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Posted
23 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

Let's say there is something to this. Since the institutions bought the technical bottom, then they would not want any tariff talk this weekend and at least until Wednesday afternoon. You could go a step further and say when Powell holds rates steady it gives perfect cover for trump to say Powell  made a huge mistake by not cutting and that he doomed our economy with his stupidity. Then tariff escalation resumes and stocks start to fall again down to bear market levels. 

Seems pretty quick to do as a rebound like this typically lasts longer than 3 or 4 trading sessions but let's see what next week brings.

And that's not even talking about the real possibility there is an actual recession which has already started even without all the tariff talks to amplify it over the past month. 

While it hasn’t been consistent, he seems to get mouthy about tariffs after a green day.

Posted

The big boys can manipulate the market if they collude, but mainly the big boys have enough cash at all times to buy when there is blood in the streets. But I believe also that over time even the big boys cannot control the markets completely.  If you were fully invested on February 1, you didn't have cash on the sidelines to take advantage of the fall.  The average guys 401K is fully invested, and it just rides up and down, with the longer timelines smoothing out the rough patches.  But I do agree that up is down right now... so how do I choose what to bet on?  I can't.  So by default, I am getting against.  

I had to search for this as I heard somebody else repeating these words last week.  But this is basically why I am currently against the market. 

Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it cannot be primaried before the next midterm elections; and it cannot be seized, nationalized or invaded. It’s the ultimate voting machine, reflecting prospects for earnings growth, stability, liquidity, inflation, taxation and predictable rule of law.

While market consensus assumed the administration would carefully balance inflationary, anti-growth policies with pro-growth policies, it has come storming out of the gate in the first fifty days with more of the former than the latter.    - Michael Cembalest

I honestly had no idea who this guy was, but this statement stuck in my mind.  He is apparently and analyst for J.P. Morgan and the above words were the opening for him market analysis research paper in Eye on the Market  Interesting read, but lengthy especially if you read all the footnotes. Eye on the Market - Fifty Shades of Grey.  Some interesting reading explaining why this is NOT a normal market, and relying on normal market history and indicators may not be reliable in a world of tariffs.  

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Posted

Tariffs are getting headlines but the elephant in the room is the need to refinance $10 trillion in treasuries in next 12 months. The administration wants to drive interest rates as low as possible and the stock market is acceptable collateral damage in short run. Got to drop inflation and/or cause a flight to safety to drop those yields. If Congress could stop spending 3 trillion a year more than we make that would be really neat too.
 

At this point pretty good argument stocks still too rich when SPX earnings yield is even with 10 year. Something has to give here. Sure wouldn’t make any rich bets either way right now. 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Tariffs are getting headlines but the elephant in the room is the need to refinance $10 trillion in treasuries in next 12 months. The administration wants to drive interest rates as low as possible and the stock market is acceptable collateral damage in short run. Got to drop inflation and/or cause a flight to safety to drop those yields. If Congress could stop spending 3 trillion a year more than we make that would be really neat too.
 

At this point pretty good argument stocks still too rich when SPX earnings yield is even with 10 year. Something has to give here. Sure wouldn’t make any rich bets either way right now. 

Rather in line with what was said above... The ongoing tax cuts for the ultra wealthy holding all the money have induced the extreme levels of debt. If the markets have to take a beating and harm all the people who have been getting their taxes cut (as well as everyone else along for the ride) just so things get back into equilibrium.

And it also remains to be seen what happens with the Party favored businesses and if they get bailed out as the power of the purse is consolidated into the executive 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Rather in line with what was said above... The ongoing tax cuts for the ultra wealthy holding all the money have induced the extreme levels of debt. If the markets have to take a beating and harm all the people who have been getting their taxes cut (as well as everyone else along for the ride) just so things get back into equilibrium.

And it also remains to be seen what happens with the Party favored businesses and if they get bailed out as the power of the purse is consolidated into the executive 

Well shit... My street-hustle light just came on.

Leon and Bezos are already lined up and they can withstand the storm. We know the auto-makers are gonna fall in line like they always do. Big Farm and Big Pharma have been making us sick for so long, that they probably started this whole Trump Train. Where are the Waltons? They are the front line.

The President is gonna try to line up the Commercial team vs the Fed Board of Directors. The Board has already declared they won't be bullied and don't report to the President. So the President will sell them from the bottom.

Either that or he thinks tariffs by themselves will lead to 'a deal' to refi foreign held debt... (Sounds crazy, but I could see some quid pro quo with China.)

