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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26,553

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Blaming "tax cuts" is the equivalent of maxing out your credit card at a 20% interest rate and blaming your boss because your salary isn't enough.

We have a spending problem in this country (personal & governmental) way more than we have a "taxation" problem.

Hey look everyone, an ideologue.

I like how you put "tax cuts" in quotes. Do you know what you call funding "tax cuts" with debt is called? 
It's called "spending".

And doing it during periods of GDP expansion  (i.e. 2001, 2003, 2017) when you don't need to fund stimulus with debt is really fucking stupid, so spare me  the phony-baloney fiscal discipline talk about spending problems. 
 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15,356

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17 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Hey look everyone, an ideologue.

I like how you put "tax cuts" in quotes. Do you know what you call funding "tax cuts" with debt is called? 
It's called "spending".

And doing it during periods of GDP expansion  (i.e. 2001, 2003, 2017) when you don't need to fund stimulus with debt is really fucking stupid, so spare me  the phony-baloney fiscal discipline talk about spending problems. 
 

Oh look, an ideologue.  Do you know what funding Medicare/welfare/ESG with debt is called???

 

see how this goes?   We have a spending problem in this country.   

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4,627

Posted
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39 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Hey look everyone, an ideologue.

I like how you put "tax cuts" in quotes. Do you know what you call funding "tax cuts" with debt is called? 
It's called "spending".

And doing it during periods of GDP expansion  (i.e. 2001, 2003, 2017) when you don't need to fund stimulus with debt is really fucking stupid, so spare me  the phony-baloney fiscal discipline talk about spending problems. 
 

 

31 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

This argument is the equivalent of your spouse claiming they saved you money by using coupons while buying crap you don't need.

We could raise the tax rates to ridiculous levels and it will never cover the debt, especially with interest rates increasing. 

 

20 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Oh look, an ideologue.  Do you know what funding Medicare/welfare/ESG with debt is called???

 

see how this goes?   We have a spending problem in this country.   

All this belongs in the CR.  Whether you think the cause is overspending or undertaxing depends on your political team.  

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bernorange

bernorange 8,363

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Posted
1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

... and people are acting like it's the Fed that's out of line.

The Fed was created to give govco unrestrained spending flexibility.  It's working as designed.  It's a feature, not a bug.  At least, that's what folks tell me when I posit that our monetary system is insane and will always Chaos Theory itself to this outcome because people are dumb.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26,553

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41 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Oh look, an ideologue.  Do you know what funding Medicare/welfare/ESG with debt is called???

It's called spending and that's a deflection. of COURSE Entitlements and non-discretionary spending is the biggest part of our spending problem. I've been saying that too, but that's besides the pooint.
The tax cuts were stupid and were the a major contributor to putting us in the spot we're in, which is what I and many others who take this serious said they would do. Do you think fascal stimulus via debt funded tax cuts during GDP expansion is smart? It's really a yes or no question. 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26,553

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27 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

 

 

All this belongs in the CR.  Whether you think the cause is overspending or undertaxing depends on your political team.  

Holy shit. THOSE ARE THE SAME THING, and I tend to think the reason why people try to segregate that to the world of politics is so they can pretend they aren't. Only people who have a team think they are different. 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26,553

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19 minutes ago, bernorange said:

The Fed was created to give govco unrestrained spending flexibility.  It's working as designed.  It's a feature, not a bug.  At least, that's what folks tell me when I posit that our monetary system is insane and will always Chaos Theory itself to this outcome because people are dumb.

You and I have been talking about this for years, so I think you know where I'm coming from here, but I'm talking about policy in the world as it is, not hypothetical alternatives, better or worse. 

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bernorange

bernorange 8,363

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45 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

... but I'm talking about policy in the world as it is ...

The problem is that smart people like yourself are not always going to be able to maintain policy within rational boundaries.  People are dumb and they will overwhelm the system eventually.  Our system allows for soft/rational boundaries but when they get abused, we set upon a path to find out what the hard boundaries are.  Of course, when we get there, everything explodes/implodes.  System design is fun.  Faith in dumb people to do smart things is dumb.

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TexasEd

TexasEd 8,077

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On 3/23/2023 at 4:06 PM, Cheeseweasel said:

If your spouse is pissing away money like a drunken sailor, is the answer "I need to get a second job" or "I should cut up the credit cards". 

Right but the answer is also not “I should make less money “

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,586

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I may have to sell all my stocks, and put it 1/2 into CD's and 1/2 into my mattress; just read that the market may start to react negatively to bad news. WTF - why did I not get this memo much earlier, I thought good news was good and bad news was good (but maybe not quite as good).
I no longer have a lucky coin to flip when making investment decisions, S&P 500 (and therefore my SPY holdings) is a joke as the top 10 holdings are almost 30% of the index (may have to switch to SPYV (but super limited options to trade).
Next someone is going to tell me that buy the hype then sell the news is not tried and true investing advice. Is the 4% rule out-dated (now relevant again as you can get 4% interest bearing returns), is buy and hold back in vogue, 
I guess the real question is - Is it possible for ME to invest using the reverse Wally method?

