Jump to content

Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 15.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

Posted Images

Anastasis

Anastasis 23711

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

What, you don't think putting a person that had literal brain worms in charge of the FDA isn't gonna make things run smoother?

Lots of reasons for market concern, including his views on DTC advertising and the industry revolving door at the agency. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Willfully Horn

Willfully Horn 8255

Posted
Posted
On 11/16/2024 at 6:57 PM, wackawacka said:

I just convinced myself that I am buy and hold forever. Now I am not sure given the rampant economic uncertainty that is going to be created.

This is what I have advised my kids about their holdings. Current events have me reconsidering.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CooterBrown

CooterBrown 18285

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Willfully Horn said:

This is what I have advised my kids about their holdings. Current events have me reconsidering.

I'm 7 years from retirement.  My IRA portfolio is aggressive...70% VOO 30% VGT.  Returns have been phenomenal.  However, I don't exactly trust the Trump brain trust to not drive everything into the ditch and set it on fire but I also don't want to miss out on market hubris.  

I'm considering setting a trailing stop limit at either -5% or -10% for both ETFs.  Even though I may be briefly out of the market for a few days if there's a short market downturn, at least I am protecting wealth and, since it's an IRA, there are no tax consequences for being overly risk adverse...while also being greedy...right now.

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Incredulity

Incredulity 11873

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Even though I may be briefly out of the market for a few days if there's a short market downturn,

what's the mechanism to get back into the market?   intestinal fortitude?   Obviously the risk with that strategy is a failure to get back in.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
CooterBrown

CooterBrown 18285

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

what's the mechanism to get back into the market?   intestinal fortitude?   Obviously the risk with that strategy is a failure to get back in.

That is a legitimate sticking point.  I want to make sure my exit point isn't too easily hit on normal market swings but I don't want to to lose 20+%.  As a result, it's hard to pull the trigger.

A quick look at VOO from 2010 to today, there are only a few sustained runs where the closing price is lower than 10% off of the all-time high closing price.  For all of them, if you re-entered the ETF after 3 days of the closing price being within 10% of the all-time high, the price set a new record within a few weeks.  I don't know if that's an actual indicator of when to get back in or if it's just a coincidence since there's so few extended downturns.  Most of the downturns are less than a week except for MAR2020-JUN2020 and APR2022-JUN2023.  

Since I do have enough to retire in that account already, I think erring on the side of wealth protection is probably an okay decision. There are worse things in the world than sitting in a Fidelity cash account earning a bit of interest.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Incredulity

Incredulity 11873

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

That is a legitimate sticking point.  I want to make sure my exit point isn't too easily hit on normal market swings but I don't want to to lose 20+%.  As a result, it's hard to pull the trigger.

A quick look at VOO from 2010 to today, there are only a few sustained runs where the closing price is lower than 10% off of the all-time high closing price.  For all of them, if you re-entered the ETF after 3 days of the closing price being within 10% of the all-time high, the price set a new record within a few weeks.  I don't know if that's an actual indicator of when to get back in or if it's just a coincidence since there's so few extended downturns.  Most of the downturns are less than a week except for MAR2020-JUN2020 and APR2022-JUN2023.  

Since I do have enough to retire in that account already, I think erring on the side of wealth protection is probably an okay decision. There are worse things in the world than sitting in a Fidelity cash account earning a bit of interest.

I agree with the sentiment on some cash.  4%plus probably beats inflation over the next 5 years.  You might want to consider some medium term CD's or t-bills.  If its good enough for Warren...

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Trey3216

Trey3216 15452

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

I'm 7 years from retirement.  My IRA portfolio is aggressive...70% VOO 30% VGT.  Returns have been phenomenal.  However, I don't exactly trust the Trump brain trust to not drive everything into the ditch and set it on fire but I also don't want to miss out on market hubris.  

I'm considering setting a trailing stop limit at either -5% or -10% for both ETFs.  Even though I may be briefly out of the market for a few days if there's a short market downturn, at least I am protecting wealth and, since it's an IRA, there are no tax consequences for being overly risk adverse...while also being greedy...right now.

 

 

I like to keep a 5-10ish % in a 'single stock/single idea' pile in case I need to put that into VXX for a short period of mega-uncertainty.  let the stock do it's thing, then sell it when convenient and buy VXX to hedge the portfolio if need be.  Did it leading up to the election and made a nice 15% gain on the VXX trade.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
52-80

52-80 19377

Posted
Posted
On 11/17/2024 at 1:57 AM, wackawacka said:

Now I am not sure given the rampant economic uncertainty that is going to be created.

Interesting divergence from the 4 bellweathers of the US consumer economy, with Target and Walmart reporting this week, and Visa and Mastercard reporting last month (pre-election)

Visa: forward growth ~10%

MC: forward growth ~10%

WM: forward growth ~10%

Target: forward growth flat.  stock takes 20% hit in pre-market.

 

3 out of 4 looking rosy is not bad, ill take it.

 

at the low-end, dollar tree and dollar general both expect very modest growth (rather than big jump in cost conscious shoppers). also good sign imo

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bborange

bborange 10371

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Parliament said:

So what all is the Surly 99% gonna spend their 2024 stock market #gainz on?  Personally I have my eye on a new Garmin smart watch.

One year closer to walking away from work.   Next year is my last one 

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Drool 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • 3 weeks later...
bernorange

bernorange 8385

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

AVGO up 29% TODAY!!!  What the hell, that's shit is supposed to happen to things like IBRX, not a company with a Trillion dollar market cap. 

...

Clearly, market conditions are too tight and the Fed needs to cut rates.  /sarc

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SaucyJack

SaucyJack 3519

Posted
Posted
On 3/26/2018 at 8:39 AM, Yarbr said:

Figure page one needs a reference point.

Dow 23,530

S&P 2,590

Nasdaq 6,990

 

On 3/26/2018 at 10:17 AM, Llano Estacado said:

Also for the record the original thread title comes from a -2% day on Feb 3, 2014

DJIA: 15,372

Nasdaq: 3,996

S&P: 1,741

think I'll hold for another 10 years.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...