Markets still falling like whoa

[UTGrad98 2,282]

I’m looking for a website like this but for stocks . For those who have dabbled in crypto currency it’s the gdax exchange. it shows all of the market and stop / limit orders for a coin. 

is there something out there like this? 

 

And no it has been many months since I tried crypto trading . It was fun though and I was a huge pussy and only stayed in about 2 weeks before getting out. I loved this tool though 

[Bozo_Casanova 26,553]

I’m looking for a website like this but for stocks . For those who have dabbled in crypto currency it’s the gdax exchange. it shows all of the market and stop / limit orders for a coin. 

is there something out there like this? 

 

And no it has been many months since I tried crypto trading . It was fun though and I was a huge pussy and only stayed in about 2 weeks before getting out. I loved this tool though 

Think or Swim, maybe?

[Trey3216 15,356]

5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Think or Swim, maybe?

You’re gonna pay more for Level II quotes 

[NowThis 931]

42 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

The implied open right now is flat.  

how do we find that?

[Tailgate 3,023]

Turn your devices off and stay strong.

[Trey3216 15,356]

You either take the futures price and subtract fair value or you find a site that has real-time futures that take into acct the session that just closed.  

CNBC’s phone app has futures that accurately portray tomorrow’s expectation.   DOW is -27 and NAS is -6.5 right now 

Edited October 29, 2018 by Trey3216

[Tailgate 3,023]

Tax loss harvesting is a good idea right now if you can do it. Which is staying strong and taking advantage of drop...but not leaving market.

[Trey3216 15,356]

1 minute ago, Tailgate said:

Tax loss harvesting is a good idea right now if you can do it. Which is staying strong and taking advantage of drop...but not leaving market.

Yep, you can do it now and still buy back the same positions before Dec 1 without violating white wash 

[hornbri 1,406]

7 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

Tax loss harvesting is a good idea right now if you can do it. Which is staying strong and taking advantage of drop...but not leaving market.

I just did that my self, going to save a bit in taxes. 

[UTGrad98 2,282]

Is anyone else looking at possible head and shoulders patterns? If you move the amazon chart out 5 years you notice a distinct pattern forming. Same with the nasdaq and many other stocks and indices. Amazon would need to head down to around 1400 then would likely get a bounce as my dumb ass is not the only person noticing this. It would bounce up to roughly 1550 or so then crater. Spy would only need to go to around 258. 

My assumption is that no head and shoulders pattern has ever had to deal with Donald trump as president before so the numbers will most likely be off. All very interesting when you are on the sidelines waiting for an entry point . 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Tax loss harvesting is a good idea right now if you can do it. Which is staying strong and taking advantage of drop...but not leaving market.

TTLP?

[Fudge Nuggets 19,224]

8 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

You’re gonna pay more for Level II quotes 

Level II quotes are built into the platform.  Open an account and you have access to them. 

[Wally Fairway 5,586]

GE, once one of the blueist of blue chip stocks, today announced the cut their dividend from 12¢ to 1¢
And the stock, premarket low is $11.10, from an all-time high in 2000 of $60, to a 2007 high of $42, to a 2016 high of $33 to today.

Lesson is - don't be deceived by name recognition or past performance.

Thankfully this isn't the investment that I had to force my dad (87 years old) to dump last year. He was holding an "name" long-term stock for it's dividend; he had over 60% of his portfolio in T. Which, thankfully he sold in 12/17 around $35 as it is now under $30. It is crazy talking to him and all he cared about was the dividend, and his argument is that they had always paid and increased the dividend. I kept telling him, always right up until they don't.

[nycHorn 3,041]

15 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep, you can do it now and still buy back the same positions before Dec 1 without violating white wash 

Sorry, newb question here:  So if I sell a stock to harvest a tax loss today, I can buy it back after 30 days to get it back in my portfolio without violating the white wash rule?  Is there a significance to the Dec 1 date you mentioned?  Thanks.

[Trey3216 15,356]

3 minutes ago, nycHorn said:

Sorry, newb question here:  So if I sell a stock to harvest a tax loss today, I can buy it back after 30 days to get it back in my portfolio without violating the white wash rule?  Is there a significance to the Dec 1 date you mentioned?  Thanks.

