Markets still falling like whoa

[Trey3216 15380]

8 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Good job on my part selling for $2.25  this AM, they are now hanging around $7.00, lulz. Had  a morning full of meetings and figured the usual afternoon rebound would be in effect. Guess not. 

Yeah, the UVXY $27c for this friday expiry that I was looking at last thursday and decided not to pull the trigger on have gone from $.40 to $5.00.   I'm not a happy man right now.  

[Superhero 8889]

Guess I bought TSM at the wrong time.

 

My parents have $100K sitting on the sidelines (I'm managing for my parents), should I jump in or keep their powder dry?

[52-80 19277]

8 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Yeah that kinda sucks, ain't nowhere to go, ain't nowhere to hide

 

call me crazy, but this is just a 1-day shock. 

did the traditional equity counterbalance go up today?  gold - barely.  treasuries? barely.  investment-grade corporate bonds?  barely.  TIPS?  nope.  fucking crypto?  those dumped. 

essentially the entire market is going down together.  theres not been a discretionary 'rotation' of investment moving from one sector to another.  probably started with the asian session  selling off spx to cover the chinese real estate fuck up.  that sparked "technical" selling all across the board - tripping stop limit triggers, etc.

if its a macro-move.  its prob just a glitch in the matrix.  everyone will wake up tomorrow and pour money right back in.

 

(this is what i tell myself, curled up in the fetus position in a dark corner in the bathroom)

 

[52-80 19277]

SPX been going V shape up.  Lets see if it can sustain this into the close.

[washparkhorn 9939]

Reminds me of the old days with the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) kicking in at the close.

- Bloomberg had been featuring guests predicting a 10% correction last week. 

- Reuters reporting a dip-buying opportunity, fwiw.

Spoiler

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are experiencing the biggest wave of volatility in months but options traders are showing little appetite for more protection, a sign that at least some of them believe the current selloff will be short-lived.

Options market analysts said there were few indications that investors were putting on trades to shield their portfolios from further market drops, at least for now, however.

“The selloff appears to me orderly, somewhat expected and not panicky,” said Susquehanna International Group’s Chris Murphy.

“The VIX and the term structure and skew... Those were all pricing-in a degree of panic,” said Murphy, referring to various gauges of investor expectations for volatility.

The VIX has lingered around the 20 level in recent days, pointing to elevated expectations for near-term stock market gyrations, even as stocks remained close to record highs. September has historically been a tough month for stocks, and the S&P has gone more than 300 calendar days without a selloff of 5% or more.

“It’s going to probably take a little bit more than one day for everyone to start piling into hedges,” Murphy said.

Instead, many investors appeared to be focused on reaping gains on existing hedges that would have profited from a fall in stocks, analysts said.

“Remember that the market was extremely well-hedged coming into this move down,” Amy Wu Silverman, equity derivatives strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note.

“We are seeing hedges monetized and investors actually purchase upside via call spreads in S&P,” she said.

Buying upside call spreads is a relatively inexpensive options strategy that allows investors to benefit from a rebound in stock prices.

Stock market sell-offs over the last few years have been fleeting. That raises the urgency of monetizing - or taking profits from - existing hedges before a rapid rebound in prices can erase the gains, analysts said.

“The market sell-off that escalated overnight we believe is primarily driven by technical selling flows in an environment of poor liquidity, and overreaction of discretionary traders to perceived risks,” analysts at JP Morgan said in a note.

They said they viewed the selling as a buying opportunity.

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks-volatility/as-stocks-fall-options-traders-show-no-rush-to-guard-against-deeper-pullback-idUSL1N2QM1L2

 

[DonkeyCigars 143]

1 hour ago, Superhero said:

Guess I bought TSM at the wrong time.

 

My parents have $100K sitting on the sidelines (I'm managing for my parents), should I jump in or keep their powder dry?

buy tomorrow morning and get a free 10% for doing nothing in a few weeks/months. Easy to say when not my money, but historically that's what is happening with this sell-offs. Check out last year around this time, same thing.

