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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Redneck Mutha

Redneck Mutha 7,956

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Well as long as we're coming clean (that's what she said), about 33% SP500, 20% sector funds (med, comm, software, staples, etc.), 10% NASDAQ, 5% company ESPP and stonks (thanks ALPP!).  ~30% bonds and cash.

In early 50s.  After 1/1, will probably move a good portion of SP500 to 60/40 funds (Fidelity Balanced, Fidelity Puritan, etc).  Ride some steady, low risk gains until retirement.

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TxTower

TxTower 651

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Posted
Was taking with my FIL while they were over for Christmas. I learned he is very conservative on his investments and spooks easily. He pulled money out way too often over the last 20-30 years.  He probably also tried to sled manage a little too much. I feel bad. If he’d just let shit ride in 88(?), late 90s, 08, 18, etc, he probably would have retired a few years ago. 

That’s because you’re FIL is old school and still believes in “moral hazard” which the Fed has removed from markets. Nowadays you just buy the dips with the implicit assurance that the Fed will bail you out if anything goes south.


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Reynolds Woodcock

Reynolds Woodcock 4,740

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Posted (edited)
On 12/28/2021 at 10:05 AM, TwiceHorn said:

Yeah, following yours and the conventional advice, I just dumped it in.  Have seen a nice return already.  It is somewhat fleeting and there will be a correction, eventually.

But, through watching my own accounts, and those of my parents in retirement, just staying in and weathering the "storms" works out for the best.

I've done this dance every year during end of year bonus season since I graduated from law school 7 years ago. Every year I hesitate a bit thinking I'm buying in at the peak, and every year I bite the bullet and dump it in nevertheless. And it just keeps on going up.  I buy VOO mostly. 

Edited by Reynolds Woodcock
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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2,221

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13 hours ago, TxTower said:


That’s because you’re FIL is old school and still believes in “moral hazard” which the Fed has removed from markets. Nowadays you just buy the dips with the implicit assurance that the Fed will bail you out if anything goes south.


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We definitely come from different periods. In my life (born in 82), while things may get bad in the short term, they always bounce back. So unless I’m banking on the total dissolution of the US, I should just buy and ride it up. 
 

He however grew up and started work during a period where the stock market dropped for about 20 years. I’m sure that altered his perception and behaviors quite differently. 
 

And as far as the gov is concerned, they have been pushing 401k for retirement so long, and that’s where most people’s limited eggs are, that if they let the market drop too much for an extended period of time, there would be a pretty big financial crisis for the older generation that would impact everyone. 

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14,596

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40 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

My 401k beat all but the top 3 on that list this year.

Same with the S&P 500.  It was up 28%.  This is the prime example of why the hedge fund industry is dying.  You can park a giant pile of money in an index fund, get better returns and a dividend, have more liquidity, and a fraction of the risk.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19,190

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1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Same with the S&P 500.  It was up 28%.  This is the prime example of why the hedge fund industry is dying.  You can park a giant pile of money in an index fund, get better returns and a dividend, have more liquidity, and a fraction of the risk.

Yeah, the vast majority of my 401k is in an S&P 500 index fund.  My high-risk portion is in a NASDAQ index fund. 

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Not a cat

Not a cat 5,656

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The best thing that ever happened to me was in 2005 going to work for a regulated financial firm that made it a pain in the ass to own individual stocks.  Nothing but stale boring low cost index funds for me since then and it's done wonders for both my psyche and balance sheet.  

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SaucyJack

SaucyJack 3,488

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10 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Same with the S&P 500.  It was up 28%.  This is the prime example of why the hedge fund industry is dying.  You can park a giant pile of money in an index fund, get better returns and a dividend, have more liquidity, and a fraction of the risk.

 

8 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Yeah, the vast majority of my 401k is in an S&P 500 index fund.  My high-risk portion is in a NASDAQ index fund. 

 

4 hours ago, Not a cat said:

The best thing that ever happened to me was in 2005 going to work for a regulated financial firm that made it a pain in the ass to own individual stocks.  Nothing but stale boring low cost index funds for me since then and it's done wonders for both my psyche and balance sheet.  

 

16 minutes ago, elfenix said:

today's urban word of the day:

image.png.9276c2f1bdd45c164bee5cf108bd7b8b.png

One of these is not like the others.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

markets are green for today, so i check my vanguard account.  i'm fucking incredible.  19 holdings in the red, 4 green.