The 30 days is the correct answer, Dec 1 is more than 30 days away.  Was using it as an arbitrary measuring stick so one wouldn't have to think about counting.  

[Viking 301]

2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Thankfully this isn't the investment that I had to force my dad (87 years old) to dump last year. He was holding an "name" long-term stock for it's dividend; he had over 60% of his portfolio in T. Which, thankfully he sold in 12/17 around $35 as it is now under $30. It is crazy talking to him and all he cared about was the dividend, and his argument is that they had always paid and increased the dividend. I kept telling him, always right up until they don't.

I can sort of see the appeal of dividend companies for the olds.

Did you look into moving him into a dividend fund/etf like Vanguard's VHDYX or VYM?

[Trey3216 15,356]

2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

GE, once one of the blueist of blue chip stocks, today announced the cut their dividend from 12¢ to 1¢
And the stock, premarket low is $11.10, from an all-time high in 2000 of $60, to a 2007 high of $42, to a 2016 high of $33 to today.

Lesson is - don't be deceived by name recognition or past performance.

Thankfully this isn't the investment that I had to force my dad (87 years old) to dump last year. He was holding an "name" long-term stock for it's dividend; he had over 60% of his portfolio in T. Which, thankfully he sold in 12/17 around $35 as it is now under $30. It is crazy talking to him and all he cared about was the dividend, and his argument is that they had always paid and increased the dividend. I kept telling him, always right up until they don't.

I actually like T in this range.  The Time Warner deal will drastically improve their coverage ratio.  

[happyfunball 481]

I bought GE around $12. Sum of parts analysis was compelling but will be a hold play for a while as they go through restructuring.  

[Wally Fairway 5,586]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

I can sort of see the appeal of dividend companies for the olds.

Did you look into moving him into a dividend fund/etf like Vanguard's VHDYX or VYM?

Yeah - DVY and some SCHD, but I'm trying to get him to reallocate, because at 87 he has enough capital that if he were to put 50% into some high quality corp bonds it would more than cover his spending ability. But he likes to "play" the market; I keep telling him that if his investments were to lose 20% or more in a correction that it is a real loss to him (and eventually to my brothers and me) because 5 years is a long-term horizon for him (more than likely in 5 years or less I'll be closing out his positions and disbursing funds from his estate).
He is by no means rich or even well off, but he is comfortable and I'd hate to see that change in a market correction.

Given my own choices, with 50% of his funds, I'd pick a small ladder of bonds for him to own that would mature out over the next 4-5 years.

[Red Six 131]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

I can sort of see the appeal of dividend companies for the olds.

Did you look into moving him into a dividend fund/etf like Vanguard's VHDYX or VYM?

Those funds don't have a significantly better dividend than more broad-based funds, e.g., Total Market (VTSMX) and S&P 500 (VFINX), which give you better capital appreciation.

[Wally Fairway 5,586]

24 minutes ago, Red Six said:

Those funds don't have a significantly better dividend than more broad-based funds, e.g., Total Market (VTSMX) and S&P 500 (VFINX), which give you better capital appreciation.

They also give you more potential for capital erosion - the S&P being market weighted the FANG+ stocks will affect it significantly in both directions.

[happyfunball 481]

 

[Wally Fairway 5,586]

Here is my market summary for October (recognizing there is 1 day remaining)

[bernorange 8,363]

Rickards published a bit on Monday claiming that if the Fed doesn't play ball with Trump/Mnuchin in weakening the dollar, Trump might pressure the Treasury to utilize the ESF for market interventions to weaken the dollar.

Quote

...

The euro will break out of that trading range toward the upside ($1.20–1.30) over the next few months. This will be the result of a possible Fed pause in rate hikes as the U.S. economy weakens, continued determination by the ECB to tighten policy and possible intervention by the U.S. Treasury.

