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Posted

Highly volatile market in short term. Sign me the fuck up. My goal is to day trade options between conference calls with aim to buy a few shares of brk/b every day or two. 
 

 

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Posted
5 hours ago, Goredho said:

it's more about what to do with the big pot that I'd like to see grow, but not at the risk of being unavailable for retirement.

We may be nearing the point where you shouldn't be worried about return on capital, but rather return of capital.

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Posted
5 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Highly volatile market in short term. Sign me the fuck up. My goal is to day trade options between conference calls with aim to buy a few shares of brk/b every day or two. 

Aim higher

But a few shares of BRK.a every few days

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Posted

I’m 60% US Equities (almost all ETF’s) and the rest pretty even across other stuff. I figure I’ll buy on the way down and back up and down. I have 20 years till hopefully retiring. I figure things will stabilize at some point OR it all goes to zero and we get our MadMax clothes and ThunderDome.

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Posted
13 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

We may be nearing the point where you shouldn't be worried about return on capital, but rather return of capital.

That's why I have such a big bet against the market.  But my big downward bet has done so well I have now burned money to hedge back to preserve those gains, in case the market has a nice rebound. If you have nice gains you want to protect you need to develop a reactive strategy, beyond hope.  Or the concern will be exactly wishing you could get that capital returned.

It is also good to point out that until you sell a stock you have not gained a penny nor lost a dime.  Only at the sale point does that occur.

 

13 hours ago, Captainant said:

Same move as COVID - if you have no data, then nothing is wrong

OR Infant mortality rates in Texas... (wish I could laugh at that one)

 

Posted

The problem with the Trump policy at this point is not what the policy is or is not.  It's the fact that it is proclaimed one thing, then policy whipsaws exactly the opposite direction.  It's not the policy itself (which I personally believe will be very inflationary).  But the lack of clarity sort or makes me view the market right now as my UVIX where it will basically daily degrade, under the weight of transactional friction and end of day rebalancing.  

The friction is now the problem.  Because now even if a firm and permanent trade policy was implemented by the administration tomorrow, would anybody?  And I do mean Anybody, think that the policy presented would be the final policy?  Even if it truly was the permanent new policy, the assumption would be that the policy would again soon be revised.  So it might take an extended (compared to normal) length of time for the policy to be widely viewed as actual policy.  

Right now "Policy" is a tweet, followed up by a very strong and principled appearance by Lutnick. Followed the next day by a very strong and principled Lutnick, strongly asserting the exact opposite. This friction... in my mind is like death by a thousand tiny cuts dragging on the market.  

 

My one Plus play in the market in this account is Since I am slightly open to a big drop in UVIX, I took a tiny nibble of PLTR Tuesday, with March 7, $85 covered calls.  My net price is $81.04, and I don't get any topside FOMO until $89.70.  But making 5% in 3 days, is how I build my original PLTR stake.  If it closes OTM, tomorrow then I keep the shares and resell more calls on the next steep move upward, farther out for a larger premium. Of course this only works on a rising stock over time.

 

Posted
On 3/4/2025 at 8:21 AM, 52-80 said:

I have standing buy orders at 570 too. If we die, we die together 🫡

Apparently I had SPY575 orders, and those just hit.  The 570s havent triggered just yet... maybe today or tomorrow?

Posted

I bragged on the Intel thread about some equity + options positions that were absolutely stonking. And now they're just a hair above profitable. (Gonna grab more)

Nibbled on the Target drop a while back, and that was great too, except now its sliding into the red.

what-infrequently-known-quote-do-you-use-the-most-v0-7eg99lj29dg91.webp.9b72437e8fe4085a07524b6feed444f0.webp

 

Posted
56 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Apparently I had SPY575 orders, and those just hit.  The 570s havent triggered just yet... maybe today or tomorrow?

I had an order out with a 583 strike and summer date and my order fucking missed by like 10 cents before it bounced. 

Posted
1 hour ago, horn4life said:

The problem with the Trump policy at this point is not what the policy is or is not.  It's the fact that it is proclaimed one thing, then policy whipsaws exactly the opposite direction.  It's not the policy itself (which I personally believe will be very inflationary).  But the lack of clarity sort or makes me view the market right now as my UVIX where it will basically daily degrade, under the weight of transactional friction and end of day rebalancing.  

