks like I nailed it

[Bone3421 716]

I skimmed through the patent doc and my takeaway was "who cares". Its basically a methodology for autonomous vehicles to refuel. I highly doubt there is a single technical pathway to this end goal. Best case they get embroiled in years and years of patent lawsuits sometime in the future, meanwhile their revenue continues to languish
https://pdfpiw.uspto.gov/.piw?PageNum=0&docid=10948920
Counterpoint. If the mobs on Reddit pick up the cause again can it gain some short term momentum. Yes it can. 

...

[Bone3421 716]

Hold onto your butts....banks/hedgies going to be selling huge chunks like on Friday with this bill hwang fall out.....

Goldman on Friday and hearing about credit suisse now

[Wally Fairway 5,569]

Is Archegos this generations LTCM?

Link for the youngsters (fwiw - my boss was on a road show selling bonds when the LTCM market collapse occured, the offering was cancelled)

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/longtermcapital.asp

https://clsbluesky.law.columbia.edu/2018/09/10/a-retrospective-on-the-demise-of-long-term-capital-management/

 

 

[52-80 19,195]

I went on bullish positions on VIAC and DISCA on the dip on Friday.  It was scary for a bit...turned back around and went profitable at end of day.  Gonna dip a bit into TME today as well

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,119]

20 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Is Archegos this generations LTCM?

Link for the youngsters (fwiw - my boss was on a road show selling bonds when the LTCM market collapse occured, the offering was cancelled)

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/longtermcapital.asp

https://clsbluesky.law.columbia.edu/2018/09/10/a-retrospective-on-the-demise-of-long-term-capital-management/

 

 

Impossible, the SEC taught him a lesson with that hefty fine and definitely closely monitored him afterwards. Also, no way financial institutions would trust this guy, right? This must all be a big misunderstanding. 

[nineliveslost 2,788]

Sooooooo lets say someone invested in stocks that fell way down from their 3to5 year average around when covid hit. Now that investment is 4x+. What would the Surly money lords do? hold? sell and let capital gains fuck them? Don't "need" the money currently , but damn don;t know what to do 

 

 

 

Edited March 30, 2021 by nineliveslost

[Hmmm 155]

1 hour ago, nineliveslost said:

Sooooooo lets say someone invested in stocks that fell way down from their 3to5 year average around when covid hit. Now that investment is 4x+. What would the Surly money lords do? hold? sell and let capital gains fuck them? Don't "need" the money currently , but damn don;t know what to do 

 

 

 

don't know shit so maybe listen to the opposite, but there's the phrase "sell in may and go away".  based on historical yearly averages or some such? most of your portfolio looks to be long term investments and if you don't need the money, then maybe hold with it.  i think it's more difficult to time the dips with long term plays but i'm a noob.

[Incredulity 11,678]

2 hours ago, nineliveslost said:

Sooooooo lets say someone invested in stocks that fell way down from their 3to5 year average around when covid hit. Now that investment is 4x+. What would the Surly money lords do? hold? sell and let capital gains fuck them? Don't "need" the money currently , but damn don;t know what to do 

 

 

 

If you hold a year your cap gains rate goes from regular income to long term (20%).  Depending on your income tax bracket that can be significant.

[Blotto 23,560]

Bloomberg recap  on Archegos Capital. 

Quote

From his perch high above Midtown Manhattan, just across from Carnegie Hall, Bill Hwang was quietly building one of the world’s greatest fortunes.Even on Wall Street, few ever noticed him -- until suddenly, everyone did.

Hwang and his private investment firm, Archegos Capital Management, are now at the center of one of the biggest margin calls of all time -- a multibillion-dollar fiasco involving secretive market bets that were dangerously leveraged and unwound in a blink.

Hwang’s most recent ascent can be pieced together from stocks dumped by banks in recent days -- ViacomCBS Inc., Discovery Inc. GSX Techedu Inc., Baidu Inc. -- all of which had soared this year, sometimes confounding traders who couldn’t fathom why.

One part of Hwang’s portfolio, which has been traded in blocks since Friday by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co., was worth almost $40 billion last week. Bankers reckon that Archegos’s net capital -- essentially Hwang’s wealth -- had reached north of $10 billion. And as disposals keep emerging, estimates of his firm’s total positions keep climbing: tens of billions, $50 billion, even more than $100 billion.

It evaporated in mere days.

“I’ve never seen anything like this -- how quiet it was, how concentrated, and how fast it disappeared,” said Mike Novogratz, a career macro investor and former partner at Goldman Sachs who’s been trading since 1994. “This has to be one of the single greatest losses of personal wealth in history.”

Late Monday in New York, Archegos broke days of silence on the episode.

