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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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CooterBrown

CooterBrown 18001

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Willfully Horn said:

This is what I have advised my kids about their holdings. Current events have me reconsidering.

I'm 7 years from retirement.  My IRA portfolio is aggressive...70% VOO 30% VGT.  Returns have been phenomenal.  However, I don't exactly trust the Trump brain trust to not drive everything into the ditch and set it on fire but I also don't want to miss out on market hubris.  

I'm considering setting a trailing stop limit at either -5% or -10% for both ETFs.  Even though I may be briefly out of the market for a few days if there's a short market downturn, at least I am protecting wealth and, since it's an IRA, there are no tax consequences for being overly risk adverse...while also being greedy...right now.

 

 

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CooterBrown

CooterBrown 18001

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

what's the mechanism to get back into the market?   intestinal fortitude?   Obviously the risk with that strategy is a failure to get back in.

That is a legitimate sticking point.  I want to make sure my exit point isn't too easily hit on normal market swings but I don't want to to lose 20+%.  As a result, it's hard to pull the trigger.

A quick look at VOO from 2010 to today, there are only a few sustained runs where the closing price is lower than 10% off of the all-time high closing price.  For all of them, if you re-entered the ETF after 3 days of the closing price being within 10% of the all-time high, the price set a new record within a few weeks.  I don't know if that's an actual indicator of when to get back in or if it's just a coincidence since there's so few extended downturns.  Most of the downturns are less than a week except for MAR2020-JUN2020 and APR2022-JUN2023.  

Since I do have enough to retire in that account already, I think erring on the side of wealth protection is probably an okay decision. There are worse things in the world than sitting in a Fidelity cash account earning a bit of interest.

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11643

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

That is a legitimate sticking point.  I want to make sure my exit point isn't too easily hit on normal market swings but I don't want to to lose 20+%.  As a result, it's hard to pull the trigger.

A quick look at VOO from 2010 to today, there are only a few sustained runs where the closing price is lower than 10% off of the all-time high closing price.  For all of them, if you re-entered the ETF after 3 days of the closing price being within 10% of the all-time high, the price set a new record within a few weeks.  I don't know if that's an actual indicator of when to get back in or if it's just a coincidence since there's so few extended downturns.  Most of the downturns are less than a week except for MAR2020-JUN2020 and APR2022-JUN2023.  

Since I do have enough to retire in that account already, I think erring on the side of wealth protection is probably an okay decision. There are worse things in the world than sitting in a Fidelity cash account earning a bit of interest.

I agree with the sentiment on some cash.  4%plus probably beats inflation over the next 5 years.  You might want to consider some medium term CD's or t-bills.  If its good enough for Warren...

 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15343

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

I'm 7 years from retirement.  My IRA portfolio is aggressive...70% VOO 30% VGT.  Returns have been phenomenal.  However, I don't exactly trust the Trump brain trust to not drive everything into the ditch and set it on fire but I also don't want to miss out on market hubris.  

I'm considering setting a trailing stop limit at either -5% or -10% for both ETFs.  Even though I may be briefly out of the market for a few days if there's a short market downturn, at least I am protecting wealth and, since it's an IRA, there are no tax consequences for being overly risk adverse...while also being greedy...right now.

 

 

I like to keep a 5-10ish % in a 'single stock/single idea' pile in case I need to put that into VXX for a short period of mega-uncertainty.  let the stock do it's thing, then sell it when convenient and buy VXX to hedge the portfolio if need be.  Did it leading up to the election and made a nice 15% gain on the VXX trade.  

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52-80

52-80 19140

Posted
Posted
On 11/17/2024 at 1:57 AM, wackawacka said:

Now I am not sure given the rampant economic uncertainty that is going to be created.

Interesting divergence from the 4 bellweathers of the US consumer economy, with Target and Walmart reporting this week, and Visa and Mastercard reporting last month (pre-election)

Visa: forward growth ~10%

MC: forward growth ~10%

WM: forward growth ~10%

Target: forward growth flat.  stock takes 20% hit in pre-market.

 

3 out of 4 looking rosy is not bad, ill take it.

 

at the low-end, dollar tree and dollar general both expect very modest growth (rather than big jump in cost conscious shoppers). also good sign imo

 

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