Markets still falling like whoa

TwiceHorn · December 30, 2023

BlackRock is a little insidious, State Street perhaps less so, but Vanguard represents the holdings of a bunch of little guys.

We’reTexas · December 30, 2023

3 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i don't even know what the accusation is. vanguard is a monopoly somehow? seems analogous to saying roads are a monopoly in dominating the ways we get to places in our cars.

If he ever finds out about ISS and Glass Lewis his head may explode.

52-80 · December 31, 2023

2 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

BlackRock is a little insidious, State Street perhaps less so, but Vanguard represents the holdings of a bunch of little guys.

insidious how? btw SPY is a blackrock product

Not a cat · December 31, 2023

It's almost as if Bernie doesn't know shit about fuck when it comes to markets and how they work. Shocking, I know.

Incredulity · January 1

4 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

one guy named Van Gard?

StassneyHorn · January 1

Fairly harmless tweet bemoaning the concentration

bernorange · January 1

Bozo_Casanova · January 1

Finally someone gets the big picture:

52-80 · January 2

Happy IRA reloading day you filthy animals.

markets giving a small discount so we can all support the JaneRockGuard oligopoly.

Wally Fairway · January 2

On 12/30/2023 at 4:51 PM, TwiceHorn said:

BlackRock is a little insidious, State Street perhaps less so, but Vanguard represents the holdings of a bunch of little guys.

On 12/30/2023 at 7:33 PM, 52-80 said:

insidious how? btw SPY is a blackrock product

That has been around for a while, my son showed it to me a couple of months ago - asking what I thought about it. And then I explained to him how mutual funds and EFT's worked, and that there are actually millions of owners, and the owners investments are managed by by the companies that Bernie mentioned (not even sure if this is real, since X and social media)

I like SPY, because it is actively traded. So that is what I have in my account that I play in the options market; for long term investments I have VOO and some FXAIX, depending on where the funds are sitting.

52-80 · January 2

26 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

That has been around for a while, my son showed it to me a couple of months ago - asking what I thought about it. And then I explained to him how mutual funds and EFT's worked, and that there are actually millions of owners, and the owners investments are managed by by the companies that Bernie mentioned (not even sure if this is real, since X and social media)

I like SPY, because it is actively traded. So that is what I have in my account that I play in the options market; for long term investments I have VOO and some FXAIX, depending on where the funds are sitting.

nobody even factchecked me. SPY is managed by State Street. IVV is BlackRock's equivalent SPX tracker, and its even better for retail investors due to a ridiculously low 3 basis points of expense ratio.

Wilcox Cummingtonite · January 2

And here I thought stonks only go up

Wally Fairway · January 2

I just did 2 minutes due diligence on the Sanders comment, and I believe he made it. And rereading it I realize what an asinine perspective this is, that money managers will ruin democracy; all while he serves as 1 of 3 senators who are declared as independent (though he caucus's with the Dems lest his platform be lessened), and 0 representatives are independent.
Not to overtly CR this thread, but having only 2 strong political parties seems like it is tearing apart democracy in this company.

Not a cat · January 3

On 1/1/2024 at 2:01 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Fairly harmless tweet bemoaning the concentration

Concentration of what? The literally tens of millions of individual investors that actually own those shares via the three mentioned conduit companies? If that's the case, we really need to go after DTC- those bastards seem to own everything...

bernorange · January 3

1 hour ago, Not a cat said:

... The literally tens of millions of individual investors that actually own those shares via the three mentioned conduit companies? ...

Is this like how people own the deposits held at their banks? Because that's not really true any more. Laws changed. Bail ins are the final resolution should the system break.

Incredulity · January 3

46 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Is this like how people own the deposits held at their banks? Because that's not really true any more. Laws changed. Bail ins are the final resolution should the system break.

I have honestly had moments of pause when continuing to buy VOO and other Vanguard or Schwab index funds. If one of those institutions failed...

Not a cat · January 3

1 hour ago, bernorange said:

Is this like how people own the deposits held at their banks? Because that's not really true any more. Laws changed. Bail ins are the final resolution should the system break.

First, Bernie said the concentration of political and economic power threatens democracy, not that there's a danger of default. It's just standard tactic of just throw big names in and mention " threats to democracy" and people start clutching pearls without understanding the issue. The irony is that the one he listed that really throws its weight around is blackrock, and they use it to force public companies to adopt DEI policies.

Second, comparing bank assets and fdic insurance to the securities industry doesn't fit because they're entirely different businesses and regulatory regimes. A bank's very business model requires it to loan customer deposits, and your deposit is really an IOU from the bank. If the shit hits the fan on the bank's balance sheet, well customers are fucked, absent fdic coverage.

In contrast, the various laws governing brokers (1934 exchange act and rule 15c3-3), investment advisors (1940 advisers act and rule 206(4)-2), and mutual funds (1940 investment company act and rule 17f-1 et seq), require each to keep non-margined securities separate and distinct from company assets. So if these companies fail, creditors have no claim to customer assets.