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bernorange

bernorange 8,363

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We are roughly a month out from the next Fed decision on rates.  Recent news appears to be bolstering a case for a Fed pause on rate hikes.  As long as that continues, the market is going to build on that expectation.  Mixed news might bolster the case for another rate hike.  Markets will likely be green on news favoring a pause and red on news favoring a hike.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,586

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On 4/15/2023 at 12:25 PM, bernorange said:

We are roughly a month out from the next Fed decision on rates.  Recent news appears to be bolstering a case for a Fed pause on rate hikes.  As long as that continues, the market is going to build on that expectation.  Mixed news might bolster the case for another rate hike.  Markets will likely be green on news favoring a pause and red on news favoring a hike.

 

15 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

There’s no recession. Rates are normal. You gave your kids shitty financial advice, they will rent and like it. Uptick starts now.

 

After earnings tho

Earnings season may have something to do with pause by Fed, or recession. And by earnings, I mean what the forward guidance looks like. 

Anecdotally, talked to my SIL this weekend about his work; he drives a semi for the large regional grocery/dry goods store and says they have off about 20% on grocery loads, and 35% on dry goods/merch and he is making far less than he was a year ago. His pay is hit by the fewer loads, and that the company has hired more drivers (because they heard it was tough to find them). But that is just one data point in a universe of millions, some with much more direct impact.

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26,438

Posted
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22 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Anecdotally, talked to my SIL this weekend about his work; he drives a semi for the large regional grocery/dry goods store and says they have off about 20% on grocery loads, and 35% on dry goods/merch and he is making far less than he was a year ago. His pay is hit by the fewer loads, and that the company has hired more drivers (because they heard it was tough to find them). But that is just one data point in a universe of millions, some with much more direct impact.

Hearing that everywhere. But it was bound to happen. We can't sustain this level of growth forever. Slowing down the growth/moderate recession  = good. Let's hope the FED can land this plane without killing everyone onboard.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,586

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Trying not to CR this thread, but when do you/we think that the markets will start to react to the pending debt ceiling hazard? 
I know that the supposed "deadline" is something July-August (which is the 4th qtr of the fiscal year); it will be interesting to see if it goes right up the the last day/minute and forces closing government agencies again. We have seen this before, but it seems somewhat different this time and politicing this is the new norm (envision the spy vs. spy cartoon as they point at each other) 
This seems like the ultimate FAFO action that the government can do to fuck around with the economy/market. 

Carry on - just old man Wally ranting a little, nothing to see here. Everything is fine, fine, just fine 

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Captainant

Captainant 27,770

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1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Both sides (I know) will harrumph at the other side and claim they are destroying America and pass yet another continuing resolution to fund the government.

Whether it's funding schools and feeding children, or giving billions away in tax cuts and corporate welfare and militarizing the police - both sides truly are to blame.

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Posted
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2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Trying not to CR this thread, but when do you/we think that the markets will start to react to the pending debt ceiling hazard? 
I know that the supposed "deadline" is something July-August (which is the 4th qtr of the fiscal year); it will be interesting to see if it goes right up the the last day/minute and forces closing government agencies again. We have seen this before, but it seems somewhat different this time and politicing this is the new norm (envision the spy vs. spy cartoon as they point at each other) 
This seems like the ultimate FAFO action that the government can do to fuck around with the economy/market. 

Carry on - just old man Wally ranting a little, nothing to see here. Everything is fine, fine, just fine 

I'm already keeping powder dry for it at these levels. It worries me a lot. There's typical politics, and then there is what we've seen for the past six years. I want to see spending reigned in. I think it's one of the biggest threats at this point. If there is another black swan -- war, pandemic, downturn, etc., we're already in too deep.

But you also don't hold the credit and rating of the United States hostage over it as a threat. 

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Lurch

Lurch 5,931

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It’s definitely one of the reasons I’m on the sidelines for a bit. There does not appear to be an out for McCarthy and that dysfunction we all witnessed during his speakership fight will actually matter when it rears up during this one. My guess is several weeks of govt shutdown is coming before he puts a clean bill on the floor. He’ll probably then lose his speakership.

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bernorange

bernorange 8,363

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4 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

...vwhen do you/we think that the markets will start to react to the pending debt ceiling hazard? 
I know that the supposed "deadline" is something July-August

June is the announced deadline.  July-August has been mentioned as a period where avoiding defaults might be possible with some fuckery involved.  I would guess markets are going to start reacting to political gridlock late May - about a month from now.

 

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B00M

B00M 6,463

Posted
Posted
On 4/16/2023 at 4:56 PM, StassneyHorn said:

There’s no recession. Rates are normal. You gave your kids shitty financial advice, they will rent and like it. Uptick starts now.

 

After earnings tho

Are you talking to the cartoon Wally posted? 
 

 

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