Markets still falling like whoa

[Parliament 14593]

Gonna hafta cancel my Tree Fiddy sub.

[WBT 20963]

fuckin' JPow

[Hefeweizen 5443]

7 hours ago, WBT said:

fuckin' JPow

The guy landed the 747 on an aircraft carrier in my opinion.  I don’t think blaming him is rational.  I know people like to have someone to blame for the market but it’s frothy as hell and it’s super concentrated.

[Captainant 28504]

2 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

The guy landed the 747 on an aircraft carrier in my opinion.  I don’t think blaming him is rational.  I know people like to have someone to blame for the market but it’s frothy as hell and it’s super concentrated.

If Taiwan were to be invaded by China, it would crash our economy. Effectively every cutting edge piece of production silicon comes out of there right now, and losing access to that globally unique manufacturing would gut Nvidia and every other entity that's been leaning hard into AI

[UTPhil2006 3930]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

The guy landed the 747 on an aircraft carrier in my opinion.  I don’t think blaming him is rational.  I know people like to have someone to blame for the market but it’s frothy as hell and it’s super concentrated.

I can and I will! 

[Wally Fairway 5674]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

The guy landed the 747 on an aircraft carrier in my opinion.  I don’t think blaming him is rational.  I know people like to have someone to blame for the market but it’s frothy as hell and it’s super concentrated.

The problem is he can't get the 747 off the deck of an aircraft carrier

[WBT 20963]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

The guy landed the 747 on an aircraft carrier in my opinion.  I don’t think blaming him is rational.  I know people like to have someone to blame for the market but it’s frothy as hell and it’s super concentrated.

It was mostly a joke and a comment on how the market is so divorced from actual fundamentals.  My only complaint with the fed is they waited too long to start raising rates.

[Wally Fairway 5674]

On 11/1/2024 at 10:17 AM, Wally Fairway said:

market saved - purchased my first SPY puts this year 1-31-25 expiry, that give time for all the post election dumbfuckery to occur

So while y'all blame JPow, the real guilty party is me...because I sold those puts on Monday. Only lost about 85%, but didn't with I have another that are 3-31-25 expiry. So let me know when you want the next drop, and I'll see if I can accommodate.

I meant to post when I was selling, but got caught up on my travels to Houston.

[horn4life 3838]

Had my best day ever yesterday.  As I moved 1/3 of our risky account into UVIX, to hedge against the huge run up of my PLTR.  Both managed to go up yesterday.  I am just trying to get to January to not eat a big dick on short term gains, with a tax bill in 4 months.  I'd rather get a year and 4 months use before paying the tax man.

I bought PLTR based on my long term view that there will be added value, based upon it's secure environment work.  I think commercial accounts will find that same level of protection attractive.  The UVIX allows me to ride things out with PLTR.  

But we just got a look at the Trump Presidency.  A house of Representatives that will ONLY pass bills without any Democratic help... for the first several failed bill passage attempts.  What we are seeing now is simply a completely unforced error by the incoming administration.  The fact they thought the Dems would simply roll over and give Trump what he wants... when he can't get his own party to pass it?  Snapshot of the future.   But you can at least see a degree of predictability in that particular aspect on unpredictability.

What is going to roil the markets is when Trump's largely unqualified appointees are confirmed.  The stability that we have grown accustomed to will be tugged at from every direction, and WTF could be more "uncertain" than that.  I was down about 20% on my UVIX, and hate that I had to dip into margin to maintain all my PLTR stock and options.  But I figured the downside insurance was worth the risk.  When I hear that nearly evey pundit and investor is sure the trees will grow to the sky (because of FOMO) it's time to hedge.

UVIX my friends... Risky as fuck.  But in my case designed to protect some pretty large short term gains that I would rather hold onto.  The self inficted wound of simply not allowing the debt ceiling to be extended with a short term deal to provide stability was incredibly fucking stupid.  Especially coming on the back of Powell's speech.  I expect more wise decision making going forward!  And as I told my wife,  "we might bake $70K on UVIX in the next couple months."  I might need to change that to "by the inauguration."

 

 

Edited Friday at 02:02 PM by horn4life

[Captainant 28504]

2 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Had my best day ever yesterday.  As I moved 1/3 of our risky account into UVIX, to hedge against the huge run up of my PLTR.  Both managed to go up yesterday.  I am just trying to get to January to not eat a big dick on short term gains, with a tax bill in 4 months.  I'd rather get a year and 4 months use before paying the tax man.

IMO both those bets seem good.

