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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5,305

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Oh shit. That jobs report is horrible. LOOK OUT BELOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW

 

 

Meh. August hit a huge delta wave speedbump. June and July numbers were revised higher. Several sectors actually saw decent hiring in August, but were offset by losses in the most COVID-sensitive (retail, dining, hospitality). 

September will probably be on the weak side too, but assuming that hospitalizations and deaths slow down, things should pick back up in the Fall, especially with UEI and eviction moratorium ending and student loan repayments resuming. 

Edited by Storm the Field
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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26,438

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13 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Meh. August hit a huge delta wave speedbump. June and July numbers were revised higher. Several sectors actually saw decent hiring in August, but were offset by losses in the most COVID-sensitive (retail, dining, hospitality). 

September will probably be on the weak side too, but assuming that hospitalizations and deaths slow down, things should pick back up in the Fall, especially with UEI and eviction moratorium ending and student loan repayments resuming. 

brrrrrrrrrrrrrt fixes everything

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Satoshi

Satoshi 129

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This is really crazy. The head of the Dallas Fed was allowed to day trade large amounts while he’s out there jawboning and knows what’s coming. Another example of the incredible corruption throughout the system. 
 

He fucking traded in and out of S&P futures, $1M+ positions. 
 

 

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maninblack

maninblack 7,975

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image.png.6abe400f518afd8efcd25893dad1ba4d.png

Spoiler

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 9, 2021 ~

The highly respected and closely watched Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for the third quarter has been slashed by 41 percent since August 2 – from 6.3 percent GDP growth to a tepid 3.7 percent projected GDP growth on September 2. The next update to its forecast will occur tomorrow after the Producer Price Index (PPI) is released at 10 a.m. (The GDPNow update typically occurs within a few hours of a new data release.)

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is the seasonally adjusted annual rate. It comes with the following caveat:

“GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow – the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.”

Despite this dramatic deceleration in growth prospects for the U.S. economy in the current quarter, the following headline ran at Bloomberg News yesterday: “Fed Says Growth Downshifted Slightly July-Aug, Cites Delta.”

Downshifted slightly? Seriously? Take a close look at the above chart.

The Bloomberg News report was based on the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book – which looks at economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. One sentence stands out in the newly released Beige Book:

“Economic growth downshifted slightly to a moderate pace in early July through August.”

That entire sentence is problematic. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for the third quarter took a dramatic turn for the worse from mid-August to the end of August, dropping from 6.2 percent on August 17 to 5.1 percent on August 27. That’s a deceleration of 18 percent in 10 days.

The Federal Reserve, where Jerome Powell would like to keep his job as Chair, is now between a rock and a hard place. If it presents the hard facts on the ground it risks further dampening the mood of the consumer – who represents two-thirds of GDP growth in the U.S.

That mood is already pretty gloomy. The survey of Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board on August 31 dropped from a reading of 125.1 in July to 113.8 in August.

And the Conference Board’s report was downright cheery compared to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for August. It found the following:

“There was no lessening in late August in the extent of the collapse in consumer sentiment recorded in the first half of the month. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 13.4% from July, recording the least favorable economic prospects in more than a decade. The Sentiment Index has only recorded larger losses in six other monthly surveys since 1978. The losses were especially large in the Expectations Index, and widespread across all demographic groups, regions, and the outlook for the economy. Personal financial prospects continued to worsen due to smaller income gains amid higher inflationary trends…Consumers’ extreme reactions were due to the surging Delta variant, higher inflation, slower wage growth, and smaller declines in unemployment. The extraordinary falloff in sentiment also reflects an emotional response, from dashed hopes that the pandemic would soon end and lives could return to normal.”

 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9,939

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2 hours ago, maninblack said:

Consumers’ extreme reactions were due to the surging Delta variant, higher inflation, slower wage growth, and smaller declines in unemployment. The extraordinary falloff in sentiment also reflects an emotional response, from dashed hopes that the pandemic would soon end and lives could return to normal.”

Deflationary headwinds created by inflation scaremongering. Our tools against inflation are certainly effective in curbing that risk. But we already knew that. 

The narrative on Bloomberg yesterday was the market is getting itchy for a correction.  Short squeeze is one way to deflate a bubble, I suppose. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15,380

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, maninblack said:

image.png.6abe400f518afd8efcd25893dad1ba4d.png

  Hide contents

By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 9, 2021 ~

The highly respected and closely watched Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for the third quarter has been slashed by 41 percent since August 2 – from 6.3 percent GDP growth to a tepid 3.7 percent projected GDP growth on September 2. The next update to its forecast will occur tomorrow after the Producer Price Index (PPI) is released at 10 a.m. (The GDPNow update typically occurs within a few hours of a new data release.)

