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Posted
23 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

Let's say there is something to this. Since the institutions bought the technical bottom, then they would not want any tariff talk this weekend and at least until Wednesday afternoon. You could go a step further and say when Powell holds rates steady it gives perfect cover for trump to say Powell  made a huge mistake by not cutting and that he doomed our economy with his stupidity. Then tariff escalation resumes and stocks start to fall again down to bear market levels. 

Seems pretty quick to do as a rebound like this typically lasts longer than 3 or 4 trading sessions but let's see what next week brings.

And that's not even talking about the real possibility there is an actual recession which has already started even without all the tariff talks to amplify it over the past month. 

While it hasn’t been consistent, he seems to get mouthy about tariffs after a green day.

Posted

The big boys can manipulate the market if they collude, but mainly the big boys have enough cash at all times to buy when there is blood in the streets. But I believe also that over time even the big boys cannot control the markets completely.  If you were fully invested on February 1, you didn't have cash on the sidelines to take advantage of the fall.  The average guys 401K is fully invested, and it just rides up and down, with the longer timelines smoothing out the rough patches.  But I do agree that up is down right now... so how do I choose what to bet on?  I can't.  So by default, I am getting against.  

I had to search for this as I heard somebody else repeating these words last week.  But this is basically why I am currently against the market. 

Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded. It’s the ultimate voting machine, reflecting prospects for earnings growth, stability, liquidity, inflation, taxation and predictable rule of law.

While market consensus assumed the administration would carefully balance inflationary, anti-growth policies with pro-growth policies, it has come storming out of the gate in the first fifty days with more of the former than the latter.    - Michael Cembalest

I honestly had no idea who this guy was, but this statement stuck in my mind.  He is apparently and analyst for J.P. Morgan and the above words were the opening for him market analysis research paper in Eye on the Market  Interesting read, but lengthy especially if you read all the footnotes. Eye on the Market - Fifty Shades of Grey.  Some interesting reading explaining why this is NOT a normal market, and relying on normal market history and indicators may not be reliable in a world of tariffs.  

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Posted

Tariffs are getting headlines but the elephant in the room is the need to refinance $10 trillion in treasuries in next 12 months. The administration wants to drive interest rates as low as possible and the stock market is acceptable collateral damage in short run. Got to drop inflation and/or cause a flight to safety to drop those yields. If Congress could stop spending 3 trillion a year more than we make that would be really neat too.
 

At this point pretty good argument stocks still too rich when SPX earnings yield is even with 10 year. Something has to give here. Sure wouldn’t make any rich bets either way right now. 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Tariffs are getting headlines but the elephant in the room is the need to refinance $10 trillion in treasuries in next 12 months. The administration wants to drive interest rates as low as possible and the stock market is acceptable collateral damage in short run. Got to drop inflation and/or cause a flight to safety to drop those yields. If Congress could stop spending 3 trillion a year more than we make that would be really neat too.
 

At this point pretty good argument stocks still too rich when SPX earnings yield is even with 10 year. Something has to give here. Sure wouldn’t make any rich bets either way right now. 

Rather in line with what was said above... The ongoing tax cuts for the ultra wealthy holding all the money have induced the extreme levels of debt. If the markets have to take a beating and harm all the people who have been getting their taxes cut (as well as everyone else along for the ride) just so things get back into equilibrium.

And it also remains to be seen what happens with the Party favored businesses and if they get bailed out as the power of the purse is consolidated into the executive 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Rather in line with what was said above... The ongoing tax cuts for the ultra wealthy holding all the money have induced the extreme levels of debt. If the markets have to take a beating and harm all the people who have been getting their taxes cut (as well as everyone else along for the ride) just so things get back into equilibrium.

And it also remains to be seen what happens with the Party favored businesses and if they get bailed out as the power of the purse is consolidated into the executive 

Well shit... My street-hustle light just came on.

