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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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6 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I’m not so certain.  Barring any crazy Black Swan events where the govt decides to inject 1/3 of a year’s GDP into the market which, given velocity of money, basically creates 1.5 years worth of addt’l GDP resulting in a blowoff market top, we’re going to retract to pre-Covid levels of everything.  That means lots of people are gonna be gone 

Job opening are outpacing unemployed 11.5 million to 6 million -- largest on record. There are a lot of unfilled jobs that would be the first to go.

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Eastwood
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That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

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Eastwood
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I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
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8 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Job opening are outpacing unemployed 11.5 million to 6 million -- largest on record. There are a lot of unfilled jobs that would be the first to go.

True, but a lot of those job openings are window dressing.   A lot of places aren’t going to hire people at inflated wages to sell things that they don’t have due to supply constraints 

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14524

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35 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

True, but a lot of those job openings are window dressing.   A lot of places aren’t going to hire people at inflated wages to sell things that they don’t have due to supply constraints 

There is a worker shortage at almost every level in every industry.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5525

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57 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

There is a worker shortage at almost every level in every industry.

Economic slowdown, hiring freezes and layoffs will take care of that workers shortage; and relieve inflationary pressures on wages.
Recession is going to be a like hitting the reset button on the economy, or like spinning a roulette wheel where you might be a winner or you most likely will not.

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26437

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11 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

There is a worker shortage at almost every level in every industry.

First time?

Wait until all those "stay at home moms/dads" that determined "we can get by on one income" continue to see their cost rise 8% per month.  And then the government's response will be to pay out more in unemployment (and need to turn on the printers to pay it).

 

These are not natural conditions we are in. This is a government created mess and they'll be the last to pay the piper. 

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Royalfan5

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30 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

First time?

Wait until all those "stay at home moms/dads" that determined "we can get by on one income" continue to see their cost rise 8% per month.  And then the government's response will be to pay out more in unemployment (and need to turn on the printers to pay it).

 

These are not natural conditions we are in. This is a government created mess and they'll be the last to pay the piper. 

You say that like there is child care to be had. 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

Posted
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5 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

First time?

Wait until all those "stay at home moms/dads" that determined "we can get by on one income" continue to see their cost rise 8% per month.  And then the government's response will be to pay out more in unemployment (and need to turn on the printers to pay it).

 

These are not natural conditions we are in. This is a government created mess and they'll be the last to pay the piper. 

Nope.  % of working age people taking care of House/Family is lower than it was in 2015.  Change in workforce is age related.  People retired early.  They’re not coming back.  Low unemployment is here to stay.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/2022/feb/why-workers-staying-out-us-labor-force

Edited by Snake Diggity
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Snake Diggity

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5 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Because people aren't getting married / having families until much later in life.

Haha no.  The % of working age people not in the labor force who are staying at home went from just under 15% to peak just under 16% during the pandemic, it has since declined and is back under 15%.  The % of working age people not in the labor force who are retired went from ~50.5% before the pandemic down to a bottom of ~49.5%, then started climbing again last year and it is up to ~51.5%.
 

The unemployment situation is going to be dominated by our demographics.  The boomers are reaching retirement and there aren’t enough workers to replace them.  Barring massive unexpected changes in immigration or technology, the US is going to continue to face a worker shortage for at least the next 20 years.

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PilotsError

PilotsError 2283

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37 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Nope.  % of working age people taking care of House/Family is lower than it was in 2015.  Change in workforce is age related.  People retired early.  They’re not coming back.  Low unemployment is here to stay.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/2022/feb/why-workers-staying-out-us-labor-force

 

JFC.  You're actually serious. 

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Muny_Tex

Muny_Tex 292

Posted
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I noticed on Monday that Southwest Airlines has quietly removed *all* of their job postings; everything from corporate HQ, to maintenance, to airport ops…even pilots is now zero’d out.

This is just weeks after they said frontline hiring was imperative to sustain their future schedules, but I guess the 30% YoY increase in fares wiped out customer demand faster than expected.

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Vegas64

Vegas64 665

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14 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Amazon is always hiring because of their shitty turnover rates.

Had a buddy just start and has a nearly $500k OTE after the comp refresh they did to increase pay at most positions a few months ago. I could put up with crappy amazon culture for that, probably.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
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15 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

I'd think the fed decision is going to dominate today but can't figure out if 75 points will be good because we're finally doing something to fight inflation or bad because it's 75 bps.  

We get an Atlanta FED GDPNow update today as well.  

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Blotto

Blotto 23434

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15 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

I'd think the fed decision is going to dominate today but can't figure out if 75 points will be good because we're finally doing something to fight inflation or bad because it's 75 bps.  

Their forward looking comments regarding inflation, future rate hikes and tapering will probably have a lot to do with the afternoon reaction. Whatever they say, it will probably be worse a month from now. 

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Cheeseweasel

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26 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Their forward looking comments regarding inflation, future rate hikes and tapering will probably have a lot to do with the afternoon reaction. Whatever they say, it will probably be worse a month from now. 

Look forward to a mixture of "this is fine / Putin's fault / Transitory" song and dance bullshit.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5525

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1 hour ago, Not a cat said:

I'd think the fed decision is going to dominate today but can't figure out if 75 points will be good because we're finally doing something to fight inflation or bad because it's 75 bps.  

Yup - I'm thinking there is an opportunity in the options market (SPY) but I have no idea what is priced in/expected at this point. 
Therefore I''m not going short term, and will likely buy 2-3 week maturity to be safe and to pay more for the premium - if I pull that trigger at all.

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bullzak

bullzak 412

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Not a cat said:

I'd think the fed decision is going to dominate today but can't figure out if 75 points will be good because we're finally doing something to fight inflation or bad because it's 75 bps.  

Probably good. 

Then bad. 

If they chicken out and only do 50 look out. Dont think that happens though with other Fed people jawboning 75 all week. 

Edited by bullzak
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