Jump to content

Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 15.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

Posted Images

Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21925

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Well, the chart I showed above starts in January 1995.  Every point on each moving average is the (exponentially-weighted) average of the closing price for the previous 121 days (green line) or 252 days (red line).  These correspond to 6 months of closing prices and 12 months of closing prices, respectively.  (Full disclosure:  I think I should have used 126 days, I must have fat-fingered it.  This won't significantly change the results.)

So, on January 1 1995 (if the market was open) it uses the previous 121 & 252 days of closing price data to calculate the 2 averages.  The next day, the first closing price in each moving average gets dropped and the closing price for January 2 1995 gets added, and the averages are recalculated.  So on and so forth up until the present day.

giphy.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Trey3216

Trey3216 15381

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

And, for what it's worth, we are essentially 10% off the all-time high (Sep 21).

Yep, and MSFT & TSLA just crushed their earnings, and F beat as well (and hasn't in forever).  AMD about to report, AMZN tomorrow after the bell.  I believe we may have a short term bottom if AMD results are positive.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Incredulity

Incredulity 11717

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep, and MSFT & TSLA just crushed their earnings, and F beat as well (and hasn't in forever).  AMD about to report, AMZN tomorrow after the bell.  I believe we may have a short term bottom if AMD results are positive.  

Seems no one cares.

I took some bites last week and will again tomorrow.

Blood on the streets......

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captainant

Captainant 27989

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

What expiry did you buy?   Purchase price? 

10/29 expiry @3.56. It's currently at $6.21. I don't see SPY doing really any better tomorrow as it's a post-earnings Thursday, and earnings weren't all that great, but I'm unsure if SPY will fall enough to beat decay

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Trey3216

Trey3216 15381

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Captainant said:

10/29 expiry @3.56. It's currently at $6.21. I don't see SPY doing really any better tomorrow as it's a post-earnings Thursday, and earnings weren't all that great, but I'm unsure if SPY will fall enough to beat decay

Futures are pointing up tomorrow.  Ford, MSFT had really good earnings.  AMZN after the bell tomorrow and they are gonna blow out.   I think we saw some indications of short term capitulation selling today.   I’d sell them 30 minutes after the open or 30 minutes before lunch when the market is figuring out what it wants to do.   Then (if the market is flat or up) I’d look at buying the Oct 31 265 put and sell an equal # of 255’s or 260’s.   The 260’s would give you a 1.50 cost on the spread, but max gain of 3.50.  The 255’s would cost 2.46 with max gain of 7.54 

Edited by Trey3216
Link to comment
Share on other sites
jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46502

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Captainant said:

10/29 expiry @3.56. It's currently at $6.21. I don't see SPY doing really any better tomorrow as it's a post-earnings Thursday, and earnings weren't all that great, but I'm unsure if SPY will fall enough to beat decay

I'd dump 'em, or roll down and out.  That's a nice profit.  Your hedge did its job.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blotto

Blotto 23724

Posted
Posted

I was tempted to sell my QQQ puts(11/16 expiry) right at market close, but decided to hold. In the words of legendary investment guru Carl Spackler...."I don't think the heavy stuff's going to come down for quite a while." Shit could get interesting in the next few weeks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, David Dennison said:

That seems like a completely objective take.

What do you mean? Of course he’s talking his book. That’s the norm. I thought it was interesting contrarian take.   No CR  

I’d love to see the list of equities UTIMCO will be divesting from. If any other big investors follow suit, could cause some things to move. 

Edited by GRHorn
Link to comment
Share on other sites
happyfunball

happyfunball 481

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

What do you mean? Of course he’s talking his book. That’s the norm. I thought it was interesting contrarian take.   No CR  

I’d love to see the list of equities UTIMCO will be divesting from. If any other big investors follow suit, could cause some things to move. 

Bass made UT system buy gold at the top

he also has been betting against Japan for years. He doesn’t understand geopolitical aspects of macro economics 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Trey3216

Trey3216 15381

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, happyfunball said:

Bass made UT system buy gold at the top

he also has been betting against Japan for years. He doesn’t understand geopolitical aspects of macro economics 

In this instance he is correct though.  It's akin to the argument "when China stops buying our debt" that so many uninformed people make.   


China can't afford to stop buying our debt, because if they did, they couldn't feed their burgeoning middle class and they'd completely lose control over their economic system.  That is a fact.  They want to play the bully pulpit in 7 different directions:  Hey we'll charge you tariffs, Well we won't charge you  tariffs but we'll leave the shit on the dock for 6 months so you don't get paid until we say it's cool, well we'll float peg our currency to make it seem stable even though it's actually worth about 50% less than what the market rate shows, and on and on and on. 

Meanwhile, they have a middle class that's growing about 50mm people per year or more.  These people want shit that we have.  So what does that mean?  They have to sell us more shit that we already have (and can't afford) so they can buy the shit that they want from us, or they can buy our debt and like it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bernorange

bernorange 8377

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, happyfunball said:

Bass made UT system buy gold at the top

UTIMCO bought gold in April 2011 at around $1500/toz.  It was roughly in the middle of the run up.  Gold topped out at ~$1900/toz before falling to where it is today.

Edited by bernorange
Link to comment
Share on other sites
GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bernorange said:

FWIW, Rickards has been saying the same things Bass said regarding China's situation and the USA's "Hand" in the trade issue for many months.  Bass isn't on an island with this view.

No not entirely but it’s outside the mainstream I would say. 

Another interesting point about the devaluation of their currency. Most pundits assumed that was intentional and meant to offset tariffs.  You’re starting to see the narrative switch to it being due to capital flight from China, which is not good for them. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Washpark

Washpark 176

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

In this instance he is correct though.  It's akin to the argument "when China stops buying our debt" that so many uninformed people make.   


China can't afford to stop buying our debt, because if they did, they couldn't feed their burgeoning middle class and they'd completely lose control over their economic system.  That is a fact.  They want to play the bully pulpit in 7 different directions:  Hey we'll charge you tariffs, Well we won't charge you  tariffs but we'll leave the shit on the dock for 6 months so you don't get paid until we say it's cool, well we'll float peg our currency to make it seem stable even though it's actually worth about 50% less than what the market rate shows, and on and on and on. 

Meanwhile, they have a middle class that's growing about 50mm people per year or more.  These people want shit that we have.  So what does that mean?  They have to sell us more shit that we already have (and can't afford) so they can buy the shit that they want from us, or they can buy our debt and like it. 

Disagree. PM sent why

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captainant

Captainant 27989

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I'm using up days, like today, to get better entry points for some puts

plays out right, that gives me more capital to buy when the blood is deep ...

I'm actually playing the flipside, looking for cheap calls where the stock is near the bottom resistance and likely to move up. Really just swing trading for shits and giggles though since I've pulled out my tiny portfolio into cash lol

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...