[Blotto 23679]

Seems like  perfect time for the clowns in Congress to get into a political dick measuring contest over the debt ceiling. they all spend money on the shit they want, bitch about spending money on the shit that others want, and then point fingers at each other when we run out of money.....every year. Worthless cocksuckers. 

[staboner 5015]

i am thinking the time is nigh my homies. the chinese are surly smart enough to know they will have to eat the property bullet at some point. Now in this corona soup may just be the best time you know. 

alternatively some communist party dude was banging the help at Evergrande - shit went sideways (or so I hear) - and now pussy will destroy us all like it always does. yeah thats probably it and now the world will burn.

that'll be $9.95

 

[52-80 19277]

SPX futures is +50 points today, so the dip was dipped and now back to regularly scheduled programming

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13153]

56 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

SPX futures is +50 points today, so the dip was dipped and now back to regularly scheduled programming

Or dead cat.

[52-80 19277]

6 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Or dead cat.

give us more

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

13 hours ago, Blotto said:

Seems like  perfect time for the clowns in Congress to get into a political dick measuring contest over the debt ceiling. they all spend money on the shit they want, bitch about spending money on the shit that others want, and then point fingers at each other when we run out of money.....every year. Worthless cocksuckers. 

That 10 billion dollars required for studying the impact of dropping a tomato from an airplane to determine the impact on global warming ain't gonna pay for itself. 

[Trey3216 15380]

Indexes headed for red now.  I bought 50 of the weekly UVXY $30 strikes at the open.  Up about 45% on them right now.   I think this week has a chance to be really ugly.  

[Incredulity 11686]

I think WSB calls this Kangaroo Market...

[Wally Fairway 5600]

3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Indexes headed for red now.  I bought 50 of the weekly UVXY $30 strikes at the open.  Up about 45% on them right now.   I think this week has a chance to be really ugly.  

 

34 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I think WSB calls this Kangaroo Market...

It is a day traders dream/nightmare - now I can lose money timing the market for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

[Superhero 8889]

It’s no secret that the Chinese were borrowing money to build cities no one wanted in order to show high GDP growth.

$80 billion is a staggering number, and that’s just for Evergrand. How many other developers are also shitting their pants?

Hope the ripple effect will not be similar to 2008, but I’m not optimistic. Time to hold onto your ass. 

[Trey3216 15380]

6 minutes ago, Superhero said:

It’s no secret that the Chinese were borrowing money to build cities no one wanted in order to show high GDP growth.

$80 billion is a staggering number, and that’s just for Evergrand. How many other developers are also shitting their pants?

Hope the ripple effect will not be similar to 2008, but I’m not optimistic. Time to hold onto your ass. 

I’m quite certain the tally of this ordeal is going to approach the levels of debt that we saw in ‘06-09, if that contagion makes its way through the entire system, and you combine nearly $2tn of student loan debt on top of it, then add Covid as a cherry on top, it could get fucking ugly.   

[Parliament 14368]

Time to buy puts!

[Wally Fairway 5600]

3 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Time to buy puts!

I'd have to sell my calls first, right? 

[52-80 19277]

this aggression will not stand, man

[Sbbruin 21912]

10 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Time to buy puts!

I'm sticking with pork bellies, which are used to make bacon, which you might find in a bacon and lettuce and tomato sandwich.

[Incredulity 11686]

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

8 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

I'm sticking with pork bellies, which are used to make bacon, which you might find in a bacon and lettuce and tomato sandwich.

[Wally Fairway 5600]

My advice for tomorrow is to buy puts if the market opens up, and calls if it opens down. Spend a little cash and by barely ITM 2 day out (Friday) expiry and then look to sell them by 10:30 when the reversal happens. Rinse, wash, repeat daily until the market arrhythmia is cured.
$9.95 please 

Edited September 21, 2021 by Wally Fairway

[Sam Lin 3564]

7 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

I'd have to sell my calls first, right? 

No sir. That way you have a straddle, which spreads your legs wider for the forthcoming kick in the balls.

[Incredulity 11686]

33 minutes ago, Sam Lin said:

No sir. That way you have a straddle, which spreads your legs wider for the forthcoming kick in the balls.

