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Posted

Sort of interesting dichotomy of the market on some reporting today

Pinterest pops on AI targeting advertising revenue boost

Expedia pops on usage so folks spending and traveling

Affirm really pops on number of folks using the monthly payment model.

 

So AI investments coming to fruition for Pinterest, and optimistic traveling consumer.  Both great economic signs looking forward.  However, I would think that a boost in usage of pay by the month, would infer that some folks need to stretch out funding for their online purchases? Which would be a bad sign. Or  I guess it could also be possible that Affirm's marketing and wider consumer acceptance, boosted the user number?  But that would not be the horse I would be betting on in the Affirm number.  

 

 

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted

Good news, for those of you that are fully invested in the market; I decided over the weekend to take about 50%+/- from the market and ride a moey market account. Thinking the feed funding extension that is due in March could be a problem, and the markets will back up firm this rush. 

But I forgot today was a holiday, so you have time to but calls and profit from my wrongness.

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Posted
15 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Good news, for those of you that are fully invested in the market; I decided over the weekend to take about 50%+/- from the market and ride a moey market account. Thinking the feed funding extension that is due in March could be a problem, and the markets will back up firm this rush. 

But I forgot today was a holiday, so you have time to but calls and profit from my wrongness.

I am actually at the point of sort of deciding that the bulls are going to overrun me in the short term.  While I do expect a higher inflation number, I think the tactic of kicking the tariff can down the road, makes the market think that implementation is far from certain.  But SWA just had it's first layoffs ever.

 

Since folks have been piling on you Wally... I guess it's easier to pull 50% from the market when you don't have to worry about those pesky capital gains...  😉

 

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Posted
16 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Good news, for those of you that are fully invested in the market; I decided over the weekend to take about 50%+/- from the market and ride a moey market account. Thinking the feed funding extension that is due in March could be a problem, and the markets will back up firm this rush. 

But I forgot today was a holiday, so you have time to but calls and profit from my wrongness.

im not meaningfully invested until after tax season.  just swing trading commodities and other futures

Posted
2 hours ago, horn4life said:

But SWA just had it's first layoffs ever.

They're merging with Spirit to be the Spirit of the Southwest. Now the fist fights will start in the family boarding line and not just be in the air.

Posted
13 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

They're merging with Spirit to be the Spirit of the Southwest. Now the fist fights will start in the family boarding line and not just be in the air.

So the Spirit of (E)St Louis??  

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Posted
21 hours ago, Anastasis said:

futures already moving on this news. 

record high on SPY today, good thing I sold before the next record high (which by my calculation should be by the end of next week...but could be as early as tomorrow)
 

Posted

OK- Anyone one know anything about this company? Zoetis ZTS?

I saw that they have reportedly been given conditional approval for a bird flu vaccine, in an article related to Turkey sending a bunch of eggs to the US. I went to the chart expecting to see a little pop for the stock I knew nothing about.  But instead of a rise I see a decline of 8.5% in the last 5 days.  To what i would have expected to be good news?

Anyhow when I see something I don't expect, sometimes there is a hidden opportunity when I dig around.

Posted
9 minutes ago, horn4life said:

OK- Anyone one know anything about this company? Zoetis ZTS?

I saw that they have reportedly been given conditional approval for a bird flu vaccine, in an article related to Turkey sending a bunch of eggs to the US. I went to the chart expecting to see a little pop for the stock I knew nothing about.  But instead of a rise I see a decline of 8.5% in the last 5 days.  To what i would have expected to be good news?

Anyhow when I see something I don't expect, sometimes there is a hidden opportunity when I dig around.

World's largest veterinary pharma.  Formerly Pfizer Animal Health.

Retains a lot of the good characteristics of a pharma without a lot of the bad associated with human pharma, or at least on a much smaller scale.

Should be a sound investment.

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Posted
Just now, TwiceHorn said:

World's largest veterinary pharma.  Formerly Pfizer Animal Health.