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Posted
On 3/15/2025 at 11:19 AM, Slacks said:

Well shit... My street-hustle light just came on.

Leon and Bezos are already lined up and they can withstand the storm. We know the auto-makers are gonna fall in line like they always do. Big Farm and Big Pharma have been making us sick for so long, that they probably started this whole Trump Train. Where are the Waltons? They are the front line.

The President is gonna try to line up the Commercial team vs the Fed Board of Directors. The Board has already declared they won't be bullied and don't report to the President. So the President will sell them from the bottom.

Either that or he thinks tariffs by themselves will lead to 'a deal' to refi foreign held debt... (Sounds crazy, but I could see some quid pro quo with China.)

I thought less than 25% of our national debt is foreign owned, and only about 2% owned by China. Hardly gonna fix the problem. 

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Posted
17 hours ago, Blotto said:

I thought less than 25% of our national debt is foreign owned, and only about 2% owned by China. Hardly gonna fix the problem. 

We really should be trying to figure a way to shore things up with Japan.  Our debt owned by Japan is far more damaging than that owned by China.  

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Posted (edited)
On 3/15/2025 at 5:19 PM, Slacks said:

Either that or he thinks tariffs by themselves will lead to 'a deal' to refi foreign held debt... (Sounds crazy, but I could see some quid pro quo with China.)

Why would they need to make a direct/private deal to refi existing obligations? As debt comes due they just continue to roll it forward on the public market. Treasury has never needed to do anything else.  All the tariff stuff is just simple and plain national protectionism.

Edited by 52-80
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Posted

Most of the national debt is actually held by the federal government. It's money we owe ourselves. It's how Social Security will cover it's revenue short fall in a few year's if the current tax and benefit numbers aren't adjusted. 

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Posted

Exactly who owns the debt is a fairly meaningless quibble. The bonds are payment obligations. If the bank of japan doesnt get the money its owed, instead of the SS office, or a pension fund, or a private investor, i'd say it's almost equally as bad.

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Posted
1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

Exactly who owns the debt is a fairly meaningless quibble. The bonds are payment obligations. If the bank of japan doesnt get the money its owed, instead of the SS office, or a pension fund, or a private investor, i'd say it's almost equally as bad.

That's not what I'm implying.  I'm simply pointing out ownership, and to be wary of arguments that are reduced down to "FURNERS OWN AMEERICA!!!"  

I agree with your broader point: A missed bond payment is a missed bond payment. And would be very bad. 

Posted

Maybe we should miss a payment, let the market tank, buy it all back on the cheap. Then start making payments again.

US bonds would still be the best relative alternative there is.

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Posted
13 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Maybe we should miss a payment, let the market tank, buy it all back on the cheap. Then start making payments again.

US bonds would still be the best relative alternative there is.

I’m not sure I agree with your detective work there.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

That's not what I'm implying.  I'm simply pointing out ownership, and to be wary of arguments that are reduced down to "FURNERS OWN AMEERICA!!!"  

I agree with your broader point: A missed bond payment is a missed bond payment. And would be very bad. 

The big thing with Japan is that they've had negative rates for so long that the net retiring Japanese citizen actually owns a bunch of US debt via the carry trade.  

-BoJ issues debt, countered by an equivalent purchase of US Treasuries (they actually make money hand over fist on this)

-Japanese citizen has to start liquidating investments to fund retirement, some of their money is tied to US treasuries via BoJ bonds

-BoJ sells Treasuries to raise cash and buy back their own bonds.

 

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Posted (edited)

So anybody have any ideas on betting against companies in the US that might have high exposure to international tourism?  After seeing the lack of internationals at SXSW, and Fortunes report on declining international travel to the US, I think there may be an opportunity here.  But what companies would be hurt most if international travel dropped substantially?

Thanks in advance.

Edited by horn4life
Posted
1 minute ago, horn4life said:

So anybody have any ideas on betting against companies in the US that might have high exposure to international tourism?  After seeing the lack of internationals at SXSW, and Fortunes report on declining international travel to the US, I think there may be an opportunity here.  But what companies would be hurt most if international travel dropped substantially?

Thanks in advance.

With how often ICE and DHS has been black bagging tourists, I would imagine nearly any tourism focused industry will take a ding. That'll have a big drag effect when potential customers are justifiably worried about getting disappeared and thrown into solitary confinement for a week and moved across the country for no reason at all

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Posted
14 minutes ago, Captainant said:

With how often ICE and DHS has been black bagging tourists, I would imagine nearly any tourism focused industry will take a ding. That'll have a big drag effect when potential customers are justifiably worried about getting disappeared and thrown into solitary confinement for a week and moved across the country for no reason at all

That's not why.  I just think that we will become a less and less desirable place for foreigners to spend their money.  I thought there were about 80% fewer internationals on SoCo during SXSW this year.  The fortune article I think may have grossly underestimated the decline.   I view the US much like I view the way the wife and I choose which restaurants we go to.  We choose the places where we like the people, and spend our money there.  

