Markets still falling like whoa

[Trey3216 15380]

2nd Estimate of Q2 GDP comes in at 4.2% vs 4% first estimate 

[52-80 19278]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

2nd Estimate of Q2 GDP comes in at 4.2% vs 4% first estimate 

thanks Trump

[Captainant 27972]

On 8/28/2018 at 3:44 AM, Fudge Nuggets said:

My degenerate Las Vegas style trading account is riddled with tickers in the portfolio that end in 'Q' - as mentioned above it would cost more to sell them than what they are worth.  Thankfully I understand I can't trade / invest for shit and use that particular account for "entertainment purposes" only.  Only the most vile, toxic waste pieces of shit are bought and I'll dabble in the 3x leveraged ETFs from time to time as well.

The real retirement account is safely locked away where I just put a set amount into a stock index fund every month and forget about it.

Ah yes, but what about options on 3x leveraged ETFs? That's some galaxy-brain level stuff

[Fudge Nuggets 19276]

7 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Ah yes, but what about options on 3x leveraged ETFs? That's some galaxy-brain level stuff

[Trey3216 15380]

16 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Ah yes, but what about options on 3x leveraged ETFs? That's some galaxy-brain level stuff

My personal favorite is playing options on Leveraged VIX products

[Captainant 27972]

Just now, Trey3216 said:

My personal favorite is playing options on Leveraged VIX products

buying the options on margin, of course.

[Fudge Nuggets 19276]

1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

There's another way???  

Maxing out your credit card to buy the options of a 3x leveraged VIX product on margin.

[Trey3216 15380]

Just now, Captainant said:

buying the options on margin, of course.

There's another way???  

[Trey3216 15380]

3 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Maxing out your credit card to buy the options of a 3x leveraged VIX product on margin.

That's the American way right there 

[Fudge Nuggets 19276]

6 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

That's the American way right there 

Second mortgage would also work.

[Trey3216 15380]

Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

Second mortgage would also work.

That or a Title Loan

[Incredulity 11689]

21 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

That or a Title Loan

Borrow the money from the local "Italian Sausage" market?

[Captainant 27972]

Real talk though, my AMZN $2400 11/16 call is going gangbusters today. It's been fun using small-potatoes options plays to take advantage of speculative plays without too much up-front capital. It's been pretty much all of my significant growth lately, since the majority of my portfolio is index funds and a couple individual stocks that I've been following

[Wally Fairway 5600]

Nike dip - opportunity or catching a falling knife?

Surly, what say ye?

 

[Captainant 27972]

22 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Nike dip - opportunity or catching a falling knife?

Surly, what say ye?

 

I'd by slightly OTM call(s) for nike that's at least a few months off. Should be able to buy on a discount, then sell them for a tidy profit when it bounces back up from its little tumble today. I dunno if I'd try to catch the knife with buying shares.

[Wally Fairway 5600]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

I'd by slightly OTM call(s) for nike that's at least a few months off. Should be able to buy on a discount, then sell them for a tidy profit when it bounces back up from its little tumble today. I dunno if I'd try to catch the knife with buying shares.

Thanks - bought some NKE 01/18/2019 82.5 calls, see if this can make a run

[Bozo_Casanova 26683]

2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Nike dip - opportunity or catching a falling knife?

Surly, what say ye?

 

If I was doing anything with options I would sell a put spread for about a month out at the money, where I sell the put at whatever NKE is trading at, and then buy a put below, at the point where I wanted to cap my risk.

[Bozo_Casanova 26683]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

I'd by slightly OTM call(s) for nike that's at least a few months off. Should be able to buy on a discount, then sell them for a tidy profit when it bounces back up from its little tumble today. I dunno if I'd try to catch the knife with buying shares.

I wouldn't do this, only because I don't want to pay for the time premium and in the meantime secular issues could push the price back to this point. But then again, speculation isn't my game. I'd rather sell insurance. 

