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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23485

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

What, you don't think putting a person that had literal brain worms in charge of the FDA isn't gonna make things run smoother?

Lots of reasons for market concern, including his views on DTC advertising and the industry revolving door at the agency. 

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Willfully Horn

Willfully Horn 8049

Posted
Posted
On 11/16/2024 at 6:57 PM, wackawacka said:

I just convinced myself that I am buy and hold forever. Now I am not sure given the rampant economic uncertainty that is going to be created.

This is what I have advised my kids about their holdings. Current events have me reconsidering.

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CooterBrown

CooterBrown 18028

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17 hours ago, Willfully Horn said:

This is what I have advised my kids about their holdings. Current events have me reconsidering.

I'm 7 years from retirement.  My IRA portfolio is aggressive...70% VOO 30% VGT.  Returns have been phenomenal.  However, I don't exactly trust the Trump brain trust to not drive everything into the ditch and set it on fire but I also don't want to miss out on market hubris.  

I'm considering setting a trailing stop limit at either -5% or -10% for both ETFs.  Even though I may be briefly out of the market for a few days if there's a short market downturn, at least I am protecting wealth and, since it's an IRA, there are no tax consequences for being overly risk adverse...while also being greedy...right now.

 

 

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11683

Posted
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18 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Even though I may be briefly out of the market for a few days if there's a short market downturn,

what's the mechanism to get back into the market?   intestinal fortitude?   Obviously the risk with that strategy is a failure to get back in.

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CooterBrown

CooterBrown 18028

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

what's the mechanism to get back into the market?   intestinal fortitude?   Obviously the risk with that strategy is a failure to get back in.

That is a legitimate sticking point.  I want to make sure my exit point isn't too easily hit on normal market swings but I don't want to to lose 20+%.  As a result, it's hard to pull the trigger.

A quick look at VOO from 2010 to today, there are only a few sustained runs where the closing price is lower than 10% off of the all-time high closing price.  For all of them, if you re-entered the ETF after 3 days of the closing price being within 10% of the all-time high, the price set a new record within a few weeks.  I don't know if that's an actual indicator of when to get back in or if it's just a coincidence since there's so few extended downturns.  Most of the downturns are less than a week except for MAR2020-JUN2020 and APR2022-JUN2023.  

Since I do have enough to retire in that account already, I think erring on the side of wealth protection is probably an okay decision. There are worse things in the world than sitting in a Fidelity cash account earning a bit of interest.

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11683

Posted
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6 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

That is a legitimate sticking point.  I want to make sure my exit point isn't too easily hit on normal market swings but I don't want to to lose 20+%.  As a result, it's hard to pull the trigger.

A quick look at VOO from 2010 to today, there are only a few sustained runs where the closing price is lower than 10% off of the all-time high closing price.  For all of them, if you re-entered the ETF after 3 days of the closing price being within 10% of the all-time high, the price set a new record within a few weeks.  I don't know if that's an actual indicator of when to get back in or if it's just a coincidence since there's so few extended downturns.  Most of the downturns are less than a week except for MAR2020-JUN2020 and APR2022-JUN2023.  

Since I do have enough to retire in that account already, I think erring on the side of wealth protection is probably an okay decision. There are worse things in the world than sitting in a Fidelity cash account earning a bit of interest.

I agree with the sentiment on some cash.  4%plus probably beats inflation over the next 5 years.  You might want to consider some medium term CD's or t-bills.  If its good enough for Warren...

 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15355

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

I'm 7 years from retirement.  My IRA portfolio is aggressive...70% VOO 30% VGT.  Returns have been phenomenal.  However, I don't exactly trust the Trump brain trust to not drive everything into the ditch and set it on fire but I also don't want to miss out on market hubris.  

I'm considering setting a trailing stop limit at either -5% or -10% for both ETFs.  Even though I may be briefly out of the market for a few days if there's a short market downturn, at least I am protecting wealth and, since it's an IRA, there are no tax consequences for being overly risk adverse...while also being greedy...right now.

 

 

I like to keep a 5-10ish % in a 'single stock/single idea' pile in case I need to put that into VXX for a short period of mega-uncertainty.  let the stock do it's thing, then sell it when convenient and buy VXX to hedge the portfolio if need be.  Did it leading up to the election and made a nice 15% gain on the VXX trade.  

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52-80

52-80 19245

Posted
Posted
On 11/17/2024 at 1:57 AM, wackawacka said:

Now I am not sure given the rampant economic uncertainty that is going to be created.

Interesting divergence from the 4 bellweathers of the US consumer economy, with Target and Walmart reporting this week, and Visa and Mastercard reporting last month (pre-election)

Visa: forward growth ~10%

MC: forward growth ~10%

WM: forward growth ~10%

Target: forward growth flat.  stock takes 20% hit in pre-market.

 

3 out of 4 looking rosy is not bad, ill take it.

 

at the low-end, dollar tree and dollar general both expect very modest growth (rather than big jump in cost conscious shoppers). also good sign imo

 

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