The friction is now the problem.  Because now even if a firm and permanent trade policy was implemented by the administration tomorrow, would anybody?  And I do mean Anybody, think that the policy presented would be the final policy?  Even if it truly was the permanent new policy, the assumption would be that the policy would again soon be revised.  So it might take an extended (compared to normal) length of time for the policy to be widely viewed as actual policy.  

Right now "Policy" is a tweet, followed up by a very strong and principled appearance by Lutnick. Followed the next day by a very strong and principled Lutnick, strongly asserting the exact opposite. This friction... in my mind is like death by a thousand tiny cuts dragging on the market.  

 

My one Plus play in the market in this account is Since I am slightly open to a big drop in UVIX, I took a tiny nibble of PLTR Tuesday, with March 7, $85 covered calls.  My net price is $81.04, and I don't get any topside FOMO until $89.70.  But making 5% in 3 days, is how I build my original PLTR stake.  If it closes OTM, tomorrow then I keep the shares and resell more calls on the next steep move upward, farther out for a larger premium. Of course this only works on a rising stock over time.

 

Policy is created every day in a 4 AM tweet.  Then it changes the next day at 4 AM.  Rinse and repeat.

Posted
1 minute ago, VABuckeye said:

Policy is created every day in a 4 AM tweet.  Then it changes the next day at 4 AM.  Rinse and repeat.

image.jpeg.c5a879964d34e1b396e8c018eaae74a0.jpeg

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Posted

Guessing the direction of the market is extremely difficult, and historically a loser's game. Time in the market always beats timing the market. With that said, we are seeing one of the first major events in a long time that has the potential to greatly shape the economic future of the US for the next decade or two. That shaping could be hugely negative, or positive, or somewhere in between. So, given the huge range of potential outcomes, and the fact that the stock market is at a historical high in valuation, moderating on the equity side is perhaps not a bad idea, if you are of an advanced age (5 years or less from retirement, or in retirement), and can afford to live with lower returns for awhile.

Retirees often shoot for 60% equity and 40% fixed income in their portfolios. This provides a moderate return over time without taking on too much equity risk. Early in retirement, many people (myself included) established a bond "tent", shifting more to bonds to reduce the potentially bad scenario of major equity crashes early in retirement, raising the chance of running out of money during retirement. I moved to more bonds because bond rates aren't bad and equity is heavily over-valued right now.  A typical bond tent would be 50% equity 50% fixed income, or 55/45.  I'm actually down to 45% equity 55% fixed because I can afford to be that conservative and still fund retirement expenses, and because there is a decent chance Trump is destroying the economy and it may take a lot of time to recover. While Trump's objective of reducing government spending is good for America (get it from 6% of GDP to 3%), the way he and Musk are doing it (rapid, indescriminate, tariffs, disinformation, etc) will likely throw the country and the world into a recession, if he hasn't already. The Atlant GDP forecast report for 1Q 2025 already has gone negative.

If I were under the age of 40, I'd just hold like the Texans at the Alamo, and would even accelerate investments if the market drops 25%+.

Buckle up.

 

Posted
32 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

If I were under the age of 40, I'd just hold like the Texans at the Alamo, and would even accelerate investments if the market drops 25%+.

How did that work out for them at the end again?

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Posted
36 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Time in the market always beats timing the market

Agree but do you see many (any?) signs that the US stock market is poised to go on a positive run? I feel more comfortable to be fully out of the market today in terms of my retirement plans. Now, I still plan to keep saving ~25% of my wages to retirement and will immediately invest it. And I will slowly start to buy back in with my new cash balance. Maybe upwards of 10% per month. FWIW, I'm in my mid 50s.

Sitting out a 25% dump is actually more powerful in the long run realizing than a 25% rise.

I feel that the conventional wisdom of timing the market is to convince the masses to not overreact to news. But investment paralysis can cost you. I followed this same strategy of large selling into the COVID news. Did I fully maximize the sells and eventual buys? No but I was better off than just watching. Maybe this will work for me, maybe it won't.

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Posted
42 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

How did that work out for them at the end again?

What he meant to say was don't overreact and just stay the course, like the Titanic. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, VABuckeye said:

Policy is created every day in a 4 AM tweet.  Then it changes the next day at 4 AM.  Rinse and repeat.

Great. So our economic policy is being driven by the President’s daily fiber intake.