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is the seasonally adjusted annual rate. It comes with the following caveat:

“GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow – the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.”

Despite this dramatic deceleration in growth prospects for the U.S. economy in the current quarter, the following headline ran at Bloomberg News yesterday: “Fed Says Growth Downshifted Slightly July-Aug, Cites Delta.”

Downshifted slightly? Seriously? Take a close look at the above chart.

The Bloomberg News report was based on the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book – which looks at economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. One sentence stands out in the newly released Beige Book:

“Economic growth downshifted slightly to a moderate pace in early July through August.”

That entire sentence is problematic. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for the third quarter took a dramatic turn for the worse from mid-August to the end of August, dropping from 6.2 percent on August 17 to 5.1 percent on August 27. That’s a deceleration of 18 percent in 10 days.

The Federal Reserve, where Jerome Powell would like to keep his job as Chair, is now between a rock and a hard place. If it presents the hard facts on the ground it risks further dampening the mood of the consumer – who represents two-thirds of GDP growth in the U.S.

That mood is already pretty gloomy. The survey of Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board on August 31 dropped from a reading of 125.1 in July to 113.8 in August.

And the Conference Board’s report was downright cheery compared to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for August. It found the following:

“There was no lessening in late August in the extent of the collapse in consumer sentiment recorded in the first half of the month. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 13.4% from July, recording the least favorable economic prospects in more than a decade. The Sentiment Index has only recorded larger losses in six other monthly surveys since 1978. The losses were especially large in the Expectations Index, and widespread across all demographic groups, regions, and the outlook for the economy. Personal financial prospects continued to worsen due to smaller income gains amid higher inflationary trends…Consumers’ extreme reactions were due to the surging Delta variant, higher inflation, slower wage growth, and smaller declines in unemployment. The extraordinary falloff in sentiment also reflects an emotional response, from dashed hopes that the pandemic would soon end and lives could return to normal.”

 

Can you post that link?   

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26,438

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1 hour ago, Satoshi said:

A lot of the permabears are jerking each other off over this situation. Large Chinese real estate developer. $300B in liabilities. Looks close to some sort of default. I think Beijing softens the landing in big way. Worth following. 

How do you say BRRRRRRRRRT in Mandarin? 

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Bone3421

Bone3421 716

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Posted
can't be any worse than using reddit/wallstreetbets
The old WSB before they got flooded after the gme sneeze in January was legit....also scope r/vitards for steel/construction and of course surly ....lots of $$$ to be made besides your spy puts

Been using CLF and dnn to make some decent extra $ to roll into UUUU/gme/weed stonks(granted weed hasn't payed of much lately) plus the old school WSB stonks made a nice chunk...bb, palantir, etc...

I'm down 200$ on tilray but I've been in since before the merger and I recall our own Harrison Stafford giving it praise a month ago??? So I'm going to keep holding.
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,600

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Posted
11 hours ago, Bone3421 said:

 ....lots of $$$ to be made besides your spy puts emoji6.png
 

I played the SPY puts too long, but have made up for it with some calls this year; but this stagnant market for about the last month is boring (and is like a $$$ theta eating machine); I'm thinking it is time to sit on the sideline for a bit and hope for my remaining #stonks to run up (ALPP, AMYZF, IBRX, BPTH).
I'd like to think about putting my investments into a set it and forget it mode, except I'm most long SPY and that is a very concentrated fund; but I can't force myself to go into RSP. Hell I used to have a group of funds (small cap growth, mid cap, dividend, and a value fund) but I rolled all of that into SPY about 13 months ago and haven't looked back. But that damned look forward is troubling me.

fuck it, stocks only go up, and I've never really been able to time shit - I've been lucky a couple of times, which I've mistaken for being smart.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9,939

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14 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I don’t think you understand what a short squeeze is.

I think you misunderstand.

The Bloomberg narrative yesterday (suggesting a correction in the works) is not necessarily accurate or to be relied upon, but the narrative draws interest from those looking to short an asset. When the asset price continues to rise (despite the correction narrative), those who pushed the correction narrative profit from the resulting short squeeze. After all, this remains a heavily backstopped market by the Fed. 

I hope that helps. The invisible hand of the market is not necessarily so invisible at times. 