[Lurch 5940]

I’m assume there’s a market timing play around the pending debt ceiling drama? Anyone aware of the history of how this has hit

[washparkhorn 9939]

15 minutes ago, Lurch said:

I’m assume there’s a market timing play around the pending debt ceiling drama? Anyone aware of the history of how this has hit

Quote

We do not expect significant disruptions to the financial markets but would not be surprised for stocks could be more volatile as the deadline approaches, as was the case with the days ahead of the 2011 and 2013 “feared dates.”  Ultimately, I believe another incremental step by our nation’s politicians to stave off a fiscal crisis should prod markets higher.  As Winston Churchill is said to have said, “Americans always do the right thing, but only after exhausting all other options.”

https://www.invesco.com/us/en/insights/debt-ceiling-drama-what-could-it-mean-for-stocks.html

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

48 minutes ago, Lurch said:

I’m assume there’s a market timing play around the pending debt ceiling drama? Anyone aware of the history of how this has hit

Nah. Congress ends up folding like a cheap chair every time.

[52-80 19277]

see.  spy back above 440

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

7 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

see.  spy back above 440

Buy the dip, assholes.

[StassneyHorn 6692]

Didn’t check previous pages if posted, cause I only like to visit when I make money.

Some guy has taken the financial transaction disclosures that politicians have to make every 45 days and created two websites. If Reps and Senators can trade on inside knowledge, we should be able to mimic. Could be fun to make a new account and watch your progress.

https://senatestockwatcher.com

https://housestockwatcher.com
 

Nancy Pelosi’s husband runs a hedge fund
https://housestockwatcher.com/summary_by_rep/Hon. Nancy Pelosi

Would think southern reps with military bases could give tipoffs on defense contracts. Lot of scenarios. I’m sure Michael McCaul would be a good follow. Haven’t found Mittens yet. I think best way to view is whose been active recently rather than overall amount of trades

Edited September 22, 2021 by StassneyHorn

[Blotto 23679]

 Despite decent sales growth, NKE is down 4% after hours due to comments from their ceo about the effects of widespread Covid shutdowns in Vietnam.

Quote

 

Previously, I had shared that we for transit times to remain elevated for the balance of fiscal ‘22. Unfortunately, the situation deteriorated even further in the first quarter, with North America and EMEA seeing increases in transit times due primarily to port and rail congestion and labor shortages. Additionally, several of our factory partners in Vietnam and Indonesia were required to abruptly cease operations in the first quarter. As of today, Indonesia is now fully operational. But in Vietnam, nearly all footwear factories remain closed by government mandate.

Our experience with COVID-related factory closures suggest that reopening and ramping back to full production scale will take time. Therefore, we’re revising our short-term financial outlook to incorporate the following factors: 10 weeks of production already lost in Vietnam since mid-July; factory reopening to occur in phases beginning in October with a ramp to full production over several months; and elevated transit times, consistent with where we are now operating today.

We now expect fiscal ‘22 revenue to grow mid-single digits versus the prior year versus our prior guidance of low double-digit growth, due solely to the supply chain impacts that I just described. Specifically for Q2, we expect revenue growth to be flat to down low single digits versus the prior year as factory closures have impacted production and delivery times for the holiday and spring seasons. Lost weeks of production, combined with longer transit times, will lead to short-term inventory shortages in the marketplace for the next few quarters.

 

apparently the vax rate is still  single digits over there. may be worth paying attn to.  this link provides a list of other companies with significant manufacturing exsposure in vietnam

 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/16/coronavirus-restrictions-retailers-reconsider-vietnam-manufacturing.html

[DonkeyCigars 143]

 

On 9/20/2021 at 2:35 PM, Superhero said:

Guess I bought TSM at the wrong time.

 

My parents have $100K sitting on the sidelines (I'm managing for my parents), should I jump in or keep their powder dry?

Well did you listen to me? If you went all in on the Monday sell-off and sold at opening bell tomorrow, you'd have made how much?

[Fudge Nuggets 19276]

Did you assholes buy the fucking dip or what?