This is going to be one of those things that I do not think will flesh out for a while.  And trying to anticipate BEFORE everyone else figures things out is a very good thing in investing.  

Quote

Research firm Tourism Economics slashed its outlook and now sees a 5.1% decline in visits, flipping from an earlier view for an 8.8% increase. Spending by foreign tourists is expected to tumble 11%, representing a loss of $18 billion this year

I need to so some research on this, but perhaps I can yuse the power of surly combined with my lack of time, and let you guys help me with the research.  have a great day all

 

Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, horn4life said:

That's not why.  I just think that we will become a less and less desirable place for foreigners to spend their money.  I thought there were about 80% fewer internationals on SoCo during SXSW this year.  The fortune article I think may have grossly underestimated the decline.   I view the US much like I view the way the wife and I choose which restaurants we go to.  We choose the places where we like the people, and spend our money there.  

This is going to be one of those things that I do not think will flesh out for a while.  And trying to anticipate BEFORE everyone else figures things out is a very good thing in investing.  

I need to so some research on this, but perhaps I can yuse the power of surly combined with my lack of time, and let you guys help me with the research.  have a great day all

 

Their published report literally makes that claim, and they have a good visual on how the hotel industry is already seeing a 2% ding to bookings:

A mix of sentiment effects will negatively impact international travel to the US. In key origin markets, a situation with polarizing Trump Administration policies and rhetoric, accompanied by economic losses to nationally important industries, small businesses and households, will discourage travel to the US.
Some organizations will feel pressure to avoid hosting events in the US, or sending employees to the US, cutting into business travel. Anecdotal evidence from Tourism Economics clients confirms a growing number of travel cancellations from Canada. Immigration policy enforment activities may also raise concerns among potential travelers, particularly from Mexico, such the process of crossing the border or their safety while in the US.

Edited by Captainant
Posted

@horn4life @Captainant This article from today is focused solely on Canadian visitors and New York, but it does indicate we should expect a slowdown in international tourism.

Some key quotes and figures from the article:

  • Canadians spent $600 million in NYC in 2024 and $1.7 billion across NY state in 2023 (the last year for which state data are available).
  • About 16,000 more Canadians visited NYC in 2024 than in 2019, despite a weak Canadian dollar, showing a recovery from the pandemic.
  • Last month (Feb. 2024), the number of Canadians flying into NYC fell 11 percent.
  • Last month, vehicle traffic crossing around Buffalo had already fallen 14% compared to Feb 2023. To the east, traffic on the Thousand Islands Bridge dropped 19%.
  • The travel agency Flight Centre Travel Group Canada reported a 40 percent decline in leisure travel bookings to the United States in February, compared with the same month last year, as well as an increase in cancellations on previously booked trips.

 

Quote

 

Trump’s Threat to Annex Canada Is Keeping Tourists North of the Border
Among international tourists, only the British visit New York City more than Canadians, who spent $600 million there last year.

More than one million Canadians visited New York City last year, injecting hundreds of millions of dollars into the local economy. Now, they are canceling trips in droves.

School groups have called off end-of-semester trips. So have busloads of retirees, as well as newlyweds planning honeymoons, friends celebrating birthdays and a family from Quebec that had planned to visit twice this year.

Often, the reason cited is President Trump’s escalating hostility toward Canada and repeated threats to make it the 51st state, which has stirred sweeping pledges to boycott American goods and abandon over-the-border vacations to the United States.

The cancellations could inflict damage on the economy in the city, where Canadians spent an estimated $600 million in 2024, and hinder the tourism industry’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

The havoc could also extend statewide. Cities and towns along the border with Canada, for instance, rely on tourism from their northern neighbors who often make same-day shopping trips. Nearly four million Canadians visited New York State in 2023, according to the most recent data available from the state, and spent more than $1.7 billion.

“When you piss off a country and threaten to annex them, they are not going to want to travel here,” said Matt Levy, the owner of the New York City tour guide company, Spread Love Tours, whose business with Canadian groups is on pace to decline 50 percent this year.

More than a dozen high schools from Canada recently informed him that they were canceling their annual trips to the city, he said.

