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Posted
14 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Personally I dgaf about today’s stock valuations. Yes, this admin and their policies and actions are beyond fucking stupid. But I’m not a day trader and not selling any time soon. This month I get to buy cheap. 

People don't get to "buy cheap" unless they (a) have significant disposable income or (b) have divested into cash and have dry powder to spare.  Neither describes the average American.

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Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

People don't get to "buy cheap" unless they (a) have significant disposable income or (b) have divested into cash and have dry powder to spare.  Neither describes the average American.

Sure they do. Monthly 401k contributions. 

Posted
Just now, tbone_ said:

Sure they do. Monthly 401k contributions. 

That's the income side of it.  Buying into a declining market might not be the most effective plan, though.

I know, I know, long term buy and hold yada yada yada.  It's all market timing.

Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's all market timing.

Respectfully disagree. I believe the research says differently. In fact I think it says the exact opposite of your statement. 

Edited by tbone_
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Posted
Just now, tbone_ said:

Respectfully disagree. I believe the research says differently. 

It absolutely does not.  Buy and hold, monthly contributions, it's all market timing.  Simplistic?  Yes.  Not market timing?  Not in the least.

I'll say this:  if your monthly contributions are a small fraction of your 401K, then you absolutely should not be rooting for your 401K to drop 20% because "buying opportunity".  That's fucking lunacy.

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Posted

I don’t think it is. If you believe the overall trajectory of being long the us economy, as I do, then short term corrections just mean I buy cheaper shares this month.

 

If you believe the market is going down 20% to stay for good, then yea I’d agree with you. But I don’t believe that. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, txduck87 said:


Disagree . Was covid normal ? Was giving no doc loans to people for mortgages normal? Was ww2 normal ? The market typically trades in a certain P/E ratio range and it got overextended. It WILL revert to that in the future. Will it go below that average or just flounder a bit like the lost decade to let earnings catch up to the multiple? No clue.

If a 10-20% correction scares/worries you, you should just stay in Treasuries. They happen regularly and often.

Yeah. But for me the cool thing about this correction is it was entirely made by one man, after hours yesterday.  And THAT is what makes it not normal. Can you really not see this?

The fantastic fucking thng for me is that this was very easy to see coming.  You can make a shit ton of money in this environment.  It's just not betting long right now.  Predictable tariff stupidity.  My UVIX is up 40% today for example.   

While market moves and corrections are indeed normal.  This was the proud work of a man, and THAT is NOT fucking normal.  While it would make me a killing, I just pray this push downward is at least somewhat muted in Asia and Europe tomorrow.  If not, that could roll back around and cascade more downward pressure into US markets for another dose of US Economy the game Friday morning...

Normal... wow...

 

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Posted
43 minutes ago, txduck87 said:


Maybe. Who knows. Certainly know I ain’t smart enough to call short term. But I do like my odds LONG term. cfdb1385210e7288cd93010191e39cac.jpg

while that is true, if your horizon is 30 years - I can also argue that 1999 - 2013 was a zero return time period (there are other periods and exchanges that are similar) 
that said I did buy some BRK.b today, and have funds set aside for future purchases (whether it is when Uncle Warren dies, or other opportunities present themselves)

And here is why - I could go longer but it just favors Warren even more

Screenshot2025-04-03150938.thumb.jpg.245681a99afd168680eac18bc0bb4d9c.jpg

Posted
RIP Berkshire holders

Right?!?

If Wallys buying we should be shorting. LOL.

Seriously though, Wally knows that they’re sitting on a ton of cash waiting for moments like these. Not a bad idea.
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Posted
while that is true, if your horizon is 30 years - I can also argue that 1999 - 2013 was a zero return time period (there are other periods and exchanges that are similar) 
that said I did buy some BRK.b today, and have funds set aside for future purchases (whether it is when Uncle Warren dies, or other opportunities present themselves)
And here is why - I could go longer but it just favors Warren even more
Screenshot2025-04-03150938.thumb.jpg.245681a99afd168680eac18bc0bb4d9c.jpg

Yep. Agree. 1999-2013 was brutal. But then the market caught up to fundamentals (corporate earnings ) and away we went.