✅ Oligarch's primary venture backing the incoming administration 

✅ High market volatility due to uncertainty 

[immamac 44302]

On 12/19/2024 at 6:55 AM, Captainant said:

If Taiwan were to be invaded by China, it would crash our economy. Effectively every cutting edge piece of production silicon comes out of there right now, and losing access to that globally unique manufacturing would gut Nvidia and every other entity that's been leaning hard into AI

AI doesn't actually drive economic productivity or growth. Microsoft, Meta and a few others are responsible for nearly all of the nvidia revenue and reliance on the latest nodes for operations and products that are mainstream aren't as heavily reliant on Taiwan. 

Lots of 10nm+ or 16nm+ stuff still very very fucking useful. Russia isn't in the stone ages and they don't even have any 26nm technology available to them at this point. 

If anything the greatest rug pull in history is about to happen. 

[horn4life 3838]

PS - I lost money betting on NVDA at earnings not cashing out on the initial bump.  I also lost money Buying TSLA 350 put before the election.  Figuring his buyers were gonna dry up.  But the surge from Trump and his clear ability to influence policy to his benefit were crazy to keep betting against. So licked my wounds and took my losses.

TSLA is interesting to me.  As I wonder what would happen if Elon like so many, falls out of favor and becomes... "an idiot."  Then does TSLA plummet?  No liberal buyers, and MAGA investors bailing?  

I really want to diversify but thats what 401K's are for.  Instead I just moved the 401K to like 83% bonds Monday so hopefully those gains can be preserved.  

12 minutes ago, Captainant said:

IMO both those bets seem good.

✅ Oligarch's primary venture backing the incoming administration 

✅ High market volatility due to uncertainty 

Hope you are right.  I think PLTR is going to get a much larger chunk of our military budget especially if the DOGE boys have a say in influencing policy.  Peter Thiel one of Trump's earliest backers should likely see favor.  If you think personal favor might garner political and purse string influence.

Edited Friday at 02:18 PM by horn4life

[horn4life 3838]

7 minutes ago, immamac said:

AI doesn't actually drive economic productivity or growth. Microsoft, Meta and a few others are responsible for nearly all of the nvidia revenue and reliance on the latest nodes for operations and products that are mainstream aren't as heavily reliant on Taiwan. 

Lots of 10nm+ or 16nm+ stuff still very very fucking useful. Russia isn't in the stone ages and they don't even have any 26nm technology available to them at this point. 

If anything the greatest rug pull in history is about to happen. 

The amount of wealth created and the end of the year, with new instability.  But until a couple days ago, it was nearly impossible to find anyone saying that the markets were going to retreat in 2025.  Trailing Stops... and hedges my be your best friends the next couple months.

[Captainant 28504]

4 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Hope you are right.  I think PLTR is going to get a much larger chunk of our military budget especially if the DOGE boys have a say in influencing policy.  Peter Thiel one of Trump's earliest backers should likely see favor.  If you think personal favor might garner political and purse string influence.

We russia now, boys. Invest in the presidents friends and allies, pick the winners and losers!

[horn4life 3838]

1 minute ago, Captainant said:

We russia now, boys. Invest in the presidents friends and allies, pick the winners and losers!

 So Short TSLA when Elon is cast out?

[Foosters 18267]

2 minutes ago, horn4life said:

 So Short TSLA when Elon is cast out?

The window?

[horn4life 3838]

On UVIX - DO NOT do what I did and buy a lot at once.  It's going to pull back and provide a buying opportunity, as I imagine a last minute deal will happened to avert a shutdown.  But I doubt it's going to pull more than half way back, so maybe a low 4's bottom?  

[Dbeasy 15561]

2 hours ago, horn4life said:

But until a couple days ago, it was nearly impossible to find anyone saying that the markets were going to retreat in 2025. 

I don’t know who you listen to for market forecasts, but the market is at one of the highest CAPE ratios in history. Buffet is sitting at high levels of cash, and a whole waft of investors, like myself, are bracing for the inevitable major market pullback that will definitely happen once the new administration comes in and starts dealing with the deficit, social security, and Medicare. 

Pain is coming my friends. And many investors know it.  You can’t listen to pundits or investment advisors. They are all compronised. They make money regardless of the environment so they will often tout upside over down side.   

 

 

[Incredulity 11874]

1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

will definitely happen once the new administration comes in

 

“Definitely” and the market are diametrically opposed 

[WBT 20963]

We're back?

