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Posted

Payrolls +372,000.

At what point does the narrative change to "you know what, the economy isn't that bad."? Adding nearly 400K jobs and unemployment at 3.6%

Inflation sucks. Covid has caused all sorts of disruption. Being in a rising rate environment is new for everyone. But things are humming along despite those headwinds. Could a recession come? Absolutely... there's always one around the corner. But I think the general consensus is that the economy is in the tank. I don't think that's true.

Posted

I don’t think that’s the consensus at all (that the economy is bad).  I think there is a well justified fear that inflation may cause an overreaction in interest rates and tightening, but I’ve not seen anyone serious claim we’re in anything but a technical recession (output shrinking due to gdp).  I do think home buying will be the first indicator of a real slowdown.  If we see big drops in home prices then I’ll be worried.

Posted
  On 7/8/2022 at 12:50 PM, FirstTimeCaller said:

Payrolls +372,000.

At what point does the narrative change to "you know what, the economy isn't that bad."? Adding nearly 400K jobs and unemployment at 3.6%

Inflation sucks. Covid has caused all sorts of disruption. Being in a rising rate environment is new for everyone. But things are humming along despite those headwinds. Could a recession come? Absolutely... there's always one around the corner. But I think the general consensus is that the economy is in the tank. I don't think that's true.

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I agree. However, if everything is really ok, how will Cramer grift? 

Posted
  On 7/8/2022 at 1:11 PM, Hefeweizen said:

I don’t think that’s the consensus at all (that the economy is bad).  I think there is a well justified fear that inflation may cause an overreaction in interest rates and tightening, but I’ve not seen anyone serious claim we’re in anything but a technical recession (output shrinking due to gdp).  I do think home buying will be the first indicator of a real slowdown.  If we see big drops in home prices then I’ll be worried.

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  On 7/8/2022 at 1:17 PM, Cheeseweasel said:

I agree. However, if everything is really ok, how will Cramer grift? 

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Cramer and JPow will push the fear factor until Fed rates are 4.5% and it really does kill the economy; because the Fed drives full speed ahead all the while looking out the rear window

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Posted
  On 7/8/2022 at 1:11 PM, Hefeweizen said:

I don’t think that’s the consensus at all (that the economy is bad).

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Uhh, consumer sentiment and state of the economy type questions are polling at or below GFC levels. This, despite 3.6% unemployment and the vast majority of  respondents rating their personal financial situation as positive. Basically, a large segment of the public has decided that "recession" means "high gas prices" and "depression" means "high gas prices and a seller's housing market."

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Posted
  On 7/8/2022 at 12:50 PM, FirstTimeCaller said:

Payrolls +372,000.

At what point does the narrative change to "you know what, the economy isn't that bad."? Adding nearly 400K jobs and unemployment at 3.6%

Inflation sucks. Covid has caused all sorts of disruption. Being in a rising rate environment is new for everyone. But things are humming along despite those headwinds. Could a recession come? Absolutely... there's always one around the corner. But I think the general consensus is that the economy is in the tank. I don't think that's true.

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I think what's missing here is the quality of those jobs being added to payroll. If those jobs are at $15/hr, they're paying maybe $2500/mo ($30k/yr) before taxes. That's not exactly going to increase that person's overall economic contributions, especially when you consider that the average rent rate in the US is around $1300/mo (and median around $2000). 

The economic pie ain't pretty if you're below the middle of the curve. 

  On 7/8/2022 at 2:19 PM, Storm the Field said:

the vast majority of  respondents rating their personal financial situation as positive

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I'd similarly be curious to see the economic makeup of their respondents, but this makes sense. If 30% of the country is generationally stuck trying to keep their heads above water, then the vast majority of respondents would still be in a positive financial situation

Posted

Recession or not is going to be argued ad-Infinium even after the we post 2 quarters of GDP contraction in a couple weeks. 

It's all relative.  We are leaving a time when demand for everything was completely unhinged and supply was fucked.  Not only did every consumer have "free" money to spend, every company from A to Z was provided PILES of money.  PPP, ERC, CARES support......(I am probably missing stuff too)

 

My guess.  We overshoot on tightening and post relatively shitty numbers into Q2 of 23, Fed freaks the fuck out and lowers rates and resumes QE.

