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Posted

Thought we might see a trickle of an upwards push on inflation this morning.  But inflation has held steady.  So markets up a bit this AM, but I am going to hold my negative position at least through next week.  If the unemployment numbers tomorrow do not have much upwards push, the market should react positively.  But not having a bad inflation number today was a very good thing for the market!  

Hard to believe this is only 8th trading day of the month... 

Posted

Never in a million years would I have thought the market would be down 1 hour after the opening bell after todays CPI report, but here we are. I decided to hold my position overnight and Im just flipping off the market right now. I wont lose any money but I never thought it would be negative 1 hour into trading. I know nothing.....

Posted
  On 3/12/2025 at 3:24 PM, UTGrad98 said:

Never in a million years would I have thought the market would be down 1 hour after the opening bell after todays CPI report, but here we are. I decided to hold my position overnight and Im just flipping off the market right now. I wont lose any money but I never thought it would be negative 1 hour into trading. I know nothing.....

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It’s difficult to have any trust in the CPI number with the constant tariff whipsaw effect. Lagging indicators lose a lot of usefulness when tariffs come and go on a daily basis.

Posted
  On 3/12/2025 at 3:57 PM, royiv said:

It’s difficult to have any trust in the CPI number with the constant tariff whipsaw effect. Lagging indicators lose a lot of usefulness when tariffs come and go on a daily basis.

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It's also hard to tell if the CPI number is showing a gradual cooling of inflation, or has just caught the beginning of consumers snapping their wallets shut out of fear and uncertainity. 

If there wasn't so much policy turmoil, it would look more like a butter smooth former air force pilot landing. 

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Posted
  On 3/12/2025 at 4:16 PM, Bateshorn said:

or has just caught the beginning of consumers snapping their wallets shut out of fear and uncertainty. 

 

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I doubt there are many in America who do not directly or indirectly have their income tied to the govt in some form. Especially in the recent whiplash govt changes. Some folks may be a few degrees removed but the dominos could fall and hit almost anyone. Anyone who is not easing back on personal spending is reckless. Which of course is also a description of the average American spending in general.

Posted
  On 3/12/2025 at 5:28 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I doubt there are many in America who do not directly or indirectly have their income tied to the govt in some form. Especially in the recent whiplash govt changes. Some folks may be a few degrees removed but the dominos could fall and hit almost anyone. Anyone who is not easing back on personal spending is reckless. Which of course is also a description of the average American spending in general.

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  Quote

The typical American has $8,000 in the bank, according to the Federal Reserve. That's the median transaction account balance as of 2022, which includes savings, checking, money market, call accounts, and prepaid debit cards. The average balance in those accounts is $62,410.  Despite the median account balance being up nearly $2,000 from 2019, just 40% of Americans surveyed by Motley Fool Money feel financially secure. In line with that finding, the Federal Reserve found that only 54% of Americans have savings that could cover three months of expenses and just 45% could cover a $400 expense with money from their checking or savings account.

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Almost half of America can’t pay a $400 bill unless they use a credit card.   We are essentially a paycheck to paycheck nation.   When I dabbled in bankruptcy, I realize it made no difference how much money people made, they were still a month or two away from losing their F250s and McMansion.

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Posted
  On 3/12/2025 at 7:21 PM, Gatorubet said:

Almost half of America can’t pay a $400 bill unless they use a credit card.   We are essentially a paycheck to paycheck nation.   When I dabbled in bankruptcy, I realize it made no difference how much money people made, they were still a month or two away from losing their F250s and McMansion.

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That reporting is some cnn/msn/forbes level of slop. 

They cited the Fed’s 2022 (SCF) data on transactional account, then mixed in Motley Fool info despite the Fed surveying the exact same question, and then they gave some other supposed Fed number which is actually wrong.

The Fed’s SHED survey reports people feeling *atleast* “financially okay” at 73% for 2022 (much higher than Motley Fool’s 40%)

The question about covering $400 emergency expense asks for cash and cash equivalents, where 63% respondees can do it. The cash equivalent is using credit card fully payable the next cycle.

In fact the report recognized those who responded not paying by cash/equivalents “still likely had access to $400 cash”. Therefore they supplemented the question with what is the size of emergency spending they can handle: 48% atleast $2000, and 68% atleast $500. 

Having 3x months expense in savings is a choice. 54% can cover it from their “rainy say fund” but a further 15% can “draw on other savings” (69% total). Remember the median $8k savings account figure? There’s a further $26k in median CD accounts, and $150k in median bonds (*excluding* retirement accounts).