Wilcox Cummingtonite · January 4

MonkeyDoughnut · January 7

Someone convinced me selling everything and putting it in Costco stock is not good. I've been twice in last month and both times I have been overwhelmed with how packed the stores are and how efficiently they get mile long checkout lines processed.

The fact so many people are paying to shop there for what I see as good but not "great" prices confuses me.

I'm going to come back to this post in 3 years having regretted not actually doing it.

Incredulity · January 7

26 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Someone convinced me selling everything and putting it in Costco stock is not good. I've been twice in last month and both times I have been overwhelmed with how packed the stores are and how efficiently they get mile long checkout lines processed.

The fact so many people are paying to shop there for what I see as good but not "great" prices confuses me.

I'm going to come back to this post in 3 years having regretted not actually doing it.

I’ve looked at Costco stock dozens of time over the last decade and always came to the conclusion it was over valued. That conclusion has been consistently wrong.

Your story of being at the store and being impressed was also my impetus for considering purchasing their stock. They deliver damn good products at good prices.

I wish I would have pulled the trigger, probably should now.

bborange · January 7

1 hour ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Someone convinced me selling everything and putting it in Costco stock is not good. I've been twice in last month and both times I have been overwhelmed with how packed the stores are and how efficiently they get mile long checkout lines processed.

The fact so many people are paying to shop there for what I see as good but not "great" prices confuses me.

I'm going to come back to this post in 3 years having regretted not actually doing it.

I don't have many individual stocks, but I purchased a small portion of of my portfolio back in the last week of 2022 in Costco. I ended up with over a 40% gain over the last year. They are also about to pay a dividend of $15 per share later this month which I will just put back into the stock. I don't look to sell the stock anytime soon and I am less than 2 years away until I walk away into an early retirement if all goes well.

hornian · January 8

14 hours ago, bborange said:

I don't have many individual stocks, but I purchased a small portion of of my portfolio back in the last week of 2022 in Costco. I ended up with over a 40% gain over the last year. They are also about to pay a dividend of $15 per share later this month which I will just put back into the stock. I don't look to sell the stock anytime soon and I am less than 2 years away until I walk away into an early retirement if all goes well.

My one great pick. Most of my account is in ETFs, but I have about a dozen individual stocks I have bought over the years. I bought Costco back when Amazon purchased Whole Foods and the stock took a dive. Bought another tranche about 7 months later. Haven't bought any since then, but have all dividends being reinvested.

Incredulity · January 8

Its the old Buffett; rather buy a wonderful company/fair price than fair company/wonderful price thing.

Wally Fairway · January 8

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

Its the old Buffett; rather buy a wonderful company/fair price than fair company/wonderful price thing.

I think that is something that Charlie was able to get Warren to see.

Parliament · January 8

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

Its the old Buffett; rather buy a wonderful company/fair price than fair company/wonderful price thing.

What would it take to buy Surly and take it private?

bernorange · January 8

Atlanta Fed President Bostic said today that he sees an initial rate cut in Q3.

BehoId, The Underminer! · January 8

On 1/4/2024 at 3:33 PM, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Edited January 8 by BehoId, The Underminer!

Wally Fairway · January 9

18 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

username checks out

EuroHorn · January 12

Bozo_Casanova · January 12

2 hours ago, EuroHorn said:

Wait this is actually a fascinating question - lawyers can you Dirks test this? Is there a scenario where a passenger experiencing a non-fatal catastrophic malfunction and takes a position in the market on the basis of that information could be construed to have been the tippee of someone with a fiduciary responsibility, or am I thinking of this the wrong way?

MonkeyDoughnut · January 12

Definite insider trading

GoneFission · January 12

Insider trading usually involves stealing information or using information that should have remained confidential.

This is the same as trading on any other market research and wouldn't be considered insider trading in most cases.

MAUFRAIS · January 12

Dbeasy · January 12

56 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Definite insider trading

I don’t think so. It’s a public event.

We’reTexas · January 13

3 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Wait this is actually a fascinating question - lawyers can you Dirks test this? Is there a scenario where a passenger experiencing a non-fatal catastrophic malfunction and takes a position in the market on the basis of that information could be construed to have been the tippee of someone with a fiduciary responsibility, or am I thinking of this the wrong way?

You aren’t receiving information from anyone, you are observing a public event and making an inference. And you aren’t misappropriating information either, so I don’t think there’s a basis under either theory. But if you were an Alaskan employee who had real-time knowledge of the incident and shorted the stock before it made the news, yeah you’d probably be fucked.

Bozo_Casanova · January 13

26 minutes ago, We’reTexas said:

You aren’t receiving information from anyone, you are observing a public event and making an inference.

I’m not sure it’s a public event until there’s awareness beyond the people who are a party to the contract of carriage, and it’s certainly material, but I’m also not sure that’s the crucial question.
I wonder if the key question under the Dirks test is whether the passenger could have in any way taken on a fiduciary duty. I don’t see how they could but I’m not a lawyer.

Related- I’m reading a contract of carriage for an airline and I don’t see any confidentiality or non-disparagement language.

