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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Superhero

Superhero 8842

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, happyfunball said:

You, Kyle, and Sushihorn are probably still shorting netflix

Lol. Sushi is why I got rid of my NFLX position many years ago. You know, before than ran up 2100%.

Then again, Sushi was also why I got out of most of my stocks when DJIA was at 12,000, instead of riding it down to 6,000.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15356

Posted
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2 minutes ago, happyfunball said:

I think FANGs are expensive. I see a rotation into defensive stocks and expect selling of growth stocks.

They could be, but they all just pulled back 10-20% and are slaughtering their earnings/raising guidance.  I'm saying it right now, I think yesterday was a short term bottom in the market and we push back to ATH by the end of Q4 and this bull market rides for at least another 18 months (barring any black swan event).  

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happyfunball

happyfunball 481

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

They could be, but they all just pulled back 10-20% and are slaughtering their earnings/raising guidance.  I'm saying it right now, I think yesterday was a short term bottom in the market and we push back to ATH by the end of Q4 and this bull market rides for at least another 18 months (barring any black swan event).  

Let me put it this way. Institutional investors are taking their profits and deploying into defensive, undervalued stocks is what I am hearing...

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15356

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, happyfunball said:

Let me put it this way. Institutional investors are taking their profits and deploying into defensive, undervalued stocks is what I am hearing...

Some are, some aren't.  There's a bunch of really good Twitter handles that enable you to read through 13F filings pretty quickly, and across broad spectra.  For every person I've read going towards value or defensive names, there's 3 saying there is no value in value, and it's too early for defensive.    

 

That's not to say that those people are right or wrong, just what I've seen.   

 

And yes, if Goldman comes out and starts issuing buy ratings on FAANG or sell ratings on Defensive names, I'm probably reevaluating my thoughts.  

Edited by Trey3216
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HouTex

HouTex 1894

Posted
Posted

Per my Yahoo Finance feed it said AMZN reported earnings per share of $5.75 on revenue of $56.6 billion and Bloomberg expected $3.14 per share and $57.07 billion of revenue.  It also said that the forward looking guidance was lower than expectations.  Still, they killed the earnings per share expectation and just missed the revenue number.  It seems to me that the forward looking guidance is the cause. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15356

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5 minutes ago, HouTex said:

Per my Yahoo Finance feed it said AMZN reported earnings per share of $5.75 on revenue of $56.6 billion and Bloomberg expected $3.14 per share and $57.07 billion of revenue.  It also said that the forward looking guidance was lower than expectations.  Still, they killed the earnings per share expectation and just missed the revenue number.  It seems to me that the forward looking guidance is the cause. 

Yep 

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Blotto

Blotto 23575

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Posted

Forward 4th qtr guidance of $66.5B-$72.5B vs consensus expectations of $73.8B. The low side of their guidance would be a fair deviation from expectations. Also last years Q4 revenue was $60.5B (38% gain from previous year), so the low side of guidance would be a big slowdown in growth.

Personnally I believe they will crush Q4 revenue as they make it so fucking easy to holiday shop. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19224

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10 hours ago, Blotto said:

Forward 4th qtr guidance of $66.5B-$72.5B vs consensus expectations of $73.8B. The low side of their guidance would be a fair deviation from expectations. Also last years Q4 revenue was $60.5B (38% gain from previous year), so the low side of guidance would be a big slowdown in growth.

Personnally I believe they will crush Q4 revenue as they make it so fucking easy to holiday shop. 

An actual legit guidance range from AMZN?  I remember back in the day when they would give a stupid range like "Our Q3 revenues are expected to be somewhere between $0 and $1,000,kabillion."

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26553

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1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

Good thing it wasn’t too hot and that CPI leveled.    FED could pause

Good gloss from Yahoo finance, of all places ends with very high quality take from Shepherdson:

Quote

Personal consumption grew by 4% during the third quarter, better than the 3.3% pace expected by economists and faster than the 3.8% pace of consumption seen during the second quarter.

In its release, the BEA said, “The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, state and local government spending, federal government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.”

Government spending rose at a pace of 3.3% during the third quarter, the fastest since the first quarter of 2016. Nonresidential fixed investment, which broadly captures business spending, grew at a pace of just 0.8% during the third quarter, the slowest since the fourth quarter of 2016. The build in inventories, which many economists had expected to see during the quarter, rose at the fastest pace since 2015.

Bloomberg’s U.S. chief economist Carl Riccadonna said following the report that, “The composition of growth in the third quarter has some important implications. The economy has reverted back to the `same old’ model of consumers accounting for most of the growth. Supply-siders will be disappointed to see business fixed investment essentially stalling out after a robust first half.”

In Riccadonna’s view, unless there are more tax or another change in fiscal policy, growth in the second and third quarter’s appears to be boosted by a “sugar high” from tax cuts rather than creating a new path for economic growth.

Ian Shepherson, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said of Friday’s report, “In one line: Strong GDP growth hides soft capex and massive trade deterioration.”