Edited September 4, 2018 by Bozo_Casanova

[Captainant 27972]

36 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I wouldn't do this, only because I don't want to pay for the time premium and in the meantime secular issues could push the price back to this point. But then again, speculation isn't my game. I'd rather sell insurance. 

It should be noted, I am an idiot amateur stock trader doing this for funsies lol

[Bozo_Casanova 26683]

It should also be noted that I'm not even an amateur, not do I trade much any more. 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

On 7/25/2018 at 6:06 PM, Rusty Shackelford said:

You talking about where it will find support? I’m guessing about $160.

I'm usually wrong on my market predictions but FB finally hit $160.00 today, should bounce up from here.

[Trey3216 15380]

This past week has absolutely whipped my ass.  Ouch 

[Blotto 23703]

28 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

This past week has absolutely whipped my ass.  Ouch 

Think I'm going to be buying puts expiring mid Nov (after election) on SPY, QQQ or some other market index ETF. Usually my options trades are short term and more related to my propensity to gamble rather than being tied to any coherent investment strategy, but shit is getting a bit dodgy. I can see a ton of catalysts  for a move down with DC antics, tariffs etc.... gonna have to figure out my hedge.

[Bozo_Casanova 26683]

On 9/4/2018 at 3:29 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

If I was doing anything with options I would sell a put spread for about a month out at the money, where I sell the put at whatever NKE is trading at, and then buy a put below, at the point where I wanted to cap my risk.

 

On 9/4/2018 at 3:30 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

I wouldn't do this, only because I don't want to pay for the time premium and in the meantime secular issues could push the price back to this point. But then again, speculation isn't my game. I'd rather sell insurance. 

Had I done this, I'd already be out of this trade with a tidy profit. 

[jimmyjazz 46476]

Nibbled on a little SOXL at $156 today.  Looking to get out quickly.  Will average down once if I need to but that's my limit.

[jimmyjazz 46476]

12 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Nibbled on a little SOXL at $156 today.  Looking to get out quickly.  Will average down once if I need to but that's my limit.

Out at $159 and change.  About a 2% gain in a day.  Sure wish that was an everyday occurence.

Looking for another drop to step back in.

[Incredulity 11689]

 

[cabowabo 4578]

I'm posting this here rather than starting a new thread.  Hopefully, you assholes can assist me.  I have some money that I need to invest.  It is sitting in a account at UBS, and I am thinking about putting it in a managed fund.  The products I have discussed with UBS are QGarp, House View, and Dividend ruler funds.  The management fee at UBS would be 1.20% per year.

I also have a couple of Selective Portfolio funds at TD Ameritrade that I opened for my kids in 2010.  It has grown about 8% per year and I pay a .90 fee on those.

Are the UBS fees unreasonably high, and should I tell them to take a hike?  I am not one that needs an individual person to hold my hand and call me every few months,. so not sure I need to pay for that.

I have also read about Vanguard stuff....would that be a good option?  Basically, I'd like to put this money away, forgot about it mostly and let it do its thing.

Any advice would be much obliged.

[Incredulity 11689]

1.2% is going to eat you up.

buy VOO, Vanguard’s S&P 500 fund. Fits the buy and forget philosophy damn well.

 

 

[Anastasis 23508]

Voo has been my best YTD investment in my play money account. Buying on trade war dips. 

[hornbri 1466]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

1.2% is going to eat you up.

buy VOO, Vanguard’s S&P 500 fund. Fits the buy and forget philosophy damn well.

 

 

Seriously, just do this. You don't need to pay someone 1.2%

[jimmyjazz 46476]

Totally agree, do not pay that kind of vig.  

On a somewhat related topic:  I'm curious about systematic hedging of a portfolio.  Say one purchased a 10% out-of-the-money put 3 months until expiration on SPY.  It appears this would run about 3% per year as "insurance" (based on 100 shares of SPY).  No doubt that's well worse than the 1.2% fee quoted above, but at times that put is going to see short term gains.  There is no way over the course of a year there would be no opportunities to sell (or roll) that put for a profit.  So, less than 3% is the hedging cost.

