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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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ZB'Tejas

ZB'Tejas 594

Posted
Posted
Story for atleast the past year.  Market churns from sector to sector, one day its financials staying strong and tech taking a hit, next day its small cap growth while materials get hammered, etc.  Im not quick or lucky enough to play that game, so starting to lean away more and more from individual equities and playing the indexes and index-vols

Brutal few weeks indeed. Indexes steady or slightly down but my portfolio is down 15%.


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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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52-80

52-80 19274

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So yesterday the VIX gained something like +50%, amongst the top 5/10 highest overnight moves ever.  The VIX implies the 30-day forward volatility of the S&P index based on the traded options prices. 

image.thumb.png.a0e3d6c743464df5e14eddb6cd8e25f7.png

But the traded price of VIX futures -- a prediction of VIX at even later points in time -- didn't completely blow up (from black up to blue).  Curve is still in contango and saying that the relationship of month-to-month turbulence is still pretty "normal". 

There's also the fact that if the market is buying near-term insurance (long puts, a bearish bet) against a crash, it's less likely to actually happen.  If the market starts to crash, the seller of the puts (exposed to liability of payout in a crash) will buy into the market to stabilize/neutralize their exposure.  (Only when nobody expects a crash that it happens... the definition of a black swan).

 

My perspective on is that this SPX drop and VIX spike is temporary.  I expect the blue curve to be dragged down back to the black curve.  I shorted a bunch of the VIX-derived securites and bought into some SPY and other indexes.  If I'm wrong on the direction -- or simply the timing -- and the VIX stays elevated or goes even higher, its back to McDonalds fry station. 

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Very interested to see the futures open up today. I could see the market down another 2-3 percent or up 2-3 percent. The new variant seems likely everywhere, but initial indications are that it may be more mild?

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52-80

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40 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Very interested to see the futures open up today. I could see the market down another 2-3 percent or up 2-3 percent. The new variant seems likely everywhere, but initial indications are that it may be more mild?

I wouldn't peg too much to the action at global open.  Asia and European traders are generally pessimistic... then the regular trading hours open up in the US and lifts everything again.  At least on observation , without any hard numbers to back it up, this seems to be the case like 2/3rd of the time this past year.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5596

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7 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Did you buy the dip, asshole?

Marketwatch.com article on 60 stocks that are down 50% or more from their 2021 highs.
Which one(s) are we group-thinking-promoting that will rebound

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-60-stocks-including-draftkings-zillow-and-virgin-galactic-are-down-at-least-50-from-their-2021-highs-11638195062?mod=home-page

spoilered for anti-long-cat post

Spoiler

Exactly 60 of them were down at least 50% from their 2021 highs, through Nov. 26:

Company Decline from 2021 high Closing price – Nov. 26, 2021 2021 high Date of 2021 high Price change – 2021 through Nov. 26
StoneCo Ltd. Class A STNE -83% $16.34 $95.12 02/17/2021 -81%
Paysafe Ltd. PSFE -80% $3.89 $19.57 01/25/2021 -74%
Skillz Inc. Class A SKLZ -79% $9.82 $46.30 02/05/2021 -51%
Chegg Inc. CHGG -78% $24.99 $115.21 02/16/2021 -72%
C3.ai Inc. Class A AI -78% $38.38 $176.94 02/10/2021 -72%
GoHealth Inc. Class A GOCO -78% $3.56 $16.37 01/08/2021 -74%
Zillow Group Inc. Class A ZG -74% $55.07 $212.40 02/16/2021 -59%
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. SPCE -73% $16.73 $62.80 02/04/2021 -29%
Zillow Group Inc. Class C Z -73% $55.62 $208.11 02/16/2021 -57%
Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A PTON -73% $46.41 $171.09 01/14/2021 -69%
Lemonade Inc. LMND -72% $52.80 $188.30 01/12/2021 -57%
Vroom Inc. VRM -71% $15.54 $53.33 02/16/2021 -62%
QuantumScape Corp. Class A QS -69% $30.64 $97.89 12/31/2020 -64%
Discovery Inc. Class A DISCA -68% $24.72 $78.14 03/19/2021 -18%
ViacomCBS Inc. Class B VIAC -68% $32.61 $101.97 03/15/2021 -12%
Vimeo Inc. VMEO -68% $19.67 $61.00 05/18/2021 N/A
Fastly Inc. Class A FSLY -67% $40.53 $122.75 01/27/2021 -54%
CureVac N.V. CVAC -67% $44.18 $133.00 02/08/2021 -46%
Boston Beer Co. Class A SAM -66% $454.64 $1,349.98 04/23/2021 -54%
Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc. IOVA -66% $18.50 $54.21 01/15/2021 -60%
Signify Health Inc. Class A SGFY -66% $13.94 $40.79 02/19/2021 N/A
ViacomCBS Inc. Class A VIACA -65% $35.23 $101.60 03/15/2021 -7%
Beyond Meat Inc. BYND -65% $76.72 $221.00 01/26/2021 -39%
Teladoc Health Inc. TDOC -64% $109.61 $308.00 02/16/2021 -45%
Discovery Inc. Class C DISCK -64% $24.22 $66.70 03/22/2021 -8%
Rocket Cos. Inc. Class A RKT -64% $15.69 $43.00 03/02/2021 -22%
Penn National Gaming Inc. PENN -63% $52.77 $142.00 03/15/2021 -39%
New Fortress Energy Inc. Class A NFE -62% $25.16 $65.90 01/13/2021 -53%
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp. ADPT -61% $28.12 $71.25 01/19/2021 -52%
SAGE Therapeutics Inc. SAGE -60% $39.32 $98.39 01/15/2021 -55%
TripAdvisor Inc. TRIP -59% $26.75 $64.95 03/15/2021 -7%
GameStop Corp. Class A GME -59% $199.72 $483.00 01/28/2021 960%
NovoCure Ltd. NVCR -58% $97.01 $232.76 06/24/2021 -44%
Opendoor Technologies Inc. OPEN -58% $16.37 $39.24 02/11/2021 -28%
Nektar Therapeutics NKTR -58% $11.21 $26.75 02/17/2021 -34%
Altice USA Inc. Class A ATUS -58% $16.02 $38.19 05/10/2021 -58%
Sabre Corp. SABR -57% $7.31 $16.88 03/15/2021 -39%
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. RARE -56% $76.49 $175.00 02/10/2021 -45%
Wix.com Ltd. WIX -56% $159.55 $362.07 02/19/2021 -36%
Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc. IONS -55% $29.05 $64.37 01/26/2021 -49%
Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. SRPT -54% $79.62 $174.49 01/04/2021 -53%
Alteryx Inc. Class A AYX -54% $64.09 $140.36 02/09/2021 -47%
Gap Inc. GPS -54% $17.33 $37.63 05/18/2021 -14%
Amedisys Inc. AMED -54% $150.13 $325.12 01/25/2021 -49%
Oak Street Health Inc. OSH -54% $30.77 $66.31 02/12/2021 -50%
Palantir Technologies Inc. Class A PLTR -53% $21.03 $45.00 01/27/2021 -11%
Sunrun Inc. RUN -53% $47.41 $100.93 01/12/2021 -32%
LegalZoom.com Inc. LZ -53% $19.24 $40.94 07/02/2021 N/A
CommScope Holding Co. Inc. COMM -52% $10.55 $22.18 07/01/2021 -21%
Pinterest Inc. Class A PINS -52% $42.80 $89.90 02/16/2021 -35%
Roku Inc. Class A ROKU -52% $235.16 $490.76 07/27/2021 -29%
Agilon health Inc. AGL -52% $21.59 $44.83 06/18/2021 N/A
Nordstrom Inc. JWN -52% $22.41 $46.45 03/15/2021 -28%
DraftKings Inc. Class A DKNG -52% $36.04 $74.38 03/22/2021 -23%
Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A ZM -51% $220.21 $451.77 02/16/2021 -35%
TuSimple Holdings Inc. Class A TSP -51% $38.92 $79.84 06/30/2021 N/A
Duck Creek Technologies Inc. DCT -51% $28.98 $59.40 02/10/2021 -33%
RingCentral Inc. Class A RNG -50% $224.54 $449.00 02/16/2021 -41%
Anaplan Inc. PLAN -50% $43.12 $86.17 02/16/2021 -40%
Playtika Holding Corp. PLTK -50% $18.18 $36.06 01/15/2021 N/A
Source: FactSet

 

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52-80

52-80 19274

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S&P and Russell futures dumped again, but on low volume, so decent chance of recovering in US trading session.  Nasdaq is holding on tight.  Im back to shorting VIX futures -- most of which was closed yesterday.  Crude oil dipped again, which maybe can be assigned to the omicron narrative. 

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11684

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12 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Christmas is cancelled motherfuckers. Bags of coal for everybody. 

Okay, pork belly prices have been dropping all morning, which means that everybody is waiting for it to hit rock bottom, so they can buy low. Which means that the people who own the pork belly contracts are saying, "Hey, we're losing all our damn money, and Christmas is around the corner, and I ain't gonna have no money to buy my son the G.I. Joe with the kung-fu grip! And my wife ain't gonna f... my wife ain't gonna make love to me if I got no money!" So they're panicking right now, they're screaming "SELL! SELL!" to get out before the price keeps dropping. They're panicking out there right now, I can feel it.

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ZB'Tejas

ZB'Tejas 594

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26 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

1st official case of Omicron in the States.  Market sells off immediately as if it's surprised it's here.  Good God people. 

 

In California, vaxxed and basically asymptomatic.  

 

I want to rewrite the lyrics to Kodachrome for this fucking bullshit.  

BTFD I guess 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5596

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40 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

1st official case of Omicron in the States.  Market sells off immediately as if it's surprised it's here.  Good God people. 

 

In California, vaxxed and basically asymptomatic.  

 

I want to rewrite the lyrics to Kodachrome for this fucking bullshit.  

buy the dip! buy the dip!
BUY THE DIP!

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