 

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Posted
  On 7/8/2022 at 3:14 PM, Incredulity said:

it's already happening.  scroll around on zillow.  price cuts are very common, especially at the high end. 

 

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Yes, the market has cooled. But a significant downturn isn't happening without more inventory. Trust me, I sell software and also finished in the top 20 percent of my high school class. 

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Posted
  On 7/8/2022 at 3:11 PM, Incredulity said:

My guess.  We overshoot on tightening and post relatively shitty numbers into Q2 of 23, Fed freaks the fuck out and lowers rates and resumes QE.

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The FED is a woman packing for a trip she just found out about. They are throwing a bunch of shit in there and hoping they'll need it but in reality are just adding additional weight to the luggage we're going to have to carry around 3 airports and hotel lobbies. 

Posted
  On 7/8/2022 at 3:17 PM, StruggleBus said:

Yes, the market has cooled. But a significant downturn isn't happening without more inventory. Trust me, I sell software and also finished in the top 20 percent of my high school class. 

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I don't get that reference and it makes me sad.

 

 

Guys is always talking his book but he's no dummy. Thread is relevant.  Real GDP may decline a bit given inflation numbers but nominally we are going through the roof.  Debt to GDP going to be close to 100% by 9/30, mainly given deficit spending is below last year (no stimmy) and nominal growth.  We measure everything in Real (https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and-corporate-profits-revised-first)  however nominal is continuing to increase which is part of Ackman's point (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP)

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Posted

These quarterly "buy/sell" notes from our investment advisor are always interesting:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Posted
  On 7/8/2022 at 4:15 PM, babysdaddy said:

I don't get that reference and it makes me sad.

 

 

Guys is always talking his book but he's no dummy. Thread is relevant.  Real GDP may decline a bit given inflation numbers but nominally we are going through the roof.  Debt to GDP going to be close to 100% by 9/30, mainly given deficit spending is below last year (no stimmy) and nominal growth.  We measure everything in Real (https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and-corporate-profits-revised-first)  however nominal is continuing to increase which is part of Ackman's point (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP)

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Nominal doesn't mean shit. Nominally, UT is the best FB program in all the land.  But really....

 

For Fuck's sake, If a low income earner who drives 30 minutes to work everyday had his/her wages increased 50% over the last year, nearly all their wage increases have been eaten up by the increase in fuel costs to get to and from work.  Then factor in food/rent/utilities/etc costs and the're making less money than they did before.  Nominal measurements are for fucktards like Ackman.  Hell, Ackman was probably technically correct about Herbalife.  How do you think he feels about that trade.   Dumbass rode Valeant Pharma from $200 to 8 and finally sold ( I bought 10k shares at 8 and sold that bitch at 20, just cuz Ackman was out).   Fuck that stupid fucker. 

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Posted
  On 7/8/2022 at 4:15 PM, babysdaddy said:

I don't get that reference and it makes me sad.

 

 

Guys is always talking his book but he's no dummy. Thread is relevant.  Real GDP may decline a bit given inflation numbers but nominally we are going through the roof.  Debt to GDP going to be close to 100% by 9/30, mainly given deficit spending is below last year (no stimmy) and nominal growth.  We measure everything in Real (https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and-corporate-profits-revised-first)  however nominal is continuing to increase which is part of Ackman's point (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP)

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rates did have a nice 3 days since that post

Posted

There is no chance Elon takes the easy way out; pays the $1B break up fee and says Adios MF'rs.

Hell in 6 months he could come back and offer $24.20 or maybe even $14.20. it would be the best billion he ever spent

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Posted
  On 7/9/2022 at 1:28 AM, Hefeweizen said:

I’ve made a terrible mistake.gif

 

 haha hopefully Twitter takes his billion and then goes bankrupt.

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  On 7/9/2022 at 2:08 PM, Wally Fairway said:

There is no chance Elon takes the easy way out; pays the $1B break up fee and says Adios MF'rs.