That is why you invest early and often(spend less than you make), consistently invest over time, and hold an age appropriate asset allocation for 35 years. Guarantee you will have “enough”. Sleep well guys. It’s all gonna be ok.
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Posted
1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

while that is true, if your horizon is 30 years - I can also argue that 1999 - 2013 was a zero return time period (there are other periods and exchanges that are similar) 
that said I did buy some BRK.b today, and have funds set aside for future purchases (whether it is when Uncle Warren dies, or other opportunities present themselves)

Whats ole Warren got cookin' that resulted in his performance deviating from the S&P so drastically the last couple of months? The 3 year chart below shows BRK.A and SPY pretty much tracking and jockeying for the lead for the first 34 months and then BRK.A just dominates the last two?

image.thumb.png.2250708be538b927c8a0081aa92fe7e1.png

His three largest holdings are AAPL(28%), AXP (17%), and BAC(11%).  YTD their returns are AAPL-19%, BAC -13.5%, and AXP -13%. YTD the S&P is only down 9%, so why the hell is the BRK.A outperforming SPX so drastically of late? Are people piling into his funds out of fear so much so that it is distorting the overall performance of Berkshires's holdings? Something seems kind of fucky about that. My instincts would be that this divergence will correct itself eventually, but perhaps not. Like I said, I dont usually pay much attention to BRK.A/B

Posted
11 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Whats ole Warren got cookin' that resulted in his performance deviating from the S&P so drastically the last couple of months? The 3 year chart below shows BRK.A and SPY pretty much tracking and jockeying for the lead for the first 34 months and then BRK.A just dominates the last two?

image.thumb.png.2250708be538b927c8a0081aa92fe7e1.png

His three largest holdings are AAPL(28%), AXP (17%), and BAC(11%).  YTD their returns are AAPL-19%, BAC -13.5%, and AXP -13%. YTD the S&P is only down 9%, so why the hell is the BRK.A outperforming SPX so drastically of late? Are people piling into his funds out of fear so much so that it is distorting the overall performance of Berkshires's holdings? Something seems kind of fucky about that. My instincts would be that this divergence will correct itself eventually, but perhaps not. Like I said, I dont usually pay much attention to BRK.A/B

Maybe a little to do with this. 
 

IMG_5967.thumb.jpeg.7757bd7eed2f7005fe65b14a4e08c83b.jpeg
 

And that’s as of Q3 2024. I remember reading he just kept selling. People were making fun of him for it…

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Posted
15 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Whats ole Warren got cookin' that resulted in his performance deviating from the S&P so drastically the last couple of months? The 3 year chart below shows BRK.A and SPY pretty much tracking and jockeying for the lead for the first 34 months and then BRK.A just dominates the last two?

image.thumb.png.2250708be538b927c8a0081aa92fe7e1.png

His three largest holdings are AAPL(28%), AXP (17%), and BAC(11%).  YTD their returns are AAPL-19%, BAC -13.5%, and AXP -13%. YTD the S&P is only down 9%, so why the hell is the BRK.A outperforming SPX so drastically of late? Are people piling into his funds out of fear so much so that it is distorting the overall performance of Berkshires's holdings? Something seems kind of fucky about that. My instincts would be that this divergence will correct itself eventually, but perhaps not. Like I said, I dont usually pay much attention to BRK.A/B

Those are the 3 largest investment holdings, excluding treasuries. But the wholly owned companies far exceed the investments.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Anyone shrugging today off as no big deal and celebrating that they will buy $1000 with next weeks 401k contribution, either doesn’t have much invested or their head is in the sand.

or they has everything in PM or KO.

Or they understand the market. Hedge funds were selling oven the past year, while retail was buying. Markets were going up on low volume because big money wasn’t buying, they were selling. This “correction” was going to happen one way or another, because big money wanted back in, cheap. I doubt they anticipated this steep of a drop but I can promise you it’s making them smile, just like the run back up will after retail has panic sold their shares back to the deep pockets. Then retail will buy near the top again. Rinse, repeat.

Posted
1 minute ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

Or they understand the market. Hedge funds were selling oven the past year, while retail was buying. Markets were going up on low volume because big money wasn’t buying, they were selling. This “correction” was going to happen one way or another, because big money wanted back in, cheap. I doubt they anticipated this steep of a drop but I can promise you it’s making them smile, just like the run back up will after retail has panic sold their shares back to the deep pockets. Then retail will buy near the top again. Rinse, repeat.

Lol this is just so wrong on so many levels it's impossible to even reply to seriously. 

Was there always a correction coming? Sure. This is not a stock market correction, it's an entire recalibration of a global investment strategy which is primarily going to be driven by "don't invest in America, they are batshit". It cannot be understated how absolutely insane what happened yesterday is and will continue to be when the ripple effect begins. This is just the first wave. 

I saw somewhere, this is worse than anyone had on their worse case scenario bingo card for what was going to be announced, by a fairly wide margin. 

There's multiple primary effects that come from it, but the secondary and tertiary effects are going to be big and not good. 

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Posted
9 minutes ago, immamac said:

Lol this is just so wrong on so many levels it's impossible to even reply to seriously. 

Was there always a correction coming? Sure. This is not a stock market correction, it's an entire recalibration of a global investment strategy which is primarily going to be driven by "don't invest in America, they are batshit". It cannot be understated how absolutely insane what happened yesterday is and will continue to be when the ripple effect begins. This is just the first wave. 

