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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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hornbri

hornbri 1394

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Posted

Inflation numbers slightly better than expected. 

“The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure the Fed focuses on to measure the cost of goods and services in the U.S. economy, rose 0.1% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.2%, down from 2.5% in July.”

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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jdhorn92

jdhorn92 1545

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, hornbri said:

Inflation numbers slightly better than expected. 

“The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure the Fed focuses on to measure the cost of goods and services in the U.S. economy, rose 0.1% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.2%, down from 2.5% in July.”

When will the 10year start to drop?  Seems like lower inflation and the drop in fed funds rate would have triggered more action to the downside.  It actually rallied since last week.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15343

Posted
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7 hours ago, jdhorn92 said:

When will the 10year start to drop?  Seems like lower inflation and the drop in fed funds rate would have triggered more action to the downside.  It actually rallied since last week.

When the market is convinced that things are working.  The 25’s and 30’s are up since the announcement.  Market isn’t convinced inflation is fully tamed, or that economic conditions are sufficient, or some combination.    

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5310

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1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

It'd be nice if my "Politically Agnostic Portfolio" I built didn't keep getting wrecked by the long end of the treasuries curve.  Good Lord.  

I learned my lesson on trying to pick stocks based on political outcomes.  Hint: it never goes the way I expect.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15343

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4 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

I learned my lesson on trying to pick stocks based on political outcomes.  Hint: it never goes the way I expect.

Not even trying to pick stocks based on political outcomes...Built a politically agnostic portfolio that really should only give a shit about economic conditions......

L/S equity

Managed Futures

Long Long dated treasuries that should go up as yields come down (that's the big rub.....)

Put Write Strategy on S&P

A small hint of Bitcoin

 

 

 

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B00M

B00M 6413

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Not even trying to pick stocks based on political outcomes...Built a politically agnostic portfolio that really should only give a shit about economic conditions......

L/S equity

Managed Futures

Long Long dated treasuries that should go up as yields come down (that's the big rub.....)

Put Write Strategy on S&P

A small hint of Bitcoin

 

Will Ferrell Comedy GIF by filmeditor
kidding! … One day a portfolio based on the actual economy, rather than the fed and global politics, will be ideal. Not sure when. Maybe never. Cheers

Edited by B00M
Source: am also an idoit
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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10505

Posted
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6 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Not even trying to pick stocks based on political outcomes...Built a politically agnostic portfolio that really should only give a shit about economic conditions......

Do you really think that politics don’t heavily influence economic conditions ?

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15343

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3 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

Do you really think that politics don’t heavily influence economic conditions ?

Oh I know they do, but the economics will overtake the angst at some point.   I’d just rather be right sooner.  Because I know I’m right in the intent 

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hornbri

hornbri 1394

Posted
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On 10/9/2024 at 5:22 PM, Storm the Field said:

LOL. Can never ever actually mention the price of stocks or commodities in this subforum, lest you be accused of jinxing it.

When the S&P goes up this thread is quiet….

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bernorange

bernorange 8359

Posted
Posted

Thread title is a continuation of a thread started on Shaggy circa 2007-2008 GFC IIRC.  Had markets run a natural course, it likely would have been appropriate.  Instead, the Fed decided that inflating assets was the only path forward and here we are.

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52-80

52-80 19147

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Be interesting if premarket bump hold all day.  I’m going to be able to get out of some regrettable positions if it does. 
 

Sad Please Please Please GIF by myHQ

it has to.  VIX is getting absolutely demolished, which means it's risk-on for capital flows back into equities

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Captainant

Captainant 27625

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Captainant said:

I wonder how much pain the tarrifs will bring if/when they take effect. Because it definitely isn't fucking CHYNA paying em

Oh look, futures are already showing signs

https://www.farmprogress.com/markets-and-quotes/morning-market-review

Quote

Trump’s victory in Tuesday’s presidential election is likely to fuel concerns that U.S. farmers, already grappling with a sharp income drop due to slumping crop prices, may suffer further if the new president ramps up tariffs on China. Trump has vowed to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and at least a 10% levy on all other imports. That’s stirred fears any trade war with China could be worse than the 2018-19 dispute that cost U.S. grain producers billions.

In a recent study, the National Corn Growers Association and American Soybean Association, forecast a new China trade war could prompt deeper U.S. crop export losses, push down already depressed domestic prices and cement a shift of China's imports to Brazil and Argentina.

 

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