“This is a challenging time for the family office of Archegos Capital Management, our partners and employees,” Karen Kessler, a spokesperson for the firm, said in an emailed statement. “All plans are being discussed as Mr. Hwang and the team determine the best path forward.”

The cascade of trading losses has reverberated from New York to Zurich to Tokyo and beyond, and leaves myriad unanswered questions, including the big one: How could someone take such big risks, facilitated by so many banks, under the noses of regulators the world over?

One part of the answer is that Hwang set up as a family office with limited oversight and then employed financial derivatives to amass big stakes in companies without ever having to disclose them. Another part is that global banks embraced him as a lucrative customer, despite a record of insider trading and attempted market manipulation that drove him out of the hedge fund business a decade ago.

A disciple of hedge-fund legend Julian Robertson, Sung Kook “Bill” Hwang shuttered Tiger Asia Management and Tiger Asia Partners after settling an SEC civil lawsuit in 2012 accusing them of insider trading and manipulating Chinese banks stocks. Hwang and the firms paid $44 million, and he agreed to be barred from the investment advisory industry.

He soon opened Archegos -- Greek for “one who leads the way” -- and structured it as a family office.

Family offices that exclusively manage one fortune are generally exempt from registering as investment advisers with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. So they don’t have to disclose their owners, executives or how much they manage -- rules designed to protect outsiders who invest in a fund. That approach makes sense for small family offices, but if they swell to the size of a hedge fund whale they can still pose risks, this time to outsiders in the broader market.

“This does raise questions about the regulation of family offices once again,” said Tyler Gellasch, a former SEC aide who now runs the Healthy Markets trade group. “The question is if it’s just friends and family why do we care? The answer is that they can have significant market impacts, and the SEC’s regulatory regime even after Dodd-Frank doesn’t clearly reflect that.”

Archegos established trading partnerships with firms including Nomura Holdings Inc., Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank AG and Credit Suisse Group AG. For a time after the SEC case, Goldman refused to do business with him on compliance grounds, but relented as rivals profited by meeting his needs.

The full picture of his holdings is still emerging, and it’s not clear what positions derailed, or what hedges he had set up.

One reason is that Hwang never filed a 13F report of his holdings, which every investment manager holding more than $100 million in U.S. equities must fill out at the end of each quarter. That’s because he appears to have structured his trades using total return swaps, essentially putting the positions on the banks’ balance sheets. Swaps also enable investors to add a lot of leverage to a portfolio.

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, for instance, are listed as the largest holders of GSX Techedu, a Chinese online tutoring company that’s been repeatedly targeted by short sellers. Banks may own shares for a variety of reasons that include hedging swap exposures from trades with their customers.

Goldman increased its position 54% in January, according to regulatory filings. Overall, banks reported holding at least 68% of GSX’s outstanding shares, according to a Bloomberg analysis of filings. Banks held at least 40% of IQIYI Inc, a Chinese video entertainment company, and 29% of ViacomCBS -- all of which Archegos had bet on big.

“I’m sure there are a number of really unhappy investors who have bought those names over the last couple of weeks,” and now regret it, Doug Cifu, chief executive officer of electronic-trading firm Virtu Financial Inc., said Monday in an interview on Bloomberg TV. He predicted regulators will examine whether “there should be more transparency and disclosure by a family office.”

Without the need to market his fund to external investors, Hwang’s strategies and performance remained secret from the outside world. Even as his fortune swelled, the 50-something kept a low profile. Despite once working for Robertson’s Tiger Management, he wasn’t well-known on Wall Street or in New York social circles.

Hwang is a trustee of the Fuller Theology Seminary, and co-founder of the Grace and Mercy Foundation, whose mission is to serve the poor and oppressed. The foundation had assets approaching $500 million at the end of 2018, according to its latest filing.

“It’s not all about the money, you know,” he said in a rare interview with a Fuller Institute executive in 2018, in which he spoke about his calling as an investor and his Christian faith. “It’s about the long term, and God certainly has a long-term view.”

His extraordinary run of fortune turned early last week as ViacomCBS Inc. announced a secondary offering of its shares. Its stock price plunged 9% the next day.

The value of other securities believed to be in Archegos’ portfolio based on the positions that were block traded followed.

By Thursday’s close, the value of the portfolio fell 27% -- more than enough to wipe out the equity of an investor who market participants estimate was six to eight times levered.

“You have to wonder who else is out there with one of these invisible fortunes,” said Novogratz. “The psychology of all that leverage with no risk management, it’s almost nihilism.”

I'm sure this is the only case we need to be worried about.