I saw somewhere, this is worse than anyone had on their worse case scenario bingo card for what was going to be announced, by a fairly wide margin. 

There's multiple primary effects that come from it, but the secondary and tertiary effects are going to be big and not good. 

You basically supported what I said, just with your emotions on full display, which is exactly what big money wants. The lower it goes, the happier they will be. 
 

They will or let their casino go under. They are the house.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

You basically supported what I said, just with your emotions on full display, which is exactly what big money wants. The lower it goes, the happier they will be. 
 

They will or let their casino go under. They are the house.

That casino analogy hits a little close to home when you consider the current occupant of the White House’s history in that arena.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

You basically supported what I said, just with your emotions on full display, which is exactly what big money wants. The lower it goes, the happier they will be. 
 

They will or let their casino go under. They are the house.

No I didn't, and the post wasn't emotional. The significance cannot be understated and it's not a power dynamic between retail investors and hedge funds/mega funds on who is gonna catch the upswing of a secondary market. This impacts the primary market and intrinsic value and revenue of nearly every single company on earth, not just a few in a sector here and there. 

 

Posted
5 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

- All Nikkei/Japan longs, July 1990

Goddamnit--that was exactly what my comment was going to be.  For those interested, here is the Nikkei historical chart:

image.png.7fa8c30e99491d5bd62bc34c582e0457.png

Posted
Just now, immamac said:

No I didn't, and the post wasn't emotional. The significance cannot be understated and it's not a power dynamic between retail investors and hedge funds/mega funds on who is gonna catch the upswing of a secondary market. This impacts the primary market and intrinsic value and revenue of nearly every single company on earth, not just a few in a sector here and there. 

 

So did COVID…

IMG_5968.thumb.jpeg.67a2586c86205b506084e665a3d2768f.jpeg

Let’s revisit in 5 years.

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Posted

I think trump caves around a 20% drop and scores 1% "victories" with most countries stating how awesome he is to get the deal done. Question is if the damage done tips us into a recession or not. 20% drop will be a big deal. I also think lowering rates is a big deal for trump in addition to the tariffs. So maybe he let's it go further. The last time he did this the market dropped 20% then corrected back. 

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Posted
Just now, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

So did COVID…

IMG_5968.thumb.jpeg.67a2586c86205b506084e665a3d2768f.jpeg

Let’s revisit in 5 years.

Except the person now steering our country's economic direction is doing everything literally the opposite of what we did to recover from COVID. 

Posted
I think trump caves around a 20% drop and scores 1% "victories" with most countries stating how awesome he is to get the deal done. Question is if the damage done tips us into a recession or not. 20% drop will be a big deal. I also think lowering rates is a big deal for trump in addition to the tariffs. So maybe he let's it go further. The last time he did this the market dropped 20% then corrected back. 

No. No. The world is ending. Cause Trump.
Posted
1 minute ago, Captainant said:

Except the person now steering our country's economic direction is doing everything literally the opposite of what we did to recover from COVID. 

While the current administration tatics are mind bottling, using the strategies to recover from Covid is not the intellectual rebuttal you think it is.

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Posted
Except the person now steering our country's economic direction is doing everything literally the opposite of what we did to recover from COVID. 

You must be thrilled. It’s the end of capitalism as we know it.
Right Comrade?
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, TxTower said:


You must be thrilled. It’s the end of capitalism as we know it.
Right Comrade?

Yes now we can finally just pick winners and losers, as the Almighty Free Market intended. It's so great to be beholden to infinite growth goals

Edited by Captainant
Posted

Let me explain something. And this is very fucking simple.  The historical models and charts do not apply. Period.

Once you understand that you will realize that the market crash today was not a big deal to this White House.  What would have been a HUGE fuckng deal was if Trump had given his speech before closing and you could see the markets falling.  That would was the only actual concern about anything yesterday. 

And if you think you can plug that kind of psychosis into some stock charts, you are as fucking looney as our President. So please, please , please... stop putting up historical charts that do not have any factoring in of the stupidity we are inflicting purposefully on ourselves.

 

 

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Posted

Right now I’m feeling pretty good about revising my investments completely in January to put most of my Equity in international funds.  Usually I am about 80/20 on my portfolio but in January I went to a 35 percent domestic value equity, 25 percent bond and cash, and 40 percent international equity portfolio.  
 

Today my portfolio dropped 0.8 percent.  That felt a little less bad than I expected.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Those are the 3 largest investment holdings, excluding treasuries. But the wholly owned companies far exceed the investments.

This. Berkshire Hathaway is mostly an insurance company, followed by a diverse collection of wholly owned companies, that followed by a probably less diverse collection of public shares in companies.

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Posted
29 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Let me explain something. And this is very fucking simple.  The historical models and charts do not apply. Period.

