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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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52-80

52-80 19274

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Things are getting really fucky. @52-80, let us know when it is time to do that VIX thing again. 

I covered the last VIX futures (Q3) at 14.7, and opened new short position on the U3 averaged at 17.6.  Price right now is 18.9 if you want to party.

And then I have some short UVXY calls expiring next Friday at 17, 17.5, and 18.

If I'm on radio silence after then, assume my computer has been repo'ed.

 

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52-80

52-80 19274

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Goddamnit man, speak english. 

 

I like things that begin in U. 

On the chicago mercantile exchange, futures contracts have a base symbol and a suffix with a letter and number denoting the contract date.

/VX and /VXM = vix futures

Q=August, U=September, 3 = 2023

Ticker symbol /VXU3 or /VXMU3= vix futures expiring sept 2023

 

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52-80

52-80 19274

Posted
Posted
On 8/18/2023 at 12:36 AM, 52-80 said:

I covered the last VIX futures (Q3) at 14.7, and opened new short position on the U3 averaged at 17.6.  Price right now is 18.9 if you want to party.

And then I have some short UVXY calls expiring next Friday at 17, 17.5, and 18.

If I'm on radio silence after then, assume my computer has been repo'ed.

 

VIX futures at 17.10, UVXY at 17.20.

God is good! (until he isnt...)

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Captainant

Captainant 27879

Posted
Posted
On 8/24/2023 at 2:04 PM, 52-80 said:

image.jpeg.7cfaa9531d66ca359f2e0c197f6db4af.jpeg

Really is nuts how NVDA has figured out a way to turn extremely complex math into computer chips. The amount of processing power sitting on my desk could probably crack the enigma code while decoding 4k video and playing a game at max settings. 

In the time of the AI gold rush, NVDA is selling the best shovels

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26438

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, animaltobacco11 said:

The past 4 or 5 years, this guy gets prime time attention anytime he makes a prediction, and they always fail or are wrong. It really makes me think his whole Big Short play was more luck than skill and he is tarnishing his legacy every time he fails.

Yup. He should have pulled a Costanza and walked out on a high note.

I8iMoT.gif

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bernorange

bernorange 8367

Posted
Posted
Quote

... our call of the day from Société Générale’s poke-the-bear strategist Albert Edwards, who updated his “maddest macro chart” showing why U.S. corporate profits have held up so well during rate hikes.

As he explained in July, those profits have delayed a U.S. recession because companies have largely been net beneficiary of higher rates. Corporates borrowed long-term at 2020 and 2021’s low rates, then lent money back via Treasury bills and other vehicles at higher short-term rates.

However, in his note to clients on Wednesday, Edwards declares that “beneath the megacaps, the vast bulk of companies are in big trouble.” Yes, he’s talking about smaller companies.

The strategist who has devoted time to talking about corporate greedflation this year, spent much of his August break picking the brains of colleagues like the bank’s head of quant equity research, Andrew Lapthorne. He says a big fall in aggregate corporate interest payments “masks a big divergence in fortunes,” as shown in his chart:
...
“It stands to reason that smaller quoted companies in the Russell 2000 index, as well as unquoted companies, don’t have as much access to corporate bond issuance so have been unable to lock into the near-zero long-dated fixed borrowings that the larger companies have,” writes Edwards.

With that, he walks back his July conclusion that the U.S. is “practically immune from rising rates. Large and megacaps might be immune, but the explosion higher in corporate bankruptcies is sending a clear message,” he says.

He points to S&P data showing 402 corporate bankruptcies so far this year, nearly equal to 407 seen in 2020 and only higher during the global financial crisis. Look out for August data from the American Bankruptcy Institute, he advises. And citing the Fed senior loan officer opinion survey, Edwards says a willingness by U.S. banks to lend to small and large companies is now at recessionary levels.

But the real issue is that smaller companies remain the lifeblood of the U.S. economy, providing a chunk of jobs, he says. That’s as the megacaps may be the “vampires sucking the lifeblood” out of those corporates and others.

Edwards concludes. “It seems the lights are going out all over the U.S. smaller-cap corporate sector. They weren’t able to lock into long-term loans at almost zero interest rates and pile it high in the money markets at variable rates.” Ultimately that pain may trigger a recession, and maybe even the bigger companies will start to wobble.
...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-beating-heart-of-the-economy-may-be-ready-to-trigger-a-recession-says-this-strategist-a952538f

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MC Fresh Breath

MC Fresh Breath 4074

Posted
Posted
On 8/26/2023 at 6:40 AM, Captainant said:

Really is nuts how NVDA has figured out a way to turn extremely complex math into computer chips. The amount of processing power sitting on my desk could probably crack the enigma code while decoding 4k video and playing a game at max settings. 

In the time of the AI gold rush, NVDA is selling the best shovels

I'm curious what thoughts are in regards to 'gold rush' and 'AI bubble.'  To be clear, I'm not asking from an investor's POV, but it seems most of the talk and knowledge comes from investors.  Potential job offer with a company that is in the field and dependent on the current demand. 

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Captainant

Captainant 27879

Posted
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

I'm curious what thoughts are in regards to 'gold rush' and 'AI bubble.'  To be clear, I'm not asking from an investor's POV, but it seems most of the talk and knowledge comes from investors.  Potential job offer with a company that is in the field and dependent on the current demand. 

I think what we call "AI" would more aptly be described as large scale data processing. Every mechanism we have to move from computing against GBs of data up to TBs and PBs of data uses the same technology and techniques as machine learning. In the information age, ML models (read: massive statistical modeling) are really the best tool we have for getting value out of the vast quantities of data that most legacy organizations have been building and stewarding over the last decade.