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Posted

if spy closes below 571 in the next couple of days, look out below. just touched it by a cunts hair about 30 minutes ago. did we already have our bounce off the 200 day moving average this past tuesday or is it going to have a meaningful bounce today. 

Posted
Just now, UTGrad98 said:

image.png.cddb0ca1acffa139f10960f9a9059e19.png

 

Less than 2 hours to get that bad boy up. Power hour at 2pm after all the sellers are done?

Dancing and bouncing off of $570 and change a bunch. 2 hours to go, let's see if we can get through it without another major geopolitical shift or tarrif announcement

Posted

At the outset of this clown show I moved from an 80/20 equity and bond fund allocation to 45 percent value equity, 35 percent international, and 20 percent cash.  International equities are trading at comparatively low valuations and I think are positioned for relative growth in the next five years.

 

 Feeling pretty good about that decision a month in.

Posted
1 minute ago, UTGrad98 said:

bears and bulls duking it out at the 200 day moving average.

feels like if you get a bad jobs number tomorrow that will be the catalyst for the next leg down. 

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Posted
5 hours ago, horn4life said:

My one Plus play in the market in this account is Since I am slightly open to a big drop in UVIX, I took a tiny nibble of PLTR Tuesday, with March 7, $85 covered calls.  My net price is $81.04, and I don't get any topside FOMO until $89.70.  But making 5% in 3 days, is how I build my original PLTR stake.  If it closes OTM, tomorrow then I keep the shares and resell more calls on the next steep move upward, farther out for a larger premium. Of course this only works on a rising stock over time.

Bought some options, then saw it start to lose momentum, and thought... "you fucking dumbass, you believe in uncertainty" and a bet on PLTR is that I was certain that the bottom had come.  So bailed about 10 minutes after I bought those call options.  Thank heaven.  

 

25 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

feels like if you get a bad jobs number tomorrow that will be the catalyst for the next leg down. 

I think we are going to see a trickle of what next week will be an emergency plumber visit.  A little push up, but maybe a few percent at most of the Federal firings? And getting the bonus of that first tariff inflation trickling onto the books as well?  Yikes! March 21 was the date I circled originally back at the first of the year as when I thought the effects of tariffs and uncertainty would either hit, or likely not hit the market.

My big fear is the uncertainty now is becoming a baked in drag on optimism, which drifts to consumer pullbacks, which drift to and assortment of consumer spending reductions.  In what is ultimately a consumer driven US economy, that's not good mojo.  So or a reverse money multiplier effect.

 

Posted

I’m a buyer of the US economy as the best vehicle for creating value in the world long term.

Value corrections, which we probably currently need, don’t bother me. Every time I’ve ever thought some correction has been a new world order I’ve been massively wrong. This goes back a while.

Yes Trump is a dip shit. Yes some of his stuff will have a shitty impact. Yes I’m still plowing in money every paycheck. I’m fine with buying cheaper for a while.

HODL!

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, tbone_ said:

I’m a buyer of the US economy as the best vehicle for creating value in the world long term.

Value corrections, which we probably currently need, don’t bother me. Every time I’ve ever thought some correction has been a new world order I’ve been massively wrong. This goes back a while.

Yes Trump is a dip shit. Yes some of his stuff will have a shitty impact. Yes I’m still plowing in money every paycheck. I’m fine with buying cheaper for a while.

HODL!

Don't disagree at all.  Single best things folks can do is buy a little over time.  One of the riskiest is buying a lot all at once, sadly a big red number taught me from experience.

Right now I am simply trying to profit in a volatile environment.  I still have a strong cash reserve.  Almost bought some AMGN today and it's actually fucking green on my board.  I just don't have to confidence to yet.  But I have no certainty, and thus I have to hedge and spend money to try to protect any gains I get right now.  If I was all negative risk on against the market, I would be killing it.  But the risk would be far too extreme.  I am waiting with cash to buy.  

Good new is Broadcom just put up a good number. I was worried about a bad one. Not for me but for Tech in general,

Edited by horn4life
Posted
1 hour ago, Tailgate said:

Thread is starting to go cloak room…

Not really.  Tariff are fucking whipsawing the market.  You’re welcome to put anyone on ignore if you don’t want to read about it.

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Posted
4 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Great. So our economic policy is being driven by the President’s daily fiber intake.

3 Big Macs and 3 large fries? 27g of dietary fiber.

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