S&P/Nasdaq are red (Nasdaq is deep red). Dow is up. 

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CooterBrown

CooterBrown 18,010

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Posted
markets are green for today, so i check my vanguard account.  i'm fucking incredible.  19 holdings in the red, 4 green.

My trend for the past few months has been that my investments close at the opposite of what they do during the day. They’re all green right now, so they will all close in the red at 3:30. It makes no sense but it’s been like clockwork.
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Blotto

Blotto 23,501

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56 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I totally thought the all aluminum F-150 was going to be a game changing cash machine.  LOL

I think the electric F-150 will actually do very well. It looks like a truck vs what TSLA and to a lesser extent Rivian are rolling out. The Rivian isnt terrible, but that front end looks like it was designed for preteen girls who would find it cute.

 

 

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52-80

52-80 19,155

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38 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I think the electric F-150 will actually do very well. It looks like a truck vs what TSLA and to a lesser extent Rivian are rolling out. The Rivian isnt terrible, but that front end looks like it was designed for preteen girls who would find it cute.

 

 

The Rivian looks like a very well-designed truck functionally optimized for most people who buy trucks though — the ones who haul their family around instead of working tools or lumber. 
 

From markets point of view they’ll demonstrate what Elon mentioned: making a cool concept is easy; high volume production is hard. 
 

They’ve delivered some trucks to customer, but far from the pace they planned, and the ones that are out are showing various software errors and bugs

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Blotto

Blotto 23,501

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15 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

The Rivian looks like a very well-designed truck functionally optimized for most people who buy trucks though — the ones who haul their family around instead of working tools or lumber. 
 

From markets point of view they’ll demonstrate what Elon mentioned: making a cool concept is easy; high volume production is hard. 
 

They’ve delivered some trucks to customer, but far from the pace they planned, and the ones that are out are showing various software errors and bugs

I don't doubt it. It took TSLA a long time to figure out how to do it and they had the entire market for EV's to themselves so people just waited a couple of years for their cars. Rivian will be trying to launch and get into volume production with considerably more market competition, and competition that knows how to manufacture at scale. TSLA almost went bankrupt in the process several times, I suspect Rivian will flirt with that as well, and ultimately be acquired. But not before their market cap is about 10-20% of what it is today. 

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52-80

52-80 19,155

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16 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I don't doubt it. It took TSLA a long time to figure out how to do it and they had the entire market for EV's to themselves so people just waited a couple of years for their cars. Rivian will be trying to launch and get into volume production with considerably more market competition, and competition that knows how to manufacture at scale. TSLA almost went bankrupt in the process several times, I suspect Rivian will flirt with that as well, and ultimately be acquired. But not before their market cap is about 10-20% of what it is today. 

agreed.  same thing for lucid also. riding on the tsla hype but will turn out to be hot air

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,548

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43 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

and then there's Nikola which  will have fleeced billions out of retail investors before they finally go under without delivering a single vehicle.

Nikola, Lordstown, Canoo, Fisker, Livewire (Harley Davidson E-motorcycle), Lucid, Rivian, NIo, etc, etc, etc....
All chasing the Tesla story and investors, with huge valuations and little to nothing in vehicle deliveries
And that doesn't include Waymo, Uber, Apple and others who are looking to get into the market
Then there are others that I've never heard of - Arrival, APTIV, Zoox, Hyzon, Volta, WeaveGrid, Revel, and more (from a article here https://builtin.com/transportation-technology/electric-car-companies)

This sure has the feel of 1999/2000 where there was a rush to put companies into the "internet marketplace"; like pets.com, webvan.com, etoys.com, flooz.com, ....

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Blotto

Blotto 23,501

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1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Well that was not fun. 

I wont shit right for a week. My tech heavy gamble portfolio get wrecked. The sad thing is that I noticed Vix below 16 again, so yesterday afternoon I bought some SPY 478 straddles expiring 1/7. Paid $4.10 for each contract and sold them early afternoon today for ~$6.00 when I thought the worst of it was over. They closed over $9.00. I had the sellers remorse.

The calls to get back up to 478 by this Friday are now dirt fucking cheap ($0.14), so I picked up a handful now in case Jpow wants to dig out some of his greatest hits. If not, whats a few hundy more. 

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