Meanwhile, a weaker dollar will give the U.S. another growth spurt after the 2018 tax cuts to help propel Trump’s reelection prospects for 2020.

https://dailyreckoning.com/be-prepared-for-a-cheaper-dollar/

Sorry for bringing a political tangent to the thread, but politics is intertwined with the markets where monetary policy is concerned.  The Fed has given every indication that they are going to raise rates again, a weaker dollar doesn't seem likely without some intervention from the Treasury or foreign central banks.

[Trey3216 15,356]

Bought calls in AMZN yesterday.  10 weekly 1525's and 10 weekly 1600's.  They're up nicely today.  My FB calls I bought, 200 weekly 160's, are getting theta crushed today.   Same options were trading at $2.00 yesterday when the stock was at 145.  It's at 155 today and are trading at .65.  Nothing would make me laugh more than a 3 day rally though.  Seeing it at 170 friday would make my week.   

[Blotto 23,575]

When Amazon ducked under 1500 on Monday, I took a gamble on AMZN weekly 1600 calls. Was going into meetings this morning when the stock was climbing, so I put in a sell order at $40, a completely arbitrary number on my part. Those fuckers peaked at $40.10. Better to be lucky than good sometimes.

[Trey3216 15,356]

1 minute ago, Blotto said:

When Amazon ducked under 1500 on Monday, I took a gamble on AMZN weekly 1600 calls. Was going into meetings this morning when the stock was climbing, so I put in a sell order at $40, a completely arbitrary number on my part. Those fuckers peaked at $40.10. Better to be lucky than good sometimes.

I bought the 1525’s for $31.50/ and the 1600’s for $11.50.   Sold the 1525’s for 90 and the 1600’s for 35.  

 

Bought 20 1650’s right before the bell for 5.70.   Total gamble at this point but any follow through during the session tomorrow and/or big number from AAPL after the bell will our this on a steamship to 1700 

[Tailgate 3,023]

Looking forward to the AAPL call tomorrow.

[Trey3216 15,356]

11 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

Looking forward to the AAPL call tomorrow.

It could seriously make or break the market.  A great report and call could confirm a short term bottom was established Monday.  A bad one could send us down a pretty ugly path. 

[UTGrad98 2,282]

I’m not sure I understand what is considered good or bad. It seems to me both google and amzn at least had earnings as good as Facebook but without Facebooks baggage yet the markets plunged with the former and for some reason sparked a rally after Facebook released their earnings. Was the marker just tired of selling when Facebook released earnings or was there something fundamentally better in their earnings than google and amzn?

[Tailgate 3,023]

4 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It could seriously make or break the market.  A great report and call could confirm a short term bottom was established Monday.  A bad one could send us down a pretty ugly path. 

I doubt we have any ‘bad’ news especially looking at what they did last quarter. So strong in so many areas and services are continuing to grow. Tim also mentions China in the first few minutes of every presentation I’ve seen recently. The growth of Apple products in that massive market seems to be doing what it did here in U.S. when the market realized how user friendly and incredible their products and eco-system are (Adios PC and Android). Tuesday he said 51% of Mac buyers are new to the Mac. And, of those...76% are from China.

I’ve been bullish on Apple a very long time and don’t see them slowing to an worrying levels anytime soon. I believe there are a couple breakthrough products we will see in the next few years that will continue to drive impressive growth at a company with a still very attractive P/E.

There is a reason Buffet finally jumped in head first in AAPL.

[Trey3216 15,356]

25 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

I doubt we have any ‘bad’ news especially looking at what they did last quarter. So strong in so many areas and services are continuing to grow. Tim also mentions China in the first few minutes of every presentation I’ve seen recently. The growth of Apple products in that massive market seems to be doing what it did here in U.S. when the market realized how user friendly and incredible their products and eco-system are (Adios PC and Android). Tuesday he said 51% of Mac buyers are new to the Mac. And, of those...76% are from China.

I’ve been bullish on Apple a very long time and don’t see them slowing to an worrying levels anytime soon. I believe there are a couple breakthrough products we will see in the next few years that will continue to drive impressive growth at a company with a still very attractive P/E.

There is a reason Buffet finally jumped in head first in AAPL.

