Markets still falling like whoa

[Wally Fairway 5664]

17 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

i am getting fucking killed today. 

While the last couple of days (maybe a week) has been unpleasant, this is nothing like getting killed.

Try to figure out what it was like on Black Monday (10/19), the previous week the market dropped from about 10%, then on Monday it dropped over 20% (DJIA down 22.6%), Tuesday the rout continued until about noon when the SEC allowed stock buybacks that essentially halted the slide.

 

[Trey3216 15450]

Lot of high volume algo buying the past 15 minutes.  Nas may try to finish green here.  

[Trey3216 15450]

...Or not

[Bozo_Casanova 26773]

26 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

While the last couple of days (maybe a week) has been unpleasant, this is nothing like getting killed.

Try to figure out what it was like on Black Monday (10/19), the previous week the market dropped from about 10%, then on Monday it dropped over 20% (DJIA down 22.6%), Tuesday the rout continued until about noon when the SEC allowed stock buybacks that essentially halted the slide.

 

What it was like? It was super fun! 

Edited October 11, 2018 by Bozo_Casanova

[jimmyjazz 46979]

38 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Yeah same. Just pulled the ripcord and liquidated my stocks. I am however still holding onto my short positions that I had open. I'm thinking what with the imminent reaction to increasing interest rates, geopolitical goings-on, and natural disaster season, it's not going to be an especially fun next couple of weeks.

I'm not gonna rag on you if it happens to be true, but I wouldn't be shocked if you just sold at the bottom.  While I don't feel like anything is real any more, I don't know that there's a real good reason to think this 7% correction goes any farther.  For one thing, bond yields relaxed a bit today, and while I will continue to reiterate that I  know jack about the complexities and interrelationships of various markets, it does seem that rising yields were spooking stock investors.

Feel free to point and throw things at me if we drop another chunk from here.

Edited October 11, 2018 by jimmyjazz

[Trey3216 15450]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

I'm not gonna rag on you if it happens to be true, but I wouldn't be shocked if you just sold at the bottom.  While I don't feel like anything is real any more, I don't know that there's a real good reason to think this 7% correction goes any farther.  For one thing, bond yields relaxed a bit today, and while I will continue to reiterate that I neither know jack about the complexities of various markets, it does seem that rising yields were spooking stock investors.

Feel free to point and throw things if we drop another chunk from here.

I think we're somewhere in the middle.  A bunch of the big tech names, which helped spur this never ending rally, have pulled back 20-35%.   That's more than enough to see some sector rotation and other areas of strength become new leaders.  Pharma/Financials, I'm looking at you

[Captainant 28392]

4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm not gonna rag on you if it happens to be true, but I wouldn't be shocked if you just sold at the bottom.  While I don't feel like anything is real any more, I don't know that there's a real good reason to think this 7% correction goes any farther.  For one thing, bond yields relaxed a bit today, and while I will continue to reiterate that I  know jack about the complexities and interrelationships of various markets, it does seem that rising yields were spooking stock investors.

Feel free to point and throw things at me if we drop another chunk from here.

I'm basically profit taking super late at this point. I've been riding AMD since it was $10 and was holding ALGN from when it was $200 back in March. I'm up 45% YTD so I'm pretty pleased with how I've done even if I'm jumping at the bottom of this slide. 

My portfolio is primarially tech though, and I don't see that sector getting significantly better in the near future. Tarrifs, supply chain breaches, the fact that tech is already somewhat bubble-y, take your pick. Figured its a nice time to take a breather 

[jimmyjazz 46979]

Nothing wrong with taking a profit.

[Wally Fairway 5664]

8 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What it was like? It was super fun! 

It wasn't as bad as it would be today.
No internet to watch the tumbling lines on charts
No (or very limited) computerized trading to accelerate the volume/volatility
Hell with ticket tape machines even brokers didn't know what the prices were (because they only showed the 1 digit for dollars then the fractions
(ahhh - remember when stocks traded in 1/8's)

For lunch that day I happened to be driving into downtown Houston from a clients office to pick up a couple of new suits. We hadn't heard anything about the market that morning, and when I turned on the radio there was a breaking news report about the crash. Not much you could really do, except head back to work. The only investments I had were in a 401(k) plan, and in those days you could only change funds at the beginning of a quarter.