Besides the Fed, the CFPB also did a 2022 emergency savings and financial security survey. 39% have median emergency savings of $1000, and 37% have $25000 (mean values are $2k/97k). 
 

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Posted
  On 3/12/2025 at 9:31 PM, 52-80 said:

Besides the Fed, the CFPB also did a 2022 emergency savings and financial security survey. 39% have median emergency savings of $1000, and 37% have $25000 (mean values are $2k/97k). 
 

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I hear you, but if someone loses their employment,  $1000 is not gonna get ‘em very far for a whole lot of people.  

Posted
  On 3/12/2025 at 9:40 PM, Gatorubet said:

I hear you, but if someone loses their employment,  $1000 is not gonna get ‘em very far for a whole lot of people.  

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39% with median $1k savings doesnt mean $1k is all they have access to. 

It is not the balance of their checking and savings (“transactional”) accounts  

This is money “earmarked” specifically for emergency. And 39% is the bucket of people who earmark less than 1mo income (not expense) for emergencies. 

These people cover the 50th percentile in financial metrics, and their financial accounts and non-financial assets are far greater than $1k.

Posted
  On 3/12/2025 at 9:50 PM, 52-80 said:

39% with median $1k savings doesnt mean $1k is all they have access to. 

It is not the balance of their checking and savings (“transactional”) accounts  

This is money “earmarked” specifically for emergency. And 39% is the bucket of people who earmark less than 1mo income (not expense) for emergencies. 

These people cover the 50th percentile in financial metrics, and their financial accounts and non-financial assets are far greater than $1k.

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Okay. Tesla prices have been dropping all year, which means that everybody's waiting for it to hit rock bottom so they can buy cheap and go long. Which means that the Tesla shareholders are goin' bat-shit. They're saying, "Hey, we're losing all our goddamn money, and Christmas is just around the corner, and I ain't gonna have no money to buy my son the G.I. Joe with the kung-fu grip, right? And my wife won't f... my wife won't make love to me 'cuz I ain't got no money, right?" So they're panicking right now, they're screaming "SELL! SELL!" to get out before the price keeps dropping. They're panicking out there right now! I can feel it!

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Posted (edited)

Te more I hear Howard Lutnick talk, the more comfortable I am shorting this market.  Because as Lutnick just told me this 1st quarter is all Biden, Second quarter might be Biden's, and third quarter will be Trump's.  You see Lutnick did present an exact economic model of the usual Presidency.  As usually it takes at least several quarters of gradual change as policies trickle though the economy.  That is indeed the norm.  But Lutnick KNOWS that this is not a normal transition and that the tariffs take more like a few weeks or two months to start seeing that inflation.  The complete disconnects with reality that Secretary Lutnick repeatedly espouses, are what make me have such grave concerns for this market.

You can say anything politically.  But the problem is folks don't believe clear bullshit when it comes to their money.  And pretending that this shock to the markets is actually "Biden's fault" to own?  Which means that the market is actually betting against the Biden policies of the past?  And is no longer forward looking?

I gook a pretty good loss yesterday, and looking at this mornings numbers I should be facing another decent loss, Instead, after hearing Lutnick's delusion, I can only assume his delusion is a reflection of cabinet level economic discussions?  Fucking Lutnick, now I almost feel obligated to add to my fucking risky bets against this market, even in anticipation of a beating.  Or as Lutnick would say... against Biden's market... 

Another teeny tiny bit of UVIX premarket.

 

Edited by horn4life
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Posted
  On 3/12/2025 at 9:50 PM, 52-80 said:

39% with median $1k savings doesnt mean $1k is all they have access to. 

It is not the balance of their checking and savings (“transactional”) accounts  

This is money “earmarked” specifically for emergency. And 39% is the bucket of people who earmark less than 1mo income (not expense) for emergencies. 

These people cover the 50th percentile in financial metrics, and their financial accounts and non-financial assets are far greater than $1k.

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I don't keep shit in my checking account.  I zero it out at the end of the month so we start at zero on the 1st.  Any leftover money is an extra investment in our brokerage account. I also never have more than $20K in my savings account.  In my 52 years, I've never had a need for emergency money that had to be paid instantly.  I can't even think of a non-criminal scenario where I would needs lots of cash immediately.

 

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Posted
  On 3/13/2025 at 1:04 PM, horn4life said:

Te more I hear Howard Lutnick talk, the more comfortable I am shorting this market.  Because as Lutnick just told me this 1st quarter is all Biden, Second quarter might be Biden's, and third quarter will be Trump's.  You see Lutnick did present an exact economic model of the usual Presidency.  As usually it takes at least several quarters of gradual change as policies trickle though the economy.  That is indeed the norm.  But Lutnick KNOWS that this is not a normal transition and that the tariffs take more like a few weeks or two months to start seeing that inflation.  The complete disconnects with reality that Secretary Lutnick repeatedly espouses, are what make me have such grave concerns for this market.