I’m totally with you, but it’s all about how the market accepts the report.   Taken well, we have a bottom confirmed and we will see a huge run the rest of the year.  Some recently beaten down names will run hard (FB, AMZN, energy, other risk on ) 

[Tailgate 3,023]

Saw this today and smiled...

“October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.” - Mark Twain

[Trey3216 15,356]

For any of you true gamblers, I think AAPL's report after the bell could affect the market in a significant way to the up or downside.  I also think Trump will make more comments tomorrow regarding a deal with China.  

SO here's a straight gamble play.  of course, I'm already neck deep in it since I bought earlier in the week and got theta crushed wed morning, but you can buy the weekly expiry FB 160's right now for .03.  That's $3/contract.  500 for $1500 (plus fees).  

If AAPL comes out with a big # and guides higher, we'll have a confirmation of short-term bottom in the market (monday low) and we will steam higher.  FB has lagged the other FAANG names all week.  We will see a massive squeeze in the name and it could run 10%.  Tomorrow.  That would leave you with a tidy $250k for your $1500 bet.  

 

 

[Trey3216 15,356]

15 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I bought the 1525’s for $31.50/ and the 1600’s for $11.50.   Sold the 1525’s for 90 and the 1600’s for 35.  

 

Bought 20 1650’s right before the bell for 5.70.   Total gamble at this point but any follow through during the session tomorrow and/or big number from AAPL after the bell will our this on a steamship to 1700 

Those 1650's are currently at $14.00.  Debating on holding them or taking that nice profit.  

[Anastasis 23,485]

^ That sounds fun. 

[Trey3216 15,356]

15 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

^ That sounds fun. 

It is, but nerve wracking.  Now trading at 19.50.  Pretty sure I'm gonna clock out any minute now.  May use some house money to buy the 1675's  

[Trey3216 15,356]

Got out at 25.00.  Could have had 30 but held through it and had to take 25.  

 

Bought 20 1700's for 5.00 and 10 1675's for 11.50.    We'll see.  I'm up in those right now.  

[jimmyjazz 46,130]

AAPL:

Revenue beats ($62.9B vs $61.4 est)

EPS beats ($2.91 vs $2.78 est)

Guidance misses ($89B - $93B vs $92.94 est)

 

Shares down 5% after hours.

Edited November 1, 2018 by jimmyjazz

[Wally Fairway 5,586]

4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

AAPL:

Revenue beats ($62.9B vs $61.4 est)

EPS beats ($2.91 vs $2.78 est)

Guidance misses ($89B - $93B vs $92.94 est)

 

Shares down 5% after hours.

So you are saying Trey isn't going to  make $250K on his $1,500 "investment"

[jimmyjazz 46,130]

Eh, downward pressure is easing.  Who knows how his FB play will work out . . .

[Tailgate 3,023]

Still a bull on AAPL

[Trey3216 15,356]

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

So you are saying Trey isn't going to  make $250K on his $1,500 "investment"

Correct.   And I said gamble 

[Tailgate 3,023]

I applaud you guys who take risks. I’m sure the good days are awesome. Just don’t have time or skill personally to try and time. 

I’ll take the still almost 30% return on AAPL YTD.

No way it dips far below that...if so...feel free to repost.

[Anastasis 23,485]

I like reading the gamble plays. Keep me coming. 

[jimmyjazz 46,130]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

I like reading the gamble plays. Keep me coming. 

[Anastasis 23,485]

Uh. Sorry. I’ll see my self out. 

[Wally Fairway 5,586]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

Correct.   And I said gamble 

and I said "investment"

Hey FB is only down $1.65 after hours, AAPL down about $14 (up from lows of down over $17)

[Trey3216 15,356]

Pre-markets up nicely.   AMZN trading in mid 1680’s.   FB up but not enough....yet.   Maybe we’ll get some sort of violent rally and FB shorts will get scared out of some positions.   Just need one really big 13-F (and today would be a good day for it 3 days after earnings/new month) 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

I’m trying to keep about 1/2 in cash until after the election. Tempted to buy some AAPL today but I’m not sure this is the bottom yet.