Retains a lot of the good characteristics of a pharma without a lot of the bad associated with human pharma, or at least on a much smaller scale.

Should be a sound investment.

But why a drop after "good news?"

That's an inverse from my expectation.

Posted
8 minutes ago, horn4life said:

But why a drop after "good news?"

That's an inverse from my expectation.

Recent earnings report.  I suspect that it's judged as an overall company rather than on some of its recent breaking news.

One thing about it, I believe they generate nearly half of their revenue outside the US, where the regulatory framework may be more rational, and less profit-intensive.

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Posted

I finally got a chance to review a small inheritance my wife received from her mother.  It's a mix of a few stocks, a couple of mutual funds, and some cash.  We would like to be pretty conservative at this point, for a variety of reasons, so I'm wondering if there is any consensus about whether we should hang on to any of these holdings:

MSFT (biggest holding, seems pretty stagnant for over a year)

ABBV

PG

ABT

XOM (pretty stagnant)

WMT (nice run but took a dump today)

BAC

I can see keeping WMT, it's not a big % of the holdings and despite today's hit would seem more recession proof than most.  The others I can do without, but if there are any compelling reasons to hold on to any of them I'm all ears.  Thoughts?

Posted

You can get buy or sell opinions on any of those stocks.  IMPO they all are solid historical performers that pay dividends. Its a fairly safe assumption they will continue to appreciate in value and you get the dividend income over time if you hold.  Of course there is single stock risk in any of them and they could decline significantly at any time.  I assume your basis is based on inheritance date so tax isn’t a concern if you sell.

So the question becomes what other needs/wants do you have for the money?   

Posted

The cost basis was indeed established on the inheritance date.  As far as needs are concerned, only an annual tax bill, a little home repair prior to selling, and what's left of college tuition for 3 kids who are nearing graduation.  Nothing huge.  I'm more concerned about the economy going forward and would probably feel more comfortable seeing that money earn ~ 5% (or whatever the current rates are) in safe vehicles.

Posted
5 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I finally got a chance to review a small inheritance my wife received from her mother.  It's a mix of a few stocks, a couple of mutual funds, and some cash.  We would like to be pretty conservative at this point, for a variety of reasons, so I'm wondering if there is any consensus about whether we should hang on to any of these holdings:

MSFT (biggest holding, seems pretty stagnant for over a year)

ABBV

PG

ABT

XOM (pretty stagnant)

WMT (nice run but took a dump today)

BAC

I can see keeping WMT, it's not a big % of the holdings and despite today's hit would seem more recession proof than most.  The others I can do without, but if there are any compelling reasons to hold on to any of them I'm all ears.  Thoughts?

image.gif.99069211eeb31635e7322e9f0f531bd7.gif

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Posted
45 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

earn ~ 5% (or whatever the current rates are) in safe vehicles.

Sounds like you are pretty set on selling them.  "Safe", I assume means HYSA or T-bills.  I am very doubtful HYSA yields will sustain over 4% yields in the medium term.  You can lock in 4.75% on a 30 T-bill and be done with it.  Anyone who did that in 2002 looked pretty smart for the last 20 years in terms of risk free return.  That said, I'd guess your 30-40% of the way to 4.75% on the dividends.  You also have to take into consideration the tax rate of qualified dividend vs. ordinary income.  So you are likely well over 50% of the way to the desired yield on dividends.

Obviously, its extremely easy to manage someone else's financial decisions over the internet.   That said my gut reaction is, its a free roll.  Clip the dividends and ride the wave.

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Posted

My version of "safe" assumed certificates of deposit.  Seems like they are yielding roughly the same as HYSA and money market funds.  I'm not exactly an expert on the differences, although I should say we won't need the cash and a 6-month term that gets rolled would be fine.

Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

My version of "safe" assumed certificates of deposit.  Seems like they are yielding roughly the same as HYSA and money market funds.  I'm not exactly an expert on the differences, although I should say we won't need the cash and a 6-month term that gets rolled would be fine.

CDs and HYSA yields are going to be similar rates.   

Here is a chart on the history of CD rates.  They were essential zero from 2010 to 2022.  Very well could be my own bias, but as I said I am doubtful they will offer sustained 4% yields.   So you may be in a situation where a 6 month CD matures and you're looking at 2.5% or less, and of course there is a chance rates go up and you do better.   Its anyones guess really.  

 

https://www.bankrate.com/banking/cds/historical-cd-interest-rates/

 

 

Edited by Incredulity
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Posted
Just now, Incredulity said:

Here is a chart on the history of CD rates.  They were essential zero from 2010 to 2022.  Very well could be my own bias, but as I said I am doubtful they will offer sustained 4% yields.  

Sure, if CD rates track down we might have to adjust.  We just have a lot of shit going on right now and have little appetite for risk, certainly compared to what it was in the past.

I'm mostly looking for advice on those individual stocks to see if there are any particular one or two that stand out as keepers.  These accounts are WAY loaded towards MSFT (as in 3X the next largest holding) so I'm included to at least trim that back some, if not just get rid of it completely.

I'll dig into the annual dividend % on these stocks and see if that colors our perspective.  Doesn't protect much against downside risk, though.

Posted
6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm mostly looking for advice on those individual stocks

We Are Pals GIFs - Find & Share on GIPHY

We all are.  Be suspicious of anyone who claims to know what an individual stock will do.

 

7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

MSFT

Mega cap tech has had an absolutely absurd 8-10 year run.  I have personally lucked(by that meaning I thought the investments were sound but in no way predicted 10x returns) into some very nice gains on MSFT positions I bought in the mid 20teens.   

In my opinion there is a plausible argument its going nowhere for the medium term.  Similar to it's performance from approx. 2001-2015.

OR, they crack the AI genie code and unleash unlimited value creating a unprecedented stream of revenue and the stock 10x's again over the next decade.

 

 

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Posted
6 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I finally got a chance to review a small inheritance my wife received from her mother.  It's a mix of a few stocks, a couple of mutual funds, and some cash.  We would like to be pretty conservative at this point, for a variety of reasons, so I'm wondering if there is any consensus about whether we should hang on to any of these holdings:

MSFT (biggest holding, seems pretty stagnant for over a year)

ABBV

PG

ABT

XOM (pretty stagnant)

WMT (nice run but took a dump today)

BAC

I can see keeping WMT, it's not a big % of the holdings and despite today's hit would seem more recession proof than most.  The others I can do without, but if there are any compelling reasons to hold on to any of them I'm all ears.  Thoughts?

Go to either https://portfoliometrics.net/ or https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults and enter what you own.  You can then back test how that portfolio has performed historically.  You can set up withdrawing dividends or withdrawing a percentage or fixed amount monthly/annually and see how it performs.  You may realize that you can cash flow a healthy amount of extra income without needing to sell all of it at once and take a big tax hit.  Of course, back testing doesn't predict the future but it's about the best tool available for the average person. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Go to either https://portfoliometrics.net/ or https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults and enter what you own.  You can then back test how that portfolio has performed historically.  You can set up withdrawing dividends or withdrawing a percentage or fixed amount monthly/annually and see how it performs.

Thanks, those sound like good tools.  I'll check them out.  I assume they allow for the reinvestment of dividends, too?  We don't really need cash flow outside of the current obligations I've alluded to.

Posted
3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Thanks, those sound like good tools.  I'll check them out.  I assume they allow for the reinvestment of dividends, too?  We don't really need cash flow outside of the current obligations I've alluded to.

Yep.  You can set reinvesting, cashing it in, withdrawing a fixed amount or percentage, etc.  

