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Posted

Thought we might see a trickle of an upwards push on inflation this morning.  But inflation has held steady.  So markets up a bit this AM, but I am going to hold my negative position at least through next week.  If the unemployment numbers tomorrow do not have much upwards push, the market should react positively.  But not having a bad inflation number today was a very good thing for the market!  

Hard to believe this is only 8th trading day of the month... 

Posted

Never in a million years would I have thought the market would be down 1 hour after the opening bell after todays CPI report, but here we are. I decided to hold my position overnight and Im just flipping off the market right now. I wont lose any money but I never thought it would be negative 1 hour into trading. I know nothing.....

Posted
30 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

Never in a million years would I have thought the market would be down 1 hour after the opening bell after todays CPI report, but here we are. I decided to hold my position overnight and Im just flipping off the market right now. I wont lose any money but I never thought it would be negative 1 hour into trading. I know nothing.....

It’s difficult to have any trust in the CPI number with the constant tariff whipsaw effect. Lagging indicators lose a lot of usefulness when tariffs come and go on a daily basis.

Posted
17 minutes ago, royiv said:

It’s difficult to have any trust in the CPI number with the constant tariff whipsaw effect. Lagging indicators lose a lot of usefulness when tariffs come and go on a daily basis.

It's also hard to tell if the CPI number is showing a gradual cooling of inflation, or has just caught the beginning of consumers snapping their wallets shut out of fear and uncertainity. 

If there wasn't so much policy turmoil, it would look more like a butter smooth former air force pilot landing. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

or has just caught the beginning of consumers snapping their wallets shut out of fear and uncertainty. 

 

I doubt there are many in America who do not directly or indirectly have their income tied to the govt in some form. Especially in the recent whiplash govt changes. Some folks may be a few degrees removed but the dominos could fall and hit almost anyone. Anyone who is not easing back on personal spending is reckless. Which of course is also a description of the average American spending in general.

Posted
34 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I doubt there are many in America who do not directly or indirectly have their income tied to the govt in some form. Especially in the recent whiplash govt changes. Some folks may be a few degrees removed but the dominos could fall and hit almost anyone. Anyone who is not easing back on personal spending is reckless. Which of course is also a description of the average American spending in general.


Quote

The typical American has $8,000 in the bank, according to the Federal Reserve. That's the median transaction account balance as of 2022, which includes savings, checking, money market, call accounts, and prepaid debit cards. The average balance in those accounts is $62,410.  Despite the median account balance being up nearly $2,000 from 2019, just 40% of Americans surveyed by Motley Fool Money feel financially secure. In line with that finding, the Federal Reserve found that only 54% of Americans have savings that could cover three months of expenses and just 45% could cover a $400 expense with money from their checking or savings account.

Almost half of America can’t pay a $400 bill unless they use a credit card.   We are essentially a paycheck to paycheck nation.   When I dabbled in bankruptcy, I realize it made no difference how much money people made, they were still a month or two away from losing their F250s and McMansion.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Almost half of America can’t pay a $400 bill unless they use a credit card.   We are essentially a paycheck to paycheck nation.   When I dabbled in bankruptcy, I realize it made no difference how much money people made, they were still a month or two away from losing their F250s and McMansion.

That reporting is some cnn/msn/forbes level of slop. 

They cited the Fed’s 2022 (SCF) data on transactional account, then mixed in Motley Fool info despite the Fed surveying the exact same question, and then they gave some other supposed Fed number which is actually wrong.

The Fed’s SHED survey reports people feeling *atleast* “financially okay” at 73% for 2022 (much higher than Motley Fool’s 40%)

The question about covering $400 emergency expense asks for cash and cash equivalents, where 63% respondees can do it. The cash equivalent is using credit card fully payable the next cycle.

In fact the report recognized those who responded not paying by cash/equivalents “still likely had access to $400 cash”. Therefore they supplemented the question with what is the size of emergency spending they can handle: 48% atleast $2000, and 68% atleast $500. 

Having 3x months expense in savings is a choice. 54% can cover it from their “rainy say fund” but a further 15% can “draw on other savings” (69% total). Remember the median $8k savings account figure? There’s a further $26k in median CD accounts, and $150k in median bonds (*excluding* retirement accounts).

Besides the Fed, the CFPB also did a 2022 emergency savings and financial security survey. 39% have median emergency savings of $1000, and 37% have $25000 (mean values are $2k/97k). 
 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Besides the Fed, the CFPB also did a 2022 emergency savings and financial security survey. 39% have median emergency savings of $1000, and 37% have $25000 (mean values are $2k/97k). 
 

I hear you, but if someone loses their employment,  $1000 is not gonna get ‘em very far for a whole lot of people.  

Posted
10 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I hear you, but if someone loses their employment,  $1000 is not gonna get ‘em very far for a whole lot of people.  

39% with median $1k savings doesnt mean $1k is all they have access to. 

It is not the balance of their checking and savings (“transactional”) accounts  

This is money “earmarked” specifically for emergency. And 39% is the bucket of people who earmark less than 1mo income (not expense) for emergencies. 

These people cover the 50th percentile in financial metrics, and their financial accounts and non-financial assets are far greater than $1k.

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