Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted
On 2/23/2025 at 8:30 AM, horn4life said:

Anyhow - What do you think is the best strategy to profit from a declining market? 


are you asking what strategy will yield the most profit if the equity markets decline across the board? 

Posted
3 hours ago, ZB'Tejas said:

PLTR hurts to look at

Still up 12% in the past month and 175% in the past 6 months.

People probably bought thinking Peter Thiel ducking the donald's dick would bring in more business.

I guess it's not going to work out.

 

Posted
3 hours ago, ZB'Tejas said:

PLTR hurts to look at

Pissed I didn't stop out at least a small chunk at $118, when I had my finger over the stop.. DUMBASS!!!! 

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:


are you asking what strategy will yield the most profit if the equity markets decline across the board? 

Yes, but specifically more focused strategies.  I was going to buy March 7, $28 UVIX calls for like $2.20ish about 1pm but, thought too much of the same bet... DUMBASS! Would have been about a 65% win, in two hours.  

What I should have done is just flip my PLTR position, but WAAAAY too much risk betting that much all to the downside.

Looking for oddball stuff I may not be aware of honestly?

 

17 minutes ago, Superhero said:

Still up 12% in the past month and 175% in the past 6 months.

People probably bought thinking Peter Thiel ducking the donald's dick would bring in more business.

I guess it's not going to work out.

 

My thought was always that PLTR's best attribute was their secure environment performance would be a plus eventually in the commercial space.  They are honestly the only AI company actually booking real scale of profit in AI. But the fucking valuations are psychotic. (See my not stopping out higher post above!!!!). I rode it up and got smoked on the way down once before, so wary.  

I will come back in the same way I have done in the past at some point. Mostly with covered calls. Then reselling calls at the peak on the same shares.  Stock is mercurial, but selling calls high, and buying in the money calls on the downs works when the momentum swings back to PLTR.  I think they are well positioned to get more US contracts.  But silliness like pretending Pete Hegseth is cutting 8% of military spending, started the big pull back.  I actually sort of see parallels between PLTR and the US stock market right now.  A lot of hope, high valuations. and a hiccup from a close look at the shitter.  

4 hours ago, Parliament said:

WHAT THE FUCK IS HAPPENING

US Economy the Game!

Posted
On 2/18/2025 at 4:01 PM, bluto said:

Far from an expert like Wally but getting the itch to sell off a lot of stuff right now

So I did dump a substantial chunk of SPY at $612. Feeling like a boss, and planning on dumping a similar sized chunk on Monday. will be about 40% liquid. 
 

Dark clouds rolling in and the captain and crew of the ship are beyond drunk it seems to me (Atlanta fed and Dallas fed manufacturing survey are serious shit shows)

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Posted
Just now, 52-80 said:

Treasury bonds are doing well if you folks havent abandoned it in your retirement portfolio

luckily i slide back into bonds a few weeks ago on a lark. 

You know it's bad when people are even really trying to buy the dip. 

Posted
On 3/1/2025 at 6:52 AM, bluto said:

So I did dump a substantial chunk of SPY at $612. Feeling like a boss, and planning on dumping a similar sized chunk on Monday. will be about 40% liquid. 
 

Dark clouds rolling in and the captain and crew of the ship are beyond drunk it seems to me (Atlanta fed and Dallas fed manufacturing survey are serious shit shows)

We dont have to blame Wally anymore anytime the market drops. 

its all blutos fault from now on. 

  • Haha 1
Posted
20 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

We dont have to blame Wally anymore anytime the market drops. 

its all blutos fault from now on. 

Shit, I was at least accurate as of today. No head fakes like that bastard Wally. 

  • Haha 1
Posted
1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

Treasury bonds are doing well if you folks havent abandoned it in your retirement portfolio

My October portfolio consisting of 30% ZROZ, 30% TLT, 10% IBIT, 10% IBRX, 10% YMAG and 10% XYLD has done stayed admirably level.  

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Ten year needs to go down about another hundred basis points

And stay there for a while.

I'll have about a 15-20% gain in my ZROZ/TLT if it goes down a full point.  Happy with that...and the yield on top of it.  

Posted
43 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

My October portfolio consisting of 30% ZROZ, 30% TLT, 10% IBIT, 10% IBRX, 10% YMAG and 10% XYLD has done stayed admirably level.  

Quoting to say that I took a call mid-post...  I don't normally utilize the phrase "done stayed" in my everyday lexicon.  

Posted
3 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

luckily i slide back into bonds a few weeks ago on a lark. 

You know it's bad when people are even really trying to buy the dip. 

I also went into bonds about three weeks ago (and actually put the kids' entire 529s into fixed income).  And Thursday I bought a bunch of May puts on SPY at 580, and I gotta tell you--I'm feeling pretty good about that.

We're going to get numbers starting this Friday that are going to be . . . not good.  And I just don't know how the market is going to react to that.