Portfolio Visualizer is more detailed and the best but they ruined the interface so us long time users don't like it. If you haven't seen the old version if it then you'll probably love it.  PV will now only back test 10 years without a paid subscription so just be aware that it won't cover all major events in the back testing.  

Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I finally got a chance to review a small inheritance my wife received from her mother.  It's a mix of a few stocks, a couple of mutual funds, and some cash.  We would like to be pretty conservative at this point, for a variety of reasons, so I'm wondering if there is any consensus about whether we should hang on to any of these holdings:

MSFT (biggest holding, seems pretty stagnant for over a year)

ABBV

PG

ABT

XOM (pretty stagnant)

WMT (nice run but took a dump today)

BAC

I can see keeping WMT, it's not a big % of the holdings and despite today's hit would seem more recession proof than most.  The others I can do without, but if there are any compelling reasons to hold on to any of them I'm all ears.  Thoughts?

Given your age I would not hold any individual stocks. Just my opinion. Of course, I still own 2 individual stocks. 

As far as “safe” investments, I would look at a U.S. Treasury ETF with short duration, at or under 2 years. BIL, etc.

Stock prices are overvalued, corporate bond spreads wrt treasuries are too narrow, CD’s, HYSA yield below treasuries slightly but don’t really give you much if any more protection than treasuries. 

edit: you can’t get 5% without taking more risk. With short term treasuries you get 4.3%

Edited by Dbeasy
Posted
7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Yeah, I'd like to see what that portfolio did during some of the shocks more than a decade ago.  portfoliometrics goes back farther?

Looks like it also limits you to 10 years for the free tier.  Of the two, I would join the Portfolio Visualizer and do the 14 day free trial.  That's plenty of time to run through a bunch of scenarios.  

 

 

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Posted
7 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I finally got a chance to review a small inheritance my wife received from her mother.  It's a mix of a few stocks, a couple of mutual funds, and some cash.  We would like to be pretty conservative at this point, for a variety of reasons, so I'm wondering if there is any consensus about whether we should hang on to any of these holdings:

MSFT (biggest holding, seems pretty stagnant for over a year)

ABBV

PG

ABT

XOM (pretty stagnant)

WMT (nice run but took a dump today)

BAC

I can see keeping WMT, it's not a big % of the holdings and despite today's hit would seem more recession proof than most.  The others I can do without, but if there are any compelling reasons to hold on to any of them I'm all ears.  Thoughts?

Honestly, i would sell i all.  no cap gain since inherited at current value.  then sit on the cash and wait and see what happens in the next 6-12 weeks. if market goes south you can come back in with more upside.  Right now investing is simply a part of US economy the game, and anyone who tells you with any confidence they know what is going to happen in the next 6-12 weeks is an abject liar.  

Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

As far as “safe” investments, I would look at a U.S. Treasury ETF with short duration, at or under 2 years. BIL, etc.

I took a look at BIL . . . valuation just sawtooths up and down monthly, is that reflecting a 1-month yield payout?

Never mind, I found the price data, it's the dividends.

Edited by jimmyjazz
Posted
3 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Honestly, i would sell i all.  no cap gain since inherited at current value.  

Some gain, the inheritance was about 18 months ago.  We've just been giving the whole thing the side eye since then.  It's probably almost half cash, so the downside risk wasn't as bad as it could have been (and the gains were obviously capped by those cash holdings as well).

Posted
21 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I took a look at BIL . . . valuation just sawtooths up and down monthly, is that reflecting a 1-month yield payout?

Never mind, I found the price data, it's the dividends.

Because BIL holds only max 3 month treasuries, any short term fall off in value due to higher interest rates would recover in a few weeks or months. So there is very little interest rate risk, and no credit risk because it’s US gov treasuries. Unless Trump decided to default on US debt. That would be Armageddon. 

Posted
26 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Some gain, the inheritance was about 18 months ago.  We've just been giving the whole thing the side eye since then.  It's probably almost half cash, so the downside risk wasn't as bad as it could have been (and the gains were obviously capped by those cash holdings as well).