There must be good academic studies out there detailing this kind of strategy.  Different moneyness (% OTM), different expiries, etc.  Anybody know where to look?

 

[cabowabo 4578]

Thanks guys. Will open a Vanguard account Monday. 

[Incredulity 11689]

Just FYI. You can buy VOO, for example, through any stock trading account.  E-trade, TD Ameritrade, Schwab, Ally.......

[cabowabo 4578]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

Just FYI. You can buy VOO, for example, through any stock trading account.  E-trade, TD Ameritrade, Schwab, Ally.......

Well, that is some damn useful information considering the fact that I have an Ameritrade account already.  Appreciate the info. 

[Dolemite 143]

On 8/29/2018 at 11:19 AM, Fudge Nuggets said:

Second mortgage would also work.

That's so 1999

[Dolemite 143]

On 9/7/2018 at 11:15 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Totally agree, do not pay that kind of vig.  

On a somewhat related topic:  I'm curious about systematic hedging of a portfolio.  Say one purchased a 10% out-of-the-money put 3 months until expiration on SPY.  It appears this would run about 3% per year as "insurance" (based on 100 shares of SPY).  No doubt that's well worse than the 1.2% fee quoted above, but at times that put is going to see short term gains.  There is no way over the course of a year there would be no opportunities to sell (or roll) that put for a profit.  So, less than 3% is the hedging cost.

There must be good academic studies out there detailing this kind of strategy.  Different moneyness (% OTM), different expiries, etc.  Anybody know where to look?

 

I would start here: http://www.cboe.com/ and this site which collaborates with the cboe. https://www.ivolatility.com/services.j 

Also here. https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/options-strategies.php. I use interactive for my daily goal of lunch money, which is $10. 

Edited September 9, 2018 by Dolemite

[Wally Fairway 5600]

On ‎9‎/‎7‎/‎2018 at 8:44 PM, Incredulity said:

1.2% is going to eat you up.

buy VOO, Vanguard’s S&P 500 fund. Fits the buy and forget philosophy damn well.

Very good advice here - VOO is my largest holding, followed by IJT (SmallCap Growth) to diversify from large cap.
I currently hold 8 funds, and I only "play" in a couple of individual stock (some of it in options/calls)

Disclosure: mine are held in a Schwab account, I think trades are $4.95, with no mgmt. fee (other than whatever the fund kickbacks are).

Edited September 10, 2018 by Wally Fairway
grammar, disclosure, and such

[babysdaddy 2730]

On 9/7/2018 at 10:15 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Totally agree, do not pay that kind of vig.  

On a somewhat related topic:  I'm curious about systematic hedging of a portfolio.  Say one purchased a 10% out-of-the-money put 3 months until expiration on SPY.  It appears this would run about 3% per year as "insurance" (based on 100 shares of SPY).  No doubt that's well worse than the 1.2% fee quoted above, but at times that put is going to see short term gains.  There is no way over the course of a year there would be no opportunities to sell (or roll) that put for a profit.  So, less than 3% is the hedging cost.

There must be good academic studies out there detailing this kind of strategy.  Different moneyness (% OTM), different expiries, etc.  Anybody know where to look?

 

Check out Swan Defined Risk Fund.  SDRAX.  

[jimmyjazz 46476]

On 9/10/2018 at 11:49 AM, babysdaddy said:

Check out Swan Defined Risk Fund.  SDRAX.  

Well, that looks a little less than impressive.  31% gain since inception (Aug 2012).  S&P has more than doubled in that time frame.  Call the S&P 12.9% per year, knock off 3% for the hedge, that's 9.9% per year net (yeah I know it's not exact) -- a 76% gain compared to 31% for SDRAX.  Both had similar drawdowns in the 2nd half of 2015.