There's definitely a boatload of crappy hype buzzword AI pitch companies out there, and lots of moonshine to chase, but the core idea and utility of it is very much so going to be a key driver in the IT business for the foreseeable future in my opinion.

And just to really emphasize how there is no moat on any of this - you can right now go download a 13 billion parameter pretrained model (around 10GB of disk space) and run it using a tool like KoboldCPP on your local machine - and presto! You've got your own Azure ChatGPT or AWS Bedrock or Google Bard, running locally on your GPU or even CPU (if you've got enough cores). Running a powerful model and building a service on it isn't a big deal - it's moreso about how you can use this new lego piece in your architecture to build new shit we haven't thought of yet

 

EDIT: and in particular with my customers, they're all hurting for ML talent as they're having trouble hiring and are leaning into skilling up existing headcount

Edited by Captainant
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MC Fresh Breath

MC Fresh Breath 4074

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I think what we call "AI" would more aptly be described as large scale data processing. Every mechanism we have to move from computing against GBs of data up to TBs and PBs of data uses the same technology and techniques as machine learning. In the information age, ML models (read: massive statistical modeling) are really the best tool we have for getting value out of the vast quantities of data that most legacy organizations have been building and stewarding over the last decade.

There's definitely a boatload of crappy hype buzzword AI pitch companies out there, and lots of moonshine to chase, but the core idea and utility of it is very much so going to be a key driver in the IT business for the foreseeable future in my opinion.

And just to really emphasize how there is no moat on any of this - you can right now go download a 13 billion parameter pretrained model (around 10GB of disk space) and run it using a tool like KoboldCPP on your local machine - and presto! You've got your own Azure ChatGPT or AWS Bedrock or Google Bard, running locally on your GPU or even CPU (if you've got enough cores). Running a powerful model and building a service on it isn't a big deal - it's moreso about how you can use this new lego piece in your architecture to build new shit we haven't thought of yet

Thanks, I appreciate it.  It seems massive computing scale and GPU demand should stay reasonably high for the near foreseeable future unless I'm blind to some kind of drop off. 

Edited by MC Fresh Breath
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Captainant

Captainant 27879

Posted
Posted
Just now, Incredulity said:

Take it to CR Comrade

Facts aren't political. Here's some AP reporting:


https://apnews.com/article/shutdown-mccarthy-government-funding-biden-trump-gaetz-637d4209f1a7ab786459f3a0bbd60296

A federal shutdown after Sept. 30 seems all but certain unless Speaker Kevin McCarthy can persuade his rebellious hard-right flank of Republicans to allow Congress to approve a temporary funding measure to prevent closures as talks continue. Instead, he’s launched a much more ambitious plan to try to start passing multiple funding bills once the House returns Tuesday, with just five days to resolve the standoff.

“We got members working, and hopefully we’ll be able to move forward on Tuesday to pass these bills,” McCarthy, R-Calif., told reporters at the Capitol.

McCarthy signaled his preference for avoiding a closure, but a hard-right flank of his House majority has effectively seized control. “I still believe if you shut down you’re in a weaker position,” he said.

 
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5596

Posted
Posted
On 9/25/2023 at 3:59 PM, Captainant said:

Facts aren't political. Here's some AP reporting:


https://apnews.com/article/shutdown-mccarthy-government-funding-biden-trump-gaetz-637d4209f1a7ab786459f3a0bbd60296

A federal shutdown after Sept. 30 seems all but certain unless Speaker Kevin McCarthy can persuade his rebellious hard-right flank of Republicans to allow Congress to approve a temporary funding measure to prevent closures as talks continue. Instead, he’s launched a much more ambitious plan to try to start passing multiple funding bills once the House returns Tuesday, with just five days to resolve the standoff.

“We got members working, and hopefully we’ll be able to move forward on Tuesday to pass these bills,” McCarthy, R-Calif., told reporters at the Capitol.

McCarthy signaled his preference for avoiding a closure, but a hard-right flank of his House majority has effectively seized control. “I still believe if you shut down you’re in a weaker position,” he said.

 

Sadly, there are a small (but vocal group) that want to see the shutdown as they believe that it will help get them re-elected. They will fuck over everyone if it does a few things for them:
a) gets them national press time
b) "proves" they are trying to save the Country at all costs
c) helps, in any way at all, for them to get reelected

and McCarthy knows that if he makes any compromises that would bring any Dems then he can bend over and his own ass goodbye as the Speaker.

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4639

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Captainant said:

It's super cute to take the actions of the handful of congresspeople who invited and incited the January 6th insurrection and describe our entire government as them. The government shut down is not being instigated by #bothsides. 

It's being shut down by the same congress people who tried to interrupt the peaceful transition of power two and a half years ago. To suggest anything else is an outrageous lie and overtly political. 

Edit: and it's specifically the HOUSE far right contingent that's doing this. Not the Senate. Literally both sides are trying to pass a budget and are being obstructed by an electorally significant minority of MAGA house republicans that also want to cut aid to Ukraine. 

Comrade, your piece of shit board is ———>

cry over there please thxkbai. 

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4639

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Captainant said:

If you think reciting facts is crying, that says more about you than you think it does. Please, keep beclowning yourselves with personal attacks as replies to facts. 

Listen, I know you recently matriculated at U of TikTok for your Econ degree, but really, we got this.  You’ll be just fine listening to the appeasing echo in the CR.  I promise, we will be just fine here.   

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