Leon and Bezos are already lined up and they can withstand the storm. We know the auto-makers are gonna fall in line like they always do. Big Farm and Big Pharma have been making us sick for so long, that they probably started this whole Trump Train. Where are the Waltons? They are the front line.

The President is gonna try to line up the Commercial team vs the Fed Board of Directors. The Board has already declared they won't be bullied and don't report to the President. So the President will sell them from the bottom.

Either that or he thinks tariffs by themselves will lead to 'a deal' to refi foreign held debt... (Sounds crazy, but I could see some quid pro quo with China.)

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Posted
On 3/15/2025 at 11:19 AM, Slacks said:

Well shit... My street-hustle light just came on.

Leon and Bezos are already lined up and they can withstand the storm. We know the auto-makers are gonna fall in line like they always do. Big Farm and Big Pharma have been making us sick for so long, that they probably started this whole Trump Train. Where are the Waltons? They are the front line.

The President is gonna try to line up the Commercial team vs the Fed Board of Directors. The Board has already declared they won't be bullied and don't report to the President. So the President will sell them from the bottom.

Either that or he thinks tariffs by themselves will lead to 'a deal' to refi foreign held debt... (Sounds crazy, but I could see some quid pro quo with China.)

I thought less than 25% of our national debt is foreign owned, and only about 2% owned by China. Hardly gonna fix the problem. 

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Posted
17 hours ago, Blotto said:

I thought less than 25% of our national debt is foreign owned, and only about 2% owned by China. Hardly gonna fix the problem. 

We really should be trying to figure a way to shore things up with Japan.  Our debt owned by Japan is far more damaging than that owned by China.  

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Posted (edited)
On 3/15/2025 at 5:19 PM, Slacks said:

Either that or he thinks tariffs by themselves will lead to 'a deal' to refi foreign held debt... (Sounds crazy, but I could see some quid pro quo with China.)

Why would they need to make a direct/private deal to refi existing obligations? As debt comes due they just continue to roll it forward on the public market. Treasury has never needed to do anything else.  All the tariff stuff is just simple and plain national protectionism.

Edited by 52-80
Posted

Most of the national debt is actually held by the federal government. It's money we owe ourselves. It's how Social Security will cover it's revenue short fall in a few year's if the current tax and benefit numbers aren't adjusted. 

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Posted

Exactly who owns the debt is a fairly meaningless quibble. The bonds are payment obligations. If the bank of japan doesnt get the money its owed, instead of the SS office, or a pension fund, or a private investor, i'd say it's almost equally as bad.

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Posted
1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

Exactly who owns the debt is a fairly meaningless quibble. The bonds are payment obligations. If the bank of japan doesnt get the money its owed, instead of the SS office, or a pension fund, or a private investor, i'd say it's almost equally as bad.

That's not what I'm implying.  I'm simply pointing out ownership, and to be wary of arguments that are reduced down to "FURNERS OWN AMEERICA!!!"  

I agree with your broader point: A missed bond payment is a missed bond payment. And would be very bad. 

Posted

Maybe we should miss a payment, let the market tank, buy it all back on the cheap. Then start making payments again.

US bonds would still be the best relative alternative there is.

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Posted
13 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Maybe we should miss a payment, let the market tank, buy it all back on the cheap. Then start making payments again.

US bonds would still be the best relative alternative there is.

I’m not sure I agree with your detective work there.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

That's not what I'm implying.  I'm simply pointing out ownership, and to be wary of arguments that are reduced down to "FURNERS OWN AMEERICA!!!"  

I agree with your broader point: A missed bond payment is a missed bond payment. And would be very bad. 

The big thing with Japan is that they've had negative rates for so long that the net retiring Japanese citizen actually owns a bunch of US debt via the carry trade.  

-BoJ issues debt, countered by an equivalent purchase of US Treasuries (they actually make money hand over fist on this)

-Japanese citizen has to start liquidating investments to fund retirement, some of their money is tied to US treasuries via BoJ bonds

-BoJ sells Treasuries to raise cash and buy back their own bonds.

 

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