[52-80 19,195]

5 hours ago, Hmmm said:

don't know shit so maybe listen to the opposite, but there's the phrase "sell in may and go away".  based on historical yearly averages or some such? most of your portfolio looks to be long term investments and if you don't need the money, then maybe hold with it.  i think it's more difficult to time the dips with long term plays but i'm a noob.

ive heard this as well, but the data on the broad indices do not support it.  the theory is that people start to sell off to pay taxes.  recently, theres bene way better/worse reasons to sell of equities !

[nineliveslost 2,788]

8 hours ago, Incredulity said:

If you hold a year your cap gains rate goes from regular income to long term (20%).  Depending on your income tax bracket that can be significant.

 

9 hours ago, Hmmm said:

don't know shit so maybe listen to the opposite, but there's the phrase "sell in may and go away".  based on historical yearly averages or some such? most of your portfolio looks to be long term investments and if you don't need the money, then maybe hold with it.  i think it's more difficult to time the dips with long term plays but i'm a noob.

I am not Surly 1% but doing well. 24% thanks to marriage. To me liquidating and getting a 35k+ tax hit is such a ball kicker 

My gut says to hold it and chill

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,119]

15 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

 

I am not Surly 1% but doing well. 24% thanks to marriage. To me liquidating and getting a 35k+ tax hit is such a ball kicker 

My gut says to hold it and chill

How will that 100k+ tax bill be further down the road? My point is, the tax won’t go away, quite the opposite, unless you lose all your gains. Once you reach long term capital gains, you  have to decide when it’s best to get out, knowing Uncle Sam is waiting for his cut.

I’m no tax pro but I can tell you the bigger that tax bill gets, the more difficult it will be for you to sell if that’s your main hesitation. Just set the money aside once you liquidate, it’s part of the game we play.

[nineliveslost 2,788]

42 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

How will that 100k+ tax bill be further down the road? My point is, the tax won’t go away, quite the opposite, unless you lose all your gains. Once you reach long term capital gains, you  have to decide when it’s best to get out, knowing Uncle Sam is waiting for his cut.

I’m no tax pro but I can tell you the bigger that tax bill gets, the more difficult it will be for you to sell if that’s your main hesitation. Just set the money aside once you liquidate, it’s part of the game we play.

damnit that makes sense. But then I have to figure out WTF to do with 130K to make more money. Reinvest ?Bitcoin? Pay off house and cars? Strippers and Coke? 

Right side up on houses and cars , but the balance on 3 cars and house is 102k. APR on House is 2.6%, Cars is 2.95%. Maybe liquidating and getting completely out of debt and saving me 4k a month

I mean I got completely lucky and fortunate to decided to throw a big chunk of our life's savings into stocks when they went into the shitter, now I have a nice return and don't know what the fuck to do with it that makes me more money.

 

Might be financial advisor time....

Edited March 30, 2021 by nineliveslost
more info

[The Royal We 3,072]

I think you could do a hell of a lot worse than selling when the market is at all time highs and getting completely out of debt.  Sure those stocks might continue to go up after you sell, but I don't see how you would ever regret getting debt free.  No need to pay a financial advisor a cut to tell you that...

Just my $.02

@nineliveslost

[52-80 19,195]

just buy gamestop with the proceeds so you can get a lambo by christmas

[Incredulity 11,678]

1 hour ago, nineliveslost said:

damnit that makes sense. But then I have to figure out WTF to do with 130K to make more money. Reinvest ?Bitcoin? Pay off house and cars? Strippers and Coke? 

Right side up on houses and cars , but the balance on 3 cars and house is 102k. APR on House is 2.6%, Cars is 2.95%. Maybe liquidating and getting completely out of debt and saving me 4k a month

I mean I got completely lucky and fortunate to decided to throw a big chunk of our life's savings into stocks when they went into the shitter, now I have a nice return and don't know what the fuck to do with it that makes me more money.

 

Might be financial advisor time....

Surly answer is strippers and coke, of course.

 

Real answer is take the windfall and pay off your debt.  That's the exact same a clipping a 2.6-2.95% dividend(actually better because your not paying taxes on the dividend)

[Cheeseweasel 26,438]

14 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Surly answer is strippers and coke, of course.  Real answer is take the windfall and pay off your debt. 

Most of my debt is in strippers and coke. Win/win

[KYHorn 17,098]

27 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Real answer is take the windfall and pay off your debt.  That's the exact same a clipping a 2.6-2.95% dividend(actually better because your not paying taxes on the dividend)

This is definitely what I'd do. You already feel lucky getting that amount, and now you have a chance to give yourself a ton of security, lock in 2.8% or so, plus you'll have 4k extra per month to spend or invest however you wish. 

[bluto 4,933]

Take that 4K/mo and reinvest in a balance portfolio.... of GameStop leaps. But seriously if any of my longshot plays hit that’s my plan, sell off and reinvest it in balance