Hedging is not easy.  Still, I'll buy puts if the models work out like this.

[Wally Fairway 5600]

Here is an article about one of the founders of Bogleheads, where he explains his 3 fund strategy.
US equity fund, Int'l equity fund,  US bond fund - he names the funds, and the costs to own.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-boglehead-mentor-explains-the-simplest-way-to-manage-your-money-2018-09-11

I'll have to do a little more digging into it, but this is an interesting concept for putting all but the "fun/play" money portion of my IRA.
The fun portion would include my SBUX and NKE calls that are doing okay ... so far.

[52-80 19278]

Scared money don't make none!

[Trey3216 15380]

AMD still on fire rt now.  Trying to push through 32

[bernorange 8375]

On 8/22/2018 at 7:18 AM, bernorange said:

Oh wow... I'm used to reading these things from the BRICS, but Germany?
 

http://gata.org/node/18442

So, not just Germany... now the entire EU?

Quote

Jean-Claude Juncker has vowed to turn the euro into a global reserve currency that could rival the dollar as part of the European Union's drive to reduce its financial dependence on the United States.

In his last "State of the Union" speech to members of the European Parliament in Strasbourg today, the president of the European Commission said it was an "aberration" that the EU paid for more than 80 percent of its energy imports in U.S. dollars despite only 2 percent of imports coming from the U.S.

Most of the dollar-denominated imports are from Russia and the Gulf states.

"We will have to change that. The euro must become the active instrument of a new sovereign Europe," said Mr. Juncker, whose five-year tenure as commission president is due to end next year.
...

http://gata.org/node/18489

Quote

Jean-Claude Juncker has called on the European Union to champion the euro as a global currency to rival the dollar and demanded more powers for Brussels to flex its muscles on the world stage.
...
“We must do more to allow our single currency to play its full role on the international scene,” Mr Juncker said.

“It is absurd that Europe pays for 80pc of its energy import bill – worth €300bn (£267bn) a year – in US dollars when only roughly 2pc of our energy imports come from the United States,” he said.

“It is absurd that European companies buy European planes in dollars instead of euro,” he said. “The euro must become the face and the instrument of a new, more sovereign Europe.”
...

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/jean-claude-juncker-calls-eu-132935049.html

 

[babysdaddy 2730]

On 9/11/2018 at 5:30 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Well, that looks a little less than impressive.  31% gain since inception (Aug 2012).  S&P has more than doubled in that time frame.  Call the S&P 12.9% per year, knock off 3% for the hedge, that's 9.9% per year net (yeah I know it's not exact) -- a 76% gain compared to 31% for SDRAX.  Both had similar drawdowns in the 2nd half of 2015.

Hedging is not easy.  Still, I'll buy puts if the models work out like this.

yeah, absolutely.  Main point for that fund is in another 2008/9.  Didn't know what you were looking for exactly.    

[jimmyjazz 46476]

14 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

yeah, absolutely.  Main point for that fund is in another 2008/9.  Didn't know what you were looking for exactly.    

I haven't read the prospectus -- is there good reason to believe it wouldn't follow the market down in that kind of drop?  It didn't deviate in that correction late 2015.

[babysdaddy 2730]

It's been a while but I believe the fund is buying SPY puts so it essentially forces your hand to keep investing when the typical investor would want to bail when the market is down 40 or 50%.  Theoretically you catch the entire upside in a rebound.  

[woohorn 1131]

It's back, baby!!!

[crash_davis 23158]

will this fix the shitty business plan and revenue problem?

[Wally Fairway 5600]

5 hours ago, woohorn said:

It's back, baby!!!
 

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL !!!!!!!!!!!!

Because the 1-250 reverse split in July just wasn't reverse enough. So this would make it effectively a 1 for 12,500 reverse split.

Man I wish I would have shorted H&M, or bought some puts. I don't think those are available