Markets still falling like whoa

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

13 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Pton is just looking to be snapped up by a big sports player to absorb the SGA costs. 

Dick's Sporting Goods is the obvious choice.

Dick-Ton.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

11 hours ago, Sam Lin said:

Peloton is the only item in your list that is not outwardly visible.

Instagram and Facebook shots of people doing their Pelonton thing would disagree.

[bernorange 8359]

She is living in a virtual world

And she is a virtual girl

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

On 12/28/2021 at 7:03 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

I plan to buy all your margin calls by June. February

[Wally Fairway 5543]

I haven't had any SPY puts in almost a year, and cashed out my last calls over a month ago. But I decided to look at puts pricing and here is what the pricing tells me 

6/30 expiry $10 puts are $380 strike ($63 below mkt); and $10 calls are $471 strike ($28 above market) 

Maybe I should just sell covered calls, as this pricing tells me what the money says)

I will let you know which way I go, if at all. And then you can decide to go the other way, because the market hates me.

FWIW those last calls that I closed out in December were $475 strikes that bought in October and I made a 60% profit

[52-80 19150]

this year so far

 

[Wally Fairway 5543]

52 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I haven't had any SPY puts in almost a year, and cashed out my last calls over a month ago. But I decided to look at puts pricing and here is what the pricing tells me 

6/30 expiry $10 puts are $380 strike ($63 below mkt); and $10 calls are $471 strike ($28 above market) 

Maybe I should just sell covered calls, as this pricing tells me what the money says)

I will let you know which way I go, if at all. And then you can decide to go the other way, because the market hates me.

FWIW those last calls that I closed out in December were $475 strikes that bought in October and I made a 60% profit

Market correction is over! 

Wally sold about 15% of his SPY, and sold calls covered by 50% of his remaining shares.

[Aqua Buddha 14586]

16 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Pton is just looking to be snapped up by a big sports player to absorb the SGA costs. 

They have incredible brand equity, a cash rich target demo, and unmatched stickiness/satisfaction. Everyone who has one *loves* it. 

I dont buy the narrative that it was a pandemic play and thats why its now sizzled out. People riding this wasnt spandex bikers who can go outside again. This was for mommies replacing their spin class and theyre not going back to that. 

Good value buy right now at 2x sales. 
 

Yeah, they might have the best demographic in all of consumer goods.  The idea that their customers couldn't afford one until Trump bucks came along is a misreading of their demo.  It's mostly upper middle class and above women.  

At this point Apple should buy them.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

4 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Market correction is over! 

Wally sold about 15% of his SPY, and sold calls covered by 50% of his remaining shares.

Thank you for your service.

[Guest]

53 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Yeah, they might have the best demographic in all of consumer goods.  The idea that their customers couldn't afford one until Trump bucks came along is a misreading of their demo.  It's mostly upper middle class and above women.  

At this point Apple should buy them.

So about two months ago I hear the doorbell ring. Open it up and it's a girl standing there with a Peloton box. She stares are me. I stare at her, confused.

"Can we come in?"
"Uh, I didn't order anything."
"You didn't order a Peloton?"
"No."
"Ok, let me go check the address." 

It was then that I learned my middle-of-the-road 1980s Austin neighborhood had become rich. 

Edited January 21, 2022 by FirstTimeCaller

[Sbbruin 21840]

16 hours ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

I like this post in that thread:

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

7 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So about two months ago I hear the doorbell ring. Open it up and it's a girl standing there with a Peloton box. She stares are me. I stare at her, confused.

"Can we come in?"
"Uh, I didn't order anything."
"You didn't order a Peloton?"
"No."
"Ok, let me go check the address." 

It was then that I learned my middle-of-the-road 1980s Austin neighborhood had become rich. 

Or, perhaps, this is Peloton's new marketing strategy. Randomly deliver bikes to people in hopes that they want it. Genius strategy. 

[Guest]

Amazon down 15% in a month. 

[Blotto 23497]

42 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Or, perhaps, this is Peloton's new marketing strategy. Randomly deliver bikes to people in hopes that they want it. Genius strategy. 

Or they could go this direction

 

[Wally Fairway 5543]

4 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Thank you for your service.

The real bottom comes when I, again, start buying puts. Selling cake only slightly lessens the pain on the downside. And then only if I time it right, which is very unlikely. Because my past performance is a pretty good bet going forward.

[Anastasis 23469]

[Wally Fairway 5543]

4 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Thank you for your service

 encabeza a mis amigos 

pulled the trigger on those puts, right at the close 

only things green today, puts I bought, calls I sold, and ABML

 

 

[Guest]

I hated that money anyway. 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

28 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I hated that money anyway. 

Just imagine the tax writeoffs!