You can say anything politically.  But the problem is folks don't believe clear bullshit when it comes to their money.  And pretending that this shock to the markets is actually "Biden's fault" to own?  Which means that the market is actually betting against the Biden policies of the past?  And is no longer forward looking?

I gook a pretty good loss yesterday, and looking at this mornings numbers I should be facing another decent loss, Instead, after hearing Lutnick's delusion, I can only assume his delusion is a reflection of cabinet level economic discussions?  Fucking Lutnick, now I almost feel obligated to add to my fucking risky bets against this market, even in anticipation of a beating.  Or as Lutnick would say... against Biden's market... 

Another teeny tiny bit of UVIX premarket.

 

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Yeah, you don't need to wade into politics to see that the administration is willing to tank the market and economy for their ideology. 

Posted

We are getting dangerously close to falling off a cliff. SPY 551 needs to hold. It's crazy with the good news the market has received the past 2 days coupled with the typical 10% correction technical  bounce. Can't fight our own government. I got out with a smaller gain than I had anticipated. I'm sure the bounce will be today. Oh well. There will be other opportunities.

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Posted
  On 3/13/2025 at 3:29 PM, Hefeweizen said:

Bessent just said he’s comfortable with some disruptions.   We’re in for a rough ride when the government is talking down the market.

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Shit having Lutnick and Bessent talk... is simply not good for the market.  Better for neither of them to come on the financial news channels.  As Bessent was explaining how the gas price decline was all Trump, and Lutnick was explaining how the market fall is actually Biden's economy. Very confusing messaging less than two hours apart.  Especially when folks are watching their 401K moving in a concerning direction.

Posted (edited)

Bessent and Lutnick are speaking to an audience of 1, who is probably watching. They're not speaking to the American or investing public.

If they say anything that could be viewed as negative to the current administration, they will be fired or at a minimum yelled at. It's always amazing to me that accomplished people will work in White House Administrations. I see the Sec of Treasury as a step down for a bank teller much less a CEO.

 

 

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
Posted

Well lets go to the next set of trading bounces.  15% drop is SPY 521. 20% drop is SPY 490. Here are the fibonacci retracements from the 350 SPY low in OCt 2022. Not sure if that low is what the pros use but seems as good as any.

52 week low = 52 Week Range 493.86 - 613.23

image.png.27c340ee49b55e8ccabe106aaba7b2d4.png

 

The 490-493 range "should" have a big bounce if/when we get that far.

Posted
  On 3/13/2025 at 3:38 PM, UTGrad98 said:

We are getting dangerously close to falling off a cliff. SPY 551 needs to hold. It's crazy with the good news the market has received the past 2 days coupled with the typical 10% correction technical  bounce. Can't fight our own government. I got out with a smaller gain than I had anticipated. I'm sure the bounce will be today. Oh well. There will be other opportunities.

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Hey - my SPY 570/580 puts don't like that talk at all 🙄

Posted

I just walked out into my cul-de-sac and there was a smoking hot Italian milf, whose dog was sniffing a tree. Turns out she moved in last week several doors down and is an investment advisor.

I was running late to an appointment so I just sort of shouted at her goddamnit apples at 208 let’s schedule a cuppa. Stay tuned.

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Posted
  On 3/13/2025 at 8:37 PM, BearSchlong said:

I just walked out into my cul-de-sac and there was a smoking hot Italian milf, whose dog was sniffing a tree. Turns out she moved in last week several doors down and is an investment advisor.

I was running late to an appointment so I just sort of shouted at her goddamnit apples at 208 let’s schedule a cuppa. Stay tuned.

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Schlong you’re a Surly OG.  We wonder why you haven’t posted picsz

Posted (edited)

Without starting a new topic, I suppose this is the best place for this info. 

Everything you wanted to know (and probably way more) about trade deficits and what they actually mean about our economy.

Here's the summary from the end of the piece (titled "Things Everyone Should Know About Trade Deficits"):

So, trade deficits don’t hurt jobs or growth, aren’t trade or economic scoreboards (especially bilateral ones), and can’t be fixed by things like tariffs or subsidies. They’re not a drag on growth, and they don’t represent lost American wealth or a debt we must repay. Trade balances can tell us stuff about an economy—but much less about a nation’s trade policy and much more about its citizens spending and saving, as well as the economic and noneconomic forces affecting those millions of individual decisions. In the United States, much of the stuff our trade deficit reflects isn’t a problem and, in the case of our attractiveness as a global investment destination or the U.S. dollar’s importance in international commerce, is decidedly a good thing. And outside of a recession or the world ditching the dollar, government efforts to shrink the trade deficit will fail unless they fundamentally change Americans’ savings and investment decisions or unless Washington finally gets its fiscal house in order. Indeed, if policymakers and wonks—despite all the above—still feel compelled to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, eliminating our bloated federal deficits would be the most straightforward and benign way to do it.

