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Posted
23 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

Let's say there is something to this. Since the institutions bought the technical bottom, then they would not want any tariff talk this weekend and at least until Wednesday afternoon. You could go a step further and say when Powell holds rates steady it gives perfect cover for trump to say Powell  made a huge mistake by not cutting and that he doomed our economy with his stupidity. Then tariff escalation resumes and stocks start to fall again down to bear market levels. 

Seems pretty quick to do as a rebound like this typically lasts longer than 3 or 4 trading sessions but let's see what next week brings.

And that's not even talking about the real possibility there is an actual recession which has already started even without all the tariff talks to amplify it over the past month. 

While it hasn’t been consistent, he seems to get mouthy about tariffs after a green day.

Posted

The big boys can manipulate the market if they collude, but mainly the big boys have enough cash at all times to buy when there is blood in the streets. But I believe also that over time even the big boys cannot control the markets completely.  If you were fully invested on February 1, you didn't have cash on the sidelines to take advantage of the fall.  The average guys 401K is fully invested, and it just rides up and down, with the longer timelines smoothing out the rough patches.  But I do agree that up is down right now... so how do I choose what to bet on?  I can't.  So by default, I am getting against.  

I had to search for this as I heard somebody else repeating these words last week.  But this is basically why I am currently against the market. 

Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded. It’s the ultimate voting machine, reflecting prospects for earnings growth, stability, liquidity, inflation, taxation and predictable rule of law.

While market consensus assumed the administration would carefully balance inflationary, anti-growth policies with pro-growth policies, it has come storming out of the gate in the first fifty days with more of the former than the latter.    - Michael Cembalest

I honestly had no idea who this guy was, but this statement stuck in my mind.  He is apparently and analyst for J.P. Morgan and the above words were the opening for him market analysis research paper in Eye on the Market  Interesting read, but lengthy especially if you read all the footnotes. Eye on the Market - Fifty Shades of Grey.  Some interesting reading explaining why this is NOT a normal market, and relying on normal market history and indicators may not be reliable in a world of tariffs.  

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Posted

Tariffs are getting headlines but the elephant in the room is the need to refinance $10 trillion in treasuries in next 12 months. The administration wants to drive interest rates as low as possible and the stock market is acceptable collateral damage in short run. Got to drop inflation and/or cause a flight to safety to drop those yields. If Congress could stop spending 3 trillion a year more than we make that would be really neat too.
 

At this point pretty good argument stocks still too rich when SPX earnings yield is even with 10 year. Something has to give here. Sure wouldn’t make any rich bets either way right now. 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Tariffs are getting headlines but the elephant in the room is the need to refinance $10 trillion in treasuries in next 12 months. The administration wants to drive interest rates as low as possible and the stock market is acceptable collateral damage in short run. Got to drop inflation and/or cause a flight to safety to drop those yields. If Congress could stop spending 3 trillion a year more than we make that would be really neat too.
 

At this point pretty good argument stocks still too rich when SPX earnings yield is even with 10 year. Something has to give here. Sure wouldn’t make any rich bets either way right now. 

Rather in line with what was said above... The ongoing tax cuts for the ultra wealthy holding all the money have induced the extreme levels of debt. If the markets have to take a beating and harm all the people who have been getting their taxes cut (as well as everyone else along for the ride) just so things get back into equilibrium.

And it also remains to be seen what happens with the Party favored businesses and if they get bailed out as the power of the purse is consolidated into the executive 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Rather in line with what was said above... The ongoing tax cuts for the ultra wealthy holding all the money have induced the extreme levels of debt. If the markets have to take a beating and harm all the people who have been getting their taxes cut (as well as everyone else along for the ride) just so things get back into equilibrium.

And it also remains to be seen what happens with the Party favored businesses and if they get bailed out as the power of the purse is consolidated into the executive 

Well shit... My street-hustle light just came on.

Leon and Bezos are already lined up and they can withstand the storm. We know the auto-makers are gonna fall in line like they always do. Big Farm and Big Pharma have been making us sick for so long, that they probably started this whole Trump Train. Where are the Waltons? They are the front line.

The President is gonna try to line up the Commercial team vs the Fed Board of Directors. The Board has already declared they won't be bullied and don't report to the President. So the President will sell them from the bottom.

Either that or he thinks tariffs by themselves will lead to 'a deal' to refi foreign held debt... (Sounds crazy, but I could see some quid pro quo with China.)

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