A tour operator in Ottawa, Travac Tours, expected to send 16 coach buses to New York City this year. But none of its customers — mostly retirees who tend to spend generously on restaurants, shopping and Broadway shows — have booked a seat since Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on Canada this month, and the company expects to cancel every trip.

“We love the American people, but we are so anti-America when it comes to finances,” Cindy Tobin, a manager at the company, said her clients have told her. “We are just not going to give them any money.”

Without a quick, amicable resolution, she said, the tourism boycott could extend into next year because many customers will soon start booking their vacations for 2026.

Since taking office in January, Mr. Trump has levied tariffs against Canada — long considered America’s closest ally — and described their shared border as an “artificial line.” Canadian leaders and citizens across the political spectrum have taken his remarks deadly seriously and used them as a rallying call.

Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau explicitly urged Canadians to reconsider international trips. “Now is also the time to choose Canada,” he said.

Even though international tourists made up a small chunk of the estimated 64.3 million people who came to New York City in 2024 — there were 51.3 million domestic visitors — international visitors tend to outspend domestic ones. And among international tourists, only the British visit the city more than Canadians.

Last year, while international tourism to New York City had not yet returned to prepandemic levels, Canadian travelers had: About 16,000 more Canadians visited the city in 2024 than in 2019, despite a weak Canadian dollar.

But last month, compared with the same period in 2024, the number of Canadians flying into the three airports in and around the city fell 11 percent, according to airline passenger data collected by the federal government. Overall, the amount of monthly international air travelers to the area was the lowest since February 2023.

Vehicle traffic over the four international bridges that span the Niagara River near Buffalo and Niagara Falls fell nearly 14 percent in February, compared with the previous year, according to the agencies that operate them. To the east, traffic on the Thousand Islands Bridge dropped 19 percent in February.

The travel agency Flight Centre Travel Group Canada reported a 40 percent decline in leisure travel bookings to the United States in February, compared with the same month last year, as well as an increase in cancellations on previously booked trips.

In recent weeks, Canadians have been noticeably absent from the Ontario Bar, a Brooklyn dive devoted to all things Canada. Labatt Blue is on draft, Moosehead Canadian Lager is available in bottles and a selection of rye whiskies is behind the bar. The mood inside has been somber, said Andrew Benedict, a co-owner.

“They always ask for ketchup chips or comment on the Canadian beers,” he said, “and there’s less of that.”

Ben Renaud, who lives in Quebec, said that his family had planned to make two trips to New York City this year. One would have been this month to celebrate his mother’s 66th birthday, followed by another with his extended family this summer. Not now.

“I have a lot of nice memories in New York and wanted to share that with her,” said Mr. Renaud, 45, who now plans to visit other Canadian provinces and maybe Europe. But, he added, “the word in the country is that the U.S. cannot be treated as an ally and cannot be trusted.”

For New York City, its proximity to major Canadian cities like Toronto and Montreal has made it a popular destination for quick getaways, especially for bus tours. Operators have historically sent multiple buses to New York every week. But bookings have dried up.

In previous years, the operator Comfort Tour Canada drove buses with up to 150 people to the city for spring break. The cost of hotel rooms alone could reach $30,000 for the multiple-day trip. This year, one bus made the journey for spring break, with just 24 passengers.

“Our bookings have gone to zero or one a day,” said Al Qanun, the company’s owner. “It will hurt us, and it will hurt those hotels.”

Businesses and tourism officials in western New York are especially worried. The economies of cities and towns along the border with Ontario and Quebec are particularly integrated with Canada. Up to 20 percent of the tourists to Rochester are Canadian.

Many Canadians drive over the bridges connecting the two countries on day trips for shopping, dining and entertainment. On a recent weekend at the Fashion Outlets of Niagara Falls mall, Nancy Driscoll placed a shopping bag of new clothes into her car with Ontario plates.

She and her partner, Matthew Elliott, said they only drove into New York State, with a stop at the mall, to watch his son’s collegiate hockey game at Hobart and William Smith Colleges in the Finger Lakes region.

Mr. Elliott said that some of the other Canadian parents who had planned to travel to watch their children play had canceled their trips.

“The boycott is real, and it doesn’t matter what happens with tariffs now, it’s not going to be repaired,” Mr. Elliott said, adding: “He pushed too far.”

 

 

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Posted

Britain issues a travel warning for US

https://www.newsweek.com/britain-issues-travel-warning-us-deportations-2047878

The U.S. has a range of entry requirements, including needing an Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) approval for short-term visits under the Visa Waiver Program. Failure to meet these requirements can result in travelers being denied entry, detained, or deported.