[Captainant 28392]

8 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

No internet to watch the tumbling lines on charts
No (or very limited) computerized trading to accelerate the volume/volatility

I feel like these two specific factors are a big wild card for a modern financial meltdown. We already saw what trading algos can do in 2008, but social media and weaponized disinformation weren't really so much a thing back then. Most algos index sentiment from social media and media in general, which combined with what facebook and twitter are to us now... It's not going to be an especially pretty time.

 

EDIT: Also worth noting that the economy is having a really tough time right now... Even with a MASSIVE stimulus tax break that effectively expended the next several years of economic levers to pull (no cr)

Edited October 11, 2018 by Captainant

[Trey3216 15450]

4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I feel like these two specific factors are a big wild card for a modern financial meltdown. We already saw what trading algos can do in 2008, but social media and weaponized disinformation weren't really so much a thing back then. Most algos index sentiment from social media and media in general, which combined with what facebook and twitter are to us now... It's not going to be an especially pretty time.

 

EDIT: Also worth noting that the economy is having a really tough time right now... Even with a MASSIVE stimulus tax break that effectively expended the next several years of economic levers to pull (no cr)

Algos didn't really trigger '08, but we saw what algos could do in 2010 (Flash Crash) and earlier this spring with the Leveraged Volatility Implosion.  

[Yarbr 123]

I was a buyer today. Buncha pussies.

[Red Six 131]

9 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Algos didn't really trigger '08, but we saw what algos could do in 2010 (Flash Crash) and earlier this spring with the Leveraged Volatility Implosion.  

Were algos responsible for the XIV implosion? I thought it had to do with the fund not rebalancing until after closing or something similar related to its structure.

[Blotto 23974]

With the market on edge heading into earnings, I'm guessing you do not want to miss estimates by even a cunt hair in the tech stock realm.

[Trey3216 15450]

14 minutes ago, Red Six said:

Were algos responsible for the XIV implosion? I thought it had to do with the fund not rebalancing until after closing or something similar related to its structure.

Algos had some to do with, and the rebalancing killed it off.  The thing that really killed it was not halting it prior to close and waiting til after hours to halt.  A large algo trade after hours triggered some other large trades to go through which triggered an implosion. Basically, if that listing falls a certain point over the course of one day, it could fold.  A huge Short trader came in and triggered a massive amount of algo stop losses, and those losses resulted in implosion

[Bozo_Casanova 26773]

I think we're somewhere in the middle.  A bunch of the big tech names, which helped spur this never ending rally, have pulled back 20-35%.   That's more than enough to see some sector rotation and other areas of strength become new leaders.  Pharma/Financials, I'm looking at you

Prodded by the urge to do some profit and a combination of greed, fear, laziness and luck, I split my 401ks into a 50/50 mix of bond and large cap ETF, and went 90% cash with everything else on September 14th.

So other than unvested RSA’s I’m well insulated from this, and the question for me is when and where to get back in. I’m in no rush, and cash will only be getting more attractive for a bit.

[Trey3216 15450]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Prodded by the urge to do some profit and a combination of greed, fear, laziness and luck, I split my 401ks into a 50/50 mix of bond and large cap ETF, and went 90% cash with everything else on September 14th.

So other than unvested RSA’s I’m well insulated from this, and the question for me is when and where to get back in. I’m in no rush, and cash will only be getting more attractive for a bit.

I'd start nibbling at 10-20% clips, looking to put money to work over a period of 5-8 purchases.

 

First, Seems like you may be a candidate for a dividend paying portfolio.  I'm looking at names like T, BP, WMT, MSFT, 

So if you were going to put 50k total to work (10% of 500k for easy mathsss), I'd buy $12.5k each of these 4 stocks (if you're looking for a dividend growth portfolio.  And there are plenty of names, but I'm just throwing names out that pay dividends and serve different purposes here).  Then, wait a bit to see what the market looks like over the next week or so to see what earnings/news is coming out.  If things look a bit better, maybe I put another 100k into them, maybe even 150k to make it 40% vested. 