Once you understand that you will realize that the market crash today was not a big deal to this White House.  What would have been a HUGE fuckng deal was if Trump had given his speech before closing and you could see the markets falling.  That would was the only actual concern about anything yesterday. 

And if you think you can plug that kind of psychosis into some stock charts, you are as fucking looney as our President. So please, please , please... stop putting up historical charts that do not have any factoring in of the stupidity we are inflicting purposefully on ourselves.

 

 

First of all, the markets don’t really “close” at 4:00 pm anymore. Anyone who trades was watching it fall and why the trade volume was higher after 4:00 than any other time period that day. I’m in Asia so the timing below is a 12 hour difference. Volume bars are the light gray.

IMG_5962.thumb.jpeg.5a2667740889a6bd8ba35927e32b5c38.jpeg
 

I watched the tape live as someone was selling millions of shares at a time before he even started talking. Then a mass push down, that wasn’t retail, as soon as the chart was brought out. They had their fear generating moment to kick off the panic sells. 

”It’s different this time” is always the narrative. It’s always different, but always the same. The market may experience an unprecedented drop and sharp rebound. It may trade sideways for years, we don’t know.

What I do know is that once the market makers determine they have scared all the shares they can out of retail, they will begin buying to the upside again, so they can continue to grow their wealth. Once they have all the shares they want, the market hype will return as they sell their shares to us before the next “unprecedented” event.
 

I didn’t come in here to argue politics. I trade and I invest. I have a pretty good understanding of the psychology of the markets based on years of study, both real time and through books. I came in here to share information so maybe you guys can take advantage of any upcoming opportunity, too.

“A quote from Mark Twain, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme,” is a familiar piece of wisdom that stock market investors use when confronted with taking a “this time is different” approach.” As quoted by many stock pubs.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

image.thumb.jpeg.524d7f1695a995b57b13805794a3cbcf.jpeg

JP Morgan's chief economist Bruce Kasman seems to think this might not be a normal correction.

 

That’s why I quoted “correction” earlier. Some are calling it that but it could be much bigger. Either way, so far the market only dropped to where it was last August or so. In the grand scheme it’s not a big deal, yet.

Posted

Anybody else move their retirement funds in time?

I moved everything to GLD and SGOV in early March. Since the , I’m up 7%. Only lost 0.6% on GLD today. It’ll probably be a strong green tomorrow.

I won’t profess to knowing much about timing stock picks but around that time I saw how GLD performed in other crashes and figured it was a safe decision.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Anybody else move their retirement funds in time?

I moved everything to GLD and SGOV in early March. Since the , I’m up 7%. Only lost 0.6% on GLD today. It’ll probably be a strong green tomorrow.

I won’t profess to knowing much about timing stock picks but around that time I saw how GLD performed in other crashes and figured it was a safe decision.

I moved 60% of my retirement fund to cash in NOV-DEC. Sold all of my kid’s ETFs at the same time.

I listened to my gut and the evidence this time. I had the same feeling in Jan 2022, but didn’t listen. Now comes the other half of the decision, when to buy back in…

I’m going to start nibbling a little on the indexes as they drop; bought a very small amount today. I’ll use volume to determine when to load up. Even if I get in early, I’m already in significantly cheaper than I sold and I’m not tapping into it anytime soon.

 

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Posted
5 hours ago, txduck87 said:

. Guarantee you will have “enough”. Sleep well guys. It’s all gonna be ok.

I don’t think that Canadians will be restocking American bourbon for the next generation.  Going to economic war with the entire world when the entire world still has a lot of issues with you can wind up giving longer-term consequences than you can imagine. 

Telling your closest friend that you’re going to take over their fucking country is not the way to make buddies.   The world has seen who we are. And I don’t think they like what they are seeing.   Trading with us when they have to is far different than trading with us because they want to. 

China probably needs to go see the ER doctor because of that more than four hour erection they’re having since yesterday.

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Posted
4 hours ago, TxTower said:


No. No. The world is ending. Cause Trump.

 

4 hours ago, TxTower said:


You must be thrilled. It’s the end of capitalism as we know it.
Right Comrade?

Hush, grown people are talking about the markets. 

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Posted
18 minutes ago, bluto said:

Pre market and overseas were/are a bloodbath again 

Yeah -  at 5 am dow down 580, by 5:30 it was pushing down 800, at roughly 6 am.  right at 1100 down...   So yeah bloodbath.  

Posted

As long as Trump has been in the bully game, you would have thought he would have leaned to isolate and pick on one at a time instead of surrendering your size advantage to try it with everyone at once. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, bluto said:

Pre market and overseas were/are a bloodbath again 

Probably because China announced 34% retaliatory tariffs on American goods

Are we feeling like we've made America wealthy again yet???

 

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