[Guest]

So anyone want to throw out bullshit conjecture about what happens? 

I'll start --

I see this as a correction/smaller bear market that's been awhile coming, but nothing crazy. I think it's just a reaction to the Fed starting to raise rates and that values are stretched. Seems like the consumer is still strong, demand is still strong, low unemployment etc. Inflation is an issue, but then again, demand for EVERYTHING is through the roof. I think that (inflation) quiets down but still higher than we're used to (e.g. 4-5% instead of 1-2%). Meanwhile, so much of the market froth beneath the surface has already take a hard hit that I think some of those names may catch some interest.

We aren't done with it yet, but I also don't see 2008 happening again.

 

Edited January 21, 2022 by FirstTimeCaller

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

2 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So anyone want to throw out bullshit conjecture about what happens? 

[washparkhorn 9939]

The end of the Fed’s $120 billion a month subsidy to the markets and promise to raise rates rapidly this year (all to combat inflation) is drying up excess liquidity for Tech and crypto. 
 

The Fed is using its inflation tools.  

[washparkhorn 9939]

The markets are falling because the Fed is no longer pumping $120 billion a month into markets and will raise rates this year - in order to combat inflation.  The Fed has turned hawkish and that is deflating some bubbles. 
 

TLDR:  Brrrt has silenced. 

Edited January 22, 2022 by washparkhorn

[TonyTexas 10510]

2 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

The end of the Fed’s $120 billion a month subsidy to the markets and promise to raise rates rapidly this year (all to combat inflation) is drying up excess liquidity for Tech and crypto. 
 

The Fed is using its inflation tools.  

 

12 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

The markets are falling because the Fed is no longer pumping $120 billion a month into markets and will raise rates this year - in order to combat inflation.  The Fed has turned hawkish and that is deflating some bubbles. 
 

TLDR:  Brrrt has silenced. 

The rare double post that really isn’t. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

16 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

The Fed is using its inflation tools.  

Because of deflationary headwinds.

[bernorange 8359]

13 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

... the Fed is no longer pumping $120 billion a month into markets ...

Aren't they though?  Their balance sheet continues to grow in spite of their communications.

$8.917T as of latest report 1/20.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/

 

[EuroHorn 3260]

The S&P has averaged over 15% returns over the last three years.  Well above the typical historical average.  It’s going to correct 

[52-80 19150]

Remember that one time your aunts and uncles put a whole lot of money into stocks because the US central banks dropped their federal funds rate?

 

me neither

[washparkhorn 9939]

16 hours ago, bernorange said:

Aren't they though?  Their balance sheet continues to grow in spite of their communications.

$8.917T as of latest report 1/20.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/

 

The Covid rescue subsidies est. March 2020 are dwindling.
 

The rest of the giveaway programs from the Fed to the markets persist from pre-Covid days. 

[washparkhorn 9939]

16 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Because of deflationary headwinds.

Entropy. 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

20 hours ago, EuroHorn said:

The S&P has averaged over 15% returns over the last three years.  Well above the typical historical average.  It’s going to correct 

Nah. Stocks only go up. 

[CooterBrown 18005]

The S&P has averaged over 15% returns over the last three years.  Well above the typical historical average.  It’s going to correct 

Fidelity’s SP500 fund, FXAIX, has a 10 year average of over 16% and a lifetime of over 11%.

You may be thinking of a total stock market fund that’s around 7% lifetime but the SP500 index is significantly better over the long term.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

[Snake Diggity 4621]

My amateur prediction is the next 6 months will be rough followed by 18 months of unprecedented prosperity.  Fed/errbody underestimating what % of price increases is due to supply issues rather than money supply.  This will unwind over the course of the spring/summer.  By fall we will see prices on consumer goods start to come down or at least stabilize.  Mid term elections will likely ensure gridlock which is always good for markets.  There are still major risks (Ukraine/Russia, US political instability, to a lesser degree COVID) but I think 2023 is going to be an all-timer.

[ZB'Tejas 593]

3 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

My amateur prediction is the next 6 months will be rough followed by 18 months of unprecedented prosperity.  Fed/errbody underestimating what % of price increases is due to supply issues rather than money supply.  This will unwind over the course of the spring/summer.  By fall we will see prices on consumer goods start to come down or at least stabilize.  Mid term elections will likely ensure gridlock which is always good for markets.  There are still major risks (Ukraine/Russia, US political instability, to a lesser degree COVID) but I think 2023 is going to be an all-timer.

I sure hope so. My portfolio is so beaten down over the last few months. I need "unprecedented prosperity" just to get back to where I was earlier last year.