Funny how none of the trade deficit worriers ever mention that.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Edited by KYHorn
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Posted
  On 3/13/2025 at 6:36 PM, 52-80 said:

Gold is the new stonk

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SPY seems like the new stonk.

We've all known that index is not diversified and is too heavy on a few names that have driven the growth. I got an IRA that is 100% is SPY and the last few days have been an absolutely beating. The accounts that are a mix of individuals stocks with low SPY exposure have done ok. In those I have basically been trying to trade out SPY with BRK. 

Posted

I have seen this type of rally before. Back in 2022.  Just a horrible consumer sentiment number today and the markets shrugged it off. Get rid of all the sellers, even the ones who sell right after a big resistance floor was overtaken, ie the 10% correction. Who is left after that but the buyers? Had great inflation numbers Wednesday and Thursday but it didn't matter. Had a horrible report today and it didn't matter. The plan was in place by the big institutions? Am I doing that right? Very interesting. Well, keep learning I guess.

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Posted
  13 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

I have seen this type of rally before. Back in 2022.  Just a horrible consumer sentiment number today and the markets shrugged it off. Get rid of all the sellers, even the ones who sell right after a big resistance floor was overtaken, ie the 10% correction. Who is left after that but the buyers? Had great inflation numbers Wednesday and Thursday but it didn't matter. Had a horrible report today and it didn't matter. The plan was in place by the big institutions? Am I doing that right? Very interesting. Well, keep learning I guess.

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So you think the selling is flushed out?   IF that's the case all may gains betting against the market will evaporate.

I am thinking this is more that the debt ceiling is apparently going to be raised?  But is that what has been dragging on the market?  OR is this an upward bounce to sell on?  

The government not shutting down is very good news.  But with a shit consumer sentiment number... Inflation number and jobs were honestly better than I thought they could be, this week. March 21 was my circled in red date.  So we will see.  But I am bleeding today for sure.  

Posted

Another advisor friend sent me this yesterday.... per one of their major analysts....

 

The market is oversold, but we feel that we may not have seen the bottom yet. We are approximately 40% in cash, and we are looking for opportunities when the HCM Pivot Point® system brings us back into the market.
This is the fifth fastest 10% correction of the S&P 500 in 75 years. Drops like this have a very strong tendency to be a huge overreaction. Big disruptions like we are experiencing with the tariff issue can create big opportunities, and we think this selloff is a big overreaction. If you look back at the other selloffs, they based and moved higher in short order. The stock market was higher at 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M later:
5 of 6 times, higher 1M later (except covid)
6 of 6 times, higher 3M later, median gain 9%
6 of 6 times, higher 6M later, median gain 15%
6 of 6 times, higher 12M later, median gain 21%
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Posted

I think the selling is flushed out for now but what do I know. Ive only been really following market trends for 4 or 5 years now ( and really feeling their impact). Lets see if the gains hold into the close today like I hoped they would every day this week while I held, but didnt. I always figured we'd bounced back to the 200 DMA and then from there, the market would make a decision on where to go. Lets see if it goes to 572 ish over the next few days. Maybe even a bit higher before another major move in either direction. Again, this is only if the institutional money is all thinking and planning the same thing based off other corrections. Data be damned. My guess is we get back to around 572 area on Tues Wed next week and then make a move based on whatever the fed does Wednesday.

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Posted
  12 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

I think the selling is flushed out for now but what do I know. Ive only been really following market trends for 4 or 5 years now ( and really feeling their impact). Lets see if the gains hold into the close today like I hoped they would every day this week while I held, but didnt. I always figured we'd bounced back to the 200 DMA and then from there, the market would make a decision on where to go. Lets see if it goes to 572 ish over the next few days. Maybe even a bit higher before another major move in either direction. Again, this is only if the institutional money is all thinking and planning the same thing based off other corrections. Data be damned. My guess is we get back to around 572 area on Tues Wed next week and then make a move based on whatever the fed does Wednesday.

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I don't see how the Fed can with any confidence do much of anything, except wait for more data.   Main thing is today, and how does the day finish.  Do the gains hold? Or does it sell off into the close.  If they hold I may make a pretty big trim and take the profits and cut exposure. 