Posted

For those who like to trade on the way down, the SPY 200 day moving average is about 571 and both a 10% drop from the recent all time high and a fibonacci retracement from the 350 low in 2022 is at around 550. I put a good amount in for 571 bounce just now. Let's see if it falls there or not this week. Ill put more in to trade at 550 as well if it gets that far.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
42 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Is there a basic learner on options?  I have no interest in day trading, but occasionally I get a sense of where the macros are going and I’d like to hedge my generally long philosophy 

 

IMG_1787.jpeg

Posted

Anyone else moving money into the international market?  And/or consumer staples?

I've been rebalancing my portfolios to be less US centric in hope of avoiding the isolationist crash.

Am I overreacting?

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted (edited)

I am very sorry for all your losses.  I thought about quoting myself a few times, but I can't feel really good about making money when those around me are losing.  I am just glad I am betting against this market.  What's funny is that while I had a great day.  I also know that if the markets go down again hard in the morning.  A wet finger will be stuck in the air... and the direction of the wind will potentially reverse todays policy.  (if there is not a new twee I missed while writing?)

Chaos is my friend right now.  And I figure it's easier to bet against something that nobody at all can predict, that bet on something that nobody at all can predict... March 15th is going to make today look like a warmup...

 

PS - I was upside down on UVIX, until I bought more after closing out my PLTR.  and I left a LOT of fucking money on PLTR  not selling sooner. but in a sweet spot now, at least until morning

 

 

Edited by horn4life
Posted
6 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

For those who like to trade on the way down, the SPY 200 day moving average is about 571 and both a 10% drop from the recent all time high and a fibonacci retracement from the 350 low in 2022 is at around 550. I put a good amount in for 571 bounce just now. Let's see if it falls there or not this week. Ill put more in to trade at 550 as well if it gets that far.

I have standing buy orders at 570 too. If we die, we die together 🫡

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
6 hours ago, DixonHur said:

Anyone else moving money into the international market?  And/or consumer staples?

I've been rebalancing my portfolios to be less US centric in hope of avoiding the isolationist crash.

Am I overreacting?

Some big hedge fund went all in on China a month or more back with some ETFs and BABA etc. 
 

If you’re long U.S. you’re fine. Was not hard to recognize the recent valuations in some of these companies were in the stratosphere. This bull market has been running and lasting even through the pandemic. Can’t always go up.

Posted
8 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Is there a basic learner on options?  I have no interest in day trading, but occasionally I get a sense of where the macros are going and I’d like to hedge my generally long philosophy 

Equity options were originally designed - and still likely are best - as hedging tools. It's really an insurance product in that it's risk-adjusted; it's time-bound; profitability is conditional; and there's a premium paid to hold the insurance.

An example is SPY250404C580 quoted at $16.07.

That's a call option on SPY that expires 2025 April 4th, the premium costs $16.07 per share for 100 shares (=$1607 to purchase the contract), and the condition is within that time frame you can "call" 100 shares from the counterparty for $580 per share. Conversely you can also get put options to "put" shares to the counterparty.

It can also be used as a leverage speculative tool: You paid $16.07 per share premium to own the 580C. You profit is the size of the market discount relative to the premium. 

-SPY @ 596.08.  You call shares at a $16.08 discount ($596.07-$580). But you paid $16.07 premium. Your net profit per share is $0.01 (or $1 per contract) 

-SPY @ 597.00.  You call shares at a $17 discount. Net profit is $0.97 per share (or $97 per contract).

-SPY @ 600.00.  You call shares at a $20 discount. Net profit is $3.93 per share (or $393 per contract). 

It's possible to sell the call option as an underwriter and pocket the $1607 premium up front. SPY closing below $596.07 is profitable for underwriter. Below $580 nets the full $1607 as profit.

That's the gist.  Most retail are long options, i.e. they buy the contracts, and lose money on it consistently.

I like to get spicy and simultaneously short and long options at different strikes and expirations, so I can also lose money, but in more exotic and exciting ways.   

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 2
Posted
2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

I like to get spicy and simultaneously short and long options at different strikes and expirations, so I can also lose money, but in more exotic and exciting ways.   

This is what I want to learn more about. 

  • Haha 1
Posted
22 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:

What is UVIX? I read about it, but I don’t quite get it.

It's an index fund that tracks market volatility. If volatility is higher, VIX is higher. UVIX is a 2x leverage on the volatility. It's something you shouldn't hold for a long time, but it can be used to hedge against near-term uncertainty 

Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:

What is UVIX? I read about it, but I don’t quite get it.

It's a risky as fuck ETF that is supposed to mirror 1 and 2 month VIX futures contracts at 2X.  It has a nearly 2% expense expense ratio, and I bought it for a hedge against my PLTR, which I no longer own.  I should have honestly used put options more to protect the PLTR as Insurance. Would have saved me a nice chunk on the way down.

