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Posted

If the fed does anything besides a 75 point hike and sound hawkish at the news conference, we are going to have a big day. If biden had jpows ear and they do a 50 point hike and say inflation is starting to show signs of slowing I may sell and be all cash by the end of the day. 

Posted
7 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Fed raises rates and the 10 year dips.  L O fucking L.  

Look, man. If you want things to make sense, go hang out at the STONKS thread where only sane, sound investment strategy is discussed. 

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Posted
Historically, in midterm election years, the market rises post-election from November to April of the next year and a rising tide lifts all boats.  Of course, if you don’t have a boat, you’re screwed.

A submarine would be good.


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Posted

whoa - the melt up returns, worse employment numbers just means that the Fed could (COULD/Maybe) slow the interest rate increases
(no seriously , I swear there is a monkey that spins a wheel a couple of times a day and that is what is reported as why the market is moving .... some days the monkey is named Jim Cramer)

Posted

Was it this thread or the inflation thread that had such a big argument last quarter about being in recession versus not? I saw practically nothing about the latest release:

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter

Posted
44 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Was it this thread or the inflation thread that had such a big argument last quarter about being in recession versus not? I saw practically nothing about the latest release:

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter

Things are just beautiful!  

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Posted
1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Wally, what are you staged for today?  Market up or market down?

Honestly a strangle play on options is probably a good tool to make some money during this volatility. You only lose if the asset stays the same price

Posted
4 hours ago, Parliament said:

Wally, what are you staged for today?  Market up or market down?

3 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

yes

Looks like I got it right, again

$9.95 can get you my mostest excellent market timing observations right here on Surly

 

Posted
2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Elon outing himself as an amateurish dudebro has given TSLA stock AIDS, I'm afraid.

You hate to see it but more than that, you love to see it.  Luckily I don’t own TSLA.

Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

If you own any Mutual Funds, chances are you own TSLA.

No, the funds do.  I understand the concept.  
 

But generally I’m invested in relatively diverse funds so my exposure to lil elo is pretty minimal.  90 percent of my worth is tied up in private equity, with all the associated risks and benefits.

 

I like stonks better than shitty EV makers anyway.  The only thing I find less investable is Cathy Wood and her lunatic funds.

Edited by Hefeweizen
Posted

damnitall - I forgot to look at SPY 11/14 expiry straddle/strangle to see if I could make money off the election.
not that I have a fucking clue as to how the market will react, but I'm pretty certain there will be a jump/fall and then likely an offsetting reaction shortly thereafter.

actually I hope the market jumps up, I might sell some of my ITM LEAPS and put that into some 1/2/23 puts looking to cash in on some December tax loss harvest sales

It is a boring market, in which I'm only long because I'm not spinning the roulette wheel of guess the irrational market reaction (I've tried that, it is an expensive game)

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

You sold everything this morning, didn't you.

yesterday - for a loss 🤫

actually, only 3 or 4 more days like this and I'll be back to even for the year; and opportunity cost for the SPY strangle/straddle that I didn't place on Tuesday. 
I'm okay - my Uncle Warren 1/19/24 leap calls are doing okay today 
( not that today is sustainable - but for the day who cares)

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Posted

200 day moving average around 407 for spy. Hell we may test that tomorrow.  There is a real decision I have on whether to sell at that time. After that it's 430 retest. What to do...

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