Now I'm waiting until elections, 1st reading of Q3 GDP, and what have you.   Then you either hold, buy more, or use the other 300k to bet on other things that are more timely.  

[Trey3216 15450]

Futures pointing up for tomorrow.    I think we either open up, then fade to ST capitulation or we roar from the go.   Not much in between to be had.   The market wants to go somewhere, we just need to see where the volume wants us to go.   AMZN up 50 AH.     Really was wanting to get this around 1600 if possible, 

[Superhero 8991]

9 hours ago, Anastasis said:

i am getting fucking killed today. 

And last week. Down $100K since last Monday.

[Tailgate 3054]

Ya, this is the week you turn your devices off and don’t watch. It always bounces back and you can’t get emotions involved.

#long

[Fudge Nuggets 19407]

13 hours ago, Blotto said:

With the market on edge heading into earnings, I'm guessing you do not want to miss estimates by even a cunt hair in the tech stock realm.

Missing estimates will kill you.  Even guiding lower than previously stated will whack you 20% in this environment.

[jimmyjazz 46979]

S&P 500 up 1% in premarket trading.  DOW up 0.93%, NASDAQ up 1.63%.

Let's see if it holds during the day.  I wouldn't be surprised to see it fade into the weekend.

[Reagan1k 3040]

And here we goooooooo!

[Anastasis 23699]

go drunk market, you're home.

[Trey3216 15450]

57 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

go drunk market, you're home.

This bitch is either gonna bomb spectacularly the last 2 hrs or it’s gonna try to find some footing

[Reagan1k 3040]

15 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

This bitch is either gonna bomb spectacularly the last 2 hrs or it’s gonna try to find some footing

**GIF**  Why not both **GIF

[jimmyjazz 46979]

I predicted the fade, but not the rebound.

[Sbbruin 22082]

Nice bounce today.

[Superhero 8991]

Damn... missed out on HMNY jumping 17% today! Would've bought everyone here a glass of champagne.

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Should have bought NFLX instead

[Superhero 8991]

5 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Should have bought NFLX instead

I already own some. Last batch bought (recently) at $400.

I left a TON of money on the table years ago - bought at $90, sold at $120. Then they soared to $700 and then did a 1:7 split.

 

 

Is there any a time to sell AMZN, GOOG and APPL?

I bought them at $200, $564 and (equivalent of $67). I wish I could quit them, but I keep thinking the party will never stop for these 3.

[Goofyboy 3428]

I sold half of my Apple stock. Everything left is house money. I’ll leave it till I retire.

[Bozo_Casanova 26773]

And last week. Down $100K since last Monday.

This is how you humblebrag people

[Chapo 104]

I'm waiting for Sushi to make an appearance in this thread

[Wally Fairway 5664]

teach me about pot stocks; which one(s) will take my portfolio high?

[bernorange 8385]

So I know this thread is a general investing discussion thread and the title is more or less ironic ode to the thread on TOS that started with earnest intent, but I'm seeing a lot more drumbeats in financial media warning about future.  Caveat Emptor.

Worth a click and a read - a snippet just won't do:  https://news.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/imf-issues-dire-warning-great-depression-ahead/

Also, did I already post the Bloomberg video interview where Ray Dalio says that he sees a dollar crisis coming within the next two years?  I think I did, so I don't want to repost, but if I haven't I'll add it to the thread if anyone is interested.

[McFly 606]

6 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

teach me about pot stocks; which one(s) will take my portfolio high?

I posted this about 6 months ago.

Quote

Some US and Canadian companies I bought last year.  They haven’t all been winners but up overall  

ACBFF

APHQF

CRON

EMHTF

MJ

NUGS

PURA

SGMD

TRTC

TWMJF

TWMJF is now CGC

Just checked and they are all currently up overall but mostly down today.  PURA has been on a nice run lately but down a good chunk today.  They all swing up and down constantly. 