[Trey3216 15346]

13 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

My amateur prediction is the next 6 months will be rough followed by 18 months of unprecedented prosperity.  Fed/errbody underestimating what % of price increases is due to supply issues rather than money supply.  This will unwind over the course of the spring/summer.  By fall we will see prices on consumer goods start to come down or at least stabilize.  Mid term elections will likely ensure gridlock which is always good for markets.  There are still major risks (Ukraine/Russia, US political instability, to a lesser degree COVID) but I think 2023 is going to be an all-timer.

My biggest fear is that as some things start to unwind, we're gonna find out just how ugly it is when the entire market is propped up by about 6 stocks.  The market hasn't been healthy in over a year, outside of the Atlas-cap names (yes, I just kind of created a new class of market cap).  The Hi-Low ratio has been dropping off a cliff, which is generally a sign that the market is not healthy at all.  IF those big names truly pull back, we're in for a winter/summer/winter of discontent in the markets.  

[Blotto 23497]

On 1/23/2022 at 9:02 AM, CooterBrown said:

Fidelity’s SP500 fund, FXAIX, has a 10 year average of over 16% and a lifetime of over 11%.

You may be thinking of a total stock market fund that’s around 7% lifetime but the SP500 index is significantly better over the long term.

So the fund has been returning 1.5X over historical averages over a 10 year period, of which the last three it was returning 20% during a pandemic. I'm not sure that contradicts Eurohorns point to which you were responding. A correction was well over due and probably has a bit more to go. 

[Aqua Buddha 14586]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

My amateur prediction is the next 6 months will be rough followed by 18 months of unprecedented prosperity.  Fed/errbody underestimating what % of price increases is due to supply issues rather than money supply.  This will unwind over the course of the spring/summer.  By fall we will see prices on consumer goods start to come down or at least stabilize.  Mid term elections will likely ensure gridlock which is always good for markets.  There are still major risks (Ukraine/Russia, US political instability, to a lesser degree COVID) but I think 2023 is going to be an all-timer.

As someone in the consumer goods industry, this is exactly what is happening and what will unfold.  Monetary policy has a wildly overrated effect on prices.  Once the supply part of the equation gets ironed out, you'll see prices stabilize if not come down.

[Paper_jam 831]

I still don't understand why the markets did so well over the pandemic when everything was obviously shitty and I don't understand why they are in a tailspin now. But I'm just trying to get myself in a position for retirement soon, and this isn't helping. In the immortal words of Oscar Rogers,

 

 

[Sbbruin 21840]

I don't care for this at all.

[52-80 19150]

 

[52-80 19150]

remember when gold/crypto/oil/bonds/materials/value stocks were a hedge against the equity market?

 

 

[Immaculate Vibes 114]

13 minutes ago, Paper_jam said:

I still don't understand why the markets did so well over the pandemic when everything was obviously shitty and I don't understand why they are in a tailspin now. But I'm just trying to get myself in a position for retirement soon, and this isn't helping. In the immortal words of Oscar Rogers,

 

 

Liquidity is coming out. That’s it. 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

SAVE US JPOW

[Anastasis 23469]

made the mistake of logging in to my schwab account.  Ouch. 

[OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys 2069]

i am officially in the red lifetime.  just 2 years, but still.

[Sbbruin 21840]

11 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

made the mistake of logging in to my schwab account.  Ouch. 

Worst single day I've ever had.

[Blotto 23497]

12 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

remember when gold/crypto/oil/bonds/materials/value stocks were a hedge against the equity market?

I dont think anybody knows what the fuck crypto is and how it relates to other asset classes because its too damn new. But if there was ever an asset class in my lifetime that was in a hyper speculative bubble, its crypto. The vast majority of crypto transactions are not for any other purpose than buying or selling for speculative gain. Thats great when the trend is up, but painful when the trend reverses. As of January, there were over 8000 crypto currencies plus now you have all of the NFT bullshit. Blockchain and crypto technologies will undoubtedly play a fundamental role in our lives in the future, but most markets that appreciate 10K% in a couple of years or less are likely not going to continue that performance.

BTC lost 85% after its rise in  2017, the equivalent fall against this years peak would be ~$10K. Am I predicting it falls to $10K? Fuck if I know, but it wouldnt shock me. Hell it could fall to $1K and it wouldnt surprise me. It fell 92% in 2011, 84% leading up to 2015, 85% in 2018, and it remains to be determined how far in this correction. BTC (not blockchain) is only as strong as the confidence in BTC. 

[MAUFRAIS 6623]

If this gets rid of the stupid bitcoin billboards in Austin it is worth it.

[Mo Horn 8832]

I'm still 4 years away from retirement, so still in for the long haul, but it is crazy to see the drop in my account. History tells us things will recover fairly quickly. So I'm just channeling the Backstreet Boys right now and singing Buy, Buy, Buy.