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

8 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Did you assholes buy the fucking dip or what?

[Wally Fairway 5600]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Did you assholes buy the fucking dip or what?

but what if the dip isn't over?
maybe I'm waiting for a double dip; but not a triple dip .... that would not be good planning; unless you think there is a triple dip coming, is that what you think?

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

[Wally Fairway 5600]

On 9/24/2021 at 9:23 AM, Wally Fairway said:

but what if the dip isn't over?
maybe I'm waiting for a double dip; but not a triple dip .... that would not be good planning; unless you think there is a triple dip coming, is that what you think?

So is today the double dip (and thus buying calls) or is it the prelude to the 2nd/3rd dip, pending debt ceiling showdown & boisterous politico talks (and therefore buying puts)

the correct answer is 
 

Spoiler

why not both?

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

Tough day

[52-80 19277]

On 9/24/2021 at 1:40 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

Did you assholes buy the fucking dip or what?

long SPX futures since 4433

you other fuckers help out plz

[Wally Fairway 5600]

57 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Tough day

Whoa

[Wally Fairway 5600]

42 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

long SPX futures since 4433

you other fuckers help out plz

I've held SPY calls with 10/21, 1/22, 6/22 and 1/23 expiry, but sold most of them off over the course of the last couple of weeks.

Now only holding some of the 1/22's, my guess is that we are into either a short ran correction or best case lots of day-to-day swings. Therefore this is a clear sign for everyone on surly to go long.

[pearlandhorn 3327]

56 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I've held SPY calls with 10/21, 1/22, 6/22 and 1/23 expiry, but sold most of them off over the course of the last couple of weeks.

Now only holding some of the 1/22's, my guess is that we are into either a short ran correction or best case lots of day-to-day swings. Therefore this is a clear sign for everyone on surly to go long.

How long?

[Anastasis 23498]

welp that waws a fucking bloodbath day. 

[Wally Fairway 5600]

1 minute ago, pearlandhorn said:

How long?

that will cost you $9.99 tree-fiddy

[Superhero 8889]

On 9/23/2021 at 8:28 PM, DonkeyCigars said:

Well did you listen to me? If you went all in on the Monday sell-off and sold at opening bell tomorrow, you'd have made how much?

Nope

 

On 9/24/2021 at 4:40 AM, Fudge Nuggets said:

Did you assholes buy the fucking dip or what?

Nope

 

Something about falling blade yada yada yada.

99% of you on this thread are more savvy than me when it comes to trading. But I've made the mistake (many times) of buying after broad market dips only for it to drop further. I can see doing that for individual stocks if they got hammered for missing earnings by $0.01, but probably gonna sit on the sidelines until October when we find out if the debt ceiling's gonna be raised.  If they just keep playing politics, then hold on to your asses.

[Fudge Nuggets 19276]

5 hours ago, Superhero said:

Nope

 

Nope

 

Something about falling blade yada yada yada.

99% of you on this thread are more savvy than me when it comes to trading. But I've made the mistake (many times) of buying after broad market dips only for it to drop further. I can see doing that for individual stocks if they got hammered for missing earnings by $0.01, but probably gonna sit on the sidelines until October when we find out if the debt ceiling's gonna be raised.  If they just keep playing politics, then hold on to your asses.

As a small, individual investor my only advantage is time.  I don’t put in any money that I need access to in the next few years.  If the market keeps going lower, which it usually does, I either buy a bit more or just wait it out.  That’s why I prefer dividend paying stocks as they pay you to wait.

[52-80 19277]

after this market thoroughly whooped everyones ass this week, and all of the bounces got sold off, and morale is bottomed (and i nearly went short), SPX decided to ramp +60 points in a straight line. 

 

what a fucking ride

[Wally Fairway 5600]

On 10/1/2021 at 3:24 PM, 52-80 said:

after this market thoroughly whooped everyones ass this week, and all of the bounces got sold off, and morale is bottomed (and i nearly went short), SPX decided to ramp +60 points in a straight line. 

 

what a fucking ride

The roller coaster continues