[Yarbr 123]

Uh oh, HMNY getting probed by the New York AG for misleading investors.

[Trey3216 15450]

4 minutes ago, Yarbr said:

Uh oh, HMNY getting probed by the New York AG for misleading investors.

Was just about to come post.   Pretty funny

[Fudge Nuggets 19407]

15 hours ago, Yarbr said:

Uh oh, HMNY getting probed by the New York AG for misleading investors.

No wai.  The entire saga of this POS has been hilarious to watch unfold.

[Trey3216 15450]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

No wai.  The entire saga of this POS has been hilarious to watch unfold.

The HMNY thread on Stocktwits is as sad as it is hilarious. 

[jimmyjazz 46979]

Look out below . . . I took it in the minor shorts on the last pullback but fortunately went short (long puts) on SOXL a couple of days ago, as well as SPY this morning.  It's getting ugly.

[Superhero 8991]

Yup. Going to sell sell sell tomorrow. It’s starting to look like 2007. 

[happyfunball 481]

29 minutes ago, Superhero said:

Yup. Going to sell sell sell tomorrow. It’s starting to look like 2007. 

?? Large financial crisis??

Seems like the market is taking a short-term pull back due to profit taking. US economy is still humming along with positive data including rising wages. The only negatives are geo-political (e.g. trade war and instability in foreign markets). 

This has been a hated rally but earnings continue to be to the upside. 

[bernorange 8385]

hfb - where does rising interest rates or a rising price for oil figure in your outlook?

Edited October 18, 2018 by bernorange

[happyfunball 481]

6 minutes ago, happyfunball said:

?? Large financial crisis??

Seems like the market is taking a short-term pull back due to profit taking. US economy is still humming along with positive data including rising wages. The only negatives are geo-political (e.g. trade war and instability in foreign markets). 

This has been a hated rally but earnings continue to be to the upside. 

AmEx tops profit estimates on higher consumer spending
 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-american-express-results/amex-tops-profit-estimates-on-higher-consumer-spending-idUSKCN1MS31V

[happyfunball 481]

1 minute ago, bernorange said:

hfb - where does rising interest rates or a rising price for oil figure in your outlook?

Interest rates are still very low so while raising interest rates will dampen spending let's not delude people that money is tight. A proof point of this is that Private Equity multiples for M&A is at historical highs. 

For oil, volatility sucks but unless you are an airline or oil is a major COGs of your business then I don't think it has a huge impact. If we were looking at oil above $100 then I would have more concern about broader economy and market impact. 

When people raise concern about the slowing global economy, remember the US especially the consumer drives a big %.

I'd expect to see a lot of tech IPOs come to market in 2019 unless there is a significant global event / market correction.

[jimmyjazz 46979]

Yeah, I have no reason to believe we're staring at 2007 doom here.  It's just ugly right now.  The broad market is down ~ 6% from the recent (all time) high.  Another 4% wouldn't even put it on the panic radar.

[Superhero 8991]

My memory is fuzzy, but IIRC, in 2007, DOW was north of 14,000. In 6 months, it dropped 2.000 points before the bottom fell out by September 2008.

Being in construction, we started noticing  multi-family and mixed-use projects being cancelled because lending had dried up. It happened fairly quickly in 2006-2007. While the pace is not as quick as before, we’re starting to notice projects starting to not pencil out. In the first 6 months of 2018, LA issued more building permits than all of 2017. But I don’t see many new tower cranes going up.

There are the doom and gloom gold bugs that are peddling their wares. And then there is the Economist, and even the IMF warning about a depression.

I’ve had a pretty good run the past 3-4 years. I think it’s time to take some profits, step to the sideline, and figure what to do next. Most likely I’ll hang on to my FANGs, but get out of some weaker performers. 

[Superhero 8991]

I liquidated my MNST, FB, INTC and TGT stocks, along with some relatively underperforming mutual funds.

its about 12% of my portfolio. Still have my ANG (less F) stocks. Gonna hold onto those until after October to see what happens.

My tax bill is going to suck this year.