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Markets still falling like whoa


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5 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Berkshire sold basically half their stake in AAPL.  DAMN 

Did they just shift to a cash holding or was it rotated to other equity investments?

Edited by swraith
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2 hours ago, swraith said:

Did they just shift to a cash holding or was it rotated to other equity investments?

If they’re shifting out of big banks as well, then likely cash.  Didn’t see anything about where the money went.   
 

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1 crypto market maker shut shop over the weekend and liquidated all their positions. Looks like their drawing down the market is cascading to other participants. 

VIX futures doing incredible things today. Up 60% so RIP short volatility guys. 

But hey…long treasury bonds been healthy 😮‍💨

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On 8/3/2024 at 7:39 PM, swraith said:

Did they just shift to a cash holding or was it rotated to other equity investments?

Berkshire always keeps a gigantic warchest. Their cash + short term treasuries (ie very liquid) are the same size as all their stock investments combined. Almost $300B each. 

Warren might go on a discount buying spree soon...

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Fun stuff to watch: whether the dept of treasury's financial stress index reaches positive, which defines a state of "stress".  The index is constituted from the 5 colored categories below, 4 of which is starting to get tested.

 

chart.thumb.png.406f7941f9a573d2c20835288a8ebbf1.png

 

And then this is the leverage amount of the 2000+ qualifying hedge funds, which are $150M+ in size.  Higher leverage means stronger amplification of market moves i.e. accelerates volatility

borrowing-by-type-us-dollars.png.bf91fdcfb4c8250b78674b5be8fdb07f.png

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Quote

Here's where U.S. stock market futures stand at the moment:

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 1,183 points, or 3%, following a 611-point loss on Friday.

S&P 500 futures are down 4.4% after the benchmark lost 1.8% on Friday.

Nasdaq-100 futures lost 5.9% as big tech stocks got hit hard in early trading.

This is going to suck 

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I guess the only bright side is that interest rates will definitely go down next month, and probably again before the end of the year. The question is, how quickly will the market recover back to the recent highs?

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2 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

I guess the only bright side is that interest rates will definitely go down next month, and probably again before the end of the year. The question is, how quickly will the market recover back to the recent highs?

Powell doesn't give a shit what happens to the market. He cares what happens to GDP unemployment and inflation. 

Stocks crashing could be a sign that GDP will dip and unemployment will rise, but the speculative prices are so disconnected from reality that it doesn't have a direct impact. 

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Just now, immamac said:

Stocks crashing could be a sign that GDP will dip and unemployment will rise, but the speculative prices are so disconnected from reality that it doesn't have a direct impact. 

Gonna be interesting to see what a bunch of finance departments do when line stops going up. Seems like the speculation fever is starting to break

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2 minutes ago, immamac said:

Powell doesn't give a shit what happens to the market. He cares what happens to GDP unemployment and inflation. 

Stocks crashing could be a sign that GDP will dip and unemployment will rise, but the speculative prices are so disconnected from reality that it doesn't have a direct impact. 

Fair, but my predictions stand

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Just now, Mo Horn said:

Fair, but my predictions stand

I think they actually have wanted a crash for a while, just like many economists. It's healthy. Lots of things have been outperforming for no reason lately. 

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Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Wouldn’t shock me if the market ends up positive by the end of the day. 

I think we bounce off the 200 day moving average.  Stocks don't just fall straight down. And Japan has been following our moves from the day before the last 2 sessions. 

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5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Wouldn’t shock me if the market ends up positive by the end of the day. 

global indices are all red so there may be too much of a downward cascading effect

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5 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

I think we bounce off the 200 day moving average.  Stocks don't just fall straight down. And Japan has been following our moves from the day before the last 2 sessions. 

Who's gonna tell him? 

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schwab app has technical error right now - cant log on (its been happening quite frequently recently). 

matt levine has a funny bit about how during market distress, people who cant access their account fare off well because it prevents them from panic selling

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2 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

if it keeps going, we all owe Eddie a beer

Yea 508 was the -10% from all.time high resistance level and I think it hit that in premarket trading. Damn premarket, always gets the cool stuff. 

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Which are the strong companies getting trashed today?

I just sold some puts on META and PFE this morning.

Can anyone explain why large cap oil and gas midstream companies are down 3% as a group? Are we really going to use less energy in the next 5 years?

 

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1 minute ago, hornmpa96 said:

Which are the strong companies getting trashed today?

I just sold some puts on META and PFE this morning.

Can anyone explain why large cap oil and gas midstream companies are down 3% as a group? Are we really going to use less energy in the next 5 years?

 

Stock market has nothing to do with 5 years from now. 

Dead cat bounces everywhere another "soft halt" from the brokerages. I think after citadel and Robinhood decided it was okay to break your trading product to prevent selloffs brokerages are just doing it on purpose. 

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31 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

Which are the strong companies getting trashed today?

All of them. Lol.

Old economy is looking nice.

Altria prints a fat fucking net margin at a 4x revenue multiple. Coke does a steady 25% margin against steady growth at 6x valuation. 

Both at a slight discount today. 

 

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