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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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bernorange

bernorange 8359

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I was saying it tongue in cheek. It's just funny how everyone these days seems to be selling an opinion and so many of them conflict.

He seems like someone who has predicted 24 of the last 3 market drops.

I figured your post was tongue in cheek, but I answered for the benefit of lurkers who maybe didn't know.  From listening to Dalio in interviews, videos he's produced, and things he has written, he does not strike me as "someone who has predicted 24 of the last 3 market drops".  He is a pretty sober thinker.  It's probably why he was so successful with his investing/hedge fund.

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nbmishoid

nbmishoid 949

Posted
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6 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

BTW - this is probably the single most important economic concept for Americans to understand and think about. It's the reason why we alone can do what we alone can do. 
Exorbitant Privilege

Read that as few years ago.  Definitely super important we don’t fuck up this privileged, or over use it for various political aims.  Like overusing antibiotics.

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Sam Lin

Sam Lin 3551

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Posted

But keep in mind that the primary reason RMB isn't picking up use is completely out of our control. It's not really up to us to "fuck up." If China decides to accept the domestic economy hit that floating RMB will bring, and proves to the world over many years that they're serious about it, they'll take a large chunk of global reserve usage and there's zero we can do about it.

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52-80

52-80 19147

Posted
Posted

My brothers in Christ the current VIX futures is expiring in 2 days and its dropped 2 points to 15 for a $2k profit from an 8k margin position….(despite SPX itself going down over that time period!)

The next time vol spikes you must short it, again, for it is your duty as an american imperative. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5541

Posted
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Anyone want to discuss Michael Burry buying $.6 billion worth of puts (see attachment and look to QQQ and SPY), I have not been able to find the strike price, expiration date(s). But buying puts on 2,000,000 shares of SPY and QQQ each is a big time bet. 
So is there a Surly sentiment to be anti-Burry (very similar to the reverse Wally strategy), to be pro Burry or to sit back and watch either the economy or to get a beer and watch it burn (it being either the the market/economy or Burry and his big timing it here)

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649339/000090514823000689/xslForm13F_X02/informationtable.xml

(just thinking out loud - with an outsided position like that shouldn't someone be able to track where those options are sitting?) 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5541

Posted
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6 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Is he hedging other investments or going full Wally?

As far as I can tell he is hyper-Wally on this bet, he is convinced that there is a correction. It would be interesting to see the strike and expiration dates. I mean you can buy out of the money puts than are near dated for $0.10. 
I would guess that he has them at least 6 months out, maybe up to 2025 (which is much more expensive), but you don't want to be right about a correction but miss out by having your options expire before the fall. It is not an easy game to play; it can make you rich and/or it can also drive you crazy.

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11652

Posted
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29 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

but you don't want to be right about a correction but miss out by having your options expire before the fall. It is not an easy game to play; it can make you rich and/or it can also drive you crazy.

All of which was perfectly represented in The Big Short in regards his MBS short in the Great Recession.

 

 

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52-80

52-80 19147

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Anyone want to discuss Michael Burry buying $.6 billion worth of puts (see attachment and look to QQQ and SPY), I have not been able to find the strike price, expiration date(s). But buying puts on 2,000,000 shares of SPY and QQQ each is a big time bet. 
So is there a Surly sentiment to be anti-Burry (very similar to the reverse Wally strategy), to be pro Burry or to sit back and watch either the economy or to get a beer and watch it burn (it being either the the market/economy or Burry and his big timing it here)

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649339/000090514823000689/xslForm13F_X02/informationtable.xml

(just thinking out loud - with an outsided position like that shouldn't someone be able to track where those options are sitting?) 

20,000 contracts is a drop in the ocean for those tickers.  some individual strikes on each of those options chain have more open interest than that.  so you wont be able to parse which OI is his, not to mention the delay in the 13F filing (he might not even hold those instruments anymore).  also, the reporting requirement is only for long position, so he might be holding spreads, possibly even net bullish (e.g. short SPY 450P, long SPY 420P), where those short legs are not reported.

makes great headlines for his fund though

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5541

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

20,000 contracts is a drop in the ocean for those tickers.  some individual strikes on each of those options chain have more open interest than that.  so you wont be able to parse which OI is his, not to mention the delay in the 13F filing (he might not even hold those instruments anymore).  also, the reporting requirement is only for long position, so he might be holding spreads, possibly even net bullish (e.g. short SPY 450P, long SPY 420P), where those short legs are not reported.

makes great headlines for his fund though

I get that - and the real issue is that the media is reporting the $1.6 billion notional value of the stocks underlying value. 
As an example I bought 20 SPY calls at the end of June - so 2,000 shares with a $440 strike, so I had a notional value of $880,000. My total cost was under $850; now these were 2 day expiration gambles that I guessed right on 1/2 of them and made $2,400. My total risk was less than 0.10% of the value of the stock. 
So Blurry could have a couple of million, maybe $10-$20 million riding on his bet, but it is misinformation when the media highlights the story with the $1.6 billion bet headline.

Then again if yesterday is any indication, looks like he scared some folks and his bets gained value.

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Parliament

Parliament 14242

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I get that - and the real issue is that the media is reporting the $1.6 billion notional value of the stocks underlying value. 
As an example I bought 20 SPY calls at the end of June - so 2,000 shares with a $440 strike, so I had a notional value of $880,000. My total cost was under $850; now these were 2 day expiration gambles that I guessed right on 1/2 of them and made $2,400. My total risk was less than 0.10% of the value of the stock. 
So Blurry could have a couple of million, maybe $10-$20 million riding on his bet, but it is misinformation when the media highlights the story with the $1.6 billion bet headline.

Then again if yesterday is any indication, looks like he scared some folks and his bets gained value.

Burry:

giphy.gif?resize=295,217&ssl=1

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CooterBrown

CooterBrown 18003

Posted
Posted
On 8/16/2023 at 8:53 AM, Wally Fairway said:

Then again if yesterday is any indication, looks like he scared some folks and his bets gained value.

I think that was the play.  Let the media spread the fear due to his name, sink the market for a couple of days, and make some solid money.  He could rinse and repeat a few times a year with the same result. 

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WithoutAClue

WithoutAClue 15341

Posted
Posted
On 8/15/2023 at 12:52 PM, Wally Fairway said:

Anyone want to discuss Michael Burry buying $.6 billion worth of puts (see attachment and look to QQQ and SPY), I have not been able to find the strike price, expiration date(s). But buying puts on 2,000,000 shares of SPY and QQQ each is a big time bet. 
So is there a Surly sentiment to be anti-Burry (very similar to the reverse Wally strategy), to be pro Burry or to sit back and watch either the economy or to get a beer and watch it burn (it being either the the market/economy or Burry and his big timing it here)

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1649339/000090514823000689/xslForm13F_X02/informationtable.xml

(just thinking out loud - with an outsided position like that shouldn't someone be able to track where those options are sitting?) 

according to this article Burry's puts expire in the December/January time frame.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5541

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

I think that was the play.  Let the media spread the fear due to his name, sink the market for a couple of days, and make some solid money.  He could rinse and repeat a few times a year with the same result. 

Yeah - it sucks that they can make that play, but I've seen Ackman to public to discuss (aka promote) his latest position

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5541

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, WithoutAClue said:

according to this article Burry's puts expire in the December/January time frame.

again with the bad reporting using the notional value of the underlying stock, which I get but that is not the value or cost of the options he bought. I will say that I was tempted to jump on that bandwagon, but haven't yet.

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