 

Posted
  12 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Another advisor friend sent me this yesterday.... per one of their major analysts....

 

The market is oversold, but we feel that we may not have seen the bottom yet. We are approximately 40% in cash, and we are looking for opportunities when the HCM Pivot Point® system brings us back into the market.
This is the fifth fastest 10% correction of the S&P 500 in 75 years. Drops like this have a very strong tendency to be a huge overreaction. Big disruptions like we are experiencing with the tariff issue can create big opportunities, and we think this selloff is a big overreaction. If you look back at the other selloffs, they based and moved higher in short order. The stock market was higher at 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M later:
5 of 6 times, higher 1M later (except covid)
6 of 6 times, higher 3M later, median gain 9%
6 of 6 times, higher 6M later, median gain 15%
6 of 6 times, higher 12M later, median gain 21%
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I have some calls in that 3m window that would sure love to see that happen. 

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Posted

Another thing Im keeping track of is the 5 day moving average. We pushed up against it the past few days and then sold off immediately and couldnt hold it (It was at around 562-564 earlier in the week). Today seems much more manageable in terms of breaking through.

image.png.b506e80ce582469a53dee0d181c97fe2.png

Again this is the information Im filing away for the next 10% correction in say 2 or 3 years from now. I wont bet this type of money unless the benefits outweigh the risk. For me, its the 10% and 20% initial drops where I feel the benefit outweighs the risk. Im conservative by nature and wont mess with the good thing I have going with my semi-retirement etc etc. The rest of my money is having a good day today. My money market account I was a day late in holding. I bought Tues and held until Thursday mid morning. They really make the little guy sweat it out. Buying at the 10% mark and then having it go negative before it explodes upward really messes with your psyche. 

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Posted
  12 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Another advisor friend sent me this yesterday.... per one of their major analysts....

 

The market is oversold, but we feel that we may not have seen the bottom yet. We are approximately 40% in cash, and we are looking for opportunities when the HCM Pivot Point® system brings us back into the market.
This is the fifth fastest 10% correction of the S&P 500 in 75 years. Drops like this have a very strong tendency to be a huge overreaction. Big disruptions like we are experiencing with the tariff issue can create big opportunities, and we think this selloff is a big overreaction. If you look back at the other selloffs, they based and moved higher in short order. The stock market was higher at 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M later:
5 of 6 times, higher 1M later (except covid)
6 of 6 times, higher 3M later, median gain 9%
6 of 6 times, higher 6M later, median gain 15%
6 of 6 times, higher 12M later, median gain 21%
Expand  

This same came though on a CNBC noon chart.

But is this a normal market?  To me I should have gotten the ass whipping I got today, two days ago, after good jobless and inflation news??? Not good consumer sentiment (for a consumer driven economy) but no shutdown (at least as of now). No shutdown was priced in more to the downside, than consumer confidence was priced to the upside? WTF

I honestly would have thought the market would have reacted negatively to the consumer negativity, than positively to no gov't shutdown.  Or it could just be taking that data from above quote, and the algorithm says buy?  Which honestly is a decent explanation. 

 

Posted
  9 hours ago, horn4life said:

This same came though on a CNBC noon chart.

But is this a normal market?  To me I should have gotten the ass whipping I got today, two days ago, after good jobless and inflation news??? Not good consumer sentiment (for a consumer driven economy) but no shutdown (at least as of now). No shutdown was priced in more to the downside, than consumer confidence was priced to the upside? WTF

I honestly would have thought the market would have reacted negatively to the consumer negativity, than positively to no gov't shutdown.  Or it could just be taking that data from above quote, and the algorithm says buy?  Which honestly is a decent explanation. 

 

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It is and it isn't.  There's a lot going on right now.  Some bad with good intent and some good with good intent.  

Posted
  12 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

If you look back at the other selloffs, they based and moved higher in short order. The stock market was higher at 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M later:

 
5 of 6 times, higher 1M later (except covid)
6 of 6 times, higher 3M later, median gain 9%
6 of 6 times, higher 6M later, median gain 15%
6 of 6 times, higher 12M later, median gain 21%
Expand  

Question: how many of those other times did you have a Russian asset attacking our closest friends, siding with our greatest enemy, and his administration destroying all of the federal agencies that protect our government interests?

Posted

I’m not as optimistic. This is obvious market manipulation with tariffs on then off driving the swings to the benefit of those who are in the circle. 
 

we’re not in the circle. 
 

expect the opposite of what you would normally expect 

image.thumb.jpeg.85c2e5f225ade8dd7d4ae09d192d10d8.jpeg

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