Edited January 13 by Bozo_Casanova

Wally Fairway · January 13

4 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Wait this is actually a fascinating question - lawyers can you Dirks test this? Is there a scenario where a passenger experiencing a non-fatal catastrophic malfunction and takes a position in the market on the basis of that information could be construed to have been the tippee of someone with a fiduciary responsibility, or am I thinking of this the wrong way?

On a side note, I just thought of this as it relates to planes, what ever was found out about the large puts/shorts made on airlines shortly before 9-11?

We’reTexas · January 13

15 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I’m not sure it’s a public event until there’s awareness beyond the people who are a party to the contract of carriage

Try whipping your dick out on your next flight and see how that goes. I am a securities lawyer but not a litigator, and this is not legal advice.

But seriously - you would be observing an event in a public space and making an inference about what happened and its significance. If something happened and the captain announced, “That was the result of a massive defect, we are making an emergency landing and the company has just grounded all 737s” then yeah you would be tipped.

Bozo_Casanova · January 13

13 minutes ago, We’reTexas said:

Try whipping your dick out on your next flight and see how that goes. I am a securities lawyer but not a litigator, and this is not legal advice.

Would it go on my U4?

13 minutes ago, We’reTexas said:

But seriously - you would be observing an event in a public space and making an inference about what happened and its significance. If something happened and the captain announced, “That was the result of a massive defect, we are making an emergency landing and the company has just grounded all 737s” then yeah you would be tipped.

Clearly, but would passengers who are members of the general public (ie don’t know what’s mnpi) who heard the tip be tipees in that case if the pilot didn’t derive or intend to derive any personal benefit? And if he didn’t tip for his own benefit, should the tippees (in this case the passengers know that he has disclosed MNPI?

Edited January 13 by Bozo_Casanova

Incredulity · January 13

If someone on a explosively depressurized passenger jet has the mental toughness to get into a trading account and execute profitable trades before that information becomes public I say they earned those profits and shouldn’t be bothered by the SEC

We’reTexas · January 13

2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Would it go on my U4?

Clearly, but would passengers who are members of the general public (ie don’t know what’s mnpi) who heard the tip be tipees in that case if the pilot didn’t derive or intend to derive any personal benefit? And if he didn’t tip for his own benefit, should the tippees (in this case the passengers know that he has disclosed MNPI?

I mean, there are many law-school exam arguments you could make here, but I’m just a corporate guy and I give practical risk-based advice based on the totality of situations we see. As you seem aware, “insider trading” is not a bright-line law but a legal judgment. If a client came to me and asked “Yo, if a cabin door blows off and as we’re plummeting down 30k ft the captain barrels the aisle and whispers to me this is because of a fatal defect impacting the whole fleet and then tells me what his finance bros are thinking about FY25 earnings and preliminary thoughts on FY26 revenue and op margin guidance and I manage to get some wifi to YOLO puts and then just as the order goes through we right-size ‘Almost Famous’ style and I wake up the next morning ‘Radio on the Internet’ rich, do I have anything to worry about?”, I’d probably say that wouldn’t be worth the Enforcement Division’s time given how unique the situation is and regardless worth fighting for depending how many commas you’re worth and if your car doors now go “like this”.

Edited January 13 by We’reTexas

BearSchlong · January 13

WWGD

MonkeyDoughnut · January 13

11 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I don’t think so. It’s a public event.

It's not considered public for insider trader purposes until it's been widely reported to the general public.

Editing....more I think about it though there is the question of there would be enough doubt as to a direct line to what company might be at issue. I'm now leaning to SEC would likely undo your trade if sizeable, but might let it stick and doubtful any criminal charges would be given.

Edited January 13 by MonkeyDoughnut
Changed mind

MonkeyDoughnut · January 13

10 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

On a side note, I just thought of this as it relates to planes, what ever was found out about the large puts/shorts made on airlines shortly before 9-11?

Turned out to be innocent trading by a couple US firms. One took an unusually large UAL short option position but also bought a large AA position, was just hedging. Another was traced to a firms newsletter to subscribers recommending the short position. Followers reacted as they had on prior newsletter recommendations.

Like those or the plane above example, how the SEC would handle it would be they get a list of abnormal or large gains for an event. Those traders are questioned as to why they made the trades. If not valid or they can't defend their decision, the trades would be undone at a minimum, charges possible depending on info given.

sidis · January 15

there was an apple tv show that contemplated this earlier this year with black james bond.

Parliament · January 15

On 1/12/2024 at 9:35 PM, BearSchlong said:

WWGD

So how does a person buy NASA stock?

Incredulity · January 15

BearSchlong · January 16

I just always assumed it was a catch all phrase referring to NASA suppliers like Lockheed Martin, Morton Thiakol et al.

52-80 · January 16

On 1/13/2024 at 12:36 AM, Dbeasy said:

I don’t think so. It’s a public event.

It's insider trading until he's inside the fuselage, seated in rows 1-10.

rows 11-30, can be argued in court he's just lucky.

Incredulity · January 16

So....are we going to end up giving back the Nov and Dec gains? 24 kinda sucks.

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Markets still falling like whoa

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