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Posted
13 hours ago, DixonHur said:

Anyone else moving money into the international market?  And/or consumer staples?

I've been rebalancing my portfolios to be less US centric in hope of avoiding the isolationist crash.

Am I overreacting?

International markets are going to hurt equal or more than US markets.  Too intertwined.  

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Posted
2 hours ago, horn4life said:

It's a risky as fuck ETF that is supposed to mirror 1 and 2 month VIX futures contracts at 2X.  It has a nearly 2% expense expense ratio, and I bought it for a hedge against my PLTR, which I no longer own.  I should have honestly used put options more to protect the PLTR as Insurance. Would have saved me a nice chunk on the way down.

It's supposed the be 2X VIX - I'm in it because I see nothing but volatility in the near term.  And tariffs are inflationary. Period. Large capital investment is already starting to wane, as how can a competent CEO's make decisions when economic policy from the Federal Government is akin to roulette?  That's why I am in it.  It's a short term hedge, that is now my only position.  Basically it's a supposed to be a 2x volatility.  So a 2x bet against the market.

Isn't even a true bet "against" the market, but a bet on day to day volatility of options on the SPX.  600 pt down days in a row followed by a 600 pt up day can garner the same result.  You basically want a lot of movement every day.  I've seen UVIX do very little or even go down during 8 straight down days where the market was finishing down by .1-.3%.  It's the 1%+ days stacked on top of each other that really get UVIX going.  

Posted
13 hours ago, DixonHur said:

Anyone else moving money into the international market?  And/or consumer staples?

I've been rebalancing my portfolios to be less US centric in hope of avoiding the isolationist crash.

Am I overreacting?

I cashed out every "non-essential" stock I own back at the end of January when you-know-who started flapping his gums about tariffs.  I wanted to keep something invested in my 401k so moved 25% to a Euro Stock Market fund.

Posted
1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

Exactly 1 week ago, the NYT reported that a bunch of Mexican traffickers expressed genuine fear over increased arrest/prosecution risk. This in response to Mexico extraditing 29 traffickers to the US due to tariff pressure and also possibility of direct US action via designating them as terrorists.

So the 40+ year "War on Drugs" could have been solved with some tariffs all those years ago?  Jesus, man.

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Posted
Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

So the 40+ year "War on Drugs" could have been solved with some tariffs all those years ago?  Jesus, man.

Shoot the Times, not the reposter

Posted

I recently moved a large percentage of my retirement funds into cash. I would rather risk losing short term profits as opposed to seeing the floor drop out underneath me. I figure that I will soon start dollar cost average buying.

i understand the sentiment that you can’t time the market but there are also signs that we’re much more likely to go down than up. If I’m wrong, I won’t lose a minute of sleep.

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Posted
49 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

So the 40+ year "War on Drugs" could have been solved with some tariffs all those years ago?  Jesus, man.

as an aside. Red Eyes slams, goes hard

 

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Posted

Im a net seller of call options on 90% of my UVXY transactions but in my IRA i dont fuck with uncapped risk positions so I bought some puts on it. 🙈

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Posted
18 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I recently moved a large percentage of my retirement funds into cash. I would rather risk losing short term profits as opposed to seeing the floor drop out underneath me. I figure that I will soon start dollar cost average buying.

i understand the sentiment that you can’t time the market but there are also signs that we’re much more likely to go down than up. If I’m wrong, I won’t lose a minute of sleep.

I was considering same yesterday but didn't this time.  I did this during COVID and went cash pre- market crash and patted myself on the back at how smart I was.  Then missed the fucking runup and didn't buy back in until I was at a loss.   I'm overly liquid right now though non-retirement and slow rolling putting that into the market. 

Posted
59 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I recently moved a large percentage of my retirement funds into cash. I would rather risk losing short term profits as opposed to seeing the floor drop out underneath me. I figure that I will soon start dollar cost average buying.

i understand the sentiment that you can’t time the market but there are also signs that we’re much more likely to go down than up. If I’m wrong, I won’t lose a minute of sleep.

I did the same thing when COVID first came on the scene.  While many were in pure panic mode I was sleeping like a baby.  Obviously I didn't get back in at the bottom but I caught enough of the recovery that my retirement account came out much better than if I had just HODL.

Posted

I've got quite a bit of cash in a non tax sheltered account that I chose to leave on the sidelines post November.  I'm hopeful that there will be some buying opportunities of stocks, not guns and canned goods because society has collapsed.  I hate camping and the District's firearm laws are a fucking PITA. 