Hell in 6 months he could come back and offer $24.20 or maybe even $14.20. it would be the best billion he ever spent

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I dont think musk has legal outs available. He waived due diligence to sign a binding agreement to buy TWTR for $54.20/share. Musk used the gambit to cash out ~$8 billion out of his still inflated TSLA valuation to execute the deal, and has financing lined up. Trying to strangle the deal to a lower amount than you are contractually obliged to pay is some fraudulent fuckery and market manipulation if allowed to go through as y'all suggest

Posted
  On 7/9/2022 at 2:08 PM, Wally Fairway said:

There is no chance Elon takes the easy way out; pays the $1B break up fee and says Adios MF'rs.

Hell in 6 months he could come back and offer $24.20 or maybe even $14.20. it would be the best billion he ever spent

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That's not an option. The $1B fee is conditional and not a "because I feel like it" choice.  My guess he's hoping Twitter comes to him and says give us $5B or less and we'll let you walk away.  My other guess is Twitter tells him ... Lol...pay up as you are about to have way overpayed for us... Thanks for the extra $25B.

Posted
  On 7/8/2022 at 6:02 PM, Sbbruin said:

These quarterly "buy/sell" notes from our investment advisor are always interesting:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

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I’m on the raft too, bro.  

365C7B0D-B468-4A88-9E30-C930633DB8EC.gif

  • Haha 1
Posted
  On 7/8/2022 at 6:02 PM, Sbbruin said:

These quarterly "buy/sell" notes from our investment advisor are always interesting:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

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How much are you paying a guy to buy Facebook, Amazon and Google (and sell Coinbase) for you?

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Posted
  On 7/11/2022 at 6:19 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

Sounds like they're really earning that 2 and 20 (or whatever).

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Lol.  2 and 20 is hedge fund shit.  These basic FA types are 60-80 basis points and if you push them can get you into some shit Joe Q Public can’t.  My moron paid for himself with recovery funds early on in covid.  The thinking was there’s gonna be so much money printed that nobody will really suffer much and the ‘recovery’ funds won’t even be for recovery but once those companies take your money you’ll get a king’s ransom in return.  Anyways, said moron paid for himself - this time.  

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Posted
  On 7/12/2022 at 1:17 AM, ChiTownDoc said:

Lol.  2 and 20 is hedge fund shit.  These basic FA types are 60-80 basis points and if you push them can get you into some shit Joe Q Public can’t.  My moron paid for himself with recovery funds early on in covid.  The thinking was there’s gonna be so much money printed that nobody will really suffer much and the ‘recovery’ funds won’t even be for recovery but once those companies take your money you’ll get a king’s ransom in return.  Anyways, said moron paid for himself - this time.  

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Hey man, we're not all morons.  Just because some dumbasses that majored in education and took a test so they can sell front loaded mutual funds exist in this industry doesn't make us all idiots.  

Posted
  On 7/12/2022 at 3:06 PM, Trey3216 said:

Hey man, we're not all morons.  Just because some dumbasses that majored in education and took a test so they can sell front loaded mutual funds exist in this industry doesn't make us all idiots.  

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Haha, I used moron just because that’s the typical vernacular.  I was showing he’s actually really worth having.  If I thought he was a moron he’d be gone.  Keep up the good work.  Just taking our medicine now.  18 months from now we will be flying again.  18 months is a blip.  

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Posted
  On 7/12/2022 at 4:42 PM, ChiTownDoc said:

Haha, I used moron just because that’s the typical vernacular.  I was showing he’s actually really worth having.  If I thought he was a moron he’d be gone.  Keep up the good work.  Just taking our medicine now.  18 months from now we will be flying again.  18 months is a blip.  

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Yep.  Got most of our new $$ coming in going to Short Duration and LC Growth/Value blend.  Using the coupon payments from bonds to purchase equities and will use the $$ from bonds as they come due to scale even further into equities over time.  Allows us to DCA in a manner that also offers some short term hedging against market volatility.   

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Posted
  On 7/12/2022 at 4:48 PM, Trey3216 said:

Yep.  Got most of our new $$ coming in going to Short Duration and LC Growth/Value blend.  Using the coupon payments from bonds to purchase equities and will use the $$ from bonds as they come due to scale even further into equities over time.  Allows us to DCA in a manner that also offers some short term hedging against market volatility.   

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See I’m too busy w my day job for any of that shit, not that I would know wtf to do even with all the time in the world.  

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