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ZB'Tejas

ZB'Tejas 594

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Posted
16 hours ago, Bone3421 said:

The old WSB before they got flooded after the gme sneeze in January was legit....also scope r/vitards for steel/construction and of course surly ....lots of $$$ to be made besides your spy puts emoji6.png

Been using CLF and dnn to make some decent extra $ to roll into UUUU/gme/weed stonks(granted weed hasn't payed of much lately) plus the old school WSB stonks made a nice chunk...bb, palantir, etc...

I'm down 200$ on tilray but I've been in since before the merger and I recall our own Harrison Stafford giving it praise a month ago??? So I'm going to keep holding.

I sold off my $TLRY a while back but might want to get back in.... a guy in the industry told me to stick to investing in US weed companies versus Canadian.

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Blotto

Blotto 23,705

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Posted

all weed stocks have been shit recently, but I would agree that the canadian weed companies are a shit investment. they are sitting on a ton of inventory, and to whatever degree the legal situation improves in the US, I don't see why the demand cant be filled by US growers. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19,276

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, Blotto said:

all weed stocks have been shit recently, but I would agree that the canadian weed companies are a shit investment. they are sitting on a ton of inventory, and to whatever degree the legal situation improves in the US, I don't see why the demand cant be filled by US growers. 

It is pretty well known that smaller companies on Canadian stock exchanges may be a half step better than scam Chinese companies when it comes to validity of their financial statements. 

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Blotto

Blotto 23,705

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Posted
On 9/15/2021 at 12:40 PM, Satoshi said:

A lot of the permabears are jerking each other off over this situation. Large Chinese real estate developer. $300B in liabilities. Looks close to some sort of default. I think Beijing softens the landing in big way. Worth following. 

Might be a bit rocky tomorrow morning. Presumably the chinese markets reacting to this shit? 

image.png.fcd72554b86f4e237262bf18edb83625.png

I bought some OTM SPY puts at the friday close. We'll see if they print, but they arent going to offset the carnage if this shit holds up. Surprisingly the US futures don't look too bad so far

image.png.d1a64bfaea24c1f6ac1d945bff02c74f.png

 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15,380

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Blotto said:

Might be a bit rocky tomorrow morning. Presumably the chinese markets reacting to this shit? 

image.png.fcd72554b86f4e237262bf18edb83625.png

I bought some OTM SPY puts at the friday close. We'll see if they print, but they arent going to offset the carnage if this shit holds up. Surprisingly the US futures don't look too bad so far

image.png.d1a64bfaea24c1f6ac1d945bff02c74f.png

 

giphy.gif?cid=5e214886wxbq7rp50ktpc5zdmn

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Blotto

Blotto 23,705

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Posted (edited)

I'm just hoping to sell my puts (or at least half of them) at market open before Jerome gets the printers fired up.

giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47tt3nv3c2llfkvebi7y

edit - sold half for $2.50 right at open, then the other half for $2. (436p, $0.50 cost). Fuckers would have been worth twice what I sold them for if SPY would have stayed where it was 30 minutes before open. Should probably buy calls now and ride it back up. 

Edited by Blotto
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,600

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Let me guess, @Wally Fairway went all in today?

That is a poorly drafted post - it should have said I went all in on Friday. That would totally be me.
But I'm only about 95% invested in the market, about 7% short (puts) and sitting on a small amount of cash; but I'm playing the sidelines today, to see if this thing is a flash event or a correction; if there is some contagion, or if the other shoe is about to drop (debt ceiling, Delta/Mu Covid restrictions expansion, etc)

 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,600

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

spacer.png

Red soup

Yeah that kinda sucks, ain't nowhere to go, ain't nowhere to hide

On the other hand, I peaked and see that I've given up all my gains all the way back to 5/31, and for August I'm down just less than 5.5%. I've been buying SPY calls into these events for just over a year and have done pretty well. But I'm not ready to jump back into the water quite yet (which obviously that y'all should have get back in as soon as possible - or buy puts/sell calls) 

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Blotto

Blotto 23,705

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Blotto said:

edit - sold half for $2.50 right at open, then the other half for $2. (436p, $0.50 cost). Fuckers would have been worth twice what I sold them for if SPY would have stayed where it was 30 minutes before open. Should probably buy calls now and ride it back up. 

Good job on my part selling for $2.25  this AM, they are now hanging around $7.00, lulz. Had  a morning full of meetings and figured the usual afternoon rebound would be in effect. Guess not. 

image.png

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