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Posted

I hadnt thought about that Cathie Wood idiot in quite awhile, but heard that her portfolio was now back to underperforming the SPY on a 52 week basis. I thought that was odd, since last time I noticed the symbol, it was on a pretty nice run. So I checked the portfolio allocation....she's certainly got the touch. Truly gifted. 

image.thumb.png.1449ffe1eaec8ad7fb4af6d88e7eb3b6.png

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Posted
1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

Im a net seller of call options on 90% of my UVXY transactions but in my IRA i dont fuck with uncapped risk positions so I bought some puts on it. 🙈

Right there with you!

Sold March $57 calls on 1/3 as my first try to get some cash for downside, and bought $39 puts, and sold $57 on the remaining 2/3 a little later as the gains receded..  The good news is that first 1/3 of calls I sold paid for the cost of the protection/income of the other 2/3.  Learned from not keeping my PLTR stops tighter on at least some of my holdings.  And that cost me.

So at least I have some downside protection and a some more room to run to the upside. 

Posted
1 hour ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

I'm at retirement age.  This one is going to suck worse than COVID because despite Trump's efforts to fuck things up then, the world understood that we'd come back from COVID.

From this asshole's current attempts to fuck with the entire world?  Not so much.

I'm about 4 years away.  Hoping a lot of unfucking happens between now and then.

Posted
58 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Right there with you!

Sold March $57 calls on 1/3 as my first try to get some cash for downside, and bought $39 puts, and sold $57 on the remaining 2/3 a little later as the gains receded..  The good news is that first 1/3 of calls I sold paid for the cost of the protection/income of the other 2/3.  Learned from not keeping my PLTR stops tighter on at least some of my holdings.  And that cost me.

So at least I have some downside protection and a some more room to run to the upside. 

Todays VIX, VIX futures, and all its ETP products are red for the day 😆

The vol scare today =

image.jpeg.c942f0647babcd0962bb896658ca81c7.jpeg

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Posted
3 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

I've got quite a bit of cash in a non tax sheltered account that I chose to leave on the sidelines post November.  I'm hopeful that there will be some buying opportunities of stocks, not guns and canned goods because society has collapsed.  I hate camping and the District's firearm laws are a fucking PITA. 

i moved to cash in feb 2025.

looking and feeling pretty fucking smart.

 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, wackawacka said:

i moved to cash in feb 2025.

looking and feeling pretty fucking smart.

 

I liquidated my NVIDIA today and stuck it in a high interest-bearing account.

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Posted
1 hour ago, WBT said:

This is a fuck

 

11 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Fucking UNO reverse card

 

10 minutes ago, wackawacka said:

i moved to cash in feb 2025.

looking and feeling pretty fucking smart.

 

 

2 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

I liquidated my NVIDIA today and stuck it in a high interest-bearing account.

I moved about 30% into cash in Feb, and today added to my SPY puts. These were short term (Thur/Fri expiry) in anticipation of President Huff & Puff saying shit tonight that will negatively impact the markets over the next couple of days...shit like increasing tariffs, calling out Ukraine leadership, laying off thousands of federal employees, drill baby drill (which will cost the O&G industry money), crypto prez,  maybe pardoning more criminals. Most of these things will cause stocks to flinch.

Posted

The only thing that makes me feel better about the stock market is that it's back to about where it was prior to the "irrational exuberance" post-election.

Posted
5 hours ago, Blotto said:

I hadnt thought about that Cathie Wood idiot in quite awhile, but heard that her portfolio was now back to underperforming the SPY on a 52 week basis. I thought that was odd, since last time I noticed the symbol, it was on a pretty nice run. So I checked the portfolio allocation....she's certainly got the touch. Truly gifted. 

image.thumb.png.1449ffe1eaec8ad7fb4af6d88e7eb3b6.png

She's basically just heavy Tesla and always has been.

Posted
2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

 

 

 

I moved about 30% into cash in Feb, and today added to my SPY puts. These were short term (Thur/Fri expiry) in anticipation of President Huff & Puff saying shit tonight that will negatively impact the markets over the next couple of days...shit like increasing tariffs, calling out Ukraine leadership, laying off thousands of federal employees, drill baby drill (which will cost the O&G industry money), crypto prez,  maybe pardoning more criminals. Most of these things will cause stocks to flinch.

Wait til we get the jobs numbers on Friday.

Oh, and earnings season is going to be fun.

We're going to have a shitshow well into 2Q25.

Posted
8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Wait til we get the jobs numbers on Friday.

Oh, and earnings season is going to be fun.

We're going to have a shitshow well into 2Q25.

oh - short expiry options are the ones you can play with as often as you want, for as much as you want to lose

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