British citizens planning trips to the United States are encouraged to regularly check the FCDO website for the latest travel advice and seek guidance if they are unsure about their visa status.

The guidance comes after Rebecca Burke, a 28-year-old U.K. citizen, was detained and deported from the U.S. and returned to the U.K. on March 18, according to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

Burke, a cartoonist, had been backpacking across the United States, sharing her journey on Instagram, where she posted about her stays in Portland and Seattle.

Her father, Paul Burke, voiced concern in a Facebook post, explaining that his daughter had no criminal record and was on her way to Canada when she was denied entry due to an "incorrect visa." She was then refused reentry into the U.S., classified as an "illegal alien," and detained by ICE.

Posted

This feels like the start of the next leg down if the tariffs start getting signed today. Of course with trump he can manipulate however he wants so it's basically a coin flip from one day to the next. Let's see if we close below the 5 day moving average. 

Posted
5 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

This feels like the start of the next leg down if the tariffs start getting signed today. Of course with trump he can manipulate however he wants so it's basically a coin flip from one day to the next. Let's see if we close below the 5 day moving average. 

For a guy who says he doesn’t care about the Market, announcing it after close is not exactly Audie Murphy levels of bravery. 

Posted
4 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

For a guy who says he doesn’t care about the Market, announcing it after close is not exactly Audie Murphy levels of bravery. 

Trump:  “Lets drop the tariff news after the market closes so no one will remember the next day and we don’t get any bad stock news”

Assembled financial advisors:

IMG_3286.gif.88f17fd7d271fb7ef0bcc958c0a1ef41.gif

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Posted

Well shit, what's 613 x 0.9 again...

 

I may have to do a quick day trade if it gets that low today. I think it wont hold at all though. We most likely are going down to the 520s with this next leg down.

Posted
18 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

the market reaction is like clockwork every time he says the word tariff.  i promise you people are doing insider trading shit on this.

Of course. Notice how he got quiet after we hit and moved up from the 10% correction a couple weeks ago. Now that we hit where we were supposed to which was just above the 200 day moving average,  the rhetoric started back up. I will be shocked if we don't see at least a 20% drop from our January highs. Shocked. Next week is going to be absolutely nuts one way or another. My guess is we hit SPY 520 in the next 2 weeks. Then another bounce while the rhetoric dies off. Then back down to 20% bear market. And that's not even counting if we are already in a recession. If the actual numbers start to look bad, hold on to your butts. 

Posted
On 3/24/2025 at 4:41 PM, 52-80 said:

Nice little rally since i was on a minication. Correlation is not causation but maybe i should go on more minications

 

your vacations suck apparently. 

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Posted

Getting out of the market is one method to not worry so much.

I know the conventional wisdom is that you shouldn't attempt to time the market but when there are limited reasons to think your investments will go, the smart thing is to sit out. And just because you missed out on selling at the top, that isn't a reason to stay the downward trajectory.

I do think there is a decent chance that Trump pauses some of the tariffs next week but will announce new ones.

Posted

]

19 minutes ago, Orale said:

Novice investor question. Are money market accounts and short term CDs the best option for low/no risk investing in crazy times like this?

4.3% in a vanguard mm account seems pretty good right now. The question is, will you be able to get back in when rates go down to 0.5%, all hell is breaking loose and every article you read says it's going to keep going lower. Because that shit turns on a dime and doesn't come back once it starts going back up. There are no do overs. No retests of that low. 

Posted

"Best" is a very loaded term.  They are very low-risk investments in a volatile market, which makes a lot of sense.  You won't lose capital, most likely, and will get some return.

The risk is that in this inflationary, low-interest rate environment, the returns don't keep up with inflation, meaning you do lose a little money, when inflation adjusted, or buying power, if you prefer.

There's not a whole lot of other low-risk options, though.

Posted
1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What’s your goal? Investment or capital protection?

Definitely capital protection for the time being. But I would like my nest egg to keep up with inflation while I become comfortable with the basics of investing and wait for this volatility to hopefully subside.  

Posted
11 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

Q1 GDP est down to -2.8 from -1.8 previous estimate. I still don't understand this gold adjustment bs (-0.5).  But admittedly I havent tried to. I assume it's still not good. 

Apparently, some Americans are importing a fuck load of gold, purely for investment, not production, so it gets excluded from GDP. $31B in gold imports in January, up from $1.7B monthly average in 2022 and 2023. I think the main motivation is the assumption that Trump will tariff precious metals too, but it could also be concerns about the dollar. In general, not a great sign for us plebeians.

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