If you want to hold, definitely put some stops on all of them.  To cut losses is if moves that way.  I'm probably selling anything I don't love, and going to short term T-bills or cash if I wanted to buy on a dip.

Posted
9 minutes ago, horn4life said:

If you want to hold, definitely put some stops on all of them.  To cut losses is if moves that way.  I'm probably selling anything I don't love, and going to short term T-bills or cash if I wanted to buy on a dip.

Any idea how stops work out versus puts?  I know there is the "risk" that the market makers will move to take out stops, but surely that's unlikely with small holdings in large caps, right?  Plus, you don't pay for a stop.  (I think I'm answering my question.)

Posted

All a stop is, is a standing order to sell at X price.  It doesn’t matter what causes the market to hit the stop or what happens to the price after the stop.  Your stock has been sold.
 

Posted
9 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

All a stop is, is a standing order to sell at X price.  It doesn’t matter what causes the market to hit the stop or what happens to the price after the stop.  Your stock has been sold.
 

I'm well aware of what a stop is.  The point is that owning a put gives me the control, whereas a stop can be taken out on a blip down.

Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm well aware of what a stop is.  The point is that owning a put gives me the control, whereas a stop can be taken out on a blip down.

got it. 

I think you're talking about selling a covered call, versus a put.  Unless you want to risk what you pay for the put.  

 

Edit ****  I didn't say that well.  surprisingly.  lol

 

The put contract is a bearish bet and will cost you money unless the  stock decreases in value.

 

Edited by Incredulity
Posted
11 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

The put contract is a bearish bet and will cost you money unless the  stock decreases in value.

Long put + long stock = long call.  They're synthetic equivalents.  Yeah, the put itself is bearish, but it's a hedge against the long stock.

Selling a covered call is capping the upside for income, not hedging the downside.  You can still lose it all on the covered call.  Not on a long put + long stock.

I'm just curious if there are papers studying (for instance) the efficacy of X% stops versus long puts on long stock.  Probably not the right thread.

Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Long put + long stock = long call.  They're synthetic equivalents.  Yeah, the put itself is bearish, but it's a hedge against the long stock.

Selling a covered call is capping the upside for income, not hedging the downside.  You can still lose it all on the covered call.  Not on a long put + long stock.

I'm just curious if there are papers studying (for instance) the efficacy of X% stops versus long puts on long stock.  Probably not the right thread.

Yes I fucked that up.  whoops.  back to the 9 to 5(intramurals).  lol.

 

Quote

papers studying (for instance) the efficacy of X% stops versus long puts on long stock.

d98f3e2d-book_10bx0ht000000000000028.png

These guys seem trustworthy...

Edited by Incredulity
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Posted
2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Yes I fucked that up.  whoops.  back to the 9 to 5(intramurals).  lol.

 

d98f3e2d-book_10bx0ht000000000000028.png

These guys seem trustworthy...

They're goofy as shit, but they're solid traders with sensible ideas.    Not every idea will ever work because the market is a fickle bitch. 

Posted
12 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I finally got a chance to review a small inheritance my wife received from her mother.  It's a mix of a few stocks, a couple of mutual funds, and some cash.  We would like to be pretty conservative at this point, for a variety of reasons, so I'm wondering if there is any consensus about whether we should hang on to any of these holdings:

MSFT (biggest holding, seems pretty stagnant for over a year)

ABBV

PG

ABT

XOM (pretty stagnant)

WMT (nice run but took a dump today)

BAC

I can see keeping WMT, it's not a big % of the holdings and despite today's hit would seem more recession proof than most.  The others I can do without, but if there are any compelling reasons to hold on to any of them I'm all ears.  Thoughts?

I assume this makes investing in hookers and blow somewhat more problematic?  That’s why it’s hard to beat the tried and true dependability of the good old .003 APY Christmas Club account.

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