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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Posted
Posted (edited)

Hey, guess who owns Amazon? And guess which company totally blew on earnings and is down 5%+ AH?

It's like I keep betting black and it's come up red 28 times in a row.

Edited by FirstTimeCaller
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Blotto

Blotto 23509

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Everyone who owns any indexed mutual fund owns a shitload of Amazon.

AAPL (6% of S&P, 11% of QQQ)  and AMZN (3.9% of S&P, 7.8% of QQQ)  both down roughly  3.5% after hours. Both with a cautionary outlook on supply chain issues /Q4 outlook. Could be bumpy tomorrow . Somebody get Jpow some meth.

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"In the fourth quarter, we expect to incur several billion dollars of additional costs in our Consumer business as we manage through labor supply shortages, increased wage costs, global supply chain issues, and increased freight and shipping costs—all while doing whatever it takes to minimize the impact on customers and selling partners this holiday season," Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said in the company's earnings release. "It’ll be expensive for us in the short term, but it’s the right prioritization for our customers and partners.”

For the current quarter, Amazon said it expects to see net sales come in at as much as $140 billion, missing estimates for nearly $142 billion, based on Bloomberg consensus data. It also said operating income could come in between breakeven and $3 billion, coming in well short of the $7.4 billion estimated. 

 

no worries

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Dr. Teeth

Dr. Teeth 5844

Posted
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3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

got burned BIGLY playing amazon at the last earning.  this time, another casual 100 pts drop after earnings.  EPS looks ass

I’m interested in the trading in Amazon. Someone had to have seen something. Market was rallying and Amazon actually had a decent drop at the same time. I noticed it around 3:15 EST. Market rallied for another 30 minutes despite it. Momentum plays, including Amazon, have been ripping into the close recently. So it was really weird that we saw such a drop against the rally.  

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I continue to just be completely blindsided by the V/MA/PYPL holdings. Markets hitting new highs every day and despite 2/3 of my holdings in index funds, I am well off the pace. Sucks bigly.

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52-80

52-80 19158

Posted
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18 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I continue to just be completely blindsided by the V/MA/PYPL holdings. Markets hitting new highs every day and despite 2/3 of my holdings in index funds, I am well off the pace. Sucks bigly.

if we were smart enough to dump our life savings into Bed Bath and Beyond, we'd be +50% afterhours today.

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6 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

if we were smart enough to dump our life savings into Bed Bath and Beyond, we'd be +50% afterhours today.

Exactly. Seen a theory that when a company is unprofitable, the share price can soar because there is nothing to really anchor it to, other than the story you can tell yourself. But once a company earns a profit, then you have to reel in those expectations.

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Just now, Walte464 said:

+70% on a short squeeze

Huge amount of floor space to heat/cool/pay taxes on? Check.
Huge amount of employees with wages rising? Check.
Huge number of SKUs that can easily be found online? Check.
Huge number of products likely slowed down by supply chain issues? Check.

To. The. Moon.

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52-80

52-80 19158

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

Any of y’all long semiconductors? NVDA has been a beast. Looks like the entire sector is with the demand/supply issues and opportunities. SOXL has had a great run.

ive been going in and out of soxl.  the growth path hasnt been as steady as i expected, given overall sector bullishness.  i might just sit on SMH

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Castilian Cum Stain

Castilian Cum Stain 25

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

Any of y’all long semiconductors? NVDA has been a beast. Looks like the entire sector is with the demand/supply issues and opportunities. SOXL has had a great run.

I own the Vanecks Semi Etf or whatever the fuck it’s called. Had it for awhile and it’s not going away with Metaverse and driverlesss cars.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14596

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Gyms opening back up is a killer to their business model.

Not really.  Almost everyone with a Peleton has a gym membership and will keep it.  The talking heads on CNBC we’re comparing it to Planet Fitness and that’s not accurate at all.  Lifetime is a better comparison.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14596

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

The tax bracket that buys Peleton isn’t growing. It’s not too surprising they’ve saturated that market. The pandemic got them to that point much faster than it would have taken in normal circumstances.

I do agree with that.  They prolly pulled forward a lot of sales that would have otherwise happened but no one who bought a bike a year ago is selling one now.

It’s a more mature company now.

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52-80

52-80 19158

Posted
Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Gyms opening back up is a killer to their business model.

i think the appeal is you dont have to leave the house, you cycle when you want, and theres a live class with a quality instructor available at any time.  thats still a very different proposition from the gym.

always a murky job to ascribe a narrative to a 1-day move in a stock cuz all it takes is 1 big speculative fund to get squeezed (up) or sell out (down).  that said, 2 consecutive downtrending Q revs doesnt help...and plummeting sequential earnings

 

Edited by 52-80
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7 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Everyone expected something static but they posted shitty numbers, lowered guidance, and said they were going after a lower income group or something.  That’s contrary to their current brand.

It's a $2,000 exercise bike with ongoing subscription that saw a HUGE spike due to COVID and still couldn't turn a profit. If not now, then when?

Edited by FirstTimeCaller
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5 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Moderna and Merck getting their teeth kicked in on the Pfizer news. Down 22% and 9.5%, respectively.

On the opposite side of the coin, Expedia, Live Nation and Royal Caribbean all up double digits.

Yeah the re-opening play was up huge today. Seems a bit of an over-reaction. The numbers were off the charts.

Another big one was ABNB. I don't understand the valuation. I actually owned some shares and sold for a loss months ago as I just don't see how they can scale. They are priced like there is a huge runway of new hosts to tap into. I just don't see it.

Meanwhile, I think that bookings were down something like 9% versus 2019, yet revenue was up huge. So that means people are paying a lot more for each place. How much longer can that last before people think hotels start to look more attractive due to pricing?

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5 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

October jobs report of 531K exceeded expectations by ~100K. August and Sept. disappointing reports were revised significantly higher by a cumulative 235K. 

Pfizer's ant-viral drug trial goes extremely well and should likely get EUA in US post-haste.

Bears devastated.

Finally reaching back to my previous highs despite the market being well above. Thanks crummy-performing financial plays.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14596

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

It's a $2,000 exercise bike with ongoing subscription that saw a HUGE spike due to COVID and still couldn't turn a profit. If not now, then when?

That's where I'm starting to lean.  They're obviously trying to flood the market with bikes by lowering the price but that starts to cheapen their brand image.  Talking head on CNBC brought up the point that they brought on a lot of fixed costs to ramp up production and now demand is weakening.  Said they're on the of the few retailers/suppliers that has a lot of inventory right now.  He kinda has a point.

 

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Posted

So some good news for the markets. They began this historic bull run in 2009, right as the football team started its historic bear run. Correlation = Causation.

At this point, it seems at least 2-3 more years before anything improves on the field. So lever up, buy shitcoins, invest heavily in unicorns, cause we just lost by 23 to Iowa State. The bull run has a while to go evidently.

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