 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15356

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50 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Good gloss from Yahoo finance, of all places ends with very high quality take from Shepherdson:

 

A lot of Capex spending is tied to rates.  As they increase, capital expenditures are going to slow.  We are seeing that live (Shit, look at the housing starts #'s we see every month).  Fed should be eyeing a plateau here for a bit.  

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26553

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7 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

A lot of Capex spending is tied to rates.  As they increase, capital expenditures are going to slow.  We are seeing that live (Shit, look at the housing starts #'s we see every month).  Fed should be eyeing a plateau here for a bit.  

I don't think they will or can, for two reasons: First, the Fed has already signalled multiple times that a december rate hike was on the way, inluding statements made by Richard Clarida yesterday. Second, given unprecedented criticism of the Fed by the president the governors are likely concerned for the credibility of the institution as a nonpolitical actor.

We are in for at least one more hike, I bet. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15356

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Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

I don't think they will, for two reasons: First, the Fed has already signalled multiple times that a december rate hike was on the way, inluding statements made by Richard Clarida yesterday. Second, given unprecedented criticism of the Fed by the president the governors are likely concerned for the credibility of the institution as a nonpolitical actor.

No doubt they're raising in Dec.  

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Captainant

Captainant 27769

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10 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

AMZN still getting its teeth kicked in.  Craziness 

Gonna be a fun time to buy calls soon. But I'm also v biased in favor of AMZN so don't listen to what I say lol. I think it won't go any lower than 1400, but it's been flirting with being oversold for all of October. If it goes below $1500 it's gonna be quite the buying opportunity.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15356

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Just now, happyfunball said:

Was one of the most crowded trades so assume every hedge fund is selling down.

Yeah, but 25% off highs is a pretty drastic trade for a company growing like Amazon still is.  Now trading at 30 2020 estimated earnings.  That's pretty damn attractive

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15356

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1 minute ago, Captainant said:

Gonna be a fun time to buy calls soon. But I'm also v biased in favor of AMZN so don't listen to what I say lol. I think it won't go any lower than 1400, but it's been flirting with being oversold for all of October. If it goes below $1500 it's gonna be quite the buying opportunity.

Yep 

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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2282

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I have some basic questions . I have started to dabble a bit in some individual stocks and have had some success (luck). Mostly it is with amazon . Bought at 1702 and sold 1785. Bought 1615. Sold at 1670. All of this in the past week. My question is how are support and resistance levels calculated. I have found some online but are they accurate? Are these levels reliable ? Is there a site you can direct me to that has these values ? My next question is I have heard of buy walls. Is there a site that shows volume of These orders. Say a buy wall at 20k for the Dow Jones. Or a strong buy wall for the nasdaq at 7000? I am currently on the sidelines but have been strongly thinking of investing not only short but long term (1 year or so) lately. Thanks

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52-80

52-80 19246

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Posted
6 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

I have some basic questions . I have started to dabble a bit in some individual stocks and have had some success (luck). Mostly it is with amazon . Bought at 1702 and sold 1785. Bought 1615. Sold at 1670. All of this in the past week. My question is how are support and resistance levels calculated. I have found some online but are they accurate? Are these levels reliable ? Is there a site you can direct me to that has these values ? My next question is I have heard of buy walls. Is there a site that shows volume of These orders. Say a buy wall at 20k for the Dow Jones. Or a strong buy wall for the nasdaq at 7000? I am currently on the sidelines but have been strongly thinking of investing not only short but long term (1 year or so) lately. Thanks

Yes.  there is a website that tells you accurately and reliably support and resistance levels, so you'll know precisely and unfailingly what are the floor and ceiling prices of a security.  

And 6% of the time, it works every time. 

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Captainant

Captainant 27769

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11 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

I have some basic questions . I have started to dabble a bit in some individual stocks and have had some success (luck). Mostly it is with amazon . Bought at 1702 and sold 1785. Bought 1615. Sold at 1670. All of this in the past week. My question is how are support and resistance levels calculated. I have found some online but are they accurate? Are these levels reliable ? Is there a site you can direct me to that has these values ? My next question is I have heard of buy walls. Is there a site that shows volume of These orders. Say a buy wall at 20k for the Dow Jones. Or a strong buy wall for the nasdaq at 7000? I am currently on the sidelines but have been strongly thinking of investing not only short but long term (1 year or so) lately. Thanks

Truthfully, most of the support and resistance and pivot point info people say are just highly educated guesses based on past trends, market forces, and correlating different calculated signals. I personally use barchart.com since they have a "traders cheat sheet" (here's Amazon's for example) and I like their charting tools and it's free. 

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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2282

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Posted

I would buy amzn at 1500 right now but I’m scared to death of fb earnings after the bell. I mean seriously the stocks just can’t go down to 0 in 1 session ..... right? I guess it’s that plus the 2% eu tax on revenue and the new China tariffs that scares me a little right now . I think I’m gonna pass for today...

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