[jdhorn92 1594]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

I don’t know who you listen to for market forecasts, but the market is at one of the highest CAPE ratios in history. Buffet is sitting at high levels of cash, and a whole waft of investors, like myself, are bracing for the inevitable major market pullback that will definitely happen once the new administration comes in and starts dealing with the deficit, social security, and Medicare. 

Pain is coming my friends. And many investors know it.  You can’t listen to pundits or investment advisors. They are all compronised. They make money regardless of the environment so they will often tout upside over down side.   

 

 

I dont know about that...everyone was predicting a deep recession too as rates continued to go up, inflation was stubborn, wars raging,  domestic political climate uncertainty and a major housing shortage. 

The consumer is resilient.  Paper wealth in retirement accounts are at all time highs, home equity wealth makes people feel 'better' about their standing.  If you want a job you can find one, at better pay too as its a worker's market.  Lots of cash earning 5% will have to go somewhere in 2025. 

Now rates are ebbing, inflation number was pointing positively and if you believe Goolsby, we are headed to 2%.   I dont think '25 will match 23-24, but 10% in the S&P is doable.  If Trump lets you write off car interest, watch for that industry to blow up.  More line workers in the rust belt, manufacturing states.

[Dbeasy 15561]

2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

 

“Definitely” and the market are diametrically opposed 

 

35 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:

I dont know about that...everyone was predicting a deep recession too as rates continued to go up, inflation was stubborn, wars raging,  domestic political climate uncertainty and a major housing shortage. 

The consumer is resilient.  Paper wealth in retirement accounts are at all time highs, home equity wealth makes people feel 'better' about their standing.  If you want a job you can find one, at better pay too as its a worker's market.  Lots of cash earning 5% will have to go somewhere in 2025. 

Now rates are ebbing, inflation number was pointing positively and if you believe Goolsby, we are headed to 2%.   I dont think '25 will match 23-24, but 10% in the S&P is doable.  If Trump lets you write off car interest, watch for that industry to blow up.  More line workers in the rust belt, manufacturing states.

Y’all are absolutely right. Anything can happen in 2025 and “definitely” is the wrong word. We all thought the internet bubble would pop by 1998 and it took another two years.  With Trump in office he could easily just fiddle around like his first term, do nothing, and the market could keep popping up another 12 months while the debt and deficits get even more concerning.  The eventual recession caused by dealing with the deficit could get delayed into later years. 

My only original point was responding to the post that said everyone is forecasting a good 2025. There are quite a few respected financial people that aren’t. 

[Wally Fairway 5674]

On 12/19/2024 at 10:02 AM, Wally Fairway said:

So while y'all blame JPow, the real guilty party is me...because I sold those puts on Monday. Only lost about 85%, but didn't with I have another that are 3-31-25 expiry. So let me know when you want the next drop, and I'll see if I can accommodate.

I meant to post when I was selling, but got caught up on my travels to Houston.

Don't worry  - I just got home from Houston and reloaded my puts with some 5/31/25 $580 strikes; I did this so I can crash the market again, when I sell them.

Merry Christmas ya filthy animals

[horn4life 3838]

Well I made a shit ton yesterday, and  like a dumbass didn't have multiple trailing stops on the UVIX retreat. I was so pumped my hedge worked I forgot to hedge back much on it.  I guess that's one dumb way to avoid cap gains... Argh.  What a dumbass...

When I say "everybody," I mean "most of the fund guys, bankers, analysts, you name it on TV  Not that they all were not concerned about valuations, but bullishness along with the term "animal spirits" were most prevalent lately.  Plenty of contrarians, but I am just saying that if talking heads were the big board you would not see much red.  Buffet sitting on his pile of cash was one of the reasons I started pulling back my risk.  But fuck, I can't start selling when I think PLTR still has some legs.  I did sell some January calls since it had a big run up today. (something I should have done with UVIX yesterday dumbass). I have calls to replace the shares farther out, but I got most of these shares selling calls, and buying with covered calls.

I still wonder about a government shutdown.  When Speaker Johnson says, “I’ve got one more little detail to work out, but we should be having a vote here soon.” he said, adding, “We will not have a government shutdown.”  I always wonder who it is he is talking to? 

 

[Captainant 28504]

5 hours ago, Incredulity said:

 

“Definitely” and the market are diametrically opposed 

If the planned tarrifs go into effect, it's not going to do happy things for your holdings unless you're onto one of the Party oligarch symbols

[Incredulity 11874]

52 minutes ago, Captainant said:

If

There’s that word again