It's supposed the be 2X VIX - I'm in it because I see nothing but volatility in the near term.  And tariffs are inflationary. Period. Large capital investment is already starting to wane, as how can a competent CEO's make decisions when economic policy from the Federal Government is akin to roulette?  That's why I am in it.  It's a short term hedge, that is now my only position.  Basically it's a supposed to be a 2x volatility.  So a 2x bet against the market.

Edited by horn4life
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Posted

Good to know that on April 2nd, we will find out what the actual tariffs are going to be.  According to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.  These tariffs are going to stop fentanyl, the business ones will be revealed on April 2nd.  I thought that might shave off my pre-market.  The more I hear him talk, the more I feel very comfy betting against the market right now. Very comfortable.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 1
Posted
12 hours ago, DixonHur said:

Anyone else moving money into the international market?  And/or consumer staples?

I've been rebalancing my portfolios to be less US centric in hope of avoiding the isolationist crash.

Am I overreacting?

My Vanguard Total International Index fund has underperformed the S&P 500 by like 50% for the past 10 years.  Maybe my ship’s fixin to come in?

  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted
14 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Good to know that on April 2nd, we will find out what the actual tariffs are going to be.  According to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.  These tariffs are going to stop fentanyl, the business ones will be revealed on April 2nd.  I thought that might shave off my pre-market.  The more I hear him talk, the more I feel very comfy betting against the market right now. Very comfortable.

It's not as much as OUR tarrifs, but the retalitory ones from Canada and Mexico and our other trading partners/neighbors. Canada plans to stop exporting power to the northern US, as well as levying tarrifs.

Gotta say though, it's an impressive heel turn. Dare I say, historic

I guess that "if" was more real that you thought, huh @Incredulity? It's crazy when people do exactly what they say they're going to do!

  • Haha 1
  • Rage+1 1
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Goofyboy said:

What is UVIX? I read about it, but I don’t quite get it.

This is my flavor of spice. Practically it's a short term instrument to make a 1-day bet on vol. Technically, it's a derivative of a derivative of a derivative - it's turtles all the way down - which makes it really unsuitable for anything but 1-day holding.

Options prices are notionally risk-adjusted. The market determines the prices.  Therefore, the prices of options on S&P 500 Index (SPX) reflect what the market think of as the likelihood of price change of SPX, aka volatility.

The derivatives involved:

1. VIX is an amalgamation of the prices of SPX options expiring in ~30 days .  i.e. the SPX 30D forward vol.

2. VIX futures are prices on bets of the VIX value at monthly intervals in the future.  i.e. what will VIX be in April, May, June, etc

These things are directionally linked

3. UVIX continually buys and sells VIX futures contracts, so that its 1-day exposure is roughly equivalent to the 2x change in VIX.

There are some persistent qualities in the futures term structure that makes the mechanics of #3 a very bad idea. It results in the value of UVIX degrading over the long time. This is why it's bad for people to buy, but can be good in a lottery ticket type of way. The sponsor of UVIX don't care because people buy it and they earn money on the fees. 

Because of the effect of #3 above, I like to sell options on UVIX and UVXY, which is mostly very fun, and sometimes scary, but mostly fun.

  • Like 1
Posted
Just now, Captainant said:

It's not as much as OUR tarrifs, but the retalitory ones from Canada and Mexico and our other trading partners/neighbors. Canada plans to stop exporting power to the northern US, as well as levying tarrifs. Gotta say though, it's an impressive heel turn. Dare I say, historic

I guess that "if" was more real that you thought, huh @Incredulity? It's crazy when people do exactly what they say they're going to do!

What's crazy is that this has been the plan for years, and has been fine tuned over the last few months to roll out.   The execution of this shit is actually a microcosm of what is to come.  When there is not a single soul in a room to offer a contrary opinion, management decisions are often poorly made, and poorly executed.  They could have just laid out a timetable, and some clear 90 day guidelines for some reliability in potential decision making.  The uncertainty IS my bet right now.

5 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

There are some persistent qualities in the futures term structure that makes the mechanics of #3 a very bad idea. It results in the value of UVIX degrading over the long time. This is why it's bad for people to buy, but can be good in a lottery ticket type of way. The sponsor of UVIX don't care because people buy it and they earn money on the fees. 

Because of the effect of #3 above, I like to sell options on UVIX and UVXY, which is mostly very fun, and sometimes scary, but mostly fun.

You post Waaay back pushed me to start tiptoeing this direction as well. But leveraging something as volatile as UVIX is indeed both fun and scary.  

Posted
30 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Good to know that on April 2nd, we will find out what the actual tariffs are going to be.  According to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.  These tariffs are going to stop fentanyl, the business ones will be revealed on April 2nd.  I thought that might shave off my pre-market.  The more I hear him talk, the more I feel very comfy betting against the market right now. Very comfortable.

Exactly 1 week ago, the NYT reported that a bunch of Mexican traffickers expressed genuine fear over increased arrest/prosecution risk. This in response to Mexico extraditing 29 traffickers to the US due to tariff pressure and also possibility of direct US action via designating them as terrorists.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...