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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Vertigo

Vertigo 20276

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Washpark said:

 

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/view/articles/2018-07-25/facebook-fb-earnings-financial-facade-develops-serious-cracks

Zuckerburg may be in trouble with the SEC, if you take a look at the insider selling it is pretty egregious.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/FB/insideractions

Articles are already coming out. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-26/sec-may-want-take-look-facebook-insiders-dumped-41-billion-stock-scandal

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14582

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Once companies realize advertising on Facebook is useless then the whole thing will crash.  P&G quit spending hundreds of millions of dollars on ads on FB and YouTube and it didn't impact their sales at all.

Most of Facebook's users at this point are olds talking to each other and advertisers hate olds.

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Yarbr

Yarbr 123

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Once companies realize advertising on Facebook is useless then the whole thing will crash.  P&G quit spending hundreds of millions of dollars on ads on FB and YouTube and it didn't impact their sales at all.

Most of Facebook's users at this point are olds talking to each other and advertisers hate olds.

So where will they take their advertising money and spend it?

My wife, a teacher, said all the kids use snapchat now so it peaked my interest. Sort of interested, but once teens and young adults get in the target demo age for advertisers, will they still use snapchat?

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21829

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Once companies realize advertising on Facebook is useless then the whole thing will crash.  P&G quit spending hundreds of millions of dollars on ads on FB and YouTube and it didn't impact their sales at all.

Most of Facebook's users at this point are olds talking to each other and advertisers hate olds.

I fell out of the 18-49 demo a couple of years ago.  But I am still relevant, dammit!

And I've bought a few things through FB ads.

Edited by Sbbruin
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Rusty Shackelford

Rusty Shackelford 414

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1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Tomorrow's GDP number should be very interesting. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/26/kudlow-says-fridays-gdp.html

White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow predicted that the second-quarter GDP release Friday will live up to the mounting hype.

"You're going to get a very good economic growth number tomorrow. Big," Kudlow, head of the National Economic Council, told the Fox Business Network in an interview Thursday.

While he said he could not speculate on where the number will land specifically, he did not disagree with a suggestion that it would be in the 4 to 4.5 percent range.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26437

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3 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/26/kudlow-says-fridays-gdp.html

White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow predicted that the second-quarter GDP release Friday will live up to the mounting hype.

"You're going to get a very good economic growth number tomorrow. Big," Kudlow, head of the National Economic Council, told the Fox Business Network in an interview Thursday.

While he said he could not speculate on where the number will land specifically, he did not disagree with a suggestion that it would be in the 4 to 4.5 percent range.

Barclays says 5.2, others revising down to 3.8. 

Anything north of 4% and the Fed is likely to accelerate rate hikes.

No cloak room, but debt financing stimulus during expansion is really stupid. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15345

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1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Barclays says 5.2, others revising down to 3.8. 

Anything north of 4% and the Fed is likely to accelerate rate hikes.

No cloak room, but debt financing stimulus during expansion is really stupid. 

Anything under 4 and the market is gonna be ugly tomorrow.  But I think we're in for a 4.5 number  

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15345

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Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

That feels about right to me. Barclays keeps reiterating 5.2 even today, which I find puzzling. Any  thoughts on why they might do that?

A lot of that is likely due to the gains in the O&G market during Q2, and it's not that far-fetched to imagine those gains will have an addt'l .7% effect on the market.  5.2 is a huge #, and yes, the FED will definitely act quickly on that.  Matter of fact, we could see a huge GDP # actually cause a major market fade over the course of the day as folks undoubtedly have reports typed up and ready to send when the big # does come out.  Think the GS and MS of the world.  

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15345

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1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

We're thinking about this the same way. I'm actually more worried about the higher number than the lower number given the anticipatory nature of valuations. 

Yep.   Consequences for everything even if they’re marginally ‘counter-intuitive’.  Even then, I’d be more happy seeing real economic growth associated with a number like that.   

Another factor in Barclays assessment is likely the 3.8% unemployment rate and numbers I’ve seen about 2.2mm fewer on food stamps and 1.8mm fewer SSDI recipients.  

Mid those people are employed and doing better for themselves, that will have a multiplicative effect in the real economy    

 

 

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Blotto

Blotto 23490

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Once companies realize advertising on Facebook is useless then the whole thing will crash.  P&G quit spending hundreds of millions of dollars on ads on FB and YouTube and it didn't impact their sales at all.

Most of Facebook's users at this point are olds talking to each other and advertisers hate olds.

P&G would be better off paying a Kardashian/Jenner to shove a bottle of fabreeze up their snatch on Instagram than giving FB ad dollars.

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SDG

SDG 3319

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Posted

So I bought some KNX yesterday after it got hammered (I worked for them before grad school).  With the numbers above they should have some good gains if they can solve their driver shortage issues.  

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15345

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Yarbr said:

Trey, curious on your thoughts on TWTR. 

Frustrating.  I think they’re a better platform going forward with the removal of bots and what have you.   Numbers were solid.  Caution on guidance did them in.     I do think it opens the. Back up as an M&A target.   The company’s momentum is pretty healthy in terms of Earnings, Rev, ARPU, and other metrics.  

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Captainant

Captainant 27637

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Posted
22 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Once companies realize advertising on Facebook is useless then the whole thing will crash.  P&G quit spending hundreds of millions of dollars on ads on FB and YouTube and it didn't impact their sales at all.

Most of Facebook's users at this point are olds talking to each other and advertisers hate olds.

You laugh, but my MIL buys dumb shit off facebook ads on a near monthly basis. I'm sure she's but one of millions doing so

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14582

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1 hour ago, Captainant said:

You laugh, but my MIL buys dumb shit off facebook ads on a near monthly basis. I'm sure she's but one of millions doing so

Like I said, P&G was very surprised when they pulled their online ad budgets.  They expected a sales hit but there was nothing.  The average time spent on their ads was something like 1.7 seconds.  P&G was one of the bigger spenders in online advertising, too.

I'll see if I can try and find a link later.  It's out there, though.....

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15345

Posted
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23 minutes ago, SDG said:

HMNY is having a bad day down 65%

Since the reverse split the other day they’ve dropped from 24 to 3.  Almost identical to DRYS.   They’ll reverse again next week and get taken to zero again.   Absolute dumpster fire 

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14582

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Grade of D as in David said:

Looks like P&G cut about 200mm total 

 

https://www.adweek.com/digital/procter-gamble-cut-140-million-in-digital-ad-spending-because-of-brand-safety-concerns/

 

 

Sounds about right.  I think they said about six months later that it didn't impact sales at all and they were very surprised.

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Blotto

Blotto 23490

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Since the reverse split the other day they’ve dropped from 24 to 3.  Almost identical to DRYS.   They’ll reverse again next week and get taken to zero again.   Absolute dumpster fire 

I was really hoping I could buy some puts post reverse split, but I didn't see any listed, at my brokerages, at least. They burn 40-50 mil a month, and needed an emergency loan for 5 mil on Thursday to keep the dream alive...for a few days anyways. Pretty shady history laid out in this article

https://www.businessinsider.com/moviepass-owner-emerged-from-indian-company-accused-of-massive-fraud-2018-7

Edited by Blotto
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