Markets still falling like whoa

[Trey3216 15347]

It’ll be real fucking ugly when all of this shit unravels.  Like 2-3x worse than ‘08/9.  It’ll speed up the student loan debt bomb and all hit simultaneously.   We could see a 60-75% pullback in the market with a major black swan event.   

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

It’ll be real fucking ugly when all of this shit unravels.  Like 2-3x worse than ‘08/9.  It’ll speed up the student loan debt bomb and all hit simultaneously.   We could see a 60-75% pullback in the market with a major black swan event.   

YOU SHUT YOUR WHORE MOUTH

[52-80 19168]

41 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It’ll be real fucking ugly when all of this shit unravels.  Like 2-3x worse than ‘08/9.  It’ll speed up the student loan debt bomb and all hit simultaneously.   We could see a 60-75% pullback in the market with a major black swan event.   

youre invited to our next party

[Wally Fairway 5559]

3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

It’ll be real fucking ugly when all of this shit unravels.  Like 2-3x worse than ‘08/9.  It’ll speed up the student loan debt bomb and all hit simultaneously.   We could see a 60-75% pullback in the market with a major black swan event.   

buy the dip, buy the dip, buy the dip

Now say it!!!

[staboner 4984]

5 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

It’ll be real fucking ugly when all of this shit unravels.  Like 2-3x worse than ‘08/9.  It’ll speed up the student loan debt bomb and all hit simultaneously.   We could see a 60-75% pullback in the market with a major black swan event.   

[Trey3216 15347]

18 minutes ago, staboner said:

I’m not a bear by any stretch, I’m just a realist.  

[Parliament 14260]

6 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

It’ll be real fucking ugly when all of this shit unravels.  Like 2-3x worse than ‘08/9.  It’ll speed up the student loan debt bomb and all hit simultaneously.   We could see a 60-75% pullback in the market with a major black swan event.   

My body is ready.  (I have a generator.)

[Hank_Hill 18881]

Seems excessive 

[Wally Fairway 5559]

2 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I’m not a bear by any stretch, I’m just a realist.  

everybody thinks they are a realist - the bear, the bull, the stagflation, the cryptoguys, the preppers, hell even the aggy thinks they are realists, FOMO & TINAs, everybody invests because they think they see the financial landscape through a realistic vision....and one or more might be partially correct, the lucky one might even be close. 

[staboner 4984]

2 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I’m not a bear by any stretch, I’m just a realist.  

i've been a realist since 25k. and i have been wrong (at least timing wise). 

and the beat rolls on.

the best thing would be a good recession IMO. take the needed pain. but hey maybe we weimar it up dawg and wipe asses with cashes

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

11 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I’m not a bear by any stretch, I’m just a realist.  

Nah. You're one of those guys who makes wild ass guesses and hides when they don't come true.

TRUST IN THE BRRRRRT 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

9 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

hell even the aggy thinks they are realists,

Not gonna lie, you had me in the first half.

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

We had a black swan event in March of 2020 and the market bounced back like it always does.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

We had a black swan event in March of 2020 and the market bounced back like it always does.

Black Swan is fucking delicious. 

[elfenix 34317]

3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

We had a black swan event in March of 2020 and the market bounced back like it always does.

even faster than it always does because the fed announced a huge amount of support and so did the elected branches. 

[davidg 4038]

On 2/10/2021 at 1:29 PM, Blotto said:

 

that would give Rivian a market cap roughly equal to Ford, who reported $127B in sales last year. But we all know how this works, if they are seeking a valuation of $50B it will probably be at $100B by the end of the first day. 

 

Stop.The.Madness.

You called this pretty good.  $100B eob yesterday after the IPO.  Up 22% today.  Anyone get in on this?

[CooterBrown 18015]

even faster than it always does because the fed announced a huge amount of support and so did the elected branches. 

And they’ll do it every time from this point forward.

[Guest]

Anyone else seeing individual names in their portfolio get killed while the broader market doesn't flinch? The clip below describes my stuff perfectly, although I'm in the bigger, less speculative names (or so I thought!)

 

[washparkhorn 9939]

The Fed taper is about to begin.

The Fed Plan - reduce the $120 billion a month in purchases by $15 billion each month.  (No cold turkey detox for the hogs addicted to the brrrt juice; cold turkey might kill the patient).

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

7 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

The Fed taper is about to begin.

The Fed Plan - reduce the $120 billion a month in purchases by $15 billion each month.  (No cold turkey detox for the hogs addicted to the brrrt juice; cold turkey might kill the patient).

[washparkhorn 9939]

15 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

already priced in months ago 

Next comes the "taper tantrum" where the addicts begin the bargaining phase of recovery.

[Wally Fairway 5559]

48 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I would join in the panic, if only my stocks and stonks weren't going up today. So maybe later 

 

Spoiler

they only go up

 

 

 

[washparkhorn 9939]

2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

they only go up

Until they don't. 

Dollar holding strong. Fed Juicer still juicing. Asset bubbles inflated.

$105 billion from Nov to Dec;

$90 billion in a month from Dec to Jan; . . . 

 

[Castilian Cum Stain 25]

2 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Until they don't. 

Dollar holding strong. Fed Juicer still juicing. Asset bubbles inflated.

$105 billion from Nov to Dec;

$90 billion in a month from Dec to Jan; . . . 

 

Fuck off to the stock market is falling thread, clegggg

[washparkhorn 9939]

10 hours ago, Castilian Cum Stain said:

clegggg

 

we grow or die. I am a permabull. The alternative is unthinkable. 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

On 11/13/2021 at 12:14 AM, washparkhorn said:

we grow or die. I am a permabull. The alternative is unthinkable. 

[Blotto 23559]

On 11/11/2021 at 2:40 PM, davidg said:

You called this pretty good.  $100B eob yesterday after the IPO.  Up 22% today.  Anyone get in on this?

And one week later the market cap is $130 billion, dwarfing F and GM even though they arent selling shit. Wheeeeee!

[swraith 347]

the Rivian valuation/market cap is mind blowing

[Blotto 23559]

7 minutes ago, swraith said:

the Rivian valuation/market cap is mind blowing

It really is. Rivian has a contract with Amazon for 100K electric vans, presumably spread out over a couple of years. they also hope to sell their EV pickup truck to the mass market starting at ~$70K. 

Meanwhile, Ford sold about 4 million vehicles worldwide last year and even with the covid shock and supply chain interruptions has a TTM net income of $2.8B.They will be selling the F-150 lightening starting at ~$40K. The reviews I think are generally favorable, although who knows how it will stack up to the rivian.

Yet, Rivian has a market cap approx twice that of Ford. Even funnier is that Ford owns about $12% of Rivian, making their investment worth $15Billion, which is equivalent to about 20% of Fords market cap. Crazy times with all of this money floating around.

[Incredulity 11675]

well this sucks.

 

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

well this sucks.

 

Anything in particular?

As a V/MA/PYPL holder, the past month has been... interesting. PayPal has lost 25% (!) in a month on... nothing? Visa/Mastercard dove on Amazon UK saying they are not going to accept V cards. At least that I can understand. It's not sinking me because I am most in index funds, but if they even were flat for the past month I'd be doing much, much, much better.

Edited November 18, 2021 by FirstTimeCaller

[Incredulity 11675]

nope, just the general performance of the market the last couple days. 

this AM was straight down, but promptly bounced a few min after my post.  Still sucks though.

[workswithseed 2112]

27 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Anything in particular?

As a V/MA/PYPL holder, the past month has been... interesting. PayPal has lost 25% (!) in a month on... nothing? Visa/Mastercard dove on Amazon UK saying they are not going to accept V cards. At least that I can understand. It's not sinking me because I am most in index funds, but if they even were flat for the past month I'd be doing much, much, much better.

They're not accepting virgins? It must be pretty bad there.

[52-80 19168]

54 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

  Still sucks though.

😅

[Wally Fairway 5559]

3 hours ago, Incredulity said:

but promptly bounced a few min after my post

results = causation, keep posting

[Incredulity 11675]

6 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

results = causation, keep posting

Believe me I have considered it.

[Guest]

Very weird market. Seems like a lot of stocks are seeing massive drawdowns, yet somehow the indexes are fine. Case in point -- the S&P was down 0.3%. All my individual holdings were down huge. And this is a portfolio of highly profitable, $100B+ market cap stuff.

Even despite index funds being 70% of my stuff, I was down about four times what the broader market saw. Couldn't pick stocks as bad as these have been for the past month if I even tried. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19206]

Are you going to keep bitching about your shitty stock picks or finally man up and admit you were wrong by selling them?

[52-80 19168]

12 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Very weird market. Seems like a lot of stocks are seeing massive drawdowns, yet somehow the indexes are fine. Case in point -- the S&P was down 0.3%. All my individual holdings were down huge. And this is a portfolio of highly profitable, $100B+ market cap stuff.

Story for atleast the past year.  Market churns from sector to sector, one day its financials staying strong and tech taking a hit, next day its small cap growth while materials get hammered, etc.  Im not quick or lucky enough to play that game, so starting to lean away more and more from individual equities and playing the indexes and index-vols

[Guest]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

Story for atleast the past year.  Market churns from sector to sector, one day its financials staying strong and tech taking a hit, next day its small cap growth while materials get hammered, etc.  Im not quick or lucky enough to play that game, so starting to lean away more and more from individual equities and playing the indexes and index-vols

Same here. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19206]

It's almost like Warren Buffett and John Bogle know what they're talking about.

[Hank_Hill 18881]

Indexes are low risk low return investments, news at 5

[B00M 6420]

Working from home during 2020 allowed me to fuck around and find out that I too am an average investor with no business trying to pick individual stocks. 

[Wally Fairway 5559]

Will someone tell me when it is time to get more conservative, sell my calls and take some SPY and other ETF's off the table?
Because I sure as hell can't figure out this market, maybe I should buy some puts and the market will continue to go up.

[52-80 19168]

On 11/10/2021 at 8:50 PM, Trey3216 said:

It’ll be real fucking ugly when all of this shit unravels.  Like 2-3x worse than ‘08/9.  It’ll speed up the student loan debt bomb and all hit simultaneously.   We could see a 60-75% pullback in the market with a major black swan event.   

 

[52-80 19168]

Todays Turkey rally kicked ass. A little bear trap in the morning and then strength the rest of the day. 

Historically the market goes strong to close the year, so hopefully we have a nice Santa rally as well. 
 

Im buying the dips and short-selling any VIX spikes

[Lobwedgephil 1139]

6 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Todays Turkey rally kicked ass. A little bear trap in the morning and then strength the rest of the day. 

Historically the market goes strong to close the year, so hopefully we have a nice Santa rally as well. 
 

Im buying the dips and short-selling any VIX spikes

Should be good plan, seasonality shows strength until Dec 6th for Santa rally, then chop. 

[Trey3216 15347]

On 11/24/2021 at 10:20 PM, Lobwedgephil said:

Should be good plan, seasonality shows strength until Dec 6th for Santa rally, then chop. 

 

On 11/24/2021 at 3:28 PM, 52-80 said:

Todays Turkey rally kicked ass. A little bear trap in the morning and then strength the rest of the day. 

Historically the market goes strong to close the year, so hopefully we have a nice Santa rally as well. 
 

Im buying the dips and short-selling any VIX spikes

About that…

[52-80 19168]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

 

About that…

Already long some futures from my phone. Baby needs new shows for xmas

